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Lets take a look towards the future, 2014 to be precise (Webzone exclusive)

jeez, AB, you just continue to amaze. Frigging fantastic. I did get a bit of stomach burn when I read the salaries of the first 17 players down to Iupati. Holy catfish. Like others, somehow, somewhere, the league is going to have to figure out a way to do to QBs what the league did to rookies....ie cap them at say a max of 14-15% of total cap. Burning 20% of cap on a Qb has to be changed someday.

On your list, as noted, the Rogers thing stuck out like sore thumb...that has to be redone or go...it is out of whack with an otherwise really well done Cap for entire team.

Finally a comment you made elsewhere about what you might do in the future...business degree, or some such. I honestly believe that if you were enrolled in a master's degree for business, a MBA, that this work would suffice for a bona fide thesis...no joke, my man. This and the reasoning is just incredibly good.

As for the issue of redoing Iupati and Crabs, I agree that Iupati takes precedence, now and well into the future. Besides, if Crabs wants to be the $10 or $12mil/yr man, fine, have at it. We aren't going to do that. Too much more important talent to sign or extend. Again, fantastic piece of work , AB, and you should be proud. I don't see why you aren't working for the 9ers right now. Lord knows you got what it takes, and really understand who to do this with and who to do that with. This is complex x infinity. REally, really well done. thanks, amigo. We all sincerely appreciate your intellect, your reasoning, and better yet, what to do in coming yrs. Also we appreciate your time, work and dedication. You just don't read this on any other board anywhere, ever. I am serious about talking with the 49ers as an heir apparent / co-worker with paarag(sp?) Just so long as you don't forget us..
Watching the Ravens implode tonight after losing most of the roster....reminded me of the turn of the century Niners....and the 03/04 squads too.

Hope we don't end up like that with a depth chart full of superstars we can't pay down the line.

Well I kinda do, because that means we'll do good.....I guess I wouldn't mind if they win 4 or 5 Lombards before it happens
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
Originally posted by fryet:
In 2014 we will have a new stadium that should bring us in more revenue. Do you have any idea on how much more money that will add to our salary cap? Also, when will that money be available to the salary cap? 1 year after the opening of the stadium, i.e. 2015?

Probably around 2015 or 2016 is when the cap should hopefully jump up more than $1-$5M a yr. This flat cap is hurting teams big time, and players also.


It's similar to any other kind of economic "bubble". Contracts are designed to assume that the cap will go up, therefore, contracts escalate accordingly. Of course, if the cap does not go up, then the contracts have to be redone or the players have to be let go.

FYI, I highly doubt that the salary cap will go up by very much in the near future. Contracts for Romo and Flacco are going to look like a joke in a few years.
Originally posted by zillabeast:
Watching the Ravens implode tonight after losing most of the roster....reminded me of the turn of the century Niners....and the 03/04 squads too.

Hope we don't end up like that with a depth chart full of superstars we can't pay down the line.

Well I kinda do, because that means we'll do good.....I guess I wouldn't mind if they win 4 or 5 Lombards before it happens


All the pressure is on Flacco. They made him the highest paid quarterback in the league, even though he is just average. Without Boldin, he can't just randomly throw the ball up in the air anymore, and without Lewis and Reed, their defense will never be the same.
I admire the effort, but reading that makes my head hurt. I am glad it is not my job.
  • fryet
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 2,900
I was under the impression that teams that made more money selling tickets in a stadium had more salary cap money, i.e. each team did not have the same salary cap number. Did that change?
Great stuff as always AB
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
jeez, AB, you just continue to amaze. Frigging fantastic. I did get a bit of stomach burn when I read the salaries of the first 17 players down to Iupati. Holy catfish. Like others, somehow, somewhere, the league is going to have to figure out a way to do to QBs what the league did to rookies....ie cap them at say a max of 14-15% of total cap. Burning 20% of cap on a Qb has to be changed someday.

On your list, as noted, the Rogers thing stuck out like sore thumb...that has to be redone or go...it is out of whack with an otherwise really well done Cap for entire team.

Finally a comment you made elsewhere about what you might do in the future...business degree, or some such. I honestly believe that if you were enrolled in a master's degree for business, a MBA, that this work would suffice for a bona fide thesis...no joke, my man. This and the reasoning is just incredibly good.

As for the issue of redoing Iupati and Crabs, I agree that Iupati takes precedence, now and well into the future. Besides, if Crabs wants to be the $10 or $12mil/yr man, fine, have at it. We aren't going to do that. Too much more important talent to sign or extend. Again, fantastic piece of work , AB, and you should be proud. I don't see why you aren't working for the 9ers right now. Lord knows you got what it takes, and really understand who to do this with and who to do that with. This is complex x infinity. REally, really well done. thanks, amigo. We all sincerely appreciate your intellect, your reasoning, and better yet, what to do in coming yrs. Also we appreciate your time, work and dedication. You just don't read this on any other board anywhere, ever. I am serious about talking with the 49ers as an heir apparent / co-worker with paarag(sp?) Just so long as you don't forget us..

Thanks Doc. I agree Rogers is overpaid. It's not by a small measure, by a huge margin. Iupati is more important, we need to keep Kap protected, and Iupati is one of the best LGs in the NFL.

It's funny that you mention a Business degree, thats exactly what I will be going for in January. Need to pick out a school, I need financial aid and such. But looking forward to getting that degree.

I would love to work with the 49ers. Maybe one day, once I have that degree, I can help out. And I would never forget about the many faithful who have helped put me where I feel I am at, and where I feel I can get to.
Originally posted by fryet:
I was under the impression that teams that made more money selling tickets in a stadium had more salary cap money, i.e. each team did not have the same salary cap number. Did that change?

Teams share revenue. Teams get the set $123M, plus carryover, and any credits, like missed incentives, and other bonuses.

Originally posted by Bluesbro:
I admire the effort, but reading that makes my head hurt. I am glad it is not my job.

Trust me, I get a headache looking at this as well. But I love it. It's a fun hobby right now, which I hope to make into a real job.

Originally posted by Frisco69ers:
Great stuff as always AB

Thanks Frisco, try my best every time.
  • Karma
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 769
This is all indicative of the philosophical change in personnel decisions for this team. The reality of this business is that you simply can not sign superstars at every positions. Most teams realize this when a star's contract comes due and they have to cut half their roster to get it down. If I had to guess, this seems to be the positional objectives:

QB: Despite the rhetoric, this is the most important position and this team knows it. Kaepernick is going to get his money and the team will continue to draft guys like B.J. Daniels to make sure the position is safe.

OL: They obviously want to build around this unit. If I had to guess, Iupati will get paid before this season is done. Boone as well. They will also continue to draft guys here earlier and often. Looney was a guy they brought in to see if Iupati could be expendable. That doesn't look like the case.

RB; Despite the fact that they spent a 2nd on James and a 4th on Lattimore and on Hunter, I don't actually think they value this position that highly. I think those players were good value where they were selected, but I could see this team being comfortable with a 6th rounder as their starter, as long as that OL stays intact. We probably won't see big contracts offered to anyone in this backfield.

TE: The talent that Baalke and Harbaugh inherited as well as Roman's offensive philosophy makes this a very important position group. We will see even more tinkering as McDonald, Harper, Carrier, and even Celek progress. Given Celek's relatively low ceiling, I doubt he lasts the entire season.

WR: Marlon Moore is a metaphor for this team's view of WRs. Work hard, do the little things, and the talent at other positions will make you look better. I think this position group will continue to be shuffled for the sake of the QB and OL contracts. Crabtree might see some money, but considering his first contract holdout, I don't see the two sides agreeing on "fair market value". I would be shocked if we drafted less than three WRs next April. We'll bring them in, have them compete with Chuck Jacobs and Baldwin, pick the best five, and continue that process.

DL: This team puts a premium on this unit because they set the tempo for the entire defense. They know this team needs studs here and continue to add. Tukuafu and Dobbs will be gone by midseason and we will see if Carradine and Dial are an upgrade. If not, Baalke won't hesitate to use another high draft pick to keep this unit from EVER slowing down.

OLB: This position group is analogous to the QB. Big money will be spent to keep Aldon here and Brooks is already locked up. Lemonier has potential. Despite trading Johnson and Haralson, I still see the team bringing in young guys just to make sure they have options. A great defense with no pass rushers looks like a great offense with no QB. i.e. The Jets.

ILB: I think this team stumbled on this pair by accident. Willis was inherited and too damn good to let go. Bowman was a third round pick that just happened to be an All-Pro. If we didn't have these guys I think Baalke and Harbaugh would be contend to play "solid" players, just like the RB position. If the DL is getting push and OLBs are pressuring, you don't need studs, you just need steady. But because we have these two we have to find money to pay them, which comes out of the secondary.

Safety: I think this team would love to be able to pay studs back here, but that just isn't going to happen with all the money on defense going to the front seven. We'll see what we have in Reid, but he probably only gets a year with Whitner. That might not be a bad thing. Whitner is past his prime and struggles in coverage. His successor will probably be picked in the first two rounds next year. Once Reid's contract comes due, we might have the money to keep him, if he is worth it.

CB: The WRs of the defense. As long as the front seven is dominant, we can use sub-par guys here. No matter how good they are this year, Nnamdi, Brown, Cox, and Brock will probably be elsewhere in 2014. Rogers will at least be asked to take a big paycut, so he and Culliver might be the only guys left. Again, don't be surprised to see at least three rookie CBs drafted.
Good points Karma.

WR and CB seem to be the less loaded spots right now. Only really Patton and Culliver seem in long term plans.

OLB I like right now, Brooks is more than capable of being a pass rusher, he just needs to be more consistent. The talk of a trade isn't likely, he is owed guaranteed prorations, which would hinder a trade. Aldon is all pro. Lemonier is a younger, and faster Haralson. Skuta is more than capable of being a good quality backup, and main ST Ace.

ILB looks stacked, Willis and Bowman are signed thru 2016, 2018 for Bowman. Plus Wilhoite will be extended at some point, as he has starter capabilities. And Moody looks good. Unsure of what we have in Stupar.
Originally posted by AB83Rules:
http://www.49erswebzone.com/commentary/1166-lets-take-look-towards-future-2014-precise/

I wanted to take a look toward the future, to be more precise, 2014 offseason, and what we have to deal with. I will provide numbers for each player under contract, and what potential cuts could mean cap wise.

For the moment, after the 53 man cuts, and new roster moves, the 49ers have 49 players signed for 2014, at $115,144,923 to be exact, with a dead money hit of just $1,898,431. Now that may seem like not "Only", but compared to some teams, who carry around in the double digit money in dead money, namely $50 million for Oakland in 2013. A little chunk of under $2 million is nothing. What lies in the problem is the current flat cap, and salaries. Which are now below.

CB Carlos Rogers, $8,094,531
RT Anthony Davis , $7,532,266
OLB Ahmad Brooks, $7.5 million
TE Vernon Davis , $7,367,916
ILB NaVorro Bowman, $7.05 million
ILB Patrick Willis, $6,909,875
DE Justin Smith, $6,736,666
RB Frank Gore, $6.45 million
DE Ray McDonald, $5,346,714
WR Michael Crabtree, $4,770,443
OLB Aldon Smith, $4,576,727
NT/DE Glenn Dorsey, $3,792,500
LT Joe Staley, $3.4 million
LG Mike Iupati, $3,255,863
P Andy Lee, $2.4 million
FS Eric Reid, $1,927,444
FS/SS Craig Dahl, $1,883,333
RG Alex Boone, $1.74 million
OLB/ILB Dan Skuta, $1.65 million
QB Colin Kaepernick, $1,630,457
FS/SS C.J. Spillman, $1,558,333
NT Ian Williams, $1,408,333
WR Jon Baldwin, $1,377,765
RG/RT Adam Snyder, $1.3 million
DE Tank Carradine, $1,124,473
RB LaMichael James, $904,968
SS/FS Raymond Ventrone, $855,000
TE Vance McDonald, $817,995
CB Chris Culliver, $794,719
RB Kendall Hunter, $754,805
C Daniel Kilgore, $685,075
LG/C Joe Looney, $676,250
FB Bruce Miller, $660,614
OLB Corey Lemonier, $630,880
WR Quinton Patton, $592,875
TE Garrett Celek, $572,000
RB Marcus Lattimore, $570,146
DE Quinton Dial, $540,413
ILB Darius Fleming, $536,000
ILB Nick Moody, $521,918
QB B.J. Daniels, $506,628
OT Luke Marquardt, $496,666
LS Kevin McDermott, $496,666
DE Tony Jerod-Eddie, $495,000
ILB Nate Stupar, $495,000
TE Chris Harper, $495,000
FB Alex Debniak, $421,666
DE Lawrence Okoye, $421,000
WR Brandon Carswell, $420,000

Now we have roughly around $6.956 million in cap room for 2014 right now, that is with a $124 million cap, which is only $1 million raise. Hopefully it goes higher, maybe another $5 million, which would give us over $10 million to work with.

We still will need to some cap working, just to get rookies signed. We saw the exodus of Brian Jennings, and Parys Haralson, due to salary cap numbers. We are tight right now against the cap, about $2.5 million under, before factoring in Lamar Divens' settlement, which I have no numbers for that yet.

Anyway, back on track. Of the 49 players signed, the following are likely pay cut candidates.

We start with Carlos Rogers, he has a $6.25 million base salary, plus $350,000 in roster and workout bonuses. If we can get Carlos to lower his base down, to say $1.25 million, and eliminate his roster and workout bonuses, with the newly created bonus of, $5 million, prorated over 4 years, at $1.25 million. He would be signed thru 2016, but we treat 2016 as a dummy year, $1 million base, and no other bonuses, basically voids. We save, with his $350,000 workout and roster bonus, plus $3.75 million from his base reduction, we just created $4.1 million in cap room.

Next guy who may be asked for a reduction is Ahmad Brooks. He is due a $5.15 million base salary, but it may reduce on itself, if he doesn't reach 12 sacks or more, and he doesn't get a certain amount of playing time percentage. So we could see a $1 million savings just like that, down to $4.15 million, at that point, I wouldn't ask him to take a pay cut, he is underrated, and has earned the money. Plus he fits our plans perfectly to me.

Next guy is Vernon Davis. This is different. He has a $4.7 million base salary, but I say extend him, lower his base down to what will be the veteran minimum of $855,000. Extend his years thru 2018, which would mean an extra 3 years on top of his 2 remaining years, after 2013. We take the base, and reduce to the mentioned $855,000. And his new signing bonus becomes $3.815 million. We can throw him a future roster bonus guarantee on April of whatever year, or the new league year in March. But the $3.815 million would prorate over 5 years total, at a rate of $763,000. Now I say we actually give him an option bonus in 2015, worth around $4 million, prorated over 4 years, at $1 million. Essentially, he gets a $3.815 million signing bonus right away, and a $4 million option bonus in beginning of the 2015 league year. We would save around $3.082 million.

If those 3 deals are accomplished, we would raise our cap room by about $8.182 million. Now comes the fun part, extending Aldon Smith. Because we are now allowed to extend him, and he has a base salary of $2,336,454, we could extend, and have him lower his base, so it helps in the form of a signing bonus. We could also add in some cap room from the restructures to help with the signing bonus. I image Aldon will be looking for a deal in the Clay Matthews range, which is a apy(Average Per Year) of around $13.2 million. Now I don't see the 49ers paying Smith $13 million a year, if he is willing to take around $10 million a year average, plus a load of incentives, based on sacks, tackles, playing time, etc... I would say it would be a new 6-year deal, going thru the 2019 season, for $60 million, plus say $3 million in available incentives, and base salary escalators.

We basically take his base salary, take it down to around $1 million. Give him a $15 million signing bonus, over 5 years, at $3 million a year. A 2014 cap number of $4 million, and give him a $250,000 roster bonus, and $100,000 workout bonus, each year. His new deal would have a 2014 number of $4.35 million, plus his already prorated bonus from his rookie contract, which is $2,240,273. None of which can be restructured, so it isn't as we are losing cap room.

Lastly, Kaepernick. I see a 5-year deal, worth around $75 million, which is a apy of $15 million, which I feel is fair value, for a guy who would only have 1 and a half years work put in, or about 26 starts. We simply give Kap a new base of $645,000, which is league minimum, plus give him a $15 million signing bonus now, then a $5 million option bonus in 2015, prorated over 4 seasons, at $1.25 million year. The signing bonus would prorate at $3 million a year, and while it looks like he has only a $15 million guarantee, we can also guarantee his 1st 3 seasons base salaries on the new deal. Plus the $5 million option bonus would be guaranteed basically. I would do this, $645,000 in 2014, $1 million in 2015, and $5 million in 2016. Those being base salaries. That gives him an extra $6.645 million in guarantees right there, which is a total of $26.645 million guaranteed.

I don't know how likely we can get a deal done for Michael Crabtree or Mike Iupati. They may be the more difficult ones. If I was a betting man, Iupati would be my guy to sign. Keep the O-line intact. Of course, we have a few Free Agents to worry about.

Tarell Brown is likely gone, as he would bolt for the money elsewhere. But we need to keep Anquan Boldin, Mario Manningham, and Phil Dawson as Unrestricted Free Agents. Plus tender Perrish Cox, Michael Wilhoite as an RFA, and EFA respectively. Those costs should be around $1.5 million for Cox, this is of course if he proves to be valuable as a Punt Returner, and a backup Corner. And for Wilhoite, it would be $570,000.

Deals for Boldin, Manningham, and Dawson would be like this, just for 2014, as I hate going more deeper into the future, and looking more at the cap.

Boldin signs for a 2-year deal, and gets a cap figure of $3.5 million in 2014, Mannigham gets a 3-year deal, and a 2015 cap number of $2.5 million. Dawson another 1 or 2 year deal. Around $3 million a year.

All totaled, we used $9 million on the key 3 UFAs, another $2.070 million on Cox, and Wilhoite. Plus saved some on the previous deals. And we could be set for the 2014 season, and draft day.

I can see Mike Iupati, as he has a $1,600,500 base salary, lowered to $645,000, and we can get an extension. But who is to say wait on the Boldin, and Vernon Davis deals. Get them done now, and then get Iupati locked up long term.

Then in 2015 worry about Crabtree, Culliver, and the other 2011 picks, like, Kilgore, Hunter, and Miller.

The only last player I would want back is Nnamdi Asomougha, and around $2 million for 2014. His play will determine his salary, and years signed, if he says in San Fran.

Awesome work.

I have some comments / disagreements on a few things:
1) Kap. If we win the SuperBowl, and Kap plays well, he's going to command a larger contract IMO... 18-20mil.
2) Aldon. I don't think we can keep Aldon for $10m... i think we will need to pay him more unless his legal troubles get worse... in which case we may not want to keep him. I think he's in Clay Mathews territory as you stated, 13mil. Not sure what Kap and Aldon in those kinds of salary figures does to our capspace but i gotta think we're not going to have a ton of room without some major salary cuts.
3) Boldin and Manningham, i really don't think we keep both unless Manningham is veteran minimum or close to it and Boldin comes super cheap. Otherwise, i think we're only going to keep 1 of the two. I know our future WR looks weak right now, but don't think we have money to keep Boldin around (with a healthy Crabtree) and Patton hopefully coming up strong. Boldin will be an expensive luxury.

Agree with everything else. I love the Vernon extension.

We need to draft secondary and WR next year to replace Boldin and/or Manningham, Williams, Brown, Whitner and Nnamdi.
Also need to Daniels to develop into reliable #2 so we don't have to sign an expensive vet (vet making anything more than the minimum) to backup Kap... and can draft another cheap young guy in the later rounds to be the 3rd QB.

AB,
You did not mention it, but do you see Gore in danger of getting cut / traded / asked for pay cut? If no injuries, we have Hunter, James, and hopefully a recovered Lattimore in the depth chart with Gore. I can see a situation where a fully recovered Lattimore and maybe even Hunter can earn equal playing time with Gore. At 6 million, Gore would be an expensive luxury in a 3-back backfield, not to mention LaMichael James (who will hopefully progress and earn time also). That's a crowded backfield and in those situations, its usually not good for the guy making $6M especially when we're trying to keep our star LG and WR around.
We will have some tough decisions to make, but I believe that the priority is

1. Making sure we retain our elite players- Aldon/Kaep. You can't really make a guarantee, but it's as close to a 0% chance as you will get that these two will go.

2. Making sure our O-Line stays together by extending Iupati. I think we have Kilgore waiting in the wings to take over at center and we will use the draft, our practice squad, and find low priced veterans in free agency to maintain the offensive line's depth.

Based off of what the cap may be, I agree with the posters that we may be rebuilding the WR and CB corps starting next year. I really like Crabtree but if Quinton Patton comes along nicely and Boldin does well this year, I say let him play out his current deal and let the chips fall where they may. I'd also resign Boldin to a 2 year deal. It won't be nearly as much as it would cost to sign Crabtree and he can keep the seat warm until someone else emerges to take over as the main target at wideout. Don't forget that we also have Jon Baldwin waiting in the wings. He's number 5 on the depth chart, but this staff is great at developing players, so if he's willing to put in the work, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Jon Baldwin and Quinton Patton as our starting tandem in 2015. And keep in mind, a receiver does not need to put up 1200+ in order to have a good season in this system. We just need two receivers that can give us 800 + yards. Because we don't need a guy to be Andre/Calvin Johnson-like, there is no need to pay premium dollars at that position.

I agree that we may lose most of our corners by 2015. The only priority IMO is Chris Culliver. Tarrell Brown is probably gone, which is ok by me because he can potentially net us a comp pick in the 4th or 5th round. I forgot to mention that Michael Crabtree will probably do the same. Carlos Rogers is in an unfortunate situation. He had the best season of his career and was paid according to that it seems. As a result, he is going to be targeted because of his high cap figure as well as age. I could see the team trading him IF some of our other corners develop and can be trusted to start. Either that or lower his cap figure. I can't blame them because from what I understand, I believe the 49ers did try to go after younger corners first, then when they wouldn't bite, we resigned Rogers. This was a must as we made our Super Bowl run last year. If we see the Eric Wright from Cleveland and not from Tampa Bay, I'd be comfortable with Wright and Culliver as our starters in 2015. I don't know how Nnamdi Asomugha fits into the plans. He could leave for more money if he has a good season, but maybe we will get lucky and he wants to stay on. If he doesn't, no worries, we'll just net another compensatory pick lol. Either way, I'd have Wright/Culliver as our starters. It's a shame we couldn't Marcus Cooper, because both he along with Darryl Morris could've possibly stepped in and helped to round out that group.

As stacked as our team is, 2014 will be a great year for newcomers and rookies because there will be many holes to fill on this roster. I'm expecting a lot of turnover, but I think we are much better prepared to handle the turnover and should suffer no major setbacks.
AB you should be hired by the organization