Originally posted by eonblue:
Couple of stats for you statistical junkies.
TOP vs Seattle 24min
3/13 3rd down conversion
Offensive snap count vs Seattle - 53
Defensive snap count - 76
TOP vs Colts 23 mins
3/12 3rd down conversions
Offensive snap count vs Indy - 53
Defensive snap count vs Indy - 72
The defense is giving up 333 YPG/999 total yards which is 21st in the league. The defense is giving up 5.3 YPP. If Seattle snap counts were switched around the defense gives up 119 yards less.If Indy snap counts were switched around the defense gives up 104 less yards. Logically you can say more time equals more snaps equals more yards. So instead of 999 yard on the season we have 777 on the season which is 259 YPG. That's #3 in the league.
We controlled the clock against GB. 38min of possession and we gave up 3.2 YPC. That's a top 3 number. I believe 100% this is a top 5 defense but the lack of offense has allowed teams to run the ball/run the clock. The offense is allowing the other team to control the rhythm of the game, and this has never been a winning formula for the Niners. The offense is 29th in the league in offensive plays. 23rd in TOP. 29th in 1st downs made. 2nd in penalties. 29th in TO margin. 29th in PPG.
I welcome anyone to convince me the defense is the problem.
Again I ask, who is saying defense is the problem?
And you're being a bit selective in your use of statistics. If you want to present a more balanced picture, then perhaps mention the defense ranks very low in 3rd down %, 1st downs by penalty, rushing 1st downs, rush yds, rushing TDs, turnovers, and points allowed. Are you actually suggesting this is all simply a result of the defense being "tired" because of the terrible 49ers offense? Then you'll need to explain the missed tackles and all the rushing yards surrendered in the first half of the last two games.
You're right, the 49ers did control the clock vs GB. Yet, GB was able to score 4 TDs with only 21 mins TOP...sure, one can just brush it aside by saying it's Aaron Rodgers, so just chalk it up to that and nothing to worry about. But one thing that stood out to me was that in the 4th qtr of that game, after being bottled up most of the game, Lacy started getting 5 ypc.
Have you noticed the 49ers are in nickel a lot? They are and teams are exploiting that on the ground. There's no NT, and then depending on offensive formation, only 6 or 7 in the box. Even when there's 7, one of them is usually a CB (Rogers)...safeties offer little support because they are both lined up 15 yds off the LOS. This creates blocking mismatches and the 49ers have been losing those battles a lot more than they've won them. I don't know the actual stat, but my guess is between the tackles they're surrendering well over 5 ypc, Lynch/Turbin were somewhere around 8-9, and Seahawks had 100+ yds in the 1st half, Colts had ~65 yds rushing in 1st half...it's when teams try to run wide with stretch plays, sweeps, etc. that they encounter the 49ers' strength, which is lateral speed and ability to set an edge (Brooks is very good).
All that said, yes, the 49ers were in the last 2 games up until the 4th qtr. But does that mean we should just ignore some of the negatives leading up to those points of the game all because the scores were still close? And YES, they will look better once the offense starts to click again. But the strength of this defense has been the front 7 and right now they're struggling...and losing A Smith doesn't help. I do think they can get back to Top 10, even Top 5 form, but it's going to take more than just the offense playing better...there are things that need to be cleaned up on defense, and from my armchair I'd say the top 4 are fewer penalties, better tackling, create turnovers, and improved rush D in the nickel.