The "We can't think of a good name for the Jon Baldwin thread" thread

Originally posted by buck:
I am not sure that "bust" is relative to a player's draft spot. I do not believe that it is correct to label a 6th or 7th round pick a bust.

At some point , at least in my estimation, the term bust seems to lose any real meaning

for some reason I am thinking of the naked gun,,, "my thats an impressive bust"!.. thank you,, I just had it stuffed

Originally posted by cciowa:

Originally posted by buck:
I am not sure that "bust" is relative to a player's draft spot. I do not believe that it is correct to label a 6th or 7th round pick a bust.

At some point , at least in my estimation, the term bust seems to lose any real meaning

for some reason I am thinking of the naked gun,,, "my thats an impressive bust"!.. thank you,, I just had it stuffed

its actually " Nice Beaver"

Originally posted by 49AllTheTime:

Originally posted by cciowa:

Originally posted by buck:
I am not sure that "bust" is relative to a player's draft spot. I do not believe that it is correct to label a 6th or 7th round pick a bust.

At some point , at least in my estimation, the term bust seems to lose any real meaning

for some reason I am thinking of the naked gun,,, "my thats an impressive bust"!.. thank you,, I just had it stuffed

its actually " Nice Beaver"

damn,, thank you,, well I swear to god that was a line in that movie or some movie, about an impressive bust , ahh never mind, I am rambling now

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by buck:
One more time.

PFF has him for 46 targets, 21 catchable, 20 receptions, and one drop in 2012 regular season.
But, his catch rate is pretty low--43.5%. He caught 20 of the 46 balls thrown to him.

For some comparison. Bowe had a catch rate of 55.1%.
McCluster had a catch rate of 74.3%.

Bowe had 107 targets, 65 catchable, 59 receptions, and 6 drops.
McCluster had 70 targets, 59 catchable, 52 receptions, and 7 drops

The numbers below are all based on targets of 20 yards or more.

Baldwin had 17 targets, 3 catchable, 3 receptions, 0 drops.
Bowe had 22.targets, 6 catchable, 5 receptions, 1 drop.

Baldwin had 3 receptions for 86 yards,
Bowe had 5.receptions for 157 yards.

Read more at http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/174215-49ers-acquire-jon-baldwin-jenkins/page78/#ucx8foQTuq9v9lsQ.99

Do you not see the logical disconnect here?


PFF has him for 46 targets, 21 catchable, 20 receptions, and one drop in 2012 regular season.


But, his catch rate is pretty low--43.5%. He caught 20 of the 46 balls thrown to him.


So he had 46 targets but only 21 were deemed catchable...who gives a damn what his catch rate was?

Receivers that are considered good almost always have much higher catch rates than Baldwin.

But, I am not an expert so I really do not know what value should be given to the catch rates.

Originally posted by buck:
Receivers that are considered good almost always have much higher catch rates than Baldwin.

But, I am not an expert so I really do not know what value should be given to the catch rates.

Go look at what Larry Fitzgerald's numbers looked like last season and tell me that the QB doesn't have anything to do with it. Behind Arizona, KC had the 2nd worst QB situation in the NFL. Not to say that Baldwin will turn out to be anything more than the bust he appears to be, but its hard to judge with the garbage the Chiefs were putting behind center.

Plummer was excellent in San Diego ... when he went to the 49ers a lot of SD fans were pissed because they felt he was shipped out because he was outplaying Seau but they didn't want to pay him like Seau. Plummer was very very smart, but not a great physical specimen.

Boldin has been the flanker for the most part, so Baldwin is most likely to get most of his time at split.

Bowe caught a lot more balls than Baldwin, at least in part because he was the focus of the offense, he was targeted more and shorter, and he's better than Baldwin. The question is how much better. Right now we don't know.

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by buck:
One more time.

PFF has him for 46 targets, 21 catchable, 20 receptions, and one drop in 2012 regular season.
But, his catch rate is pretty low--43.5%. He caught 20 of the 46 balls thrown to him.

For some comparison. Bowe had a catch rate of 55.1%.
McCluster had a catch rate of 74.3%.

Bowe had 107 targets, 65 catchable, 59 receptions, and 6 drops.
McCluster had 70 targets, 59 catchable, 52 receptions, and 7 drops

The numbers below are all based on targets of 20 yards or more.

Baldwin had 17 targets, 3 catchable, 3 receptions, 0 drops.
Bowe had 22.targets, 6 catchable, 5 receptions, 1 drop.

Baldwin had 3 receptions for 86 yards,
Bowe had 5.receptions for 157 yards.

Read more at http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/174215-49ers-acquire-jon-baldwin-jenkins/page78/#ucx8foQTuq9v9lsQ.99

Do you not see the logical disconnect here?


PFF has him for 46 targets, 21 catchable, 20 receptions, and one drop in 2012 regular season.


But, his catch rate is pretty low--43.5%. He caught 20 of the 46 balls thrown to him.


So he had 46 targets but only 21 were deemed catchable...who gives a damn what his catch rate was?

Receivers that are considered good almost always have much higher catch rates than Baldwin.

But, I am not an expert so I really do not know what value should be given to the catch rates.

Well....its a miss leading stat so its easy to see the confusion between you. Where the rubber meets the road is the reason why the uncatchable balls were uncatchable. Did he run a bad route so that he wasnt where the pass was, or was the throw off target and he simply couldnt get to it. Given the QB play there and cross referencing the stats of other players on the team....I would bet it is half and half. With a much better QB and some solid coaching on how to run his patterns its reasonable to think he will improve quite a bit here given time. The superior QB play alone should yield at least a modest bump in production.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
Go look at what Larry Fitzgerald's numbers looked like last season and tell me that the QB doesn't have anything to do with it. Behind Arizona, KC had the 2nd worst QB situation in the NFL. Not to say that Baldwin will turn out to be anything more than the bust he appears to be, but its hard to judge with the garbage the Chiefs were putting behind center.

You are right. Catch rates are not a definitive statement about receivers. I never meant to imply that.

Poor quarterback play has to be taken into consideration, and Larry Fitzgerald's numbers are absolute proof that catch rates are not by themselves all that telling.

Nevertheless, I still believe a high catch rate is a positive. But, I could be wrong.

I think Baldwin might go onto the PS if he is eligible? I think they want to try him as a successor to Boldin to go up and fight for the balls.

From the history, he looks like someone Harbaugh wanted in college and now wants to turn around. Interesting on some reports that Kaep didn't back AJ, I wonder if that was because he barely showed to Atlanta - he was a week late iirc.

Whatever the reason, I think it's AJ's lack of work ethic that got him traded, and this is probably a wake up call to both AJ and Baldwin that they cannot coast in the NFL. I can't see Baldwin starting but I think he'll be viewed as a developmental prospect and cut if he doesn't show the work ethic expected.

Matt Maiocco ‏@MaioccoCSN

Jim Harbaugh said he expects new WR Jon Baldwin to play on Sunday. #49ers

Originally posted by Buchy:
I think Baldwin might go onto the PS if he is eligible? I think they want to try him as a successor to Boldin to go up and fight for the balls.

From the history, he looks like someone Harbaugh wanted in college and now wants to turn around. Interesting on some reports that Kaep didn't back AJ, I wonder if that was because he barely showed to Atlanta - he was a week late iirc.

Whatever the reason, I think it's AJ's lack of work ethic that got him traded, and this is probably a wake up call to both AJ and Baldwin that they cannot coast in the NFL. I can't see Baldwin starting but I think he'll be viewed as a developmental prospect and cut if he doesn't show the work ethic expected.

I doubt that Baldwin is eligible for the practice squad.

But, if he is, I do not think the will assigned to the practice squad.

Originally posted by Jcool:

Matt Maiocco ‏@MaioccoCSN

Jim Harbaugh said he expects new WR Jon Baldwin to play on Sunday. #49ers

if he don't get a catch then he a bust

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by Buchy:
I think Baldwin might go onto the PS if he is eligible? I think they want to try him as a successor to Boldin to go up and fight for the balls.

From the history, he looks like someone Harbaugh wanted in college and now wants to turn around. Interesting on some reports that Kaep didn't back AJ, I wonder if that was because he barely showed to Atlanta - he was a week late iirc.

Whatever the reason, I think it's AJ's lack of work ethic that got him traded, and this is probably a wake up call to both AJ and Baldwin that they cannot coast in the NFL. I can't see Baldwin starting but I think he'll be viewed as a developmental prospect and cut if he doesn't show the work ethic expected.

I doubt that Baldwin is eligible for the practice squad.

But, if he is, I do not think the will assigned to the practice squad.

Plus, to get placed on the practice squad, you have to get cut from the roster. That leaves other teams the option to place him on their 53 man roster. If they want to develop him, it's best to put him on the 53 and make him inactive on gamedays - similar to what was done with the WR that he was traded for.

Originally posted by buck:

Originally posted by Buchy:
I think Baldwin might go onto the PS if he is eligible? I think they want to try him as a successor to Boldin to go up and fight for the balls.

From the history, he looks like someone Harbaugh wanted in college and now wants to turn around. Interesting on some reports that Kaep didn't back AJ, I wonder if that was because he barely showed to Atlanta - he was a week late iirc.

Whatever the reason, I think it's AJ's lack of work ethic that got him traded, and this is probably a wake up call to both AJ and Baldwin that they cannot coast in the NFL. I can't see Baldwin starting but I think he'll be viewed as a developmental prospect and cut if he doesn't show the work ethic expected.

I doubt that Baldwin is eligible for the practice squad.

But, if he is, I do not think the will assigned to the practice squad.

Pretty sure that if you ever made a final 53, you're not eligible for practice squad. Plus, maybe only eligible for first 2 or 3 years.

Pioli: Relationship with Kaepernick will determine Baldwin's fate

http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2013/08/pioli-relationship-with-kaepernick-will-determine-baldwins-fate.html#storylink=cpy