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Fangio's Defensive History:

I'll preface this by saying that I thought the D played very well on Sunday and the score was not indicative of that. That being said, when Fangio was first hired, I was pretty excited, but a little worried about the fact that historically, his defenses got statistically worse every year he was DC. In particular, I recall his defenses PPG going up, total yards going up and sacks going down. A stat that got thrown out the other day on 95.7 the game got me thinking about this again. The last 8 games (including the playoffs), the Niners have given up an average of 29 PPG. Going back and looking at 2011 and 2012 (I won't use 2013 stats since we are only 2 games in), you can see the same pattern of statistical regression that has followed Fangio throughout his pro career. I still like his as a DC, but is anyone else concerned about this coupled with his insistence on not using much of a rotation? And no I do not believe the sky is falling, I still have the same confidence in this team winning the SB that I had going into the season.



2011-Allowed 229 points (14.3/g), 42 sacks 77.25 RPG



2012-Allowed 273 points (17.1/g), 38.0 sacks 94.18 RPG
i'm not sure on the stats and what not but i know for a fact the 1996 panthers D was better than the 1995 panthers D despite what any yards per game stats want to say.
I think we have to look at level of competition as well. In 2011, the 49ers played an easier schedule compared to what they faced in 2012. You referred to the last 8 games of 2012, we know that the 2 most important players along the Dline were banged up and not playing at 100%. That is a factor, not an excuse, imo. 2011 was an anomaly. The rate at which they were able to generate turnovers was ridiculous and would not be sustainable.

I think the defense that played in 2012 before Smith and Smith got injured is what we should aim for. As for Fangio's defenses deteriorating as seasons pass, I think the lack of a rotation can play a role there. Can you list some numbers on his history, prior to being on the 49ers, that show his defenses regressing?
  • Jcool
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I think the 49ers are rotating a lot better on defense this year. They showed both Smith's on the sideline a few times on Sunday.
  • Garcia
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The more you win, your schedule becomes harder every year you face the best of whatever division you play.

Plus our division has gotten better so it makes sense.
Yeah it's a fair question. One thing I've really noted was how vanilla our scheme is and has been and it seems teams have figured it out. Run right at Justin/Aldon. Challenge our CB's deep (if nothing else you'll get a P.I.). Also, exploit the middle of the field in the RZ (i.e. pick on Whitner). We struggle covering RB's out of the backfield and crossing routes seem to give us fits. For a 3-4 defense, we blitzed the least amount of any team last year. Really? We still aren't rotating the front 7 (except when someone gets injured). But the big drop off has been on INT's and strip fumbles. I have seen big differences in technique by our CB's. For instance, less coming off routes and undercutting others fr INT's. I also see CB's in the trail position only playing the ball once the WR makes the catch rather than keeping the WR in front of them, eyes in the backfield and breaking on he ball (esp. along the sidelines). We STILL don't have a 2-gap NT and would Fangio ever go to a 4-man DL even against power running teams like Seattle? The most exotic thing I've seen is him switching Aldon and Brooks to either side.
  • Chico
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Our D does look a little softer after Fangio's first year. It's just the nature of the beast, eventually teams are going to figure us out. This is where coaching is crucial. it's time for our coaches to mix it up and throw the offense's off...
Weren't people trying to make a trend out of what Fangio did in his third year with the Colts and Panthers the past two seasons?

Think about who we played in 2011 vs. 2012. This is a situation where you can't use the numbers to tell the entire story. Also to put the 29 points on the D this past Sunday is wrong. I was as impressed by this D in the Seattle game as I have been in awhile. Seattle when you really think about it couldn't do much. If it weren't for the penalties and our offense working for Seattle, they would've have scored more than 13.
Fangio is just fine, and so is the defense.
Originally posted by crabman82:
i'm not sure on the stats and what not but i know for a fact the 1996 panthers D was better than the 1995 panthers D despite what any yards per game stats want to say.

yeah but the '94 Panthers D was sooo much better, did not allow a single yard or point
Originally posted by swayze:
Originally posted by crabman82:
i'm not sure on the stats and what not but i know for a fact the 1996 panthers D was better than the 1995 panthers D despite what any yards per game stats want to say.

yeah but the '94 Panthers D was sooo much better, did not allow a single yard or point

Just like the Jags.
It isn't Fangio's fault that Rogers is getting older and slower. Or his fault that Culliver tore his ACL. Certainly isn't his fault that Baalke chose not to pay for Soap or RJF... well maybe that is his fault if Fangio said they'd be fine with Ian Williams and Dorsey instead. Bottom line is that Rogers and Asomugha are showing their age and you can't put that all on the DC
Nothing is wrong with the defense. They were shutting Russ down before the hour delay and they did a respectable job against the best QB in the league. The mistakes they made last game was mental errors at best (Aldon UR, Brooks FM). The offense kept putting them in impossible situations, they were tired and worn out. Hopefully the offense will get back to basics and next week we will see what this d is about vs. Luck.
This fantasy football approach to stats is killing objectivity.
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
This fantasy football approach to stats is killing objectivity.

LoL, so true. I think another problem is that some people expected us to have that 2011 defense for a long time, we kind of got spoiled by how good they played and how healthy they were. I don't think that 2011 defense lost a single player to injury... not even those nagging injuries that slow players down. This year already the 49ers have lost Culliver and Williams for the season, along with the guys that have minor injuries like Willis and RayMac