Originally posted by thl408:
Kap is not a 1 read QB. Come on guys, he's not that dense. His problem is that he takes too long to move off a read when it is not open. Please allow me to explain the difference between a 1 read QB and a QB that is unable to quickly identify when a read is not open.
A one read QB will look to his pre-determined read once the ball is snapped. This read was determined pre-snap once the defense declared its alignment. If that read is not available, a one read QB will tuck/run, get sacked, or go immediately to his safety valve, if one is available. This is the thought process of a 1 read QB:
1. dropback
2. I was fooled by the defensive disguise, pre snap read is not open
3. Now what?
a. get sacked
b. run
c. throw it away
d. throw it to the safety valve
I do not consider the safety valve a read, as a QB doesn't have to read anything when throwing to his safety valve. He just throws it there when he decides that nothing is open.
This is the mindset of a non 1 read QB:
1. dropback
2. I was fooled by the defensive disguise, pre snap read is not open
3. Analyze defense
4. Now what?
a. move to second read
b. buy time by shuffling around pocket, move to second read
5. Second read not open, now what?
a. onto the 3rd read
b. saftey valve
The problem Kap has is moving from step 2 to step 3. He takes too long to determine that a read is not open. This is due to being unable to instinctively read a defense in 2 seconds. He is fooled by tricky coverage disguises. These are young QB deficiencies. Kap needs more game time reps, not film study, not practices at walk through speed, not hand holding by the coaches with play design that calls for AR (anointed receiver) plays. It's trial by fire with the coaches having to balance QB development with winning a football game.
Here is what may go through the mind of an elite QB:
1. dropback
2. I was fooled by the defensive disguise, pre snap read is not open
3. It's man coverage on the outside, zone underneath. (defense has been analyzed)
4. Throw to the route (route combination) that beats man coverage.
There is a seamless transition from step 2 to step 3 in the mind of Brees and Rodgers. There is a lag time in the mind of Kap and other unpolished, inexperienced QBs.
To take this back to Crabs, I severely underestimated how important Crabs loss was. I thought Kap could have the same success throwing to less talented WRs. Completely wrong. What was happening in 2012 was that Crabs was used as a crutch. Crabs is a damn good WR and could beat man coverage with consistency. This made locking on to Crabs not so bad of a play. Also, in 2012 the defenses were scared to death of Kap running so they were very disciplined in their rush lanes. This made it easy on the Oline to give Kap time.
As mentioned by many posters, the presence of Moss/DWalker opened up a lot of space due to their speed, and in Moss' case, reputation. That allowed Kap to lock onto Crabs and he never really developed the quick thinking he needs in order to be an analytical QB. When Kap has time, he can progress through his reads. When he doesn't have time, he isn't quick enough to get to his secondary reads in a timely manner.
This is a very fine analysis, but what I'm not seeing are throws to the safety valve. Are we running plays that don't have one? Your description of what goes through the mind of a one read QB is exactly what I'm seeing on Sundays - first option covered, and Kaep either gets sacked or throws it away. Sure, this may be a symptom of Kaep having difficulty in quickly assessing the defensive scheme (either pre-snap or post-snap) but if that is his flaw I would assume our coaches would recognize that and call more plays that are friendly to a young QB - screens, TE seams, slants.
The bottom line is that Kaep has talent. But if he consistently has trouble going through his progressions because he can't read defenses, we aren't going to win a championship any time soon. If this is his major flaw right now, I'd rather do with him what Seattle does with Wilson - have him scramble around, causing WRs to break off routes, which disrupts the defensive secondary scheme ... I mean, he either needs to learn how to play in a system, or we abandon the system and have him play three flags up out there.