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My Mock Outlook to 2014 and 2015 Cap Wise

If the structuring of the deal isn't friendly, then the 49ers wont sign the player. They wont risk future cap dollars, look at Goldson and Walker. RJF, previous years, Franklin, all that wanted top dollar. Didn't make sense.

Kap will have played 26 games, 26 games doesn't equal a 120M deal. Flacco has a ring, plus been a starter for over 5 years. Rodgers 1 SB, MVP, all pro, and i league since 2005. He took a short term 65M ish deal to begin with. Kap wouldn't be selfish to screw the team like Flacco did. 20M+ in any year isnt good for business.

Aldon is replaceable IMO. If he wants more than Clay, tag him or let him hit FA. $60M is fair for him. He isnt a DE, so thats why Mario got 90M, Clay gpot like 60M+, you pay based on position value. He plays OLB most of the time. He isnt a DE by any means, and wont get 100M.

The cap is flat, people need to understand that. Teams wont mortgage the future in FA on 1 player anymore.

The Ravens, Steelers, Jets, all signed QBs to big deals, and are cap strained next year, same with New Orleans.

I hate saying this, but I know the business side, better than anyone here. I am not being arrogant. But in the 12+ years of doing this, the 49ers are one team that wont mortgage the future. They will only sign team friendly deals. Anyone to think we should give Kap a Flacco type deal is crazy, loo at the structure, he will have to restructure in 3 years when he has a $21M cap figure or so. We can't afford that with all the players we have to sign.

Key guys like Hunter, MIller, Kilgore will cost a litte, but still adds u. Cully, Iupati, Aldon, Kap and Crabs are the big 5, then Dorsey, Skuta are FAs too after 2014, also Gore(He will redo his deal, and extend 2 more years to mentor Lattimore, he needs more time to develop, Hunter is still young, so he isn't viewed IMO as a guy to mentor Lattimore, who would want Hunter's job. Vets like Gore, Boldin would sign team friendly deals and mentor young players, then retire. Justin did it.

Let me ask you this, would you rather mortgage the cap to sign Kap to a $120.6M deal, and Aldon to 100M deal over getting them to get friendly deals. They can still cash in again in 4 years, like most players do anyway. We also always sign our top players to new deals with years left on contract. See Vernon, Willis, Lee, Bowman, A.Davis.

Mario Manningham would be a great guy to have, as long as he is 100% healthy. I rather keep him, then risk another AJ Jenkins type pick. If I was GM, I wouldn't franchise Crabs. I would offer a 1 deal take it or leave it. Then if no, sign Boldin and Mario, have them, plus Patton, Baldwin, draft a few in rd 3 ish. Like we did with Patton, find a gem later on.

Our needs are simple. CB, SS, WR, OL Depth. Sign Kap, Aldon, then worry about Iupati, And Crabs.

These are the guys who would require new contracts to keep long term.

Hunter
Miller
Kilgore
Aldon
Kap
Cully
Crabs
Iupati
Manningham
Boldin

Forget Brown, Whitner, Goodwin, they wont be back, so no need to worry, we draft a new SS, and CB, and have Kilore take over at C.

And remember, we will eventually sign Reid to an extension after 2015 when allowed. Same with the good picks made, like Vance, Patton, Tank, Dial, Daniels, etc...

Again, not trying to be arrogant. Some are new here, and may or may not know me, I have a website, have been doing this since around 2000 ish. I did it on a old yahoo free site. Then NCH for the past 7-8 years. I started in 2006, took ownership over in 2009, and have been trying to improve the site since.
Just a guess but I dont think Manningham is in long term plans. Patton is #3 next year. Agree that Aldon is replaceable, particularly if he wants an absurd amount of $$$. Same with Crabs - we wont pay the insane amount he'll want. Wish we could hang onto TBrown as I'm VERY nervous about our CBs next year.
[ Edited by loxdoggie on Sep 11, 2013 at 8:57 PM ]
AB, don't make the new members cry. Just kidding guys, I can see why some think it might be to early to discuss extending Dorsey, Skuta and Manningham. We will see how they do and a lot of your plan is hoping guys will restructure and lower their salary which we have gotten many guys to do but there is no guarantee guys will do it. With Manningham I think he might be the best out of the bunch with Moore and Williams but depends on how he comes back from injury and if we can count on him. If we can't then probably have to move on. I would probably only re-sign him to a 1 year, maybe 2 for cheap if we he comes back and does well.

As for Kap though, I wold agree will be closer to 90 million than 120. I think he will give us a discount; will depend on how he does this year but still think he wants to win and won't want to take up all our cap like Flacco. Really, I think it's nothing but the agent and the player's egos getting in the way when you think about the difference between 90 and 120 million. If you can't live off 90 million in your life something is wrong with you. It's kind of a well he got this much (even if overpaid) then we should get this much. Like AB said the teams like the Broncos, Ravens, Packers and Saints who are paying their QB 20 or so million a year don't have as much to spend on the rest of their team and they suffer because of it. You look at those teams and they have holes all over the place because they can't sign or re-sign other players. Means you have to draft extra well to fill in those gaps with dirt cheap rookies until their rookie contract is up and then you can't afford to pay them and have to start all over with another rookie. Anyways, Kaepernick and his parents have lived in the area for the last how many decades.. he's been a 49ers (and Packers when he came from Wisc) his whole life, he wants to be here and he wants to win. I just don't see him being greedy. He should give us a nice deal to leave money for the rest of the guys we need to re-sign.

Aldon on the other hand just not sure about. I think he wants to win but not sure if he wants to win like Kap and he might want more than 60 million. I think he has a 2015 option so maybe we start with Iupati who we are working on already... then after the season Kap and Miller/Hunter/Kilgore (if center of the future) who should be easy to take care of. Culliver might be a little harder; he's good but I think he's the type that thinks they are better than they are. I could see Aldon coming later and Crabtree maybe not at all. Possibly a franchise tag in 2015 but I know we don't want to do that because it eats a lot of money.
[ Edited by Gore_21 on Sep 11, 2013 at 10:24 PM ]
All I know is Kap and Aldon MUST be paid. You don't want to be cheap when it come to quarterbacks and pass rushers. Build and maintain the rest of the roster around those 2 players.
Dont let my 31 post fool anyone. Im not new i've been coming to this site since 2007, 2008 maybe even earlier but i cant remember. I hate to admit but i've been a very heavy lurker. As far as AB is concerned i know your knowledgeable hence why i felt inclined to engage you in this very interesting disscussion. I have a acute interest of the business side of the game that few share. Another reason I felt inclined to engage in this conversion. It just turns out we just dont agree on what we think is gonna happen. Like I said before i hope your right AB but from Kap's point a view im not sure. Cry? Child Please! JK
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Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Aldon Smith is going to make a lot more money than that. He's the best pass rusher in the league.

Let Gore go
Originally posted by Gore_21:
AB, don't make the new members cry. Just kidding guys, I can see why some think it might be to early to discuss extending Dorsey, Skuta and Manningham. We will see how they do and a lot of your plan is hoping guys will restructure and lower their salary which we have gotten many guys to do but there is no guarantee guys will do it. With Manningham I think he might be the best out of the bunch with Moore and Williams but depends on how he comes back from injury and if we can count on him. If we can't then probably have to move on. I would probably only re-sign him to a 1 year, maybe 2 for cheap if we he comes back and does well.

As for Kap though, I wold agree will be closer to 90 million than 120. I think he will give us a discount; will depend on how he does this year but still think he wants to win and won't want to take up all our cap like Flacco. Really, I think it's nothing but the agent and the player's egos getting in the way when you think about the difference between 90 and 120 million. If you can't live off 90 million in your life something is wrong with you. It's kind of a well he got this much (even if overpaid) then we should get this much. Like AB said the teams like the Broncos, Ravens, Packers and Saints who are paying their QB 20 or so million a year don't have as much to spend on the rest of their team and they suffer because of it. You look at those teams and they have holes all over the place because they can't sign or re-sign other players. Means you have to draft extra well to fill in those gaps with dirt cheap rookies until their rookie contract is up and then you can't afford to pay them and have to start all over with another rookie. Anyways, Kaepernick and his parents have lived in the area for the last how many decades.. he's been a 49ers (and Packers when he came from Wisc) his whole life, he wants to be here and he wants to win. I just don't see him being greedy. He should give us a nice deal to leave money for the rest of the guys we need to re-sign.

Aldon on the other hand just not sure about. I think he wants to win but not sure if he wants to win like Kap and he might want more than 60 million. I think he has a 2015 option so maybe we start with Iupati who we are working on already... then after the season Kap and Miller/Hunter/Kilgore (if center of the future) who should be easy to take care of. Culliver might be a little harder; he's good but I think he's the type that thinks they are better than they are. I could see Aldon coming later and Crabtree maybe not at all. Possibly a franchise tag in 2015 but I know we don't want to do that because it eats a lot of money.

lol. Not trying to. I agree with the 90 then 120m, maybe 95m is better. But those teams you mentioned are hurting for money and will be for a while. And we cant do that, we are better than that, plus Baalke and Marathe are ninja's lol. They will get them signed, not worried, just hate seeing the money being given out, wish I could get just 1m or 250k. I am stuck making 733 a month, for personal reasons(Depression, OCD) on SSI.
Originally posted by fip24:
First off...great post by AB and follow up comments..It would be great if all posts could create this type of discussion.
My thoughts...
1)I don't see any way that Gore remains for anything more than backup rb money (maybe 1m per) after his deal expires, especially if the Niner could get hunter wrapped up for 2m per as AB suggests. I would be comfortable w/ the Niner having LMJ, Kendall and Lattimore or another draft pick/vet in the back field.

2) I also think Brooks is vulnerable. Just not certain that Trent can afford to toe up that much money in the LB's.

3) I am torn in Kaep's new contract. I don't belive a home town discount exists, biyt I'm not certain market value is that far off from AB's suggestion. Here is my logic.. Kaep is set to make 1.2m (base+workout) in 2014, rip up that deal and giving him a 6 yr 96m deal ( 16m per). If he waits and hits free agency he would need to recoup that 14.8 million he is leaving on the table by not extending in '14. On the standard 5 year deal that top QB's seem to be signing, he would need to get almost 3m more per season (or 19m) from another team...When you factor is the present value of money (money today is worth more than money to be paid in the future) it could be argued that from a pure financial perspective, the better choice is a 6 year 96 million dollar deal signed in 2014 when compared to waiting to sign a 5 yeas 100m deal in 2015.

4) Aldon is the one free agent who scares me. No way he take .01 less than he can get. I'm not sure with his off the field stuff that I would want to make him record breaking offer.
From an agent stand point Kap would hit that 20m a year mark with the exclusive tag. And the 120% the next if they can't work out a long term deal. I can't foresee the 49ers not sticking the exclusive tag on Kap. 27 year old free agent top five(projection) QB's dont hit the open market in this league. You sign them and worry about the cap later. For better or worse.
Let's not for get the past years after Steve retired and Jeff was released we were trash. We all watched them and hoped but we just weren't good. I hate to break it to some people but the 49ers have been a good cap management team for awhile now going back to Nolan. How soon we forget organization go and prosper as their QB go? Before we had Kap(A. Smith fan here) this organization was in dispair! No one had true faith in Smith! Now we finally get a guy that could possibly be the best player on the field every week and now we wanna argue with him because he might want fair market value? I ask these people what plan do they have if he wants to be paid like the player we all hope he is? Cause I got news for everyone if he is that's a 20m plus player!
[ Edited by bALLSOhARD on Sep 11, 2013 at 11:28 PM ]
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I love Frank, but since when does a rb need to be mentored for two years? If Lattimore was a first round talent why waste the cap space on an old rb when there's so many dudes to resign. Rookies come in and have big years every season

I just feel like Gore is gone once his contract is up
Originally posted by bALLSOhARD:
Originally posted by fip24:
First off...great post by AB and follow up comments..It would be great if all posts could create this type of discussion.
My thoughts...
1)I don't see any way that Gore remains for anything more than backup rb money (maybe 1m per) after his deal expires, especially if the Niner could get hunter wrapped up for 2m per as AB suggests. I would be comfortable w/ the Niner having LMJ, Kendall and Lattimore or another draft pick/vet in the back field.

2) I also think Brooks is vulnerable. Just not certain that Trent can afford to toe up that much money in the LB's.

3) I am torn in Kaep's new contract. I don't belive a home town discount exists, biyt I'm not certain market value is that far off from AB's suggestion. Here is my logic.. Kaep is set to make 1.2m (base+workout) in 2014, rip up that deal and giving him a 6 yr 96m deal ( 16m per). If he waits and hits free agency he would need to recoup that 14.8 million he is leaving on the table by not extending in '14. On the standard 5 year deal that top QB's seem to be signing, he would need to get almost 3m more per season (or 19m) from another team...When you factor is the present value of money (money today is worth more than money to be paid in the future) it could be argued that from a pure financial perspective, the better choice is a 6 year 96 million dollar deal signed in 2014 when compared to waiting to sign a 5 yeas 100m deal in 2015.

4) Aldon is the one free agent who scares me. No way he take .01 less than he can get. I'm not sure with his off the field stuff that I would want to make him record breaking offer.
From an agent stand point Kap would hit that 20m a year mark with the exclusive tag. And the 120% the next if they can't work out a long term deal. I can't foresee the 49ers not sticking the exclusive tag on Kap. 27 year old free agent top five(projection) QB's dont hit the open market in this league. You sign them and worry about the cap later.
Let's not for get the past years after Steve retired and Jeff was released we were trash. We all watched them and hoped but we just weren't good. I hate to break it to some people but the 49ers have been a good cap management team for awhile now going back to Nolan. How soon we forget organization go and prosper as their QB go? Before we had Kap(A. Smith fan here) this organization was in dispair! No one had true faith in Smith! Now we finally get a guy that could possibly be the best player on the field every week and now we wanna argue with him because he might want fair market value? I ask these people what plan do they have if he wants to be paid like the player we all hope he is? Cause I got news for everyone if he is that's a 20m plus player!

Sorry but you dont worry about the cap later. If so, you wanna be lie Pittsburgh, who keeps redoing deals, especially Big Bens deal every year, and tack on more money in future years. You always worry about the cap.

Kap may be a 20M QB, but we wont pay him 20M if it will f**k us over in the end.
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
If the structuring of the deal isn't friendly, then the 49ers wont sign the player. They wont risk future cap dollars, look at Goldson and Walker. RJF, previous years, Franklin, all that wanted top dollar. Didn't make sense.

Kap will have played 26 games, 26 games doesn't equal a 120M deal. Flacco has a ring, plus been a starter for over 5 years. Rodgers 1 SB, MVP, all pro, and i league since 2005. He took a short term 65M ish deal to begin with. Kap wouldn't be selfish to screw the team like Flacco did. 20M+ in any year isnt good for business.

Aldon is replaceable IMO. If he wants more than Clay, tag him or let him hit FA. $60M is fair for him. He isnt a DE, so thats why Mario got 90M, Clay gpot like 60M+, you pay based on position value. He plays OLB most of the time. He isnt a DE by any means, and wont get 100M.

The cap is flat, people need to understand that. Teams wont mortgage the future in FA on 1 player anymore.

The Ravens, Steelers, Jets, all signed QBs to big deals, and are cap strained next year, same with New Orleans.

I hate saying this, but I know the business side, better than anyone here. I am not being arrogant. But in the 12+ years of doing this, the 49ers are one team that wont mortgage the future. They will only sign team friendly deals. Anyone to think we should give Kap a Flacco type deal is crazy, loo at the structure, he will have to restructure in 3 years when he has a $21M cap figure or so. We can't afford that with all the players we have to sign.

Key guys like Hunter, MIller, Kilgore will cost a litte, but still adds u. Cully, Iupati, Aldon, Kap and Crabs are the big 5, then Dorsey, Skuta are FAs too after 2014, also Gore(He will redo his deal, and extend 2 more years to mentor Lattimore, he needs more time to develop, Hunter is still young, so he isn't viewed IMO as a guy to mentor Lattimore, who would want Hunter's job. Vets like Gore, Boldin would sign team friendly deals and mentor young players, then retire. Justin did it.

Let me ask you this, would you rather mortgage the cap to sign Kap to a $120.6M deal, and Aldon to 100M deal over getting them to get friendly deals. They can still cash in again in 4 years, like most players do anyway. We also always sign our top players to new deals with years left on contract. See Vernon, Willis, Lee, Bowman, A.Davis.

Mario Manningham would be a great guy to have, as long as he is 100% healthy. I rather keep him, then risk another AJ Jenkins type pick. If I was GM, I wouldn't franchise Crabs. I would offer a 1 deal take it or leave it. Then if no, sign Boldin and Mario, have them, plus Patton, Baldwin, draft a few in rd 3 ish. Like we did with Patton, find a gem later on.

Our needs are simple. CB, SS, WR, OL Depth. Sign Kap, Aldon, then worry about Iupati, And Crabs.

These are the guys who would require new contracts to keep long term.

Hunter
Miller
Kilgore
Aldon
Kap
Cully
Crabs
Iupati
Manningham
Boldin

Forget Brown, Whitner, Goodwin, they wont be back, so no need to worry, we draft a new SS, and CB, and have Kilore take over at C.

And remember, we will eventually sign Reid to an extension after 2015 when allowed. Same with the good picks made, like Vance, Patton, Tank, Dial, Daniels, etc...

Again, not trying to be arrogant. Some are new here, and may or may not know me, I have a website, have been doing this since around 2000 ish. I did it on a old yahoo free site. Then NCH for the past 7-8 years. I started in 2006, took ownership over in 2009, and have been trying to improve the site since.


Do you feel Ozzie Newsome is a good general manager? If yes, then why did he sign Flacco to that deal? Newsome has been doing this for as long as you have, right?
Do you feel Trent Baalke is a good general manager? If yes, than what makes him different from Ozzie Newsome where he doesn't have to sign a franchise quarterback to a 20+ mil deal? Why does Baalke receive a free pass?

What elite quarterback has ever taken any discount of any kind?
What team has ever let their elite franchise quarterback walk?

Kap is on the cover of every magazine, has every statistic, has every tangible physical attribute, has every intangible attribute, and has every football expert drooling over him, yet somehow Baalke pulls an Obi Wan:
Baalke - "You don't need a max contract."
Kap - "I don't need a max contract."
Baalke - "Money is not what you are looking for."
Kap - "Money is not what I am looking for."
Baalke - "You can go back to practice."
Kap - "I can go back to practice."
Baalke - "Your agent needs to leave the building, and move along."
Kap to his agent - "Move along... move along..."
Kap's agent - "What the f**k?!"

The argument is the same for Aldon Smith. What elite pass rusher has ever taken a discount contract?

I pray you are right, but I just don't see it.
[ Edited by BrianGO on Sep 11, 2013 at 11:30 PM ]
Originally posted by BrianGO:
Do you feel Ozzie Newsome is a good general manager? If yes, then why did he sign Flacco to that deal? Newsome has been doing this for as long as you have, right?
Do you feel Trent Baalke is a good general manager? If yes, than what makes him different from Ozzie Newsome where he doesn't have to sign a franchise quarterback to a 20+ mil deal? Why does Baalke receive a free pass?

What elite quarterback has ever taken any discount of any kind?
What team has ever let their elite franchise quarterback walk?

Kap is on the cover of every magazine, has every statistic, has every tangible physical attribute, has every intangible attribute, and has every football expert drooling over him, yet somehow Baalke pulls an Obi Wan:
Baalke - "You don't need a max contract."
Kap - "I don't need a max contract."
Baalke - "Money is not what you are looking for."
Kap - "Money is not what I am looking for."
Baalke - "You can go back to practice."
Kap - "I can go back to practice."
Baalke - "You agent needs to leave the building, and move along."
Kap to his agent - "Move along... move along..."
Kap's agent - "What the f**k?!"

The argument is the same for Aldon Smith. What elite pass rusher has ever taken a discount contract?

I pray you are right, but I just don't see it.

Brady just took less money in 2013 and even less in later years so they could sign FAs.

I know Ozzie is a good GM, but he had no choice. Flacco won the SB, MVP, they were in cap hell, they needed their star QB, and lost nearly every starter on Defense.

It is stupid to pay someone if it will hurt the cap down the line. Flacco's deal is outragious , not worth it. His 3rd or 4th yr he counts $20M, and more throughout the deal. You cant set aside that amount in the new cap era, where it's flat.

Why do people not understand it. I know Kap is 20M QB worthy, but is Baalke dumb enough to structure a deal that will hurt the cap is question now. And please dont attack me. It seems like your new thing to do BrianGO. I will not retaliate for no reason.
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
lol. Not trying to. I agree with the 90 then 120m, maybe 95m is better. But those teams you mentioned are hurting for money and will be for a while. And we cant do that, we are better than that, plus Baalke and Marathe are ninja's lol. They will get them signed, not worried, just hate seeing the money being given out, wish I could get just 1m or 250k. I am stuck making 733 a month, for personal reasons(Depression, OCD) on SSI.

Tell me about it my friend... I could live off 100-150k for the rest of my life. I know with how much money these teams waste it's like how about a few hundred thousand to us die hards who live and die with the team? We were here decades before and will be here decades after these overpaid athletes are gone. So many of these rookie contracts before the rookie scale and then some of the free agent contracts given out just make you want to throw up. I look at the hard working factory workers, farmers, service industry workers, all the hard working people out there making under 20k and it just makes you sick. It's enough to make you not want to watch the NFL anymore but I'm already hooked. Think about how many charities or people could be helped with the amount they throw at one Albert Haynesworth or Mario Williams. Anyways, I think it will be under 100 million, probably 90-95 million even if we make it 5 years instead of 6. Aldon, like I said I think will be a little harder and want more than 60. Not sure he is the give a discount type of guy like Kap. I think we try to finish Iupati by the end of the year. Then we work on the cheaper players/Kap. If Aldon has that 2015 option we have time and he can wait a little bit although the sooner the better since it will likely save us money. I think Crabtree might not get done at all and could be tagged in 2015.
Here is a perfect fact. Peyton Manning signed with Denver for near 20M a yr. We were interested, we couldnt sign him for 20M, or else we would of gutted the roster. We didnt have enough to pay him 20M each year, like Denver is doing. We had like 15M, before the Alex Smith deal.

Unless he would of taken less, doubt it, we would of been screwed, who goes in 2012 for Manning? Willis, Vernon, Staley, Iupati, Gore, etc... ?

Do you really want to screw the cap up when we have it figured it out perfectly, unlike some.
Originally posted by Gore_21:
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
lol. Not trying to. I agree with the 90 then 120m, maybe 95m is better. But those teams you mentioned are hurting for money and will be for a while. And we cant do that, we are better than that, plus Baalke and Marathe are ninja's lol. They will get them signed, not worried, just hate seeing the money being given out, wish I could get just 1m or 250k. I am stuck making 733 a month, for personal reasons(Depression, OCD) on SSI.

Tell me about it my friend... I could live off 100-150k for the rest of my life. I know with how much money these teams waste it's like how about a few hundred thousand to us die hards who live and die with the team? We were here decades before and will be here decades after these overpaid athletes are gone. So many of these rookie contracts before the rookie scale and then some of the free agent contracts given out just make you want to throw up. I look at the hard working factory workers, farmers, service industry workers, all the hard working people out there making under 20k and it just makes you sick. It's enough to make you not want to watch the NFL anymore but I'm already hooked. Think about how many charities or people could be helped with the amount they throw at one Albert Haynesworth or Mario Williams. Anyways, I think it will be under 100 million, probably 90-95 million even if we make it 5 years instead of 6. Aldon, like I said I think will be a little harder and want more than 60. Not sure he is the give a discount type of guy like Kap. I think we try to finish Iupati by the end of the year. Then we work on the cheaper players/Kap. If Aldon has that 2015 option we have time and he can wait a little bit although the sooner the better since it will likely save us money. I think Crabtree might not get done at all and could be tagged in 2015.

Man, I wish I had the money. I am gonna go back for Business degree. Do 4 years, get what I need, and then work somewhere as a manager. I will have the degree, and a background in numbers, so maybe a Bank Manager, or something. Or this pays out, and I get a job with someone doing salary cap work. Not dsaying the 49ers. I wouldn't decline them of course. But maybe a big website, ESPN, or Football Outsiders, something like that. I write on 3 sites, Here, NCH and Niners Nation.

I figure If I can get a 100k-150k job, I would be able to pay off my mothers loan on the house, and buy a new updated home. I am 29, so it's about time I get this going, and when done, do something nice for my mother, who supported me the whole time. My dad on other hand, has a difficult time believing this. And I just bought a laptop(500+ dollars) for him to watch his Vikings with my ST login. And willing to give a kidney, he is on dialysis, and kidney failure. And I get bs from him. No respect at times. Hurts man.