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We're in good shape to keep 6th seed

gotta capture magic in a bottle and ride it all the way like the SF Giants in 2010
Originally posted by tjd808185:
Originally posted by MachMan:
you really think seattle will roll over for a division rival at home?


They'll rest their starters like most teams do in that situation.

No they won't. They already would have a bye week in the playoffs so time is not their concern. They will protect their home field against a division rival...that's not even debatable
Originally posted by Sims84:
No they won't. They already would have a bye week in the playoffs so time is not their concern. They will protect their home field against a division rival...that's not even debatable

Believe what you want.
Originally posted by Sims84:
Originally posted by tjd808185:
Originally posted by MachMan:
you really think seattle will roll over for a division rival at home?


They'll rest their starters like most teams do in that situation.

No they won't. They already would have a bye week in the playoffs so time is not their concern. They will protect their home field against a division rival...that's not even debatable

They kept Harvin from playing against the Saints so they can keep him fresh for the niner game. I seriously doubt it was all his injury that kept him out. You can bet they have plays designed for him. Niners need to be ready for that.
Originally posted by MachMan:
There are only 3 teams that can legitimately challenge that seed. Here's the challenge they face:

Eagles/Cowboys.

They play each other week 17, So that is a an automatic loss for the division loser. Whoever wins the division is obviously not a challenge for the 6th seed. So, in order for them to get the 6th seed, that means the losing team of week 17 will have to have won the 3 previous games and we lost at least 2. If they won the 3 previous games and week 17 still mattered, that means the other team also won their previous 3 games. Both teams would automatically have a better conference record than us if we tied record wise, so we have to have more wins. This isn't as dangerous as you might think because:

So, in order to lose the 6th to one of these teams, Either

1. BOTH teams finish the season with 3-4 wins in the final 4 games and we lose 2.
2. division loser wins 2 and we lose 3
3. division loser wins 1 and we lose 4.

Arizona.
We have the division tie breaker over them if they lose at Seattle. If they lose at Seattle, the most division wins they can have is 2. We already have 3. This means Arizona would have to actually beat our record.

So in order for Arizona to take our spot if they beat Seattle:

1. We lose to Arizona and Arizona wins as many games or more as the 49ers for the other 3 games. Tie breaker would most likely be strength of victory. Arizona beat Carolina so that hurts.
2. We beat Arizona, lose 3 games and Arizona wins 3

If Arizona loses to Seattle:

1. Arizona beats us, we lose 2 other games and they beat Tennessee and St. Louis (3 total 49er losses, 3 total Arizona wins)
2. We lose out, Arizona also beats either Tennessee or St. Louis (4 49er losses, 3 Arizona wins)
3. We beat Arizona, we lose all 3 other games, Arizona beats Tennesse and St. Louis (3 49er losses, 3 Arizona wins)



In conclusion.
If Seattle beats Arizona and both the Cowboys and Eagles don't go 3-1 or better for the final 4 games, we'd have to go 1-3 to miss the play offs.

Feel any better?

Thanks that was the best breakdown ever. I actually feel 100% better
i don't care about that. would rather have the #5 spot.

The road will go through seattle.. If we beat seattle in the playoffs at that madhouse we will win the super bowl
I really hope we end up with the 5th seed because I would much rather beat Seattle in the NFC title game than the divisional round.
Originally posted by vermonator:
If the Niners stumble into the play-offs, I don't see us going any further. IMHO, We need to go in hot and win out to get to the Superbowl, no matter what seed it is. If we lose even one game, it's going to leave a mark on this team's psyche. Sure anything can happen if they can just make it to the tournament, but the odds are stacked against them, and history show's the stumblers don't last in the post season. This Sunday's game is huge, despite any play-off implications, another loss to Seattle will be hard to come back from.

Hmmm if this means Roman, Johnson and Chryst are gone ... I can live with that.
Originally posted by MachMan:
There are only 3 teams that can legitimately challenge that seed. Here's the challenge they face:

Eagles/Cowboys.

They play each other week 17, So that is a an automatic loss for the division loser. Whoever wins the division is obviously not a challenge for the 6th seed. So, in order for them to get the 6th seed, that means the losing team of week 17 will have to have won the 3 previous games and we lost at least 2. If they won the 3 previous games and week 17 still mattered, that means the other team also won their previous 3 games. Both teams would automatically have a better conference record than us if we tied record wise, so we have to have more wins. This isn't as dangerous as you might think because:

So, in order to lose the 6th to one of these teams, Either

1. BOTH teams finish the season with 3-4 wins in the final 4 games and we lose 2.
2. division loser wins 2 and we lose 3
3. division loser wins 1 and we lose 4.

Arizona.
We have the division tie breaker over them if they lose at Seattle. If they lose at Seattle, the most division wins they can have is 2. We already have 3. This means Arizona would have to actually beat our record.

So in order for Arizona to take our spot if they beat Seattle:

1. We lose to Arizona and Arizona wins as many games or more as the 49ers for the other 3 games. Tie breaker would most likely be strength of victory. Arizona beat Carolina so that hurts.
2. We beat Arizona, lose 3 games and Arizona wins 3

If Arizona loses to Seattle:

1. Arizona beats us, we lose 2 other games and they beat Tennessee and St. Louis (3 total 49er losses, 3 total Arizona wins)
2. We lose out, Arizona also beats either Tennessee or St. Louis (4 49er losses, 3 Arizona wins)
3. We beat Arizona, we lose all 3 other games, Arizona beats Tennesse and St. Louis (3 49er losses, 3 Arizona wins)



In conclusion.
If Seattle beats Arizona and both the Cowboys and Eagles don't go 3-1 or better for the final 4 games, we'd have to go 1-3 to miss the play offs.

Feel any better?

Good analysis.

I think this weekends games will set the tone. We can possibly go 2 and 2, especially with Seattle coming.

If Philly beats Detroit, they have two very winnable games left. Same with Dallas. If they win at Chicago, their last two games are very winnable.

Philly's next 3 games:

Sun, Dec 8vsDetroit
Sun, Dec 15@Minnesota
Sun, Dec 22vsChicago

Cowboys next 3 games:

Mon, Dec 9@Chicago
Sun, Dec 15vsGreen Bay
Sun, Dec 22@Washington

Arizona's next two games are winnable.

AND if Seattle wins the next two games, they have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. That means their last two games will be meaningless. They may lose to Arizona on purpose just to set up the wild card showdown at the end of the year.


I want the hawks in the playoffs
I think we nail the 5th seed in the final week somehow. -It's destiny that the Panthers go into Seattle, and we go back to NOLA.
We may still have a good shot at the 5 seed. Carolina plays the Saints twice in the next 3 weeks, and I think the Panthers are built to stuff New Orleans like Seattle did. If Carolina stays hot and wins the division, the Saints might fall to the 6 seed.
Originally posted by hondakillerzx:


I want the hawks in the playoffs

I want NO part of the Seahawks in the playoffs. Not up in Seattle.
Originally posted by NinerGM:
Hmmm if this means Roman, Johnson and Chryst are gone ... I can live with that.

Magic Johnson?? Keyshawn Johnson??
Originally posted by Niners99:
Originally posted by hondakillerzx:


I want the hawks in the playoffs

I want NO part of the Seahawks in the playoffs. Not up in Seattle.

Ahhhhh......don't be a wuss!! I aint scurrd!!
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