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Bad at Scouting/Evaluating WR's?

  • SaksV
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 794
Originally posted by Marvin49:
Peeps need to get over this draft. Seriously.

1) AJ Jenkins - Bust. It happens. Bill Walsh trade up in the draft to take Reggie McGrew for gods sake.
2) LMJ - Looking like a very good pick

Note here there is no 3rd round pick....we'll talk about that later

4) Looney - Will make the team as a reserve lineman.Was injured when selected and was never expected to be a year one impact player (similar to Lattimore and Carradine).
5) Darius Fleming - Poor guy just can't keep his knee in one piece.
6) Trenton Robinson - Competing for a spot at FS...I think he makes the team. He was singled out by Fangio earlier this month.
6) Jason Slowey - Was always a longshot. SUPER small school but incredibly strong. Was just too raw to make a loaded roster.
7) Cam Johnson - OLB who probably won't make the team because of the number of OLBs in camp.

Outside of AJ, you are judging Baalke on players that were taken LONG after the 1st 3 rounds of the draft. If those guys end up as anything other than backup players you are hitting a home run. It isn't EXPECTED that those players turn into pro bowlers.

The other piece you are missing is all the trades that were made in the 2012 draft that resulted in picks THIS year. In 2012, those trades resulted in extra picks in the 3rd, 5th, and 6th rounds of the 2013 draft. Some of those picks were used to bounce up and down in the 2013 draft. In fact, I THINK one of them was used to jump up to 18 to take Eric Reid. The trade in 2012 was a move down from the 3rd round into the 4th (for Looney) and a 2013 3rd round pick. Essentially, the 49ers moved up 13 picks in round one my moving down about 70 spots into round 4 the previous year.

The best part is that they still had a 3rd rounder after the trade in order to select Corey Lemonier....after another trade UP.

Drafts don't exist in a void. Very often prior drafts have an effect on later drafts. Many of the picks in the 2012 draft that is being viewed so harshly didn't pay their dividends until the 2013 draft.

This is continuing BTW. The Niners this past year moved down from 33 to 40 and got ANOTHER 3rd round pick this coming year.

Looking at one draft in a bubble like this makes zero sense so it's no surprise that people come to the entirely wrong conclusion.

Excellent post Marvin
  • SaksV
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 794
Originally posted by hondakillerzx:
so youre saying he sucks

Lol precisely.
Originally posted by Marvin49:
Peeps need to get over this draft. Seriously.

1) AJ Jenkins - Bust. It happens. Bill Walsh trade up in the draft to take Reggie McGrew for gods sake.
2) LMJ - Looking like a very good pick

Note here there is no 3rd round pick....we'll talk about that later

4) Looney - Will make the team as a reserve lineman.Was injured when selected and was never expected to be a year one impact player (similar to Lattimore and Carradine).
5) Darius Fleming - Poor guy just can't keep his knee in one piece.
6) Trenton Robinson - Competing for a spot at FS...I think he makes the team. He was singled out by Fangio earlier this month.
6) Jason Slowey - Was always a longshot. SUPER small school but incredibly strong. Was just too raw to make a loaded roster.
7) Cam Johnson - OLB who probably won't make the team because of the number of OLBs in camp.

Outside of AJ, you are judging Baalke on players that were taken LONG after the 1st 3 rounds of the draft. If those guys end up as anything other than backup players you are hitting a home run. It isn't EXPECTED that those players turn into pro bowlers.

The other piece you are missing is all the trades that were made in the 2012 draft that resulted in picks THIS year. In 2012, those trades resulted in extra picks in the 3rd, 5th, and 6th rounds of the 2013 draft. Some of those picks were used to bounce up and down in the 2013 draft. In fact, I THINK one of them was used to jump up to 18 to take Eric Reid. The trade in 2012 was a move down from the 3rd round into the 4th (for Looney) and a 2013 3rd round pick. Essentially, the 49ers moved up 13 picks in round one my moving down about 70 spots into round 4 the previous year.

The best part is that they still had a 3rd rounder after the trade in order to select Corey Lemonier....after another trade UP.

Drafts don't exist in a void. Very often prior drafts have an effect on later drafts. Many of the picks in the 2012 draft that is being viewed so harshly didn't pay their dividends until the 2013 draft.

This is continuing BTW. The Niners this past year moved down from 33 to 40 and got ANOTHER 3rd round pick this coming year.

Looking at one draft in a bubble like this makes zero sense so it's no surprise that people come to the entirely wrong conclusion.

/thread

Thanks Marvin!
Wow, I initially didn't want to respond to this post but I couldn't help myself. First of all, the 2012 draft was bad but not as awful as one may think. Hindsight is 20/20 and you can't look at talent evaluation in isolation. Thank goodness our front office isn't as nearsighted as this post. In 2012, the Niners had a strong team with a lot of talent. Their core need was offensive explosiveness to complement a team stacked on defense and strong in core positions on offense. The strategy of this draft was to get explosive. Although Jenkins is awful (I can't defend this), the FO was looking for a fast outside receiver with good hands (things you can't teach). Jenkins is fast with good hands. His big weakness was literally his weakness but that is the one thing you can improve on. They took a gamble on this and lost but I really do believe it was a smart calculated gamble based on drafting low in the first round. The second round looks like a solid pick with LMJ. The misses in round 5 and on are actually the norm in the league. No doubt this was not a good draft but it is far from historically awful.

I for one really like Baalke, not because he's hit in 2010 and 2011 but because he starts with a solid strategy.

- He is self-aware enough to know you're going to miss and miss a lot. He collects lots of picks because if your odds of hitting are low, increase your numbers because that's easier than increasing your odds.

- Take risks based on your team's place in the NFL. If you're stacked, take higher risks on certain positions and backfill core positions with numbers hoping you'll get something unexpected. The key is being able to take smart risks and if they fail, move on quickly (Taylor Mays, Jenkins).

All that being said, I don't think this is the best talent evaluating group ever because it's still early but so far, I like what I see. Even the misses had solid logic behind them.
Originally posted by threelittlebirds:
Yeah, Baalke needs to get fired. Who wants a guy who can draft players like Iupati, Davis, Bowman, Aldon, Kaepernick, Hunter, Culliver, Miller, LMJ.

I say we get rid of the entire Personnel department and replace them with the internet experts who knew for sure guys were busts a year after the draft occurred.

Seriously man, it's impossible for any GM to draft future all-pros.
Lol, for some reason I picture Baalke... 2 sheets to the wind and drink in hand after a bad day at work. Googles himself and starts reading a thread like this...
LMJ looks like sh!t, he's a light weight and got rocked in the KC game!
Originally posted by SaksV:
Overrated? Here's SOME of what the overrated Trent Baalke has done since being incorporated into the Front Office in 2010....

DRAFTED Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati, Navorro Bowman, Kyle Williams, Boobie Dixon, Bruce Miller, Daniel Kilgore, Kendal Hunter, Chris Culliver, Colin Kaeprnick and Aldon Smith. ELEVEN Pro-Bowl/Solid contributors to the current roster.
He was pressured by Mike Singletary into selecting Taylor Mays and as soon as he had the chance, he traded Mays away for what would become Bruce Miller IIRC.

Got rid of Nate Clements and his gargantuan contract, and replaced him with Carlos Rogers and added a Donte Whitner for good measure. Both enjoyed their best seasons as 49ers in 2011 and are still a large part of the teams plan to win the Super Bowl.

REVAMPED the Offensive Line from by cutting names like Baas, Wragge, Rachal and Snyder

Traded Alex Smith for Vance McDonald/Tank Carradine plus a future selection in the Top 100.

Extended the contract of Ahmad Brooks, Justin Smith, Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Anthony Davis, Patrick Willis, Navarro Bowman and Joe Staley. Our core.

That's just off the top of my head..............

Kilgore is a solid contributor? Really?
Originally posted by jenkinswins:
LMJ looks like sh!t, he's a light weight and got rocked in the KC game!

Welcome back, kcfan11
  • SaksV
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 794
Originally posted by 9erReign:
Kilgore is a solid contributor? Really?

I always find it funny when people walk by a forest and only acknowledge one tree....as you were.

For what it's worth, Kilgore is a good ST guy and contributed on short yardage runs last year. This season, he is in line to possibly beat Goodwin for starting C. Call it whatever you wanna call it...
Originally posted by spizzy:
I like to think of myself as a pretty objective fan. I try not to get emotionally invested in specific players (except Gore) and faith in the front office as much as the next guy. But the amount of sheer praise and biased trust in Baalke and our scouting department is ridiculous. Yes, our 2011 draft class is historically awesome. But the 2012 draft is one of, if not THE, worst draft we've ever had.

1 30 A.J. Jenkins WR Illinois- no explanation needed

2 61 LaMichael James RB Oregon- looking like a solid contributor

4 117 Joe Looney C/G Wake Fores- tbd

5 165 Darius Fleming OLB Notre Dame- cant stay healthy, very low chance of making team next year

6 180 Trent Robinson SS Michigan State- will probably be cut soon

6 199 Jason Slowey T Western Oregon- who?

7 237 Cam Johnson DE Virginia- MIGHT be a ST contributer



All I'm saying is, don't think for one second Baalke is the best talent evaluator or even near the top of the league. I do however have confidence that he will learn from his mistakes


PS can the season just get here already??

Fact is that we have one of the very best rosters and coaching staffs in the NFL. We nearly won the chip 2 years running and other franchises are modeling themselves by our front office. These are facts. He hired Harbaugh and is responsible for this team. He has his hits and misses but Baalke is not over rated
Originally posted by SaksV:
Originally posted by 9erReign:
Kilgore is a solid contributor? Really?

I always find it funny when people walk by a forest and only acknowledge one tree....as you were.

For what it's worth, Kilgore is a good ST guy and contributed on short yardage runs last year. This season, he is in line to possibly beat Goodwin for starting C. Call it whatever you wanna call it...

I see a forest of great players. Mostly from McCloughan/Nolan. Gore, Willis, Staley, Vernon, Crabs, Boone, Brown, Justin Smith, Brooks, Haralson. Baalke has supplemented that incredible foundation well and had some good FA pickups. But he can't be judged for another 5 years or so. The greatest move he has made so far is getting Harbaugh. Other than that, jury still out.
Originally posted by 9erReign:
Originally posted by SaksV:
Originally posted by 9erReign:
Kilgore is a solid contributor? Really?

I always find it funny when people walk by a forest and only acknowledge one tree....as you were.

For what it's worth, Kilgore is a good ST guy and contributed on short yardage runs last year. This season, he is in line to possibly beat Goodwin for starting C. Call it whatever you wanna call it...

I see a forest of great players. Mostly from McCloughan/Nolan. Gore, Willis, Staley, Vernon, Crabs, Boone, Brown, Justin Smith, Brooks, Haralson. Baalke has supplemented that incredible foundation well and had some good FA pickups. But he can't be judged for another 5 years or so. The greatest move he has made so far is getting Harbaugh. Other than that, jury still out.

Then Kap then Aldon and we have this class with an unwritten story
Originally posted by Imfasterthanur:
The sample size is way too small to make an accurate prediction. From the looks of it, 2013 looks to be another solid draft, making it 2 good drafts (i.e., 2011 and 2013) and one poor draft (i.e., 2012) for Trent Balke.

To be "objective" and "detached", based on the limited information we have, Balke is likely to hit on 2/3rds or 66% of his picks -- thus rejecting your hypothesis that he is overrated as he hits on more picks than not

(with confidence interval of 95% P < .05) -- -- I just made a statistics joke. My life has sunk to a new low.

I can sink lower. I recognized that as a Statistics joke, but did not understand well enough to get it. It was kind of a confused, uneasy laughter, with a little pit in the bottom of my stomach thinking back to my poor performance in Statistics back in the day.
Originally posted by 5280High:
Wow, f*cking chicken little thread if I've ever seen one. No one hits on draft picks everytime, it's not Baalkes fault Fleming can't stay healthy, Johnson is looking like a solid contributor but will probably get cut cause of the rookie stud Lemonier, Looney has looked alright not great but alright considering he has Omgmameh next to him. LMJ is a solid role player. Slowey? Really? Lets harp on 6th and 7th round picks lol!

Baalke has hit more than missed, and even when he misses he still gets something like a pick for Mays or Baldwin for AJ. What else could a fan want? No one hits on every pick even Ozzie newsome misses allot and he is considered the best in the league at scouting. Get over it and enjoy this years class cause it will shut up all the haters for yets to come.

this about sums it up
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