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"We can't draft wide receivers"

Originally posted by English:
Originally posted by Big_Daddy:
Originally posted by English:
Several new posters have stated in various threads that we, or Baalke, can't draft wide receivers. I hate to see such nonsense become accepted wisdom, so it is time to look at the facts. We have, interestingly, taken one receiver a year for the last six years.

In 2013 we took Quinton Patton in the 4th. Whilst it is too early to properly assess him as a player his attitude appears faultless. Not a high pick and appears promising.

In 2012 we took A J Jenkins in the first. The only bust on this list, he doesn't seem that engaged by the sport. Baalke cleverly finessed him into another 1st rounder, Jon Baldwin who may or may not become a starter. Jury is out here but Jenkins was a bust for us.

Ronald Johnson was taken in 2011 in the 6th. He didn't make it and is now out of football. A shame, but 6th round draft picks who make it onto the roster are a pleasant surprise unless your roster is embarrassingly thin.

Kyle Williams was taken by us in 2010 in the 6th. See the above comments. Despite earning the righteous ire of the zone, though, he is a 6th round pick who is still with us.

Michael Crabtree was taken by us in one of the most exciting first rounds I can remember, in 2009. After a difficult start and despite attracting a lot of zone hatred, he has become the player we thought he could be when we drafted him.

In 2008 we took Josh Morgan in the 6th. He went to Washington when they threw money at him and is, I believe, still starting.

So there you have it. Two 1sts, one 4th and three 6ths. Only one of them is out of football although I guess AJ could get cut next summer. But even allowing for him, bearing in mind the low draft currency expended this is actually a remarkable record. I doubt many other teams could match it.

AJ Jenkins was a bust . Get over it. 1st round picks bust. Receivers seem to bust quite regularly. That is what the draft is. A lottery. But it is factually incorrect to say that we can't draft receivers.

WRONG...

In the last few years during Baalkes reign, it has been unanimously agreed that San Fran had been lacking at receivers for a decade now. So in these last three most recent years, for arguments sake, every announcer/fan had Niners drafting WR at some point in the draft, the higher the better because thats where the talent was. So in these last three years (having crabtree is not enough to say we didn't need a WR, because we did)… what did we do???

WRs that were linked to Niners just by sheer team need and general consensus of player worth--- AND YET WE PASSED ON---- u know we move up and down in the draft we could have gotten any receiver we wanted. We just didnt seem to want any of these guys. What does that tell you? We DONT KNOW HOW TO DRAFT WRs!!!

2011
2---- Torrey Smith, Greg Little, Randall Cobb
3---- Vincent Brown
5---- Denarious Moore!!!!
5---- Jeremy Kerley

2012
2----- Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffrey, Ryan Broyles, Reuben Randle
3----- Mohammed Sanu, TY Hilton (WHICH WAS OUR F-IN PICK!!!!!!!!!!)
4----- Chris Givens

2013
2----- Justin Hunter (WHICH WAS OUR PICK!!!! AGAIN!!!!), Robert Woods
3----- Terrance Williams, Keenan Allen
5----- Kenny Stills

I'm sure that there's reasons we passed on all of those. but considering our needs, instead of drafting back all the time, you need to take a few stabs when the stable of horses is paltry, at best

Not sure I recall saying, anywhere, that we draft sufficient receivers. Perhaps you can point this out and show me where I am "WRONG"! Actually if you and several other posters had actually read what I said it would have been clear that I consider that in a pass-friendly league we have significantly under invested at the position.

Two 1st round picks in six years isn't bad, but where are the second and third round picks? In this we have been bailed out by sixth round picks, which you would generally expect to disappear or become ST players, actually breaking through. More than once.

Can we draft receivers? Yes. I think that point is proven. Anyone disagreeing clearly doesn't understand or is arguing about a different question.

Do we draft receivers? Ah! Clearly not. The frequency with which we have brought in free agents answers that.

One thing about Trent Baalke. He seems to learn from his mistakes. So here is a prediction for you: at least two receivers drafted next spring, maybe more. At least one of them taken in the first two rounds.

Most of the receivers you mentioned wouldn't even start on this team when we are at full health.... I would much rather have all of the players that Baalke did draft who are contributing.. That being said, we should draft 2 receivers this year
Originally posted by thl408:
Can you cite a source stating that?

I found this. I don't fully grasp the AV but it's a student Harvard study so...

http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/04/09/analyzing-the-nfl-draft-the-safest-positions-to-target-in-the-first-round/

Long article short: They use a formula that calculates a player's draft position versus how productive they have been. Productive means being in the league, better to be a starter.
In the 1st round:
Safest picks 1-16: LB, OL
Riskiest picks 1-16: QB, RB

Safest 17-32: OL, DL (whoops I thought DL was risky in my previous post)
Riskiest 17-32: QB, LB

WR was right in the middle in both parts of the 1st round. Neither risky nor safe.

We looked at the past 10 drafts (1996-2005) and discovered that selecting a wide receiver in the first round is the single-worst decision your team can make on draft day. This recent history shows that first-round wide receivers have a shockingly high chance of bombing in the NFL. Just a handful of first-round wideouts over the past 10 years have flourished.

Not only does drafting a wide receiver bode poorly for your future, it bodes poorly for your past, too: Struggling teams are more likely than good teams to seek salvation in the form of a fleet-footed wideout (Hello, Matt Millen! – pictured here with the second of his criminally negligent three consecutive first-round wideouts, Roy Williams). More often than not, all these teams find is continued failure.

Interestingly – and really, this is little more than a statistical anomaly – the last five Super Bowl victors all went on to championship glory soon after losing or dumping their most recent No. 1-pick wideout.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/explosive-draft-day-findings/5177/
A healthy crabtree and this thread would never been created.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
We looked at the past 10 drafts (1996-2005) and discovered that selecting a wide receiver in the first round is the single-worst decision your team can make on draft day. This recent history shows that first-round wide receivers have a shockingly high chance of bombing in the NFL. Just a handful of first-round wideouts over the past 10 years have flourished.

Not only does drafting a wide receiver bode poorly for your future, it bodes poorly for your past, too: Struggling teams are more likely than good teams to seek salvation in the form of a fleet-footed wideout (Hello, Matt Millen! – pictured here with the second of his criminally negligent three consecutive first-round wideouts, Roy Williams). More often than not, all these teams find is continued failure.

Interestingly – and really, this is little more than a statistical anomaly – the last five Super Bowl victors all went on to championship glory soon after losing or dumping their most recent No. 1-pick wideout.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/explosive-draft-day-findings/5177/

Very interesting read, thanks. WR is definitely a tough position to draft. Although, one thing I found missing from the article is how do WRs compare with other positions with regards to bust rate? The article only seems to state that drafting WRs with a 1st rounder is risky with a high chance for failure, understood, but how does it compare with QBs, RBs, etc? Perhaps I missed it, but I did re-read the article and it just states "selecting a wide receiver in the first round is the single-worst decision your team can make on draft day." Is that implying that WR has the highest bust rate?

I liked that the article brought up the fact that teams who sucked the previous year liked to select a WR high in the draft. This is such a bad decision by the GM. If your team sucks, you need to work on fixing the foundation of the team instead of taking a "support position" imo.

Looks like the 49ers are on their way to a SB after ridding themselves of AJJ?
Originally posted by DefSikNiner:
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Actually, the exact opposite is true. In fact, as a position, WR has a higher first round bust percentage than any other position.

I agree.

I remember reading somewhere that it usually takes a WR at least 2-3 years to fully develop.

With that said, there are a lot of factors that can come into play that can hamper that.

Just to touch on Jenkins, the reason he busted was because he lacked determination and drive; I mean we all know the facts (ie. not taking up Jerry on his offer and coming into camp out of shape).

I just wish we could have seen what he could do, had he come into camp hungry and eager to learn.

I think the current regime has done a decent of job of drafting and bringing in WR's to bolster the WR core the past few seasons. It is hard to plan for so many injuries and players coming into camp lazy.

As a whole, and taking in to account our drafting of WRs over the last 10-15 seasons, I have to say we are average at best. The thought of trading up for J.J. Stokes back in 95 still gives me nightmares.


And that's with Steve Young at QB not being able to make much out of him.

Sad indeed.
If I had to wager on whether or not we draft 2 WR in next years draft, the answer would be no. Baalke and Harbaugh would rather draft 2 more running backs than do that, even though our passing game is 31st in the league. We will probably get more damn running backs on next years roster than Wideouts, sad but probably true.
Originally posted by IdahoNiner:
Originally posted by 808niner4lyphe:
Originally posted by goldstandard333:
Originally posted by 808niner4lyphe:
Wow, it seems like every thread in here turns out to be a "Trade for Gordon NOW Thread", no matter what the title says. Smh!

What do you expect? It's our most glaring issue. Generally last year all threads seemed to devolve into Kaep vs. Smith debate. It's what's on everyone's mind. I'm not surprised it bled into a thread about examining our recent history with wide receivers.

You do realize that Gordon is one test away from getting a year suspension right? Would you take that risk and waste a 2nd rd pick for somebody with a track history of substance abuse? Are you one of the fans that complained about Seattle's PED users, and yet you would take Gordon in a heartbeat because its our glaring need? Yes, I agree WR is one of our biggest need, but not for long, reinforcements coming soon if not there's other solution to this problem than trading for the Great Hall of Famer in Gordon, at least in some of you brilliant GM's mind.

PED's are different than a guy with a Codeine problem. A change of scenery and a winning attitude may be just what he needs.

As has been mentioned we have no clue what we have returning at WR. We have Manningham coming back to practice, but we have no clue what he will look like, and who knows if or when crabtree will be back and if he does come back if he will be 100%.

Add to that us pretty much only having Crabtree, Patton and Baldwin under contract at WR in 2014, and Gordon makes a lot of sense.

Gordon is ready NOW. He is putting up good numbers right now, and if we can add him to our squad for a second, then yes i would do that in a heartbeat.

BTW, our GM obviously considered trading for Gordon, so its not like we are just discussing trading for him out of thin air.

Yeah, even Baalke was worry about the risk of trading for him thats why reports says that we're not doing it. So its not gonna happen buddy, give it up already.
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 9,611
Our wide receivers going into the coming year, will most likely be Crabtree, Patton, and Baldwin.

Free agency will happen before the draft. We could add a wide receiver before the draft.

I expect the team to add two or three wide receivers in free agency and the draft.

My preference would be to draft one receiver in first two rounds, one receiver in the 3rd or 4th round, and one receiver in the late rounds.
Originally posted by buck:
Our wide receivers going into the coming year, will most likely be Crabtree, Patton, and Baldwin.

Free agency will happen before the draft. We could add a wide receiver before the draft.

I expect the team to add two or three wide receivers in free agency and the draft.

My preference would be to draft one receiver in first two rounds, one receiver in the 3rd or 4th round, and one receiver in the late rounds.

My preference as well. One of my favorite draft strategies is when you have a need, attack it aggressively by drafting multiple players to fill the position. I think teams that bank their hopes on one WR, even a 1st rounder, are setting themselves up for disappointment. Next year I think we go after multiple WRs and CBs in the draft.
[ Edited by SofaKing on Oct 10, 2013 at 2:39 AM ]
Originally posted by SofaKing:
Originally posted by buck:
Our wide receivers going into the coming year, will most likely be Crabtree, Patton, and Baldwin.

Free agency will happen before the draft. We could add a wide receiver before the draft.

I expect the team to add two or three wide receivers in free agency and the draft.

My preference would be to draft one receiver in first two rounds, one receiver in the 3rd or 4th round, and one receiver in the late rounds.

My preference as well. One of my favorite draft strategies is when you have a need, attack it aggressively by drafting multiple players to fill the position. I think teams that bank their hopes on one WR, even a 1st rounder, are setting themselves up for disappointment. Next year I think we go after multiple WRs and CBs in the draft.

Multiple receivers yes please. Multiple corners, don't think so.
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 9,611
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/explosive-draft-day-findings/5177/

Thank you. Good read.
  • mayo49
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 20,553
We suck in drafting da receiva.
I know its been stated already but I think a lot of people trip over the difference between can't and won't. For what ever reason this front office does not put a premium on the position of wide reciever. They have made one attempt in the Baalke era with Jenkins...admitedly a bust. But aside from the attempts have all been later rounds with the exception of Patton, who the jury is still out on and was a middle rounder himself. Do I hope they learned their lesson and spend some draft capital on guys who can get open?..sure do. Do I think that is indicative of an inability to scout talent at the position hell naw.
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 9,611
Originally posted by PhillyNiner:
I know its been stated already but I think a lot of people trip over the difference between can't and won't. For what ever reason this front office does not put a premium on the position of wide reciever. They have made one attempt in the Baalke era with Jenkins...admitedly a bust. But aside from the attempts have all been later rounds with the exception of Patton, who the jury is still out on and was a middle rounder himself. Do I hope they learned their lesson and spend some draft capital on guys who can get open?..sure do. Do I think that is indicative of an inability to scout talent at the position hell naw.

So far Baalke and Harbaugh have drafted four wide receivers.

2010--Kyle Williams--6th round
2010--Ronald Johnson--6th round
2011--AJ Jenkins--1st round
2012--Quinton Patton--4th round

On clear bust in the first, one bust in the 6th if you can call a 6th round pick a bust.
Kyle Williams--give him whatever grade you want.--I going to give him a C-.
We do not know much about Patton--no grade
Originally posted by English:
Several new posters have stated in various threads that we, or Baalke, can't draft wide receivers. I hate to see such nonsense become accepted wisdom, so it is time to look at the facts. We have, interestingly, taken one receiver a year for the last six years.

In 2013 we took Quinton Patton in the 4th. Whilst it is too early to properly assess him as a player his attitude appears faultless. Not a high pick and appears promising.

In 2012 we took A J Jenkins in the first. The only bust on this list, he doesn't seem that engaged by the sport. Baalke cleverly finessed him into another 1st rounder, Jon Baldwin who may or may not become a starter. Jury is out here but Jenkins was a bust for us.

Ronald Johnson was taken in 2011 in the 6th. He didn't make it and is now out of football. A shame, but 6th round draft picks who make it onto the roster are a pleasant surprise unless your roster is embarrassingly thin.

Kyle Williams was taken by us in 2010 in the 6th. See the above comments. Despite earning the righteous ire of the zone, though, he is a 6th round pick who is still with us.

Michael Crabtree was taken by us in one of the most exciting first rounds I can remember, in 2009. After a difficult start and despite attracting a lot of zone hatred, he has become the player we thought he could be when we drafted him.

In 2008 we took Josh Morgan in the 6th. He went to Washington when they threw money at him and is, I believe, still starting.

So there you have it. Two 1sts, one 4th and three 6ths. Only one of them is out of football although I guess AJ could get cut next summer. But even allowing for him, bearing in mind the low draft currency expended this is actually a remarkable record. I doubt many other teams could match it.

AJ Jenkins was a bust . Get over it. 1st round picks bust. Receivers seem to bust quite regularly. That is what the draft is. A lottery. But it is factually incorrect to say that we can't draft receivers.

I'd like to add also, that drafting Wide Receivers or any other position that there is no perfect system for. I believe that the situation this last year to this year was that we lost a probowl safety and needed to replace that player to keep our defense a top notch D and Baalke has added players via draft ironically to help in Aldon Smith's team suspension. I'd like to add also that Walsh, when he was with the 9ers back in the day, did not have perfect drafts across the board, but I believe the parallel between him and the current office is that they don't look at themselves as being perfect, but to look for ways to work those positions into being strengths of the team (e.g. the trade for Baldwin in exchange for Jenkins) and maybe the situations for both WRs will allow for them both to be successful. Also, the draft happened, if my old man brain remembers this correctly, lol, the draft happened before Crabs was injured, which really is outside of anyone's control. If Crabs was injured before the draft, sure, I could see them approaching the draft differently. I believe greater things are on the horizon, in two years, to take a team to the SuperBowl, to me it is very impressive. And to have 13 picks in next year's draft, I believe these are important blocks to building a stronger team. Had it not been for injuries to both Crabtree and Manningham, who knows, we may have been sitting at 5-0 right now, but the 3-2 start, I believe the challenges that the team had to endure this season so far, will make them stronger in the long run. I look at the overall team in the perspective that they approached the game with a certain design in mind and it has not worked and have switched to a more balanced attack, rebounding from a losing streak and have traveled a distance in solving their issues, they have not solved everything yet, but they at least made themselves more competitive and headed in the right direction and really, the challenges that they had to face this year, I feel they are really doing a great job. They still are dealing with injury issues, which is something completely out of their control, but I am hoping that is something that will get better for them as I would love to see the 49ers on top of the football world with their 6th trophy. GO 49ERS!!!!