Originally posted by jvangeystel:
I believe that as a fan or any person that is trying to determine what the future might hold a person must use his/her knowledge of the past. Of course it is possible that we get beaten by a team like the Jaguars or Titans. Possible but based on the skill level of the 49ers vs. the skill level of teams such as: Cardinal, Rams, Jaguars, Titans, and Buccaneers, the 49ers should win all if not most of these games. I believe the Colts, Panthers, and Redskins are better than the previously mentioned teams but, still below the 49ers in overall talent and should be mostly wins. The Seahawks, Packers, Saints, Texans, and Falcons games are all tough. Me being an optimist I would go 4-2 in these six games rather than 3-3 or worse. Give us another loss from a divisional opponent and one more from an opponent that the 49ers would be the clear favorite. That puts us at 12-4. 11-5 if you say we should go 3-3 against the tough opponents. If the 49ers lose to any team in the first to brackets it will be considered a letdown. If the 49ers lose more than 5 games this season then they are not the team we thought they were and it will be a disappointing season unless we have success in the playoffs.
To say that I am over confident about these games is clearly subjective. I would also like to point out that I will have not only the majority of the media but, Vegas as well behind me. The 49ers will be picked to win most of these games this season. Of course we will have to wait and see but, I think history points more towards my opinion than yours. :)
OK, first of all, I don't agree with the way you have divided up the teams. So, even if my prediction is 11-5, I don't look at it as going 3-3 on tough teams. I look at the schedule and my premise is I view most of the teams as good teams (with my definition of "good" being somewhat different to yours), obviously with some being better and some less good if you will, may be with the exception of Jaguars, Titans and to a lesser degree Cards.
Starting with the division games, I don't view the Rams as a weak team as the way you have categorized them. They went 4-1-1 last season in division beating both us and the Seahawks once plus they have added more weapons in Austin and Bailey. Needless to say, I don't need to talk about the Seahawks. I can easily see us going 4-2 in division or even 3-3 if we don't play well enough. So, that leave us with a quota of 3 more losses with the rest of the teams.
3 losses outside of division to me is a very reasonable estimation if you consider who the stronger teams are within the remaining 10. There are Packers, Colts, Texans, Saints, Redskins, and Falcons. It is quite possible we could go 4-2 amongst this group or at worst 3-3.
Then what's left are what I call the middle of the road teams, the Panthers and the Bucs. The one I am looking at here are the Bucs. This is an up and down team, their D have improved and pending on how Freeman plays, they are capable of springing some surprises. Last season, they beat the Falcons and the Saints once and they almost beat the Giants and Redskins. So, I won't totally write them off.
So, if you look at the way I have divided up my groups, I have left 1 game as my margin of error whichever that group may be. That is how I arrived at my 11-5 to 10-6 prediction. Of course it is always going to be subjective and frankly what Vegas says don't concern me. Last season, I went with a 12-4 prediction and I was actually tempted to say 11-5, but I took the optimist route and ended up 1/2 game short. This season, I just can't see how we can go 12-4, is just asking too much (although not entirely impossible, but unlikely in my view). Just the make-up and dynamics of the NFC West alone has changed so much. It wasn't all that long ago when we never had to worry about the Seahawks and the Rams say back in 2011. In just one season, we already saw how far the Seahawks and the Rams had come and this will only continue.
As to your point about the media, you need to take that with a grain of salt. Aren't most saying the Seahawks will win NFC West with some guy on nfl.com saying they will clinch the Super Bowl ? How do you feel about that ? LOL.