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Analysis from the Tampa Bay coaches film

Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Originally posted by Bluesbro:
NCommand, regarding post #291. This was too glaring of a misread, and I disagree with the play design argument. Crabtree was in the pattern, a viable receiver in Kaep's view, with no one wearing pewter pants the same area code. It would be one thing if Boldin was single covered ... that is always a good thing to try. But he was doubled with a player underneath. This was a bad choice.


Receivers are missed all the time...by Brady, P Manning, Brees...and Kaepernick. Pointing out one play seems very non-productive. I am more interested in Crabtree's reaction. Is he now going to sulk because he isn't the primary receiver on every play as he was last season? CK locked onto him and that's one reason the 9ers lost the Super Bowl. It's not all on CK but the lack of viable options other than VD and Crabtree in that game. Crabtree has to accept Boldin, VD and others sharing the ball this year, which means fewer targets for him. If he wants more targets he will have to go to another team, using a passing offense...would be ironic if he chose KC when his contract is up. LOL!

Agreed. And while you mull over Crabtree's fit on the field and isubsequent potential fustrations in the near future, I'll also focus on WHY we didn't come back to this play later and exploit this mimatch by making Crabtree the AR1 this time or coaching/instructions to alert CK to expect Crabtree to break open first in a PS play.
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Originally posted by Bluesbro:
NCommand, regarding post #291. This was too glaring of a misread, and I disagree with the play design argument. Crabtree was in the pattern, a viable receiver in Kaep's view, with no one wearing pewter pants the same area code. It would be one thing if Boldin was single covered ... that is always a good thing to try. But he was doubled with a player underneath. This was a bad choice.

Receivers are missed all the time...by Brady, P Manning, Brees...and Kaepernick. Pointing out one play seems very non-productive. I am more interested in Crabtree's reaction. Is he now going to sulk because he isn't the primary receiver on every play as he was last season? CK locked onto him and that's one reason the 9ers lost the Super Bowl. It's not all on CK but the lack of viable options other than VD and Crabtree in that game. Crabtree has to accept Boldin, VD and others sharing the ball this year, which means fewer targets for him. If he wants more targets he will have to go to another team, using a passing offense...would be ironic if he chose KC when his contract is up. LOL!

Be honest ... do you think any of these QB's would have missed Crabtree on that play? And it is not 'non-productive', but more indicative of critiques that are made of Kaepernick at this stage. I have hope he will keep progressing.
So, I've gone through a lot of Falcons game film. There are a lot of things the Falcons do well, but, they have definitely missed Julio Jones. Defenses play them much differently without Julio. He really made the offense click. That, and their running offense was different than it is with Jackson. With Michael Turner they were much more of a power running game, with a lot of trap, power and dives with occasional zone runs. Last year in the NFCCG they ran a lot more traps and power against us.

This year they are much more of a zone running scheme. They're running game is a lot like the Buc's, the difference is the runner. Barney for the Buc's was a much more, "find the open space" runner who has good burst through the hole. Jackson uses the zone run to set up guys trying to arm tackle, he then runs with his heavy frame into the defense. He looks to run through arm tackles, not run people over most of the time. This is why the Falcons use the zone run scheme with him. When their offense is on schedule, it's very effective. Jackson is still a good RB. It's going to be on McDonald and Justin Smith to hold down the O-lineman to allow for Bow and Willis to hit Jackson head on. I see the Falcons trying to go 3 WR to run the ball.

Last year when we played them, Willis got the majority of the duties in covering Gonzales. Mainly, because Willis is more physical in his coverage, while Bowman is a better change of direction type of coverage player. So, they would use Willis in coverage on Gonzales, while Bowman would lurk the middle of the field. Plus, Gonzales get's so physical with the defender, that trying to use your quickness against him doesn't work.

Last year, we ran a lot of man coverage, but when we went zone, they primarily targeted Roddy White. The same holds true this year. When the opposing team goes zone coverage they like to use White's large frame to run over the middle. If we go zone, I see us running a lot of cover 3 to take away the middle of the field. When we run man, expect Whitner to give Willis inside help from the safety spot on Gonzales. This year when teams run man coverage they look for Gonzales.

I also see them flexing Gonzales out to Aldon's side from a 2 TE set a lot and trying to hit some flood routes towards Gonzales with Jackson as the flat receiver. This means Reid is gonna have to strap it on this week. He'll probably be asked to take on Jackson in the open field in the flat.

I don't see us hardly blitzing them this week. The biggest weakness for the Falcons this year has been their offensive line by far. They are not playing well at all. Brian Orakpo absolutely manhandled every member of that offensive line in the last game at some point. They have also given up consistent pressure vs. just about every front they've played. This is a team that is still trying to figure out it's identity. They knew who they were last year, but this year, with the loss of Julio Jones and with the change in running scheme, they haven't adapted well to how defenses are now playing them differently.

That's how I see us attacking them from the defensive side of the ball.

From the Offensive side, I see us, first, attacking their D-ends. Their D-tackles are very active. Babineaux in particular. I see us running a lot of sweep's and D-end traps. Also, using James like we did against the Buc's to attack the edges, especially to Dunta Robinson's side. Dunta Robinson has been burned that last few weeks trying to be overly aggressive in run support from his corner position. I see us hitting the edges early in the run game to set up a corner or wheel route with Vernon against Robinson(usually plays the right side corner) early in the 2nd quarter(probably by our 3rd possession) off of PA.

Mike Nolan loves to use multiple fronts to make life harder on the O-line. I have seen them run a multitude of fronts, 3-4, 4-3 over, 4-3 under, 4-3 even, 6-2, 3-4 over, 2-4, 3-3-5. They love to show a lot of different fronts. This requires smart, active DT's to pull off. Last year, they started out with a lot of man coverage on 1st and 2nd down and usually an exotic zone blitz on 3rd down. When we started running the ball more effectively, the LB's started to play more forward aggressive. When that happened we started to hit Vernon matched up against either a S or a LB on some crossing/wheel routes. Then, they went to more of a zone coverage, which is when we started to hit Crabtree in the zones more. When playing man, ATL likes to play off coverage with the corners. There were 3 times last year when Kaep saw this and pulled the ball up on a running play and threw it to Crabtree(you could see by the O-line and RB's it was clearly a running play called) I see ATL this year trying to play more press zone at the beginning of the game. Look for us to try and hit Crab's on some crossing patterns in the game as well as some designed plays to get Boldin the ball in space with some blockers against the zone. DeCoud is quicker than fast and not a great tackler so I see him as the guy they try and get Boldin the ball against in open space.

Overall, I see us winning this game. We're probably not going to have a point total to reflect how well we'll dominate this game. We're going to win the TOP by a wide margin and probably put up 24-27 points. I don't see our defense giving up more than 13 points against them.

That's how I see us attacking them on defense. Prob
Originally posted by Bluesbro:
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Originally posted by Bluesbro:
NCommand, regarding post #291. This was too glaring of a misread, and I disagree with the play design argument. Crabtree was in the pattern, a viable receiver in Kaep's view, with no one wearing pewter pants the same area code. It would be one thing if Boldin was single covered ... that is always a good thing to try. But he was doubled with a player underneath. This was a bad choice.

Receivers are missed all the time...by Brady, P Manning, Brees...and Kaepernick. Pointing out one play seems very non-productive. I am more interested in Crabtree's reaction. Is he now going to sulk because he isn't the primary receiver on every play as he was last season? CK locked onto him and that's one reason the 9ers lost the Super Bowl. It's not all on CK but the lack of viable options other than VD and Crabtree in that game. Crabtree has to accept Boldin, VD and others sharing the ball this year, which means fewer targets for him. If he wants more targets he will have to go to another team, using a passing offense...would be ironic if he chose KC when his contract is up. LOL!

Be honest ... do you think any of these QB's would have missed Crabtree on that play? And it is not 'non-productive', but more indicative of critiques that are made of Kaepernick at this stage. I have hope he will keep progressing.

I really don't know! Brees has much better field vision, as does P Manning and Brady, but they still miss wide open guys depending on the time they have and view being blocked. Brees, in particular, has to move to see the field. If his line doesn't chop the DLinemen he is a gnome among the trees!
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Originally posted by Bluesbro:
NCommand, regarding post #291. This was too glaring of a misread, and I disagree with the play design argument. Crabtree was in the pattern, a viable receiver in Kaep's view, with no one wearing pewter pants the same area code. It would be one thing if Boldin was single covered ... that is always a good thing to try. But he was doubled with a player underneath. This was a bad choice.

Receivers are missed all the time...by Brady, P Manning, Brees...and Kaepernick. Pointing out one play seems very non-productive. I am more interested in Crabtree's reaction. Is he now going to sulk because he isn't the primary receiver on every play as he was last season? CK locked onto him and that's one reason the 9ers lost the Super Bowl. It's not all on CK but the lack of viable options other than VD and Crabtree in that game. Crabtree has to accept Boldin, VD and others sharing the ball this year, which means fewer targets for him. If he wants more targets he will have to go to another team, using a passing offense...would be ironic if he chose KC when his contract is up. LOL!

Agreed. And while you mull over Crabtree's fit on the field and isubsequent potential fustrations in the near future, I'll also focus on WHY we didn't come back to this play later and exploit this mimatch by making Crabtree the AR1 this time or coaching/instructions to alert CK to expect Crabtree to break open first in a PS play.

Also remember that, while Roman certainly saw that, the Buc's certainly saw it too. I'm sure, just like our guys did, they alerted them to the blown coverage from that formation. You usually only get one shot at a busted coverage like that in a game. That's why you have to mix up your formations that you run certain plays from. But, that kind of play, you can only really run out of a bunch formation.
Originally posted by jonnydel:
Also remember that, while Roman certainly saw that, the Buc's certainly saw it too. I'm sure, just like our guys did, they alerted them to the blown coverage from that formation. You usually only get one shot at a busted coverage like that in a game. That's why you have to mix up your formations that you run certain plays from. But, that kind of play, you can only really run out of a bunch formation.

And when the WR makes it obvious, the D will be even more on notice. I thought Crabtree was over this aspect of his immaturity and am somewhat disappointed.
Originally posted by jonnydel:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Originally posted by Bluesbro:
NCommand, regarding post #291. This was too glaring of a misread, and I disagree with the play design argument. Crabtree was in the pattern, a viable receiver in Kaep's view, with no one wearing pewter pants the same area code. It would be one thing if Boldin was single covered ... that is always a good thing to try. But he was doubled with a player underneath. This was a bad choice.

Receivers are missed all the time...by Brady, P Manning, Brees...and Kaepernick. Pointing out one play seems very non-productive. I am more interested in Crabtree's reaction. Is he now going to sulk because he isn't the primary receiver on every play as he was last season? CK locked onto him and that's one reason the 9ers lost the Super Bowl. It's not all on CK but the lack of viable options other than VD and Crabtree in that game. Crabtree has to accept Boldin, VD and others sharing the ball this year, which means fewer targets for him. If he wants more targets he will have to go to another team, using a passing offense...would be ironic if he chose KC when his contract is up. LOL!

Agreed. And while you mull over Crabtree's fit on the field and isubsequent potential fustrations in the near future, I'll also focus on WHY we didn't come back to this play later and exploit this mimatch by making Crabtree the AR1 this time or coaching/instructions to alert CK to expect Crabtree to break open first in a PS play.

Also remember that, while Roman certainly saw that, the Buc's certainly saw it too. I'm sure, just like our guys did, they alerted them to the blown coverage from that formation. You usually only get one shot at a busted coverage like that in a game. That's why you have to mix up your formations that you run certain plays from. But, that kind of play, you can only really run out of a bunch formation.

I agree with you Jonny. That said, I'd take my chances later and make it a PS design where CK can target either option (or even VD deeper)...I'd esp. take my chances with Crabtree the primary look too as coming across the middle out of that bunch formation, could be a win every time. I like the design a lot.
Originally posted by jonnydel:
So, I've gone through a lot of Falcons game film. There are a lot of things the Falcons do well, but, they have definitely missed Julio Jones. Defenses play them much differently without Julio. He really made the offense click. That, and their running offense was different than it is with Jackson. With Michael Turner they were much more of a power running game, with a lot of trap, power and dives with occasional zone runs. Last year in the NFCCG they ran a lot more traps and power against us.

This year they are much more of a zone running scheme. They're running game is a lot like the Buc's, the difference is the runner. Barney for the Buc's was a much more, "find the open space" runner who has good burst through the hole. Jackson uses the zone run to set up guys trying to arm tackle, he then runs with his heavy frame into the defense. He looks to run through arm tackles, not run people over most of the time. This is why the Falcons use the zone run scheme with him. When their offense is on schedule, it's very effective. Jackson is still a good RB. It's going to be on McDonald and Justin Smith to hold down the O-lineman to allow for Bow and Willis to hit Jackson head on. I see the Falcons trying to go 3 WR to run the ball.

Last year when we played them, Willis got the majority of the duties in covering Gonzales. Mainly, because Willis is more physical in his coverage, while Bowman is a better change of direction type of coverage player. So, they would use Willis in coverage on Gonzales, while Bowman would lurk the middle of the field. Plus, Gonzales get's so physical with the defender, that trying to use your quickness against him doesn't work.

Last year, we ran a lot of man coverage, but when we went zone, they primarily targeted Roddy White. The same holds true this year. When the opposing team goes zone coverage they like to use White's large frame to run over the middle. If we go zone, I see us running a lot of cover 3 to take away the middle of the field. When we run man, expect Whitner to give Willis inside help from the safety spot on Gonzales. This year when teams run man coverage they look for Gonzales.

I also see them flexing Gonzales out to Aldon's side from a 2 TE set a lot and trying to hit some flood routes towards Gonzales with Jackson as the flat receiver. This means Reid is gonna have to strap it on this week. He'll probably be asked to take on Jackson in the open field in the flat.

I don't see us hardly blitzing them this week. The biggest weakness for the Falcons this year has been their offensive line by far. They are not playing well at all. Brian Orakpo absolutely manhandled every member of that offensive line in the last game at some point. They have also given up consistent pressure vs. just about every front they've played. This is a team that is still trying to figure out it's identity. They knew who they were last year, but this year, with the loss of Julio Jones and with the change in running scheme, they haven't adapted well to how defenses are now playing them differently.

That's how I see us attacking them from the defensive side of the ball.

From the Offensive side, I see us, first, attacking their D-ends. Their D-tackles are very active. Babineaux in particular. I see us running a lot of sweep's and D-end traps. Also, using James like we did against the Buc's to attack the edges, especially to Dunta Robinson's side. Dunta Robinson has been burned that last few weeks trying to be overly aggressive in run support from his corner position. I see us hitting the edges early in the run game to set up a corner or wheel route with Vernon against Robinson(usually plays the right side corner) early in the 2nd quarter(probably by our 3rd possession) off of PA.

Mike Nolan loves to use multiple fronts to make life harder on the O-line. I have seen them run a multitude of fronts, 3-4, 4-3 over, 4-3 under, 4-3 even, 6-2, 3-4 over, 2-4, 3-3-5. They love to show a lot of different fronts. This requires smart, active DT's to pull off. Last year, they started out with a lot of man coverage on 1st and 2nd down and usually an exotic zone blitz on 3rd down. When we started running the ball more effectively, the LB's started to play more forward aggressive. When that happened we started to hit Vernon matched up against either a S or a LB on some crossing/wheel routes. Then, they went to more of a zone coverage, which is when we started to hit Crabtree in the zones more. When playing man, ATL likes to play off coverage with the corners. There were 3 times last year when Kaep saw this and pulled the ball up on a running play and threw it to Crabtree(you could see by the O-line and RB's it was clearly a running play called) I see ATL this year trying to play more press zone at the beginning of the game. Look for us to try and hit Crab's on some crossing patterns in the game as well as some designed plays to get Boldin the ball in space with some blockers against the zone. DeCoud is quicker than fast and not a great tackler so I see him as the guy they try and get Boldin the ball against in open space.

Overall, I see us winning this game. We're probably not going to have a point total to reflect how well we'll dominate this game. We're going to win the TOP by a wide margin and probably put up 24-27 points. I don't see our defense giving up more than 13 points against them.

That's how I see us attacking them on defense. Prob

Fantastic work Jonny...bumping for all!
I wonder--sometimes, when you are teaching someone a new set of skills, the student regresses in the instinctive aspects of the job. Seems CK may be trying to see progressions in a certain way that is new to him and it causes him to miss some pretty obvious opportunities. Not a rare thing in any learning environment and learning the NFL QB position would be pretty daunting! You never know how long it will take for that student to master the nuances and become fluid...a year, a day...

Could that explain your AR theory NC? They're telling him to look at the obvious guy first and foremost and if he's comfortable go to the next and the next?
  • ace52
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 284
Jonnydel, despite their record, ATL's passing offense is still, at least stats-wise, one of the better passing offenses we've gone up against this year. Harry Douglas is now their leading receiver, not White or Gonzalez. Did anything stand out to you as far as what ATL has tried to do with Douglas, that has made him so successful?
How do the Niners neutralize Douglas?
Originally posted by ace52:
Jonnydel, despite their record, ATL's passing offense is still, at least stats-wise, one of the better passing offenses we've gone up against this year. Harry Douglas is now their leading receiver, not White or Gonzalez. Did anything stand out to you as far as what ATL has tried to do with Douglas, that has made him so successful?
How do the Niners neutralize Douglas?

I think that stat is quite misleading actually. Atlanta has been getting pounded on so much this year by halftime that they have collected a lot of garbage time stats. I know I had Douglas on fantasy lol.
Originally posted by ace52:
Jonnydel, despite their record, ATL's passing offense is still, at least stats-wise, one of the better passing offenses we've gone up against this year. Harry Douglas is now their leading receiver, not White or Gonzalez. Did anything stand out to you as far as what ATL has tried to do with Douglas, that has made him so successful?
How do the Niners neutralize Douglas?

Well, a lot of teams haven't been running a 2 deep safety look against ATL. Instead, they're running a cover 3 zone while keeping an eye on White, and then doubling Gonzales in a lot of man situations. This has allowed Douglas to get 1-1 with a safety at times or 1-1 with the teams #2 corner. Also, remember White was hobbled for a while and Julio is out. He was the primary outside receiver for a while. Douglas is a bid bodied guy, like Julio. So, there are some times that when he gets 1-1 that he has the definitive size advantage. But, unlike Julio, he doesn't have the top end speed or timing to really become a consistent deep threat. His body type is much more suited for the outside than the slot where he's been playing so his production has increased in that regard.
  • ace52
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 284
Originally posted by jonnydel:
Well, a lot of teams haven't been running a 2 deep safety look against ATL. Instead, they're running a cover 3 zone while keeping an eye on White, and then doubling Gonzales in a lot of man situations. This has allowed Douglas to get 1-1 with a safety at times or 1-1 with the teams #2 corner. Also, remember White was hobbled for a while and Julio is out. He was the primary outside receiver for a while. Douglas is a bid bodied guy, like Julio. So, there are some times that when he gets 1-1 that he has the definitive size advantage. But, unlike Julio, he doesn't have the top end speed or timing to really become a consistent deep threat. His body type is much more suited for the outside than the slot where he's been playing so his production has increased in that regard.

So who do you think will be on Douglas in this game? Will it be Brown or Brock? Douglas will have a size advantage on both, but maybe Brock will be more effective against him.
Originally posted by ace52:
Originally posted by jonnydel:
Well, a lot of teams haven't been running a 2 deep safety look against ATL. Instead, they're running a cover 3 zone while keeping an eye on White, and then doubling Gonzales in a lot of man situations. This has allowed Douglas to get 1-1 with a safety at times or 1-1 with the teams #2 corner. Also, remember White was hobbled for a while and Julio is out. He was the primary outside receiver for a while. Douglas is a bid bodied guy, like Julio. So, there are some times that when he gets 1-1 that he has the definitive size advantage. But, unlike Julio, he doesn't have the top end speed or timing to really become a consistent deep threat. His body type is much more suited for the outside than the slot where he's been playing so his production has increased in that regard.

So who do you think will be on Douglas in this game? Will it be Brown or Brock? Douglas will have a size advantage on both, but maybe Brock will be more effective against him.

Unlike some teams, we don't pit our corners against a particular guy, we play with a left and right corner. So, it'll be whose ever side he's on.
  • GORO
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 1,802
Originally posted by jonnydel:
So, I've gone through a lot of Falcons game film. There are a lot of things the Falcons do well, but, they have definitely missed Julio Jones. Defenses play them much differently without Julio. He really made the offense click. That, and their running offense was different than it is with Jackson. With Michael Turner they were much more of a power running game, with a lot of trap, power and dives with occasional zone runs. Last year in the NFCCG they ran a lot more traps and power against us.

This year they are much more of a zone running scheme. They're running game is a lot like the Buc's, the difference is the runner. Barney for the Buc's was a much more, "find the open space" runner who has good burst through the hole. Jackson uses the zone run to set up guys trying to arm tackle, he then runs with his heavy frame into the defense. He looks to run through arm tackles, not run people over most of the time. This is why the Falcons use the zone run scheme with him. When their offense is on schedule, it's very effective. Jackson is still a good RB. It's going to be on McDonald and Justin Smith to hold down the O-lineman to allow for Bow and Willis to hit Jackson head on. I see the Falcons trying to go 3 WR to run the ball.

Last year when we played them, Willis got the majority of the duties in covering Gonzales. Mainly, because Willis is more physical in his coverage, while Bowman is a better change of direction type of coverage player. So, they would use Willis in coverage on Gonzales, while Bowman would lurk the middle of the field. Plus, Gonzales get's so physical with the defender, that trying to use your quickness against him doesn't work.

Last year, we ran a lot of man coverage, but when we went zone, they primarily targeted Roddy White. The same holds true this year. When the opposing team goes zone coverage they like to use White's large frame to run over the middle. If we go zone, I see us running a lot of cover 3 to take away the middle of the field. When we run man, expect Whitner to give Willis inside help from the safety spot on Gonzales. This year when teams run man coverage they look for Gonzales.

I also see them flexing Gonzales out to Aldon's side from a 2 TE set a lot and trying to hit some flood routes towards Gonzales with Jackson as the flat receiver. This means Reid is gonna have to strap it on this week. He'll probably be asked to take on Jackson in the open field in the flat.

I don't see us hardly blitzing them this week. The biggest weakness for the Falcons this year has been their offensive line by far. They are not playing well at all. Brian Orakpo absolutely manhandled every member of that offensive line in the last game at some point. They have also given up consistent pressure vs. just about every front they've played. This is a team that is still trying to figure out it's identity. They knew who they were last year, but this year, with the loss of Julio Jones and with the change in running scheme, they haven't adapted well to how defenses are now playing them differently.

That's how I see us attacking them from the defensive side of the ball.

From the Offensive side, I see us, first, attacking their D-ends. Their D-tackles are very active. Babineaux in particular. I see us running a lot of sweep's and D-end traps. Also, using James like we did against the Buc's to attack the edges, especially to Dunta Robinson's side. Dunta Robinson has been burned that last few weeks trying to be overly aggressive in run support from his corner position. I see us hitting the edges early in the run game to set up a corner or wheel route with Vernon against Robinson(usually plays the right side corner) early in the 2nd quarter(probably by our 3rd possession) off of PA.

Mike Nolan loves to use multiple fronts to make life harder on the O-line. I have seen them run a multitude of fronts, 3-4, 4-3 over, 4-3 under, 4-3 even, 6-2, 3-4 over, 2-4, 3-3-5. They love to show a lot of different fronts. This requires smart, active DT's to pull off. Last year, they started out with a lot of man coverage on 1st and 2nd down and usually an exotic zone blitz on 3rd down. When we started running the ball more effectively, the LB's started to play more forward aggressive. When that happened we started to hit Vernon matched up against either a S or a LB on some crossing/wheel routes. Then, they went to more of a zone coverage, which is when we started to hit Crabtree in the zones more. When playing man, ATL likes to play off coverage with the corners. There were 3 times last year when Kaep saw this and pulled the ball up on a running play and threw it to Crabtree(you could see by the O-line and RB's it was clearly a running play called) I see ATL this year trying to play more press zone at the beginning of the game. Look for us to try and hit Crab's on some crossing patterns in the game as well as some designed plays to get Boldin the ball in space with some blockers against the zone. DeCoud is quicker than fast and not a great tackler so I see him as the guy they try and get Boldin the ball against in open space.

Overall, I see us winning this game. We're probably not going to have a point total to reflect how well we'll dominate this game. We're going to win the TOP by a wide margin and probably put up 24-27 points. I don't see our defense giving up more than 13 points against them.

That's how I see us attacking them on defense. Prob
How many games did you watch? Seems like you watched a lot, Thanks for your analysis.