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2013 - Week 3: Thoughts after watching the game...

Originally posted by DarkKnight1680:
Originally posted by Marvin49:
Originally posted by SoCal9ers:
Alex Smith is laughing his ass off in KC


Mark my words....KC will come crashing back to earth.

This is no indictment on Alex....just sayin I expect them to finish around 8-8 or 9-7.

That's very possible, but that Chief team reminds me a lot of the 2011 Niners. Top notch D, great RB with receiving skills, questionable WR quality, team built on defense, clock control, field position, and not turning it over. Their QB makes the smart, safe play every time unless the situation is desperate, and it works for them.

Compared to the 2013 niners, I like their D line and secondary better, I like their receiver group better, I like their RB better, and so far in 2013 I like their QB better. The 49ers should have the better LB core and the better O-line, and better upside at QB.

If you had to bet right now, Niners vs chiefs total wins, who would you really want to put money on?


SF.

Not even close.

Look...this opening 5 game stretch was always going to be a challenge. There are ALOT of games left and many, many opportunities to improve. We will also be getting a number of guys back.

KC had had a good start to the season. Good for them. I am not about to put the 2011 49ers label on them tho. They were never as bad as their record last year.
  • dj43
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 20,155
Originally posted by Marvin49:
Originally posted by DarkKnight1680:
Originally posted by Marvin49:
Originally posted by SoCal9ers:
Alex Smith is laughing his ass off in KC


Mark my words....KC will come crashing back to earth.

This is no indictment on Alex....just sayin I expect them to finish around 8-8 or 9-7.

That's very possible, but that Chief team reminds me a lot of the 2011 Niners. Top notch D, great RB with receiving skills, questionable WR quality, team built on defense, clock control, field position, and not turning it over. Their QB makes the smart, safe play every time unless the situation is desperate, and it works for them.

Compared to the 2013 niners, I like their D line and secondary better, I like their receiver group better, I like their RB better, and so far in 2013 I like their QB better. The 49ers should have the better LB core and the better O-line, and better upside at QB.

If you had to bet right now, Niners vs chiefs total wins, who would you really want to put money on?


SF.

Not even close.

Look...this opening 5 game stretch was always going to be a challenge. There are ALOT of games left and many, many opportunities to improve. We will also be getting a number of guys back.

KC had had a good start to the season. Good for them. I am not about to put the 2011 49ers label on them tho. They were never as bad as their record last year.

It all depends on injuries. The 49ers should beat the Rams, but then face the Texans here. Even though the home field advantage should help, if Willis or Davis are not healthy, I could easily see the Texans winning that game, even though they have been a bit inconsistent.

After that, the schedule is a lot easier. Still I see the 49ers losing in New Orleans and to the Seahawks here (sorry, I just think Seattle is a better team overall). That would be 4 loses and still facing the Falcons here.

To me it all depends on the health of the team, WR in particular, and the development of Kaepernick. If Manningham can come back to pre-injury form (no given) and Crabtree as well (certainly not a given), along with some contribution from Baldwin, to go along with Boldin (I have no faith in anyone else at this point), they could go 12-4.

Lot of "ifs" but that is the way it goes.
[ Edited by dj43 on Sep 23, 2013 at 2:08 PM ]
Originally posted by thl408:
The Colts repeatedly showed blitz only to peel off into coverage. It think the stacked box causes Kap to go to the pass play. This makes defending the run super easy - just show run blitz and Kap will audible to the pass. Then drop 7 into coverage against the sub par WRs and we now have a QB with happy feet and no open targets.

Kap is still a young buck when it comes to quarterbacking. Putting the gameplan in his hands is premature regardless of what he showed us last season.

Interesting point of view although i didnt ear him say kill kill much during the game
But maybe roman ad a lot more run plays called off by kap
Plausible
  • DBSYM
  • Member
  • Posts: 111
Good afternoon everybody. If anyone would like to see a replay of yesterdays depressing game I have it up on the 2013 playlist.

2013 Regular Season Playlist:
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLFE_tPYRLiHNiW_sBvu3sutiag0godwzx

Direct link to game in HD
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpbqpBndbQs
Originally posted by Micky6:
Originally posted by leakyfausett:
Did you watch the game. 11 for 82 something like 8 for 70 yards in the first half. Frank is just fine he just needs the ball.


Yes... you are bang on here. I would love to see the stat line, but Gore rushing when CK is up under center. Gore must have about 5 yds/carry out of those formations. He was torching the Colts yesterday until they flat out abandoned the run.

They gotta start hitting the quick slants and things. The 9ers receivers are being as badly held as the 9ers DBs are getting flagged, but the ball isn't in the air and the receivers aren't getting the benefit of the doubt. It's becoming clear that Kaep likes his receivers open and does not fire the ball to locations based on timing. The WRs aren't helping things by gaining much separation, but ALL receivers are open when they hit their breaks, but the ball doesn't come out until he sees the opening rather than anticipating the route.
That was the complaint about Smith last year that he would not throw into tight coverage. You are right though there would be some flags thrown if the ball were thrown.
Originally posted by 49erWay:
Yeah Marvin you are always great but I have a sense your frustration is skewing your insight just a pinch for the first time ever.

It looked to me like Gore is just fine, the problem is:

1. Kaeps head is on pluto right now.
2. The game planning is on pluto right now.
3. They are not adjusting the game planning to the game effectively.
4. We are getting penalties like the Raiders used to.

Need some wake up medicine around the house.
Why all the Pluto bashing just because some scientist think it is no longer a planet?
".just saying I'm confident he'll bounce back. Again....with WRs who can't get open that's a challenge...but I have a feeling Roman will come up with something."



Marvin, I enjoy your posts and weekly reviews a lot but this part was entirely disingenuous. There's absolutely nothing to suggest that Roman will "bounce back" or "come up with something." He's yet to draw up a good gameplan against a top defense and yesterday he showed that he simply doesn't get it, he just doesn't, the 49ers were running the ball all over Indy, to the the point where they had that entire defense back on it heels....and then they just stopped. The excuses being made for Roman amaze me. He's made his "brilliant" reputation off of beating up on tomato can defenses such as Buffalo last season and Tampa Bay two seasons ago The way this team showed up against Seattle last season, against Baltimore in the Super Bowl, against Seattle last week, at home against an Indy team that came in ranked 27th in the NFL against the run, giving up over 5 yards a carry, its becoming entirely clear that he simply doesn't get it, probably never will, and that he's in over his head.


Watching the Colts yesterday, they ran that Harbaugh/Stanford offense against a quality defense and did so better than I can remember Roman doing in a long time. They stuck with the run, they had timely quick passes, slants, got the ball out in a hurry, weren't really even looking far downfield, they had back-breaking long drives, won the battle of possession, basically, the Colts beat the 49ers running the 2011 version of the offense at a very high and efficient level.

I only hope that it doesn't take Jim as long to separate himself from Roman as it did for his brother to get rid of Cam Cameron.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Sep 23, 2013 at 3:04 PM ]
Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:

1st Q
- nice run Gore for 7 yds (RUN)
- incomplete pass on 2nd (either inaccurate, ball was tipped, or Kyle W ran a slightly - different route than expected) (PASS)

- nice draw to Gore for 5 yds (RUN)
- stuffed Gore run, 1 yd gain (RUN)

2nd Q
- Franky G run for 3 yds (RUN)
- false start on 76. (PENALTY)

- Gore stuffed for 1 yd gain (RUN)
- pass pro was there, throw to either 49er receiver (81 and 89) in area was wide and incomplete. VanceMac had steps on an out route vs LB, but Kaep never sees him. now 3rd and 10 (PASS)

3rd Q
- time in pocket.. good throw to VMac for 6 yds (PASS)
- handoff Gore stuffed, no gain (RUN)

- read option, and Kaep hesitated to get tackled 5 yds lost... should have handed it to Gore. (RUN)
- Fake throw, handoff delay for minimal gain... 3rd and 13 (RUN)

4th Q
- pocket was good.. Kaep passes up Boldin wide open over the middle to throw a strike to Celek on a seam route.. inaccurate and incomplete (PASS)
- quick-hitter RB screen to HUnter lined up wide... blocking and pursuit allowed minimal gain of 4 (RUN)

- one read throw to the sidelines for Boldin, but uncatchable... pass pro was good (PASS)
- good pocket.. looks like a nice deep pass here to Moore, but a tough catch that should have been made. (PASS)

Thanks SO much for doing this! Boy, does anyone ELSE see a very obvious pattern here. I only highlighted the first two plays of each failed series (which is all but one anyhow).

The pattern here is obviously a run then pass combination to start each drive of the first half. Then in the second half we made the momumental switch to pass and then run. We throw in one run-run (first half) or pass-pass (second half) in there but if I'm a DC, this is about as easy as it comes. With absolutely no fear of us even TAKING a deep shot down field, you simply play your entire defense in press, man-to-man, and no further than 15 yards back. In the first half, we will try to estblish a run (naturally)...shocker, I know. So simply stack the box on first downs, stuff it and know the second down will be a pass. Then expect a reverse in the second half. That said, the key here is that whatever IS called on first down, expect the opposite on the next play. Period.

The good news here is that we actually got a few positive yards on a few of these first downs (even by running) which is a big big deal for us. No excuses not to pick up 2nd and 3rd and shorts. Ever!
Originally posted by LoneWolf:
Whether people may want to believe it or not Roman is actually a great coordinater, even get Gores stamp of approval, I really think the issue may possibly be adding a staff positiin we didnt need in the first place, Manigini was hired as the offensive consultant to help he offense and roman read and diagnose the defense, but our offense seems like it has got no real consultation because every defensive play made against them has seemed like a surprise to the offense. I really think Mangini is dead weight and not pulling his own on the staff. He is the only real addition to the staff in the offseason, those calling for romans job need to think about this, romans play calling got us to the playoffs and great winning records over the past two seasons. We have now beat the read option to death, overused the pistol formation and were our game plan for the offense is consistantly go nowhere fast. Over the last two years we have used many new formations and didnt overuse them now all of a suddon were going to beat one single formation and a trick play to death, this is not typical or roman, harbaugh or our offense. The coaches do have a freddie p aoft in there ear and his name is eric mangini. We didnt need an offensive consultant and imo we are better off without him.


Your point would make more sense if the offense hadn't looked like this previously. Go back to the Minnesota game last season, the two Rams games, the game against Seattle, the start of the Superbowl. Stop blaming Mangini, this offense has looked flat more often than I can count and you can always depend on Roman to go after a defense's strengths and not their weaknesses. Look at the Rams last season, playing 10 yards off the WR...........wow, are we going to get some quick hitters, slants, screens...etc? f**k no, deep shots downfield that didn't materialize. Yesterday you're playing at home, against one of the worst run-defending teams in the NFL, what do you do? Completely get away from the run.


People need to stop making excuses for Roman. Nobody doubts that he's bright, nobody doubt that he's an encyclopedia of football knowledge, the issue is preparing properly for a defense, going after their weaknesses, making in-game adjustments, have the chess-players ability to look 5 moves ahead at what the defense is trying to do, Roman has none of that.
[ Edited by Phoenix49ers on Sep 23, 2013 at 3:10 PM ]
Originally posted by Afrikan:
not talking about salary cap decisions.

Gray
Cam Johnson (Seattle stacks up on pass rushers and it has payed off for them with their other injuries...we on the other had keep Special team "Aces")
Ginn- for special teams and speed on the outside

wish we could've speedsters who could get separation just with their speed or threat of their speed... Owusu or Ricardo Lockette.... again we are struggling to get separation...most of our receivers don't have elite speed..... it would be nice to have at least one guy who might stretch the field.

Exactly which of those guys are on an NFL roster????
Originally posted by NCommand:
Thanks SO much for doing this! Boy, does anyone ELSE see a very obvious pattern here. I only highlighted the first two plays of each failed series (which is all but one anyhow).

The pattern here is obviously a run then pass combination to start each drive of the first half. Then in the second half we made the momumental switch to pass and then run. We throw in one run-run (first half) or pass-pass (second half) in there but if I'm a DC, this is about as easy as it comes. With absolutely no fear of us even TAKING a deep shot down field, you simply play your entire defense in press, man-to-man, and no further than 15 yards back. In the first half, we will try to estblish a run (naturally)...shocker, I know. So simply stack the box on first downs, stuff it and know the second down will be a pass. Then expect a reverse in the second half. That said, the key here is that whatever IS called on first down, expect the opposite on the next play. Period.

The good news here is that we actually got a few positive yards on a few of these first downs (even by running) which is a big big deal for us. No excuses not to pick up 2nd and 3rd and shorts. Ever!

Happy to make time to... we have to dig to see what's up, and for me, live game action clouds much of that.

edit: dig
[ Edited by Mr.Mcgibblets on Sep 23, 2013 at 3:19 PM ]
Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
Happy to make time to... we have to dig to see what's up, and for me, live game action clouds much of that.

edit: dig

Now I wonder if this is a common pattern for every game, making it easy for DC's and their game planning.
Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
".just saying I'm confident he'll bounce back. Again....with WRs who can't get open that's a challenge...but I have a feeling Roman will come up with something."



Marvin, I enjoy your posts and weekly reviews a lot but this part was entirely disingenuous. There's absolutely nothing to suggest that Roman will "bounce back" or "come up with something." He's yet to draw up a good gameplan against a top defense and yesterday he showed that he simply doesn't get it, he just doesn't, the 49ers were running the ball all over Indy, to the the point where they had that entire defense back on it heels....and then they just stopped. The excuses being made for Roman amaze me. He's made his "brilliant" reputation off of beating up on tomato can defenses such as Buffalo last season and Tampa Bay two seasons ago The way this team showed up against Seattle last season, against Baltimore in the Super Bowl, against Seattle last week, at home against an Indy team that came in ranked 27th in the NFL against the run, giving up over 5 yards a carry, its becoming entirely clear that he simply doesn't get it, probably never will, and that he's in over his head.


Watching the Colts yesterday, they ran that Harbaugh/Stanford offense against a quality defense and did so better than I can remember Roman doing in a long time. They stuck with the run, they had timely quick passes, slants, got the ball out in a hurry, weren't really even looking far downfield, they had back-breaking long drives, won the battle of possession, basically, the Colts beat the 49ers running the 2011 version of the offense at a very high and efficient level.

I only hope that it doesn't take Jim as long to separate himself from Roman as it did for his brother to get rid of Cam Cameron.


Right...because in the past Roman has been completely rigid, would never alter his gameplan and that is evidensed by long losing streaks. They would just keep doing the same thing over and over again and they would just keep losing because he has no idea what he's doing. Wait...

Dude...seriously?

We can all get annoyed with him for getting away from the run or at times trying to be "too cute" with stuff....but if anything he's been flexible and adapted his scheme to suit his personnel. That hasn't happened yet this year, but he's done it in the past so I'm not going to make the assumption that he's unable or unwilling to do so again.

Yes...the Colts were esentially running the old Stanford offense. The one that Roman and Shaw ran together. Its the exact same one we use now....wait....that changed too...he adapted to a new QB.

OK...I give up...I dunno what you're talking about.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Now I wonder if this is a common pattern for every game, making it easy for DC's and their game planning.

You may be on your own in that endeavor ( ) ... I didn't keep either of the first 2 games on my DVR.
Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
Originally posted by NCommand:
Now I wonder if this is a common pattern for every game, making it easy for DC's and their game planning.

You may be on your own in that endeavor ( ) ... I didn't keep either of the first 2 games on my DVR.

I deleted as well. ..thank you whomeam though! Video review fr all!