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Lets take a look towards the future, 2014 to be precise (Webzone exclusive)

http://www.49erswebzone.com/commentary/1166-lets-take-look-towards-future-2014-precise/

I wanted to take a look toward the future, to be more precise, 2014 offseason, and what we have to deal with. I will provide numbers for each player under contract, and what potential cuts could mean cap wise.

For the moment, after the 53 man cuts, and new roster moves, the 49ers have 49 players signed for 2014, at $115,144,923 to be exact, with a dead money hit of just $1,898,431. Now that may seem like not "Only", but compared to some teams, who carry around in the double digit money in dead money, namely $50 million for Oakland in 2013. A little chunk of under $2 million is nothing. What lies in the problem is the current flat cap, and salaries. Which are now below.

CB Carlos Rogers, $8,094,531
RT Anthony Davis , $7,532,266
OLB Ahmad Brooks, $7.5 million
TE Vernon Davis , $7,367,916
ILB NaVorro Bowman, $7.05 million
ILB Patrick Willis, $6,909,875
DE Justin Smith, $6,736,666
RB Frank Gore, $6.45 million
DE Ray McDonald, $5,346,714
WR Michael Crabtree, $4,770,443
OLB Aldon Smith, $4,576,727
NT/DE Glenn Dorsey, $3,792,500
LT Joe Staley, $3.4 million
LG Mike Iupati, $3,255,863
P Andy Lee, $2.4 million
FS Eric Reid, $1,927,444
FS/SS Craig Dahl, $1,883,333
RG Alex Boone, $1.74 million
OLB/ILB Dan Skuta, $1.65 million
QB Colin Kaepernick, $1,630,457
FS/SS C.J. Spillman, $1,558,333
NT Ian Williams, $1,408,333
WR Jon Baldwin, $1,377,765
RG/RT Adam Snyder, $1.3 million
DE Tank Carradine, $1,124,473
RB LaMichael James, $904,968
SS/FS Raymond Ventrone, $855,000
TE Vance McDonald, $817,995
CB Chris Culliver, $794,719
RB Kendall Hunter, $754,805
C Daniel Kilgore, $685,075
LG/C Joe Looney, $676,250
FB Bruce Miller, $660,614
OLB Corey Lemonier, $630,880
WR Quinton Patton, $592,875
TE Garrett Celek, $572,000
RB Marcus Lattimore, $570,146
DE Quinton Dial, $540,413
ILB Darius Fleming, $536,000
ILB Nick Moody, $521,918
QB B.J. Daniels, $506,628
OT Luke Marquardt, $496,666
LS Kevin McDermott, $496,666
DE Tony Jerod-Eddie, $495,000
ILB Nate Stupar, $495,000
TE Chris Harper, $495,000
FB Alex Debniak, $421,666
DE Lawrence Okoye, $421,000
WR Brandon Carswell, $420,000

Now we have roughly around $6.956 million in cap room for 2014 right now, that is with a $124 million cap, which is only $1 million raise. Hopefully it goes higher, maybe another $5 million, which would give us over $10 million to work with.

We still will need to some cap working, just to get rookies signed. We saw the exodus of Brian Jennings, and Parys Haralson, due to salary cap numbers. We are tight right now against the cap, about $2.5 million under, before factoring in Lamar Divens' settlement, which I have no numbers for that yet.

Anyway, back on track. Of the 49 players signed, the following are likely pay cut candidates.

We start with Carlos Rogers, he has a $6.25 million base salary, plus $350,000 in roster and workout bonuses. If we can get Carlos to lower his base down, to say $1.25 million, and eliminate his roster and workout bonuses, with the newly created bonus of, $5 million, prorated over 4 years, at $1.25 million. He would be signed thru 2016, but we treat 2016 as a dummy year, $1 million base, and no other bonuses, basically voids. We save, with his $350,000 workout and roster bonus, plus $3.75 million from his base reduction, we just created $4.1 million in cap room.

Next guy who may be asked for a reduction is Ahmad Brooks. He is due a $5.15 million base salary, but it may reduce on itself, if he doesn't reach 12 sacks or more, and he doesn't get a certain amount of playing time percentage. So we could see a $1 million savings just like that, down to $4.15 million, at that point, I wouldn't ask him to take a pay cut, he is underrated, and has earned the money. Plus he fits our plans perfectly to me.

Next guy is Vernon Davis. This is different. He has a $4.7 million base salary, but I say extend him, lower his base down to what will be the veteran minimum of $855,000. Extend his years thru 2018, which would mean an extra 3 years on top of his 2 remaining years, after 2013. We take the base, and reduce to the mentioned $855,000. And his new signing bonus becomes $3.815 million. We can throw him a future roster bonus guarantee on April of whatever year, or the new league year in March. But the $3.815 million would prorate over 5 years total, at a rate of $763,000. Now I say we actually give him an option bonus in 2015, worth around $4 million, prorated over 4 years, at $1 million. Essentially, he gets a $3.815 million signing bonus right away, and a $4 million option bonus in beginning of the 2015 league year. We would save around $3.082 million.

If those 3 deals are accomplished, we would raise our cap room by about $8.182 million. Now comes the fun part, extending Aldon Smith. Because we are now allowed to extend him, and he has a base salary of $2,336,454, we could extend, and have him lower his base, so it helps in the form of a signing bonus. We could also add in some cap room from the restructures to help with the signing bonus. I image Aldon will be looking for a deal in the Clay Matthews range, which is a apy(Average Per Year) of around $13.2 million. Now I don't see the 49ers paying Smith $13 million a year, if he is willing to take around $10 million a year average, plus a load of incentives, based on sacks, tackles, playing time, etc... I would say it would be a new 6-year deal, going thru the 2019 season, for $60 million, plus say $3 million in available incentives, and base salary escalators.

We basically take his base salary, take it down to around $1 million. Give him a $15 million signing bonus, over 5 years, at $3 million a year. A 2014 cap number of $4 million, and give him a $250,000 roster bonus, and $100,000 workout bonus, each year. His new deal would have a 2014 number of $4.35 million, plus his already prorated bonus from his rookie contract, which is $2,240,273. None of which can be restructured, so it isn't as we are losing cap room.

Lastly, Kaepernick. I see a 5-year deal, worth around $75 million, which is a apy of $15 million, which I feel is fair value, for a guy who would only have 1 and a half years work put in, or about 26 starts. We simply give Kap a new base of $645,000, which is league minimum, plus give him a $15 million signing bonus now, then a $5 million option bonus in 2015, prorated over 4 seasons, at $1.25 million year. The signing bonus would prorate at $3 million a year, and while it looks like he has only a $15 million guarantee, we can also guarantee his 1st 3 seasons base salaries on the new deal. Plus the $5 million option bonus would be guaranteed basically. I would do this, $645,000 in 2014, $1 million in 2015, and $5 million in 2016. Those being base salaries. That gives him an extra $6.645 million in guarantees right there, which is a total of $26.645 million guaranteed.

I don't know how likely we can get a deal done for Michael Crabtree or Mike Iupati. They may be the more difficult ones. If I was a betting man, Iupati would be my guy to sign. Keep the O-line intact. Of course, we have a few Free Agents to worry about.

Tarell Brown is likely gone, as he would bolt for the money elsewhere. But we need to keep Anquan Boldin, Mario Manningham, and Phil Dawson as Unrestricted Free Agents. Plus tender Perrish Cox, Michael Wilhoite as an RFA, and EFA respectively. Those costs should be around $1.5 million for Cox, this is of course if he proves to be valuable as a Punt Returner, and a backup Corner. And for Wilhoite, it would be $570,000.

Deals for Boldin, Manningham, and Dawson would be like this, just for 2014, as I hate going more deeper into the future, and looking more at the cap.

Boldin signs for a 2-year deal, and gets a cap figure of $3.5 million in 2014, Mannigham gets a 3-year deal, and a 2015 cap number of $2.5 million. Dawson another 1 or 2 year deal. Around $3 million a year.

All totaled, we used $9 million on the key 3 UFAs, another $2.070 million on Cox, and Wilhoite. Plus saved some on the previous deals. And we could be set for the 2014 season, and draft day.

I can see Mike Iupati, as he has a $1,600,500 base salary, lowered to $645,000, and we can get an extension. But who is to say wait on the Boldin, and Vernon Davis deals. Get them done now, and then get Iupati locked up long term.

Then in 2015 worry about Crabtree, Culliver, and the other 2011 picks, like, Kilgore, Hunter, and Miller.

The only last player I would want back is Nnamdi Asomougha, and around $2 million for 2014. His play will determine his salary, and years signed, if he says in San Fran.
[ Edited by AB83Rules on Sep 4, 2013 at 11:21 PM ]
Excellent. Good work, as usual.
Aldon Smith may not be a problem if he goes away thanks to the criminal charges the Santa Clara DA is looking at filing.
  • Buchy
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 754
Really interesting to read AB83, I don't think we are going to re-sign Mario Manningham though as I understand he is a FA after this year. It might be pie in the sky but I think we'll keep Boldin as a mentor for the younger guys though, but I did have a question - would we be able to cut MM this year with an injury payment and would this have any effect on cap space this year or allow us to do anything for restructures?

Also, who do you think are the likely candidates for trades to clear up cap space? I think it's obvious Baalke is building through the draft and I think we might look to trade players to clear up cap space.

I also can't believe Carlos Rogers is the highest ppaid player on the team!
Originally posted by zillabeast:
Aldon Smith may not be a problem if he goes away thanks to the criminal charges the Santa Clara DA is looking at filing.

Where did you read this? Ive only heard of the lawsuit from Ronndale Esporlas
  • Jcool
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 12,793
Originally posted by NinerFan408:
Originally posted by zillabeast:
Aldon Smith may not be a problem if he goes away thanks to the criminal charges the Santa Clara DA is looking at filing.

Where did you read this? Ive only heard of the lawsuit from Ronndale Esporlas

Niners Nation ‏@NinersNation
Per @mercnews, Aldon Smith could face illegal weapons possession charge(s) from last year's party http://sbn.to/1cIkfrq ;
wow man excellent work AB!!!!!!!!
  • Karma
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 753
AB, this is fantastic, as always. I have been thinking about 2014 for the last few weeks and your insights are interesting. Here are a few thoughts:

Carlos Rogers number MUST come down. He will either be restructured or cut. Because of that, he might be the only restructured deal. Constantly asking players to take a pay cut might end up negatively affecting the team down the road. No one will want to sign a contract if they know the terms will be renegotiated in a year.

Kaepernick, Aldon Smith, and Iupati are essential contracts. I don't hold out much hope of resigning anyone else. Yes, it would suck to lose Boldin, Crabtree, and Manningham in the same year, but I would rather draft three decent-to-mediocre WRs than take my chances with a weakened OL or no pass rush.

The two units that are going to be dramatically different in the next two years will be the wide receivers and the cornerbacks. Between Boldin, Crabtree and Manningham, the best we can hope for is that one of them is around for more than a year. Crabtree is the only one that makes sense, but we may not have the money. If I am not mistaken, Patton is the only WR signed past next year. Other than Crabtree, this doesn't actually worry me. I like the guys we have, but new blood is always fun.An elite QB and a dominant OL can make good receivers great.

In the secondary Brown, Whitner, Nnamdi, Brock, and perhaps Rogers will most likely be gone. Culliver and Reid will be the guys to build this unit around. That's scary for a dominant defense, but the front seven will make the transition easier.
I am in awe once again at your ability to break this down. It makes my brain hurt to read it, let alone try to figure it out.

At the end of the day if you tell me we can keep Aldon and Kap and it doesn't mean huge losses elsewhere I am good. I love Crabtree but I don't see him taking any less than the highest amount some bottom feeder looking for a marquee name will be willing to pay.
Originally posted by Karma:
AB, this is fantastic, as always. I have been thinking about 2014 for the last few weeks and your insights are interesting. Here are a few thoughts:

Carlos Rogers number MUST come down. He will either be restructured or cut. Because of that, he might be the only restructured deal. Constantly asking players to take a pay cut might end up negatively affecting the team down the road. No one will want to sign a contract if they know the terms will be renegotiated in a year.

Kaepernick, Aldon Smith, and Iupati are essential contracts. I don't hold out much hope of resigning anyone else. Yes, it would suck to lose Boldin, Crabtree, and Manningham in the same year, but I would rather draft three decent-to-mediocre WRs than take my chances with a weakened OL or no pass rush.

The two units that are going to be dramatically different in the next two years will be the wide receivers and the cornerbacks. Between Boldin, Crabtree and Manningham, the best we can hope for is that one of them is around for more than a year. Crabtree is the only one that makes sense, but we may not have the money. If I am not mistaken, Patton is the only WR signed past next year. Other than Crabtree, this doesn't actually worry me. I like the guys we have, but new blood is always fun.An elite QB and a dominant OL can make good receivers great.

In the secondary Brown, Whitner, Nnamdi, Brock, and perhaps Rogers will most likely be gone. Culliver and Reid will be the guys to build this unit around. That's scary for a dominant defense, but the front seven will make the transition easier.


I do totally agree Kaepernick is going to be the priority. The 49ers are set up to back up any other spot if / when the time comes, but Kap is so unique and so good at what he does, that would be impossible to replace in the short term.

My greatest fear is that if Aldon repeats his 15 or 20 sack performance - and stays out of legal trouble - that he's going to command a way bigger deal than $63 million. Maybe even something along the lines of biggest defensive contract ever. To be 3 years in and at 50+ sacks....teams would pay $100 million for that.
Always a great read, AB. It's going to be rough seeing either Iupati or Crabtree go. I'm not looking forward to seeing them go, but it'll be interesting to see how each plays into the future of the 49ers offense.
Aw no one ever reads pinned posts lol, move it back down
Originally posted by zillabeast:
Aw no one ever reads pinned posts lol, move it back down

Lol this

Nice work tho AB, however I wonder how this will change it Kaep becomes Superbowl MVP and Aldon wins DPOY. We might have to cut everyone!
Originally posted by Buchy:
Really interesting to read AB83, I don't think we are going to re-sign Mario Manningham though as I understand he is a FA after this year. It might be pie in the sky but I think we'll keep Boldin as a mentor for the younger guys though, but I did have a question - would we be able to cut MM this year with an injury payment and would this have any effect on cap space this year or allow us to do anything for restructures?

Also, who do you think are the likely candidates for trades to clear up cap space? I think it's obvious Baalke is building through the draft and I think we might look to trade players to clear up cap space.

I also can't believe Carlos Rogers is the highest ppaid player on the team!

I know man, Rogers reason for being highest cap figure in 2014 is that restructure from 2012 to get Bowman extended. It was worth it, but he has played down to level of a Brock. He needs to step it up.
Originally posted by English:
Excellent. Good work, as usual.

Thanks bud, and thanks for the Pin.