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We're in good shape to keep 6th seed

There are only 3 teams that can legitimately challenge that seed. Here's the challenge they face:

Eagles/Cowboys.

They play each other week 17, So that is a an automatic loss for the division loser. Whoever wins the division is obviously not a challenge for the 6th seed. So, in order for them to get the 6th seed, that means the losing team of week 17 will have to have won the 3 previous games and we lost at least 2. If they won the 3 previous games and week 17 still mattered, that means the other team also won their previous 3 games. Both teams would automatically have a better conference record than us if we tied record wise, so we have to have more wins. This isn't as dangerous as you might think because:

So, in order to lose the 6th to one of these teams, Either

1. BOTH teams finish the season with 3-4 wins in the final 4 games and we lose 2.
2. division loser wins 2 and we lose 3
3. division loser wins 1 and we lose 4.

Arizona.
We have the division tie breaker over them if they lose at Seattle. If they lose at Seattle, the most division wins they can have is 2. We already have 3. This means Arizona would have to actually beat our record.

So in order for Arizona to take our spot if they beat Seattle:

1. We lose to Arizona and Arizona wins as many games or more as the 49ers for the other 3 games. Tie breaker would most likely be strength of victory. Arizona beat Carolina so that hurts.
2. We beat Arizona, lose 3 games and Arizona wins 3

If Arizona loses to Seattle:

1. Arizona beats us, we lose 2 other games and they beat Tennessee and St. Louis (3 total 49er losses, 3 total Arizona wins)
2. We lose out, Arizona also beats either Tennessee or St. Louis (4 49er losses, 3 Arizona wins)
3. We beat Arizona, we lose all 3 other games, Arizona beats Tennesse and St. Louis (3 49er losses, 3 Arizona wins)



In conclusion.
If Seattle beats Arizona and both the Cowboys and Eagles don't go 3-1 or better for the final 4 games, we'd have to go 1-3 to miss the play offs.

Feel any better?
[ Edited by MachMan on Dec 3, 2013 at 2:36 PM ]
we're fine for the 6th seed. i'm actually hoping to grab that 5th seed since the panthers and saints play twice coming up. i'd like to avoid seattle in the divisional round if at all possible.
Snap into a slim jim? A slimjim flying at Mach speed.

Nice post
And Carolina/Saints play each other twice in three weeks as well. Carolina then plays in Atlanta (T.Gonzalez's last game). Saints play @ Rams and Tampa. Tough games for Philly are Detroit/Chicago and @ Dallas. Arizona, like you mentioned, play the Rams, @ Titans and @ Seattle and SF. We could lose to Seattle and maybe even one more game and still most likely be fine for the #6; we have a good shot at the #5 as well.
[ Edited by NCommand on Dec 3, 2013 at 2:44 PM ]
If we were to win on the road, beating seattle in their house and then the broncos in the superbowl that would make an incredible story! That's pretty much all we can hope for now. That would be like '88 when no one gave us a chance to go into Chicago in their weather and dominate. We have to get back that road dog mentality
Originally posted by NCommand:
And Carolina/Saints play each other twice in three weeks as well. Carolina then plays in Atlanta (T.Gonzalez's last game). Saints play @ Rams and Tampa. Tough games for Philly are Detroit/Chicago and @ Dallas. Arizona, like you mentioned, play the Rams, @ Titans and @ Seattle and at SF. We could lose to Seattle and maybe even one more game and still most likely be fine for the #6; we have a good shot at the #5 as well.

5 has got to be our play here NC, otherwise you're staring down a divisional round playoff game in seattle. doesnt matter who wins the south but we gotta make sure we get that 5th.
Yea plz let's settle for less then tha best we are that's great thinkin!!!!
  • fryet
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We can get the 5th seed if we win out and Saints or Carolina lose both games. If they go 1-1, then they have to lose somewhere else, but if one team or the other goes 2-0, then we get the 5th seed.
This is reasssuring, thanks for posting!
Thanks, good post!
Good post.

In the beginning of the year, I'd be more pessimistic (i.e., "Our expectations have dropped and we're fighting for a wildcard?!"), but we've had a bye-week the two previous years and didn't close the deal -- I'm all for trying a new path to a Superbowl victory lol.
5th seed is a distinct possibility... but a division win would require winning out and the seahawks losing out. We'd basically have to kill russel wilson and 2/3s of their defense.
Regarding Arizona. If Seattle wins these next 2 games that game against Arizona will be irrelevant to them because they already would have everything clinched. If we lose to Seattle there's a strong likelihood week 17 will be for a playoff spot.
[ Edited by tjd808185 on Dec 3, 2013 at 4:50 PM ]
The 6th seed? Oh Wow! Big Whoopee! We should be the 1st or 2nd seed if the FO had gotten better receivers the first half of the season, and we had better play calling from Roman, and better audibles from Kaep at the line of scrimmage. A lot of wasted offensive plays this year. I'm so frustrated that we are having to hope and pray that we make the playoffs. We should be the 11-1 team right now.
Hey I wish we could get the first seed as much as anyone else. My point is we can clinch playoffs in 2 weeks. We could essentially have a bye week for the starters week 17. Even with the 5th seed, the 6th seed would have to win otherwise we'd be going to Seattle for the Division round either way.