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My Mock Outlook to 2014 and 2015 Cap Wise

Originally posted by BrianGO:
Flacco's deal looks crazy. But it just proves the point even more. The team will do anything to keep their quarterback.

I don't think we have so much committed money that we will be forced into a Flacco-like deal. Perhaps it will look more like Rodgers or Ryans deals.

My main point, is that fans have to be prepared to lose something roughly like this in the next year or two:
Goodwin
Gore
Whitner
Rogers
Brown
Culliver
Boldin
Miller
Brooks
Dorsey
Crabtree
Iupati
Manningham


Most of these players will be gone.
But losing most of these guy's won't destroy our team. We had a great draft, and we are loaded with picks next year too. We'll have to lose some good players, but Kap MUST be signed, and Aldon is nearly another "must".

If we dont retain Boldin, Crabs, or Mario then we are SOL. One of them needs to be back. Plus Cully. Some players may be sacraficed to keep Kap. But I dont see Brooks cut next year, he does too much for us. He is still a good OLB, and a good starter.

Gore stays, he mentors Lattimore a few more years. He hasnt yet, Lattimore isnt allowed near practice. Only tips can be given.

Rogers can go, Goodwin, Whitner, and Brown, but it doesnt save money, as only rogers cut saves money. Plus the cap is flat. So the expiring contracts mean nothing. No cap space retained.

We have just under 7M for 2014, and you expect 20M a yr? How can we do that, when we couldnt for Peyton Manning?
Originally posted by BrianGO:
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
I agree we need to keep Kap. But did you even look at the last 3 years of Flacco's deal

2016= $28.55M
2017= $31.15M
2018= $24.75M

You're telling me they were forced to give Flacco 28M, 31M and $24M in last 3 years? They could of franchised him for fraction of the 120.6M cost.

The reason they did the deal was for cap room, they had no room to franchise him, so they were stuck signing him to a ridiculous deal.

Kap will get paid, but he isnt selfish, and he has only 26 games after 2013 under his belt as starts. Flacco has over 5yrs worth. 26 games doesn't equal $20M a yr. What if we fall short in playoffs, or Kap doesnt get MVP. Not all pro, then is he is still a 20M QB? Even with 26 starts.


Flacco's deal looks crazy. But it just proves the point even more. The team will do anything to keep their quarterback.

I don't think we have so much committed money that we will be forced into a Flacco-like deal. Perhaps it will look more like Rodgers or Ryans deals.

My main point, is that fans have to be prepared to lose something roughly like this in the next year or two:
Goodwin
Gore
Whitner
Rogers
Brown
Culliver
Boldin
Miller
Brooks
Dorsey
Crabtree
Iupati
Manningham


Most of these players will be gone.
But losing most of these guy's won't destroy our team. We had a great draft, and we are loaded with picks next year too. We'll have to lose some good players, but Kap MUST be signed, and Aldon is nearly another "must".

I think most fans are already prepared for this. I'm expecting to "lose" everyone on that list, with maybes on Iupati and Manningham, and not likelys on Boldin (shouldn't be a hard extension to come to if he likes it here), Gore, and Culliver.

We won't really know anything until this offseason when the real talks begin. For one, knowing how this office does things, Iupati should already be extended by that time. If he isn't, I wouldn't be shocked if we go with a guard or center high or in the late rounds for depth and move Kilgore and Looney into the starting lineup.

What would be great (and too perfect) IMO would be if we could trade the players we can't hang onto, like Carlos Rogers. Players like Carlos Rogers, Donte Whitner, etc aren't bad players by a long shot. They are just the "weak" links on an elite defense.
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
This is one of those base case scenarios. I'd love to see Gore here through 2016. Basically play out 2014 as the starter and then the final two years easing him into a back-up/coaching role if he is willing to do so. I'd like to see Lattimore eased in and Kendall Hunter given a greater share of the carries (this seems to be the trajectory for Hunter anyway based on Game 1), as Gore is eased out. If he can teach our backs his vision (one of the best ever to me) and pass protection skills, we will have the best running back group for years to come.

I think we have been slowly working guys in for Gore over the past 2+ years. If you remember before we had Hunter Gore never came out and would run until his legs were dead. Now you see him calling in guys all the time so he can get a breather. I think it was something like 65 to 35 for the rest of the group in 2011. Last year it's harder to calculate but with Kap (and not all designed) was like 59 Gore, 41 Kap/Hunter/Dixon/James. Kap should run a lot less this year (depending on the team too) but I'd say Gore should be around 50-60% this year and Hunter/James carries should be up. In 2014 I could see something like 40-50% Gore and a split of the other percentage for Hunter, James and Lattimore. I could see us using a 3 headed attack more so than the 1 with relief style we are using now. Then if Gore is gone in 2015 I would expect Lattimore/Hunter to get most of the carries with James being the change of pace guy. If Gore is back in 2015 I don't know what will happen. Would be tough but we might have to let him go after 2014. Who knows maybe we could trade him but he's have to be under contract first. I'd hate to see that but if he can still go in 2015, 2016 could we turn down say a 3rd round pick for him? We will cross that bridge when we come to it. I think a lot will depend on how the other RBs look and how much is Gore willing to take for a paycut/extension.
[ Edited by Gore_21 on Sep 12, 2013 at 12:39 AM ]
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
If we dont retain Boldin, Crabs, or Mario then we are SOL. One of them needs to be back. Plus Cully. Some players may be sacraficed to keep Kap. But I dont see Brooks cut next year, he does too much for us. He is still a good OLB, and a good starter.

Gore stays, he mentors Lattimore a few more years. He hasnt yet, Lattimore isnt allowed near practice. Only tips can be given.

Rogers can go, Goodwin, Whitner, and Brown, but it doesnt save money, as only rogers cut saves money. Plus the cap is flat. So the expiring contracts mean nothing. No cap space retained.

We have just under 7M for 2014, and you expect 20M a yr? How can we do that, when we couldnt for Peyton Manning?


Brooks, Rogers and Gore add up to about 20 mil.
We might have to wait another year to sign Aldon. With a flat cap, Crabs and Iupati are both gone.
Maybe Lee, Dawson, Ray Mac, and VD. Would we save money if we cut VD? That would probably add up to another 20 million for those four.
Originally posted by Gore_21:
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
This is one of those base case scenarios. I'd love to see Gore here through 2016. Basically play out 2014 as the starter and then the final two years easing him into a back-up/coaching role if he is willing to do so. I'd like to see Lattimore eased in and Kendall Hunter given a greater share of the carries (this seems to be the trajectory for Hunter anyway based on Game 1), as Gore is eased out. If he can teach our backs his vision (one of the best ever to me) and pass protection skills, we will have the best running back group for years to come.

I think we have been slowly working guys in for Gore over the past 2+ years. If you remember before we had Hunter Gore never came out and would run until his legs were dead. Now you see him calling in guys all the time so he can get a breather. I think it was something like 65 to 35 for the rest of the group in 2011. Last year it's harder to calculate but with Kap (and not all designed) was like 59 Gore, 41 Kap/Hunter/Dixon/James. Kap should run a lot less this year (depending on the team too) but I'd say Gore should be around 50-60% this year and Hunter/James carries should be up. In 2014 I could see something like 40-50% Gore and a split of the other percentage for Hunter, James and Lattimore. I could see us using a 3 headed attack more so than the 1 with relief style we are using now. Then if Gore is gone in 2015 I would expect Lattimore/Hunter to get most of the carries with James being the change of pace guy. If Gore is back in 2015 I don't know what will happen. Would be tough but we might have to let him go after 2014. Who knows maybe we could trade him but he's have to be under contract first. I'd hate to see that but if he can still go in 2015, 2016 could we turn down say a 3rd round pick for him? We will cross that bridge when we come to it. I think a lot will depend on how the other RBs look and how much is Gore willing to take for a paycut/extension.

One thing about Gore is that he has never come across as a me first kind of guy when it comes to money. Remember the first extension he signed after his 1,695 yard season? I think it was five years for 28 million. Had he had that Mike Wallace type of mentality, he would've gone for 7 million +. I can see Gore doing a friendly two year deal for 2015-2016. In terms of carries, because of his talent/vision/patience, I think he can still be effective at 32 and 33 (the ages he would be in those seasons) as long as he isn't taking much of a pounding (150 carries or less per season) and could be called on during the playoffs. A good comparison would be Jerome Bettis during those final two years, though Gore would have a much better yards per carry.
I'd say there is a good chance these guys are gone after this year: Goodwin, Whitner, Rogers, Brown, Manningham. Rogers will have to restructure or get cut, I think Goodwin and Whitner will be gone. Manningham is up in the air yet. Still I'm prepared to move on from those guys. Biggest loss is Brown.

Then after 2014: Dorsey or Skuta I wouldn't lose sleep over but we will see how they do. Miller will be cheap to re-sign since he is a FB and I see him being around for a long time to come. Crabtree might get tagged for 2015 but could very well be gone. Iupati I think we will have re-signed by the end of the year. Culliver I'd like to keep but he strikes me as a guy who will want more than he is worth.

Brooks will be with us next year for sure IMO. I think it's 2016 where we would save like 7 plus mil on the cap and only have a 1 something hit so he's most likely gone by then. 2015 we might ask him to restructure depending on how Lemonier is coming along.

Of course want Kap and Aldon back but I sign Kap for 15-18 million a year before I sign Aldon for that price. Either way Aldon will probably be with us through 2015 at the least; like AB said we will extend that option if need be. We have time to work on him. I think we will start with Iupati, then after the season Kap and the easier players Miller/Hunter/Kilgore (if center of the future). Culliver could be gone if he wants too much. He might be a little harder. Aldon could be the most difficult of all imo. He doesn't seem like a give a discount type like Kap. I think both will sign for cheaper than what some think though. I could see Kap in the 5 year 90-95 range and Aldon in the 5 year 70-75 range.

Still like I have been saying it's a youth movement and we will have to lose a lot of good solid vets to save for the future. I'm prepared to lose a lot of guys; we will see a lot of new faces for the new stadium. I'm prepared to lose someone like Crabtree as well. We just have to keep drafting well to keep the run going. We are so loaded with picks next year expect some trade downs to get future picks. I remember the dark era when we never had 1 FA worth re-signing. Now we have enough talent to make 2 teams and still compete with the Jags, Jets and Raiders.
[ Edited by Gore_21 on Sep 12, 2013 at 12:59 AM ]
Originally posted by BrianGO:
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
If we dont retain Boldin, Crabs, or Mario then we are SOL. One of them needs to be back. Plus Cully. Some players may be sacraficed to keep Kap. But I dont see Brooks cut next year, he does too much for us. He is still a good OLB, and a good starter.

Gore stays, he mentors Lattimore a few more years. He hasnt yet, Lattimore isnt allowed near practice. Only tips can be given.

Rogers can go, Goodwin, Whitner, and Brown, but it doesnt save money, as only rogers cut saves money. Plus the cap is flat. So the expiring contracts mean nothing. No cap space retained.

We have just under 7M for 2014, and you expect 20M a yr? How can we do that, when we couldnt for Peyton Manning?


Brooks, Rogers and Gore add up to about 20 mil.
We might have to wait another year to sign Aldon. With a flat cap, Crabs and Iupati are both gone.
Maybe Lee, Dawson, Ray Mac, and VD. Would we save money if we cut VD? That would probably add up to another 20 million for those four.

We aren't gonna cut VD and Ray Mac, or Lee. Brooks stays. Rogers gets cut, Gore takes a reduction, he i=has earned the right to start opening day in Levi's stadium. We owe him that.
If Baldwin shows something, we can get him to take a pay cut to stay, or extension team friendly of course.

Also Aldon could reduce his base to be apart of his bonus.
We definitely would look to restructure guys before cutting them. We have for the past few years. I could see them wanting Lee to restructure maybe 1-3 years down the road. He got what he deserved but still is making a lot. Baldwin I don't know if we have any leverage, he doesnt seem like the type who would be willing to take a paycut to stay here. I see him spending most of the year on inactive then we have him hit the jugs next year, have him work and improve and see what he has next pre-season and see if he makes it. Brooks probably won't get cut next year. To me not worth 4.5 in dead money to save 3. Then for 2015 we would save 5.35 and have 3 in dead money so it's a possibility if Lemonier is doing well but again we much prefer to restructure then cut. It saves a lot of money. If Brooks hasn't restructured I could see him gone before 2016... 7.35 savings and only 1.5 dead money seems like that would be the time if he is still with us.

Also, AB... if Rogers wouldn't agree to take a pay cut after this season and we couldn't trade him and we cut him we would save 5.105 mil and have 2.989 in dead money. My question being we could designate him as a June 1st cut and be able to split that 2.989 in dead money over 2 years right? We could split it however we wanted or is it a straight down the middle 1.5 each year?
[ Edited by Gore_21 on Sep 12, 2013 at 1:25 AM ]
Originally posted by Gore_21:
We definitely would look to restructure guys before cutting them. We have for the past few years. I could see them wanting Lee to restructure maybe 1-3 years down the road. He got what he deserved but still is making a lot. Baldwin I don't know if we have any leverage, he doesnt seem like the type who would be willing to take a paycut to stay here. I see him spending most of the year on inactive then we have him hit the jugs next year, have him work and improve and see what he has next pre-season and see if he makes it. Brooks probably won't get cut next year. To me not worth 4.5 in dead money to save 3. Then for 2015 we would save 5.35 and have 3 in dead money so it's a possibility if Lemonier is doing well but again we much prefer to restructure then cut. It saves a lot of money. If Brooks hasn't restructured I could see him gone before 2016... 7.35 savings and only 1.5 dead money seems like that would be the time if he is still with us.

Also, AB... if Rogers wouldn't agree to take a pay cut after this season and we couldn't trade him and we cut him we would save 5.105 mil and have 2.989 in dead money. My question being we could designate him as a June 1st cut and be able to split that 2.989 in dead money over 2 years right? We could split it however we wanted or is it a straight down the middle 1.5 each year?
How do all these guys NOT seem like the type to take a paycut? I'm not following.
Originally posted by LifelongNiner:
How do all these guys NOT seem like the type to take a paycut? I'm not following.

Not saying it can't happen but just seem like he might not accept and that we would look to many others first. My first reason would be he will have been with us not even a year by the time we would potentially ask him to take a pay cut so no not like he has loyalties to us. Big difference between a guy with the team one year and 5-10 who wants to stay with us. Second reason would be the guy signed a 4 year, 7.5 million dollar deal which isn't that much money in nfl terms. Not like he is on his 2nd or 3rd contract having made 20, 30, 40+ million. Might be a better chance a guy who has a made a lot would be willing to restructure and take a pay cut then someone who is on their first contract and isn't make that much to begin with. In my opinion there is a big difference between asking a guy making 10 million next year to come down to 7 then a guy who's making 1.4 to come down to 500k. So naturally not saving us that much money. We can save a lot more on the cap having the big guys restructure first before taking the time for the little guys.
[ Edited by Gore_21 on Sep 12, 2013 at 2:54 AM ]
I sadly think Frank Gore gets cut after the 2013 season. His cap number is 6.45 and there appears to be no or minimal dead money there. With a healthy Lattimore, Hunter, and LMJ? I think loyalty will go right out the window. It's at least a real possibility that we may need to accept.
Originally posted by BrianGO:
Brooks, Rogers and Gore add up to about 20 mil.
We might have to wait another year to sign Aldon. With a flat cap, Crabs and Iupati are both gone.
Maybe Lee, Dawson, Ray Mac, and VD. Would we save money if we cut VD? That would probably add up to another 20 million for those four.

Can't see VD going anywhere until maybe after the 2014 season. Then, the dead money would only be about 2 mil. We cut him loose after this season, and we are talking 6.2 dead money hit.

RayMac is another guy that (contract-wise) I can't see departing till after the 2014 season. Andy Lee's contract is actually lower and fine in the 2014 and 2015 seasons. Can't see it as wise to cut him loose till at least 2016. Dawson's only on a 1 yr deal.

I think Crabtree and Iupati are goners, if they want top dollar. Frankly, I don't think we will need them that badly. Would be nice.. but hey, gotta sacrifice somewhere.
I don't see Vernon and Ray taking pay cuts. Vernon should have a big year with us airing it out more. He'll want that elite TE money.
Originally posted by Mr.Mcgibblets:
I sadly think Frank Gore gets cut after the 2013 season. His cap number is 6.45 and there appears to be no or minimal dead money there. With a healthy Lattimore, Hunter, and LMJ? I think loyalty will go right out the window. It's at least a real possibility that we may need to accept.

Hopefully we extend Hunter before he gets the start. We'll get the discount that way. Otherwise, once he starts putting up big numbers, he'll want starting RB money.