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Analysis from the Tampa Bay coaches film

Originally posted by JoeBart324:
Thanks for all the detailed analysis johnnydel.

Just wanted to say I was firmly in the camp of Roman being a mediocre OC. You threads have changed that perception. I think it's apparent the offense is fairly complex and seeks to exploit the weaknesses of other teams, whether it be run or pass. It's not just a one read offense, or an offense that will continually run into 9 man fronts. However, some of these plays are very complex or rely on great execution to work. Thus, when they don't work, they get utterly blown up and look ridiculous.

I think this is where much of our consternation has come from. We've seen the Niners perform poorly and were quick to blame Roman. But it appears it is a mix of players missing assignments, defenses simply out-executing the Niners, Kaep missing his throw and/or read, and difficulties in getting the play off due (apparently) to the difficulty of radio-ing in a complex play call. Not all of that is Roman's fault.

Fortunately, much of this is correctable, and the offense should improve as it gets healthier.

Spot on IMHO! It's a myriad of issues...from offensive philsophy, game planning, lack of adjustments (or the wrong ones), personnel issues, CK being green and hesitant, the 6-coach-input, that fan up in section 64B, etc. It realy is a number of factors but at least, right now, we can rule out personnel and even CK being "green" now that we're into week 16. We should really see now what the coaches had in store for our offense prior to Crabtree going down (but don't underestimate the impact Miller has in our offense either).
I almost forgot to break down the Boldin run!



Here we start out with an empty backfield with James lined up out right. We motion Boldin into the backfield, making it look like we're isolating Crabtree 1-1 on the outside.



As you see, this sets up a big inside run advantage as there's only one LB in the middle of the field. We motion James fast giving the appearance of a sweep(highly likely since we brought one defender out of the outside area)



All of the James run action brings a lot of attention from the D. You see 4 players bite on the play. This sets up a numbers advantage for us on the backside.



From the endzone I've highlighted the blocking scheme. This is a DE trap play. They combo down on the DT while the pulling Guard is responsible to kick out the DE with Davis leading up the hole onto the LB.



You see how the James run action holds the LB from being aggressive and stepping up into the hole. Snyder has a good angle on the DE, he doesn't even need to blow the guy up, he just needs to wall off the defender from the play.



Instead, Snyder totally whiffs on his block.....



You see how Snyder has whiffed and how good of blocking angles both VD and AD have on the LB's



I've highlighted the goal line with the purple line at the bottom of the screen. If Snyder makes that block, Boldin walks in for a TD as the safety on that side would've had to be a superhero to make a tackle on Boldin from his angle.
Originally posted by jonnydel:
I almost forgot to break down the Boldin run!



Here we start out with an empty backfield with James lined up out right. We motion Boldin into the backfield, making it look like we're isolating Crabtree 1-1 on the outside.



As you see, this sets up a big inside run advantage as there's only one LB in the middle of the field. We motion James fast giving the appearance of a sweep(highly likely since we brought one defender out of the outside area)



All of the James run action brings a lot of attention from the D. You see 4 players bite on the play. This sets up a numbers advantage for us on the backside.



From the endzone I've highlighted the blocking scheme. This is a DE trap play. They combo down on the DT while the pulling Guard is responsible to kick out the DE with Davis leading up the hole onto the LB.



You see how the James run action holds the LB from being aggressive and stepping up into the hole. Snyder has a good angle on the DE, he doesn't even need to blow the guy up, he just needs to wall off the defender from the play.



Instead, Snyder totally whiffs on his block.....



You see how Snyder has whiffed and how good of blocking angles both VD and AD have on the LB's



I've highlighted the goal line with the purple line at the bottom of the screen. If Snyder makes that block, Boldin walks in for a TD as the safety on that side would've had to be a superhero to make a tackle on Boldin from his angle.

Nice. I was totally fine with this play...although I probably would have used BOLDIN as the blocker and not the RB here and I probably wouldn't have done it inside the 10...but what the heck, it's the Bucs! I still think #54 cleans this up or the S just to his left. Did the S go with Crabtree? Either way, it should have been a positive gain but unfortunately, one chain broke here
[ Edited by NCommand on Dec 18, 2013 at 3:33 PM ]
Originally posted by NCommand:
Nice. I was totally fine with this play...although I probably would have used BOLDIN as the blocker and not the RB here and I probably wouldn't have done it inside the 10...but what the heck, it's the Bucs! I still think #54 cleans this up or the S just to his left. Did the S go with Crabtree? Either way, it should have been a positive gain but unfortunately, one chain broke here

The safety was about 15 ft. outside the LB, the LB would've had to make a great play on VD as a blocker, There was so much space inside and Boldin would've hit that hole full speed, VD would've only needed to get in his way. IF the safety could've gotten over in time, he would've hit Boldin so close the goal line, there's not way Boldin doesn't get it with how much of a monster he is and the safety having to move sideways and stop a vertical runner flat.
Originally posted by jonnydel:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Nice. I was totally fine with this play...although I probably would have used BOLDIN as the blocker and not the RB here and I probably wouldn't have done it inside the 10...but what the heck, it's the Bucs! I still think #54 cleans this up or the S just to his left. Did the S go with Crabtree? Either way, it should have been a positive gain but unfortunately, one chain broke here

The safety was about 15 ft. outside the LB, the LB would've had to make a great play on VD as a blocker, There was so much space inside and Boldin would've hit that hole full speed, VD would've only needed to get in his way. IF the safety could've gotten over in time, he would've hit Boldin so close the goal line, there's not way Boldin doesn't get it with how much of a monster he is and the safety having to move sideways and stop a vertical runner flat.

This is probably very true...no question it had a REAL chance. Fail on you Snyder! I'll have to watch the gif or the replay as well to get the full picture but too bad it was ended before it even got started. I would have liked to see it executed. Even better, I'd like to see Hunter and Boldin reversed on that play. On another side note, I've been begging Roman to run VD or Boldin (any WR esp. Manningham) from the Q formation more to get them a clean release and full head of steam. Who can cover them?
Originally posted by jonnydel:
Originally posted by thl408:
Play in post #154 (TB's second TD pass)
My interpretation of the play is that Rogers makes the mistake of trying to do too much when he sees Brooks slip and fall. He tries to cover the underneath (flat) for a split second and it allows Wright to come into Rogers' zone uncovered. I think Whitner was in zone all the way and held his assignment. The playaction was well over by the time Whitner got flat footed (what I think is him obeying his zone) as he didn't show urgency in running with his man. I think it's cover 3 and Rogers is the goat here as he tries to cover for Brooks.

I thought about that too, but, Reid doesn't drop into a true 3rd zone on the other side, plus, if Whitner is supposed to be deepest middle 3rd he doesn't take any kind of deep high safety drop....

Trying to diagnose a blown coverage when you don't know they play call has always been difficult. Even experienced scouts often can't say with certainty who is at fault much of the time.

But with that said, I'd hazard a guess this was some sort of combo coverage. Reid and Brock on the far side are definitely playing cover 2. Reid is aligned outside to start, and Brock lets Vincent Jackson push into his cushion with the expectation of deep safety help. I'd guess that it is cover 2 on the far side and cover 4 (quarters) on the near side, with Whitner and roger taking responsibility for the 2 deep quarters of the near side of the field. The actual call is cover 6 (cover 4 + 2). Whitner is a little close to provide extra run support, while Reid can worry just about providing deep help on Jacson, the more dangerous deep threat.

The Steelers run this coverage a lot, with Polamalu pushed into the Whitner role to help in the run.

If this admitted guess is right, the TD is more on Rogers getting beat deep in his deep quarter. The bucs are running a high-low stretch on Rogers but he can't get beat deep. I agree with those who said Rogers may have been distracted by Brooks falling; I also think Rogers sometimes can be prone to guessing and jumping routes. The clear matchup advantage for the Bucs is Brooks trying to cover the near flats, and Rogers may have been a little prone to jumping it.
  • GORO
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Originally posted by NCommand:
Dilfer: "If you're a skill position guy for the Niners, you're only getting the ball if the play was designed to get you the ball. They don't have the type of offensive structure and Colin isn't the type of quarterback that there are five eligible receivers and anyone can get the ball."

Does someone want to call B.S. on my theory now? Dilfer essentially went one level deeper (where I'm at) from calling CK a "remedial" QB if the first read isn't there to what I have been highlighting with the AR (team designed) passing game.

NCommand: I just tweeted Greg Cosell and this was his responsel

In the middle of watching tape. Not familiar with term anointed re: NFL passing games. Could you explain in more detail.

Maybe you can tweet him and explain further.
Johnny Del, do you have a summary of the offense/defense breakdowns which helped put Tampa back in the game? I haven't been able to spot a synopsis of the DLine play on tampas two long drives.

Also, I read the posts relating to "Bigfoot" and I have similar emotions to NCommand. It may be difficult to articulate why, but we are underperforming on offense. Not laying it all on any one person's doorstep, but I have the feeling that it's in our control to make things better with the players we have.

I would love to hear your take on the H1 of the browns pats game 2 weeks ago.
Originally posted by Stanley:
Proven wrong by who? I haven't seen anyone prove that wrong yet.

On the contrary, spending 3-4 hours a day reading and listening to NFL coaches, players, and broadcasters, it's been proven that is the strategy teams employ against Kaepernick, at least pre-Crabtree/Manningham.

Or did you see a couple GIFs of Kap scanning the field and convinced yourself that he no longer struggles there

Who are these NFL coaches, players, and broadcasters that I should trust over our own NFL coach, players? Do these other coaches, players, broadcasters know who the reads are on each given play? I don't think so.
[ Edited by kronik on Dec 18, 2013 at 4:20 PM ]
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by jonnydel:
Originally posted by SFFanSince72:
I've followed this thread and the previous Seattle analysis thread from the beginning and just wanted to add my 2 cents about the AR vs PS debate. (Now that I know what you mean...lol)

First of all, I would hope that the team has changed, adapted, grown since Dilfer was last a part of the 49ers. If that wasn't the case, every team in our division would be scrambling to hire him as an offensive consultant. I mean to say, that I tend to believe that things change more than just the verbage of play calls. I think the offensive philosophy adapts and grows, especially as a QB and offense as a whole grows. This being the case, I think Dilfer is doing about the same as jonnydel and th and to some degree Ncommand. Making educated guesses based on what he sees happen on the field. Like others, I never thought that Dilfer was that great of a analytical QB to begin with and therefore take most of his quotes with a grain of salt.

As to the subject of the AR vs PS style offense, has anyone brought up the possibility that the two plays that are called into Kap consist of one AR and one PS. Then based on his comfort level with each individual play and his feel for the game, he is choosing between those two?
That's def. possible. I think they run a combination of the two, that some are team passing and some aren't. Overall, I think, even if it is a team passing type of play, that's not a negative. Peyton runs a lot of team concept stuff all the time. He's constantly running rub routes and decoy routes based off what he see's during the game. I watched a lot of the coaches film of the Broncos and Chargers game and he was setting up a lot of half field reads for himself with a lot of decoy routes to clear out zones as San Diego ran a lot of zone coverage during the first half.

There's no way to tell what the other play called in the huddle was when the execute the plays though.....

This is very true. We're essentially talking about two sides of the same coin and the fundamental difference is the number of played called from each set. I think we run a more predominant AR and jonny thinks we run PS (correct me if I'm wrong jonny). You can't live or die by one philosophy anymore. DC's are too good. Look how quickly they adjusted to the Q formation (read-option).

And like I said in Roman thread, the AR's HAVE and will continue to successful as long as everyone does their part. It relies heavily on top notch talent and individual matchups as well as the OC calling the right plays in the huddle. As a reference, the AR2 where we have two or three offensive players downfield blocking while an underneath AR is hit well short of the first down and it's up to him to get RAC to make that marker? That play was stolen by Alex Smith and incorporated into the KC playbook with one wrinkle...the underneath WR will drag from one side of the field to the other for RAC so that he's at full speed when he catches that underneath route making him much harder to tackle in the open field.

I hope I'm not the only one who see the major problem with this offensive philosophy:

The likelihood of have a team maintaining top notch offensive talent (read 3 uber talented receivers and a blue chip running back along with an impressive OL) year in and year out without either succumbing to injury or free agency is extremely rare. IMHO, the 49ers haven't proven they can develop offensive talent outside the OL and even then it's not that dominant. Gore, Davis, Crabtree and Boldin were all here before Roman arrived. The bench is completely bare of players who've been developed and who can step in and take the field. You can't simply say these players just need an off-season because that was the case last year when Kap had an "off-season" with some of his receivers and NONE of them panned out - in fact NONE of them are with the team anymore. McDonald seems to be injury prone given how high we drafted him and we have a full stable of running backs that we seem to utilize only

one

at

a

time.

This offense clearly works when everyone is playing. BUT, when they're not .... well you saw the first 1/2 of the season pre-Crabtree.
[ Edited by NinerGM on Dec 18, 2013 at 4:21 PM ]
3rd Quarter 3rd & 9

This was a somewhat key 3rd down that the 49ers were not able to convert. It was 20-7 at the time and when TB got the ball back they went on to score their 2nd TD to make it a 20-14 game.

49ers: Rub concept + Mesh concept
TB: Zone coverage
In generic terms, the mesh and rub concept can be classified as the same. I differentiate between the two by looking at the distance that each route runner runs before the criss cross action is executed.

Below: Pre-snap, there is a lot going on as Kap's hard count may have revealed TB's hand. Notice how hard the LB and the SS bite on the hard count. Kap then 'does stuff' and is either calling an audible or calling line protection. Then the TB defenders flap their arms like a bird which I can only guess means something.


Below: The 49ers will be utilizing the rub concept with Crabs+Boldin lined up to the left side of the formation. I call the combination Crabs+Boldin are using a rub because they line up close to each other and criss cross, hoping to set a pick for the CB's in man coverage. 49ers will also be using Ham+VD to utilize the mesh concept over the middle. The route concepts being run on this play sell out on beating man coverage.


Below: After the snap, Crabs/Boldin is Kap's first read. Because it's zone coverage, the Buc CBs are not picked off.


Below: Kap's second read is the mesh over the middle. It can be seen that TB is indeed in zone coverage as the CB at the bottom of the screen stays in his zone and does not follow Ham. The play call has failed against this coverage. Kap will complete a pass to Ham, but with all the zone defenders looking at the play, the CB can attack Ham and prevent any RAC.


The play:


The reason this play was really interesting is because it opens the question that if Kap is calling plays based on his pre-snap read, then couldn't a defense force the 49ers into a play call based on what they reveal pre-snap? Using this play as an example, was TB baiting the 49ers into thinking that a blitz was coming? Looking at the pre-snap GIF. The SS bites so much on the hard count it's a bit too obvious (you can see Kap's hard count by his head bobble). As if he wants Kap to change the play. Fake a blitz (which suggests man coverage), allow the offense to audible to a man coverage busting concept, then change the coverage to zone.
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Originally posted by thl408:


The reason this play was really interesting is because it opens the question that if Kap is calling plays based on his pre-snap read, then couldn't a defense force the 49ers into a play call based on what they reveal pre-snap? Using this play as an example, was TB baiting the 49ers into thinking that a blitz was coming? Looking at the pre-snap GIF. The SS bites so much on the hard count it's a bit too obvious (you can see Kap's hard count by his head bobble). As if he wants Kap to change the play. Fake a blitz (which suggests man coverage), allow the offense to audible to a man coverage busting concept, then change the coverage to zone.

I'm glad you brought this up. A lot of teams have had success changing their defense after an audible. During the game, they did their arm flap two or three times, signaling they were audibling as well, or calling out our play change. We need to be able to do a fake audible at times to throw off this type of thing. For example, we call a play, Kap hard counts, the defense shows something, Kap yells out a fake audible, the defense audibles, and we run the play we were going to run the entire time.
[ Edited by AmpLee on Dec 18, 2013 at 4:36 PM ]
Originally posted by AmpLee:
I'm glad you brought this up. A lot of teams have had success changing their defense after an audible. During the game, they did their arm flap two or three times, signaling they were audibling as well, or calling out our play change. We need to be able to do a fake audible at times to throw off this type of thing. For example, we call a play, Kap hard counts, the defense shows something, Kap yells out a fake audible, the defense audibles, and we run the play we were going to run the entire time.

Yup, exactly what I was getting at. Usually when a blitzing defender is fooled by a hard count, he'll take one false step, but catches himself. Here, the SS makes it way too obvious that he was coming on a blitz. He took like 4 steps. Kap's hard count is good, but come on. Like you said, fake audibles can throw off a defense as well. Just a cat and mouse game when it comes to pre-snap disguise.
Originally posted by AmpLee:
Originally posted by thl408:


The reason this play was really interesting is because it opens the question that if Kap is calling plays based on his pre-snap read, then couldn't a defense force the 49ers into a play call based on what they reveal pre-snap? Using this play as an example, was TB baiting the 49ers into thinking that a blitz was coming? Looking at the pre-snap GIF. The SS bites so much on the hard count it's a bit too obvious (you can see Kap's hard count by his head bobble). As if he wants Kap to change the play. Fake a blitz (which suggests man coverage), allow the offense to audible to a man coverage busting concept, then change the coverage to zone.

I'm glad you brought this up. A lot of teams have had success changing their defense after an audible. During the game, they did their arm flap two or three times, signaling they were audibling as well, or calling out our play change. We need to be able to do a fake audible at times to throw off this type of thing. For example, we call a play, Kap hard counts, the defense shows something, Kap yells out a fake audible, the defense audibles, and we run the play we were going to run the entire time.

There's a lot of gamesmanship going on back and forth there. You can see Kaep changed the play to a man coverage beater, but tampa countered by going with a 2 zone coverage that helped them stop the play short. I had looked at that play when I was breaking down the film as well, Tampa did stuff like that a couple times. You have to give it to the D-capt. there to make the right call on the fly. Sometimes the guys on the other side of the ball know their P's and Q's well too.
Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
Johnny Del, do you have a summary of the offense/defense breakdowns which helped put Tampa back in the game? I haven't been able to spot a synopsis of the DLine play on tampas two long drives.

Also, I read the posts relating to "Bigfoot" and I have similar emotions to NCommand. It may be difficult to articulate why, but we are underperforming on offense. Not laying it all on any one person's doorstep, but I have the feeling that it's in our control to make things better with the players we have.

I would love to hear your take on the H1 of the browns pats game 2 weeks ago.

They weren't as much breakdowns as the chess game ramping up in the middle portion of the game. Tampa made some good 2nd half adjustments. Tampa was able to put two long drives together when the defense started to play out of sync. Our rush relies on our coverage and our coverage relies on our rush. It's a full team game, when the coverage busted their job, the rush was good, but, the QB had somewhere to go with the ball. When the rush didn't get there, the coverage was pressed too hard to hold up. They just didn't play in sync on those drives. Like I said in the Seahawks thread, when our D plays with sound technique and fundamentals, they are really really good.
[ Edited by jonnydel on Dec 18, 2013 at 4:49 PM ]
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