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Aldon Smith vs. DeMarcus Ware

  • buck
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Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
All he has to do is copy/paste. Not much thinking involved in that.

Hey, I was copying/pasting when I remember the above post. That was about me. I stopped. This is what I had done.

Overall Ranking

Aldon Smith--30.8
DeMarcus Ware--24.5

Rush
Aldon Smith--27
DeMarcus Ware--26.9

Cover
Aldon Smith--1.2
DeMarcus Ware--3

Run

Aldon Smith--2.8
DeMarcus Ware--2.6

Originally posted by buck:
Hey, I was copying/pasting when I remember the above post. That was about me. I stopped. This is what I had done.

Overall Ranking

Aldon Smith--30.8
DeMarcus Ware--24.5

Rush
Aldon Smith--27
DeMarcus Ware--26.9

Cover
Aldon Smith--1.2
DeMarcus Ware--3

Run

Aldon Smith--2.8
DeMarcus Ware--2.6

What does this mean? Are lower numbers better, or worse? Is this 2011 vs 2005?
  • buck
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Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
Originally posted by buck:
Hey, I was copying/pasting when I remember the above post. That was about me. I stopped. This is what I had done.

Overall Ranking

Aldon Smith--30.8
DeMarcus Ware--24.5

Rush
Aldon Smith--27
DeMarcus Ware--26.9

Cover
Aldon Smith--1.2
DeMarcus Ware--3

Run

Aldon Smith--2.8
DeMarcus Ware--2.6

What does this mean? Are lower numbers better, or worse? Is this 2011 vs 2005?

That is for 2011.
The higher the number, the better
I think that I have told you this before, but I only have the number from 2008 to present.
[ Edited by buck on Jul 4, 2013 at 4:35 PM ]
I still have to say that I've always thought of DeMarcus Ware as the cream of the crop in the NFL and I'm just incredibly glad the Niners now have a pass rushing OLB who can be compared with Ware. And, he's just getting started - pretty awesome.
  • buck
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Originally posted by GNielsen:
I still have to say that I've always thought of DeMarcus Ware as the cream of the crop in the NFL and I'm just incredibly glad the Niners now have a pass rushing OLB who can be compared with Ware. And, he's just getting started - pretty awesome.

DeMarcus Ware has been an excellent 3-4 outside linebacker, yeah the cream of the crop, and he still is very good.

I have no problem with Ware.

Originally posted by GNielsen:
I still have to say that I've always thought of DeMarcus Ware as the cream of the crop in the NFL and I'm just incredibly glad the Niners now have a pass rushing OLB who can be compared with Ware. And, he's just getting started - pretty awesome.

Yes sir, I might add that this has really opened up my eyes to just how good aldon really is.
  • buck
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PFF looks at stats through their particular set of lenses. I happen to like their overall approach, but that is only my point of view.

The main reason I paid for to get their premium stats was to bring those stats to this forum to help inform our discussions.

Below is an excerpt from their explanation of their grading system. I hope that you find it useful.

Grading.

1) Why do we grade?

The goal of our detailed grading process is to gauge how players execute their roles over the course of a game by looking at the performance of each individual on each play. We look beyond the stat sheet at game footage to try to gain an understanding of how well a lineman is blocking on a given play, how much space and help a runner is being given on a play, how effectively a pass rusher brings pressure or how well a defender covers a receiver. . We collect lots of extra statistics such as yards after catch, yards after contact, missed tackles, dropped passes etc., but our real focus is on grading individual performance on each play.

Did an offensive lineman seal his block to spring the runner through a hole? Did a defensive lineman beat his block to force a runner to change the play direction in the backfield? Was the crucial third-down completion due to the quarterback beating the coverage or a breakdown in coverage? .

We examine not just the statistical result of a play, but the context of that statistic. The defensive tackle may have made a tackle on a play, but if it was 3rd-and-5 and he got blown 4 yards off of the ball to make the tackle after a 6-yard gain, that's not a good play. .

This allows us to present a unique set of statistics for individual player performance in each game. We present base statistics alongside more advanced statistics together with a grade for every player. The marks are presented as overall composite grades but are also broken down in a number of key areas:.

Offense • Running • Passing and receiving • Pass protection • Run blocking • Screen blocking

Defense • Run defense • Pass rushing • Pass coverage .

.2) What Do We Grade?

Throughout the course of the season (regular season and playoffs) we grade every single offensive, defensive and special teams snap. We log data such as the point of attack of a running play, the location a pass was thrown and hang time of kicks and punts before moving on to the player-performance analysis. . A typical line of analysis will describe an offensive and defensive player being graded for a one-on-one confrontation. This will include their names and grades as well as a comment describing the play. So for example, a match-up between a right guard and left defensive tackle could result in the following comment: .

"The RG drove the DLT down the line of scrimmage opening a wide hole off his outside hip for the running back (##) to pick up the first down on 3rd & 3." . This type of notation serves a few purposes. First, it captures detail for grading, a concise comment that can be referenced back to individual players for further analysis at a later date. Also, due to each play having a unique ID, it also creates a clear and accessible audit trail for all analysis. . .

3) How Do We Grade?

Each grade given is between +2 and -2, with 0.5 increments and an average of 0. A positive intervention in the game rates a positive grading and vice-versa. Very (very) few performances draw a +/-2 rating. In fact, the distribution of non-zero grades is like this: .

+2.00.01percent+1.50.3percent+1.016percent+0.537percent (unbalanced because of the way WRs and HBs are rated)-0.524percent-1.022percent-1.50.5percent-2.00.01percent.

The grading takes into account many things and effectively brings "intelligence" to raw statistics. . For example, a raw stat might tell you a tackle conceded a sack. However, how long did he protect the QB for before he gave it up?

Additionally, when did he give it up? If it was within the last two minutes on a potentially game-tying drive, it may be rather more important than when his team is running out the clock in a 30-point blowout. .

The average grade, or what we would typically expect of the average player, is therefore defined as zero. In reality, the vast majority of grades on each individual play are zero and what we are grading are the exceptions to this. .

A seal block on the backside of a play, for example, is something that it is reasonable to expect to be completed successfully. Consequently, it receives a zero grade, whereas the differentiation between a good and poor block is a heavy downgrade for a failed seal block to the backside of a running play. . .

4) The "Rules" of Grading

Because of the nature of the roles, each position is graded in a slightly different way and the definitions for each run on for many pages. Although we're not going to publish our 30+ page document on how we do this, not least because that's our IP, below are a few of the key principles in our grading methodology: .

• DON'T GUESS — If you're not 95 percent sure what's gone on then don't grade the player for that play. The grades must stand up to scrutiny and criticism, and it's far better to say you're not sure than be wrong.

It is, however, crucial that this is not seen as an excuse to shy away from making a judgement. What we definitely do not do is raise or lower the grading because we're not sure. Giving a grade of -0.5 rather than -1.5 for a player on an individual play because you're unsure is the wrong grade to give. If the grader is 95 percent sure of the severe fault on the play, the grade is -1.5. If, however, the grader is unsure of his judgment, the correct grade is 0. . • WE ARE NOT SCOUTS — We aren't looking for (or grading) style or technique, merely the result of the play. We aren't looking for promise and potential that can be coached up. We aren't looking for things like "heavy-legged waist benders" on the O-line. We aren't looking for DBs with "stiff hips."

We are looking for the result of that poor technique, not the poor technique itself. If poor technique results in a positive play, that is graded at the same level as good technique yielding a positive play. Did the lineman make the block he attempted, by whatever means?

This is professional football, and our biggest assumption (one that we feel, and have been informed, is a very safe assumption) is that the player at least attempted to complete his assignment on an individual play. This removes a large degree of the doubt surrounding us not having access to playbooks and play calls.

We are grading what happened, and it is safe to assume that in the vast majority of cases the assignments carried out were the assignments called on that play. .

• YOU DO NOT HAVE TO APPORTION BLAME ON EVERY PLAY — On each play there is often a "winner." One unit, be it the offense or the defense, will usually get the better of a play by varying degrees. This, however, does not entail that one or more individuals on the losing unit are to blame.

For example, if an offense is stopped on 3rd-and-3 on a running play for 2 yards, that would constitute a failure for the offensive unit. But each member of the offense may very well have carried out his assignment properly.

Say the defense sets up overloaded against the run. Every defender except one is successfully blocked. A lone, unblocked defender makes a strong tackle to stop the back short of the marker.

In that instance, no one individual is at fault for the play failing. The defense simply had the right play called. Sometimes plays are designed badly, sometimes coaches don't adjust. This site is looking at individual player performance, not that of coaches and not necessarily how individual player performance correlates with team performance.

. • GREAT PLAYERS SCREW UP TOO — Blame is apportioned according to who is at fault on the play, not according to seniority. If a veteran QB clearly overthrows a rookie WR, it is not assumed the rookie got something wrong (as some commentators and journalists assume while watching the game live).

We treat players as a number rather than a name and the reputation attached to that name. We treat Ray Lewis as Baltimore No. 52 and see what grade he comes out with at the end for the individual performances in that game. .

• ZERO (0.0) IS THE AVERAGE GRADE — If a player does something you would normally expect, then this scores a 0. If a linebacker makes an unblocked tackle 5 yards downfield or a tight end makes a wide-open catch for an 8-yard gain, they receive a score of 0 for that play.

Grades are given for plays which are reasonably considered to be better or worse than the average or expected play. So for example, if the linebacker were to then force a fumble on that tackle, that would constitute a positive play and a positive grade. If the tight end were to in fact drop the wide-open pass, that would constitute a negative play and a negative grade.


http://www.profootballfocus.com/about/grading/
The problem with having a grader rate individual plays is that an element of subjectivity can intrude into the process. They must have a pretty exhaustive set of assigned +/- behaviors to keep the grading consistent -- so that judges agree that a blown tackle at midfield is -.01 and a blown tackle at the goal line is -.03 say. Otherwise you can see items like that can get out of hand depending on who is grading. Maybe they also have more than one judge assign grades, and post the average.

It's an interesting service.

It looks like Pass rushing they are ranked essentially even, Ware scores better in pass d, Aldon looks a little better against the run. This is for 2011 (when both players were healthier)?

Have we ever found out about tackles + sacks -- whether sacks count as tackles from PFF or NFL stats?
  • buck
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Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak:
The problem with having a grader rate individual plays is that an element of subjectivity can intrude into the process. They must have a pretty exhaustive set of assigned +/- behaviors to keep the grading consistent -- so that judges agree that a blown tackle at midfield is -.01 and a blown tackle at the goal line is -.03 say. Otherwise you can see items like that can get out of hand depending on who is grading. Maybe they also have more than one judge assign grades, and post the average.

It's an interesting service.

It looks like Pass rushing they are ranked essentially even, Ware scores better in pass d, Aldon looks a little better against the run. This is for 2011 (when both players were healthier)?

Have we ever found out about tackles + sacks -- whether sacks count as tackles from PFF or NFL stats?

I have not been looking for the information about whether sacks are counted as tackles.
I looked for it about a wee and stopped. I suggest that you continue looking.

In general rating football players is subjective.

I feel that the people doing the rating at PFF are very competent at what they do and they have both time and resources that I do not have.
But, as I have said before, it is best to take their finding with a grain of salt. I look at what other sources have to say.

I think that the notion that Aldon Smith is not asked to as much as DeMarcus Ware is not proven by the numbers.
I think that the notion that Aldon Smith does not play the run or cover as well as DeMarcus Ware is not proven by the numbers.

In no form or fashion, have I said anything that demeans the play of DeMarcus Ware.
The man has been, and remains, a stud. He has earned every ounce of respect he is given.

Unfortunately, Aldon Smith, even though his play in the first two years of his career has been outstanding, is not given the the respect that he has earned.
And yes, that is my opinion, and it is subjective.
Buck hit the nail on the head, Aldon has manhandled tackles the way Reggie White, Bruce Smith used to do. The only comparable player at his position is Von Miller, (Watt is also a beast but isnt an OLB).

If people cant see that Aldon has already surpassed Ware in ability and potential then they're blind. Just my subjective opinion lol.
Originally posted by 5280High:
Buck hit the nail on the head, Aldon has manhandled tackles the way Reggie White, Bruce Smith used to do. The only comparable player at his position is Von Miller, (Watt is also a beast but isnt an OLB).

If people cant see that Aldon has already surpassed Ware in ability and potential then they're blind. Just my subjective opinion lol.

Can you post a video of that -- besides the 5 sack game? I've seen JSmith bull tackles into the bleachers, but not Aldon, who is 30 pounds lighter.
  • buck
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Here are the numbers for DeMarcus Ware and Aldon Smith in the first two years of their careers.
Any comparison has to take into account the difference in games started in their first two years.

Games Started

Aldon Smith 16
DeMarcus Ware 32

Sacks

Aldon Smith 33.5
DeMarcus Ware 19.5

Tackles

Aldon Smith 80—22--102
DeMarcus Ware 106—26—132

Forced Fumbles

Aldon Smith 5
DeMarcus Ware 8

Interceptions

Aldon Smith 1
DeMarcus Ware 1

Passes Defended

Aldon Smith 5
DeMarcus Ware 7

Safeties

Aldon Smith 1
DeMarcus Ware 0
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/
[ Edited by buck on Jul 5, 2013 at 11:18 PM ]
  • buck
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Here are the sack numbers from some of the most famous sack leaders in NFL history.

1. Bruce Smith, 200 sacks, 18 years, sacks per year 11. 11

2. Reggie White, 198 sacks, 15 years, sacks per year 13.20

9. Lawrence Taylor, 132.5 sacks, 13 years, sacks per year 10.19

Aldon Smith has had 16.75 sacks per year.

At that rate, Aldon would pass Lawrence Taylor in 8 years and both Bruce Smith and .Reggie White in 12 years.
edit: These projections are illustrative, not predictive.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/
[ Edited by buck on Jul 6, 2013 at 6:28 AM ]
Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak: Can you post a video of that -- besides the 5 sack game? I've seen JSmith bull tackles into the bleachers, but not Aldon, who is 30 pounds lighter.

Cereal? expand your mind bro...

his first two seasons. Tell me the last time a rookie not named Watt or Miller has come anywhere close to this domination. You gotta look back to White, and Smith. He lines up opposite of Justin about half the time and is still as productive, Nuff said.
[ Edited by 5280High on Jul 6, 2013 at 1:27 AM ]
  • buck
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Originally posted by 5280High:
Originally posted by brodiebluebanaszak: Can you post a video of that -- besides the 5 sack game? I've seen JSmith bull tackles into the bleachers, but not Aldon, who is 30 pounds lighter.
Cereal? expand your mind bro...

his first two seasons. Tell me the last time a rookie not named Watt or Miller has come anywhere close to this domination. You gotta look back to White, and Smith. He lines up opposite of Justin about half the time and is still as productive, Nuff said.

Thanks for the videos.