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Bad at Scouting/Evaluating WR's?

He hits on oline and defensive players that's for sure. Has the balls to realize if it's not working with a player he needs to make a move. So hey you can't get an all pro, you made the mistake and to not let your ego get in the way and do what's right for the team and move that player is a good quality to have in a gm..
Recent WR draft choices and position Baalke held with the team.
Also, top WR's for that season (To give you an idea who the team felt comfortable deploying).

Dir. of Player Personnel - 2008-2009
2008: 6th, #8 Josh Morgan (Isaac Bruce, Bryant Johnson, Josh Morgan, Arnaz Battle)
2009: 1st, #10 Michael Crabtree (Josh Morgan, Isaac Bruce, Delanie Walker, Jason Hill)

VP of Player Personnel - 2010
2010: 6th, #37 Kyle Williams (Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, Delanie Walker, Ted Ginn Jr.)

GM - 2011-present
2011: 6th, #17 Ronald Johnson (Michael Crabtree, Kyle Williams, Ted Ginn Jr., Josh Morgan, Braylon Edwards)
2012: 1st, #30 A.J. Jenkins (Michael Crabtree, Mario Manningham, Randy Moss, Kyle Williams)
2013: 4th, #31 Quinton Patton (Anquan Boldin, ??????????)

The 49ers have one of the deepest, most talented rosters in the league. Our QB, O/D line, RB's, LB's, TE's and even the secondary respectively rank among the best in the NFL. But for some reason, the FO can't assemble formidable WR's. No wonder 3rd down and red-zone conversion %'s perennially suck.

Acquiring a top free agent would be too expensive, so the answer is through the draft! Crabtree's injury is a crying shame, but behind him the is zero depth, and I call that just plain irresponsible.
Originally posted by doc_brown_:
Recent WR draft choices and position Baalke held with the team.
Also, top WR's for that season (To give you an idea who the team felt comfortable deploying).

Dir. of Player Personnel - 2008-2009
2008: 6th, #8 Josh Morgan (Isaac Bruce, Bryant Johnson, Josh Morgan, Arnaz Battle)
2009: 1st, #10 Michael Crabtree (Josh Morgan, Isaac Bruce, Delanie Walker, Jason Hill)

VP of Player Personnel - 2010
2010: 6th, #37 Kyle Williams (Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, Delanie Walker, Ted Ginn Jr.)

GM - 2011-present
2011: 6th, #17 Ronald Johnson (Michael Crabtree, Kyle Williams, Ted Ginn Jr., Josh Morgan, Braylon Edwards)
2012: 1st, #30 A.J. Jenkins (Michael Crabtree, Mario Manningham, Randy Moss, Kyle Williams)
2013: 4th, #31 Quinton Patton (Anquan Boldin, ??????????)

The 49ers have one of the deepest, most talented rosters in the league. Our QB, O/D line, RB's, LB's, TE's and even the secondary respectively rank among the best in the NFL. But for some reason, the FO can't assemble formidable WR's. No wonder 3rd down and red-zone conversion %'s perennially suck.

Acquiring a top free agent would be too expensive, so the answer is through the draft! Crabtree's injury is a crying shame, but behind him the is zero depth, and I call that just plain irresponsible.

i think we'll be ok. we have Crabs and Rio coming back (last years majority starters) Boldin who is a beast, Kyle who is a decent receiver who can do some damage in the slot, a huge intriguing prospect now in baldwin who has some experience, moore who has a little experience and the coaches seem to be impressed with him. collie is a decent vet and the rest are inexperienced guys with potential, including our rookie patton who was a steal where we got him. out of this group we should be able to field a decent receiving corps. especially after crabs and rio come back i expect it to go from a weakness to a strength. crabs, boldin, manningham, williams, baldwin, patton looks like a damn good receiving corps to me.
  • buck
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Originally posted by doc_brown_:
VP of Player Personnel - 2010
2010: 6th, #37 Kyle Williams (Michael Crabtree, Josh Morgan, Delanie Walker, Ted Ginn Jr.)

At the time of the 2010 draft, Baalke was the interim general manager, not the VP of Player Personnel. He was promoted almost immediately prior to the draft.

He was in charge of the draft.

Here is an excerpt from an article.

My experience working with San Francisco 49ers general manager Trent Baalke

My first time meeting Baalke was after the draft back in 2010. He was named as the interim general manager prior to the draft and some wondered how he would handle the responsibilities.

One thing that really impressed me about him was he was very accessible. After that draft in 2010, he invited the local media to join him in a film session Q&A. In the defensive meeting room at team headquarters, Baalke greeted every member of the media. (And he remembers the name of every person he met that day.)

I was still rather new to covering the team and this was something that I really appreciated (and I am sure the other writers did too). What Baalke did was show us college film of every single draft pick the 49ers made. He broke down the film, explaining what he liked about each pick and what he didn't like. He allowed us to interact with him, asking him about his decision to draft a certain player and what he envisioned for them.

http://butattheendoftheday.com/2012/02/10/my-experience-working-with-san-francisco-49ers-general-manager-trent-baalke/
[ Edited by buck on Aug 20, 2013 at 3:25 AM ]
  • buck
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 8,520
Originally posted by ayetee:
Originally posted by doc_brown_:
Are Baalke and Co. bad at scouting and evaluating college WR's?

In the 2011 draft, The Niners selected Ronald Johnson in the 6th round, who no longer is in the NFL

In the 2012 draft, The Niners selected A.J. Jenkins in the 1st round. Jenkins is probably the 7th best WR currently on the Niners roster and has looked terrible in games.

Notable WR's taken after Jenkins are:
- Alshon Jeffery
- Ryan Broyles
- Reuben Randle
- T.J. Graham
- Mohamed Sanu
- T.Y. Hilton
- Chris Givens
- Josh Gordon

Baalke and Co. stared these guys in the faces and still decided to pull the trigger on Jenkins. For me, this begs the question; Is Baalke bad at evaluating college WR's? It remains to be seen if Quinton Patton succeeds in the NFL, or if Jenkins can salvage his young career.

The Niners have drafted players with character concerns before, so for me, that is not an excuse for passing on guys like Alshon Jeffery and Josh Gordon.

Tell me what you guys think.
I think you have perfect 20/20 hind sight.

Hind sight quite frequently is as bad as just plain old sight.

Baalke has been in charge of four drafts for the team. He has selected four wide receivers.

The OP only speaks of two of the four. Those two happen to be the worst of his four picks.

20/20 hindsight has to be better than that.
Jenkins had a fine career at Illinois...speed, ran good routes, nothing to suggest he couldn't make it in the NFL. Even more so for Rashaun Woods...I saw the kid play a number of games in college and he looked for all the world to be a "can't miss" prospect. Sometimes young guys just can't adjust to the demands of the NFL. I'll bet if you look around the NFL, there are plenty of teams who've missed on WR's. I don't think there's anything wrong with our scouts...just had some bad luck.
Crabtree was scouted pretty good. He's just had a long time of adjustment because of attitude problems and he got hurt. But when he did finally mature he get a lot better. And he lived up to his draft status. It just took a while. And anybody can get hurt. It's unfortunate. But the NFL is a rough game. Nobody wanted him to get hurt or counted on that.
I think drafting a WR is the hardest part, your not drafting the obvious Calvin Johnson, Fitz.. AJ Green.. WR still needs developing but then again .. the WR needs to put in work, A player can look good in College highlights but cant do the same up in the NFL.
Interested statistical analysis of the difficulty in evaluating wide receivers:
http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/157/Old_Projects/Amrit_Dhar.pdf


The author also notes, "players that do extraordinarily well in their final season while having generally average
college careers, get overrated in the draft rankings and end up being poor receivers in the
NFL."

which sounds a lot like Jenkins, who did not do much his first 3 years but did exceptionally well in his senior year.

The author also says, "I am also unable to quantify the character and motivation of a receiver; wide receivers that perform very well in college may shirk in the NFL and begin
to perform poorly if they develop a bad work ethic"

which also sounds like Jenkins.
I like to think of myself as a pretty objective fan. I try not to get emotionally invested in specific players (except Gore) and faith in the front office as much as the next guy. But the amount of sheer praise and biased trust in Baalke and our scouting department is ridiculous. Yes, our 2011 draft class is historically awesome. But the 2012 draft is one of, if not THE, worst draft we've ever had.

1 30 A.J. Jenkins WR Illinois- no explanation needed

2 61 LaMichael James RB Oregon- looking like a solid contributor

4 117 Joe Looney C/G Wake Fores- tbd

5 165 Darius Fleming OLB Notre Dame- cant stay healthy, very low chance of making team next year

6 180 Trent Robinson SS Michigan State- will probably be cut soon

6 199 Jason Slowey T Western Oregon- who?

7 237 Cam Johnson DE Virginia- MIGHT be a ST contributer



All I'm saying is, don't think for one second Baalke is the best talent evaluator or even near the top of the league. I do however have confidence that he will learn from his mistakes


PS can the season just get here already??
Originally posted by spizzy:
I like to think of myself as a pretty objective fan. I try not to get emotionally invested in specific players (except Gore) and faith in the front office as much as the next guy. But the amount of sheer praise and biased trust in Baalke and our scouting department is ridiculous. Yes, our 2011 draft class is historically awesome. But the 2012 draft is one of, if not THE, worst draft we've ever had.

1 30 A.J. Jenkins WR Illinois- no explanation needed

2 61 LaMichael James RB Oregon- looking like a solid contributor

4 117 Joe Looney C/G Wake Fores- tbd

5 165 Darius Fleming OLB Notre Dame- cant stay healthy, very low chance of making team next year

6 180 Trent Robinson SS Michigan State- will probably be cut soon

6 199 Jason Slowey T Western Oregon- who?

7 237 Cam Johnson DE Virginia- MIGHT be a ST contributer



All I'm saying is, don't think for one second Baalke is the best talent evaluator or even near the top of the league. I do however have confidence that he will learn from his mistakes


PS can the season just get here already??

Haha. As bad as this draft was (and it was real bad) he is still not overrated. He knocked it out of the park in 2011 and I think he got cocky during the 2012 draft. I think the 2013 draft looks like it has some good pieces. I would take 2012 as the exception and not the trend, although I agree it is awful.
Meh. What about our 2013 Draft Class? Obviously it's yet to be determined, but so far it looks like he's back making good picks. I think he's far from overrated in terms of scouting.
True the only pick I liked from 2012 was LMJ
[ Edited by TexasNiner915 on Aug 20, 2013 at 9:16 AM ]
Originally posted by mattster03:
Meh. What about our 2013 Draft Class? Obviously it's yet to be determined, but so far it looks like he's back making good picks. I think he's far from overrated in terms of scouting.

Its TBD but McDonald looks like a good pick as well as Lemonier. I didn't like that he took so many injured players though but we will see
I dont' think we have to swing for the fences on every pick. Just keep getting on base and we'll be fine
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