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bold prediction for the upcoming season

Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Yeah so stop trying to convince me. I'm set in my ways much like harbaugh. Not holding a losing hand, just have the ability to put the love for my team aside when assessing a player's ability. This is not gore's strong suite. He might not have as bad of hands as walker but he they are comparable. I believe walker's drop percentage was around 20% this past year and so was gore's the year before. Again the passes that go to gore are less difficult than the ones walker has to bring in.

Right. I get it and a lot of posters get it. You've got your beliefs and then there are the facts. You aren't about to let the facts get in the way of your beliefs.
Originally posted by GNielsen:
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Yeah so stop trying to convince me. I'm set in my ways much like harbaugh. Not holding a losing hand, just have the ability to put the love for my team aside when assessing a player's ability. This is not gore's strong suite. He might not have as bad of hands as walker but he they are comparable. I believe walker's drop percentage was around 20% this past year and so was gore's the year before. Again the passes that go to gore are less difficult than the ones walker has to bring in.

Right. I get it and a lot of posters get it. You've got your beliefs and then there are the facts. You aren't about to let the facts get in the way of your beliefs.


I provided plenty of facts just as they did. You don't accept mine. I don't accept yours. case closed.
Originally posted by GNielsen:
I don't see them cutting Brooks. He's much more valuable to the defense than some believe. And he doesn't even cost the team that much money. He was actually subject to de-escalator options in his contract because the team didn't win 12 games and his playing percentage was about 1% short of a marker, so his 2013 salary will be something like $2.7 mil instead of the original $4.3 mil. At that cost, he's a tremendous asset to the team. He's under contract through 2017, so the FO obviously believes he's someone they would like to have the option to keep around.


I wasn't talking about this year. So I don't care how much he is making this year. He is scheduled to make 5 next year, then 6 the year after, then 6.5 and finally 7 to finish out his contract. He'll be how old by then? yeah it makes more sense now doesn't it?
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
I provided plenty of facts just as they did. You don't accept mine. I don't accept yours. case closed.

Again, these days there seems to be the tendency with many people to confuse facts and opinions. Your argument rests on your OPINION that the comparative statistics on drops between Walker and Gore favor Gore because the throws to Walker are tougher passes to catch than those to Gore. I hate to break it to you, but that falls into the realm of subjective opinion, not facts. Buck presented the numbers. The numbers are objective facts. You don't accept their value because of a subjective opinion about the relative difficulty of the throws being compared. So, your position rests primarily on subjective opinion and his on objective facts. I'm not sure why that is so hard for some people to grasp.
  • buck
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Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
I never said gore was slowing down besides the receiving game and I do have proof there. 10 drops 2 years, 15 % drop rate, 48 receptions when he used to get that in 1 year.

If Gore is slowing down in the passing game, it is hard to detect. I do not think that you have presented any real proof.

Drop Rate(per catchable pass)

In 2011, Gore had a dismal drop rate of 29.17%.
In 2012, Gore had a drop rate of 12.5%.
In the last year, Gore improved his drop by 16.67%..
His average drop rate over the last five years is 12.37%, which almost the same as his 2012 drop rate.

Drop rate (per target.)

In 2011, Gore had a drop rate per target of 24.13%.
In 2012, Gore had a drop rate per target of 11.76%.
Last year, he improved this rate by 12.37%

His drop per target average of the last five years, is 10.5%
His 2012 drop per target is 2.32% higher than his five year average.

edit: When I did my first calculation of Gore's, I used drops/targets.
I had not found the table with drops/catchable pass.

Catch Rate

In 2011, Gore had a catch rate of 58.62%
In 2012, Gore had a catch rate of 82.35%
In the last year, Gore improved his catch rate by 23.73%
His five year average catch rate is 74.91%.
His catch rate in 2012 was 7.74 % better than his five year average.



Conclusion

If we remember that 2011 was the first year in the new offense, it becomes apparent that Gore's dismal numbers in 2011 were most likely an indication that Gore had a difficult time adapting to the new offense brought in by Harbaugh.

Receptions

In the two years of this new offensive scheme, Gore has 55 receptions--an average of 27.5 a year.

But, in the last two years, he has been targeted a total of 63 times. In the last two years of the old offensive scheme, Gore was targeted 123 times.

There has been a 48.78 decrease in the number of passes thrown to Gore in the new offensive scheme.

In the last two years of the old offensive scheme Gore had 98 receptions—an average of 49.5 a year.

Again, it seems that the reduction in Gore's receptions seems to a result of the differences in offensive scheme, and not a result of Gore slowing down.
[ Edited by buck on Jun 17, 2013 at 3:41 PM ]
Originally posted by GNielsen:
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
I provided plenty of facts just as they did. You don't accept mine. I don't accept yours. case closed.

Again, these days there seems to be the tendency with many people to confuse facts and opinions. Your argument rests on your OPINION that the comparative statistics on drops between Walker and Gore favor Gore because the throws to Walker are tougher passes to catch than those to Gore. I hate to break it to you, but that falls into the realm of subjective opinion, not facts. Buck presented the numbers. The numbers are objective facts. You don't accept their value because of a subjective opinion about the relative difficulty of the throws being compared. So, your position rests primarily on subjective opinion and his on objective facts. I'm not sure why that is so hard for some people to grasp.

Some of my argument was opinion no doubt. But I also threw in facts, just like Idaho. My main argument was with Idaho and not buck. Buck just recently jumped in which is good because I enjoy debating with the 2 of you more than others. I don't think it's subjective opinion that it is easier for gore to catch his passes than it is for walker. Walker is typically a lot further down field than gore is. Balls are typically coming in at a lot faster of a rate to walker as opposed to gore. Gore catches and drops a lot of easy dinks and dunks. Walker catches and drops a lot of bullets and some lob passes. Kaep doesn't lob the ball very often though. I don't see how you couldn't come up with the conclusion that on average gore's passes are easier to bring in than walker's. It's like saying what is harder catching a pass at 40 mph with a higher trajectory or a pass at 25 mph with a lower trajectory. Pretty simple if you ask me, but apparently that's my subjective opinion.

But also if we are talking about just facts, than gore recently (the year before last) had a drop % that was almost the same as walker's this year. Last year gore was at 11 % which was BELOW avg. not on par with the rest of the backs.
[ Edited by JimDrinkAMiller on Jun 17, 2013 at 3:17 PM ]
When you consider that TEs are receivers and RBs are...RBs, it seems Walker should have had better numbers than Gore...particularly as Gore is known for his superior running. I've never confused Gore with great receiving RBs but he has become very proficient. It might be interesting to look at league wide TE to RB numbers in drops, etc.
Gore will get his 1000 unless he doesn't get his usual touches. Boldin will get 10+ tds, and everything else will be so diverified, the team will dominate and not one single individual will, thus teams won't be able zero in on anyone but Kaep.
Part of the problem with Gore, he is rarely asked or used as a saftey valve compared to others as his primary is to block if not carrying the ball on run downs. Maybe they are trying not to wear him out by running out of the backfield so much, however the problem is that this is one of those reading tendencies where you don't worry about gore as a rec., plus like anything else, the more he is thrown to the more his will get better, when he is not asked to often catch the ball then the less eff. he will be of making the sure catch.
Originally posted by buck:
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
I never said gore was slowing down besides the receiving game and I do have proof there. 10 drops 2 years, 15 % drop rate, 48 receptions when he used to get that in 1 year.

If Gore is slowing down in the passing game, it is hard to detect. I do not think that you have presented any real proof.

Drop Rate

In 2011, Gore had a dismal drop rate of 29.17%.
In 2012, Gore had a drop rate of 12.5%.
In the last year, Gore improved his drop by 16.67%..
His average drop rate over the last five years is 12.37%, which almost the same as his 2012 drop rate.

Catch Rate

In 2011, Gore had a catch rate of 58.62%
In 2012, Gore had a catch rate of 82.35%
In the last year, Gore improved his catch rate by 23.73%
His five year average catch rate is 74.91%.
His catch rate in 2012 was 7.74 % better than his five year average.

Conclusion

If we remember that 2011 was the first year in the new offense, it becomes apparent that Gore's dismal numbers in 2011 were most likely an indication that Gore had a difficult time adapting to the new offense brought in by Harbaugh.

Receptions

In the two years of this new offensive scheme, Gore has 55 receptions--an average of 27.5 a year.

But, in the last two years, he has been targeted a total of 63 times. In the last two years of the old offensive scheme, Gore was targeted 123 times.

There has been a 48.78 decrease in the number of passes thrown to Gore in the new offensive scheme.

In the last two years of the old offensive scheme Gore had 98 receptions—an average of 49.5 a year.

Again, it seems that the reduction in Gore's receptions seems to a result of the differences in offensive scheme, and not a result of Gore slowing down.


I don't think a new offense is a reason for gore's production to drop off that badly. He's catching swing passes and things of that nature. He's been in the nfl for long enough to be able to execute a simple swing pass ect.. He also had a total of 45 receptions in 2 years not 55 but no biggie. So he's averaging 22.5 not 27.5.

Hope you had a great father's day with your dad and/or son.
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Originally posted by IdahoNiner:
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
First James isn't a downhill runner, he's a scat back. Again at Oregon they ran more shotgun and exotic formations than they did conventional I formations or 2 tight end sets like a Stanford would. James flourished there and they were a run first team. That is college however, and in the NFL players are a lot faster and can keep up with him. I never once compared lamichael to sproles and I never said he would get anywhere close to 70 receptions like sproles. I said hunter and him combined will get 40/50 and gore will get less. I said lamichael was good in space which is true, and I think he has proven that. The 49ers do a good job at doing different things with him like coming in motion and having a running start, running him out of the pistol where he gets the ball a bit quick, can cut and be more decisive hitting the holes he wants to hit and running him out of the shotgun and delays.

If your talking about basing your opinions on the history of the team under harbaugh than let's look at the last 2 years under him with gore. 48 receptions 10 drops and about a 15% drop rate according to the first source.

You can say that he used to get 50 receptions a year as evidence but the past is the past. Our team was much different back then and we didn't have very much of a receiving core. Neither did steven Jackson or mjd for that matter. MJD is one of the best backs in the league and I'm not knocking his receiving skills just saying he gets more looks. When you don't have anyone open downfield you check down to your back more often obviously.

I never said Gore was incapable just that he isn't as good at it compared to the other backs mentioned Spiller CJ ect... Again LMJ and hunter will get more combined receptions than gore because they are better suited for it IMO. That is the only opinion I'm basing on foresight.

BTW if hunter comes back healthy and possibly stronger I dare say than he will be an upgrade over lamichael. He is a beast. Both these guys are young and on the rise. Gore and Jackson are on the decline. I bet you joaquiz Rodgers gets more receptions than Jackson this year too. Guys are getting faster everywhere on the field. I mentioned qb's in another thread, but LB's are running 4.3's and 4'4's and D-ends are hitting 4.6's no problem. Gore never lost a step but everyone around him did gain one. While he will keep running through guys and putting them on their back, he won't be juking them out or running around them as much as he gets older. Receiving backs are typically more elusive and I think that's what we will se next year for the 49ers.

I never once said LMJ was a "down hill" runner. I said LMJ was a between the tackles runner, that has enough to get to the edge, but isaint the most effective at it without motion. LMJ is NOT a scat back in any shape or form. He just isaint. Im well aware of the offense at Oregon. LMJ is simply a small, elusive, between the tackles back. Again, not a scat back, and im not sure where anyone has ever gotten the idea that he is a scat back other than his size. Where is Oregon when you need him? Im pretty sure he watched nearly every snap LMJ took at Oregon, and im pretty sure he would agree with me.

For that matter i wouldnt call Gore a "down hill" runner either. You talk about Gore as if all he is good for is short yard power gains. That has never been Frank Gores style either. Frank Gore is a between the tackles runner, with probably the best vision of any back in the league, and just enough speed, and just enough verticle movment, and just enough power to find those holes and make considerable use of them. He is not a power down field runner, not sure where you get that impression either. It is Franks vision that makes him special.

And once again you cannot say things like "Gore and Jackson are on the decline" and "LMJ and Hunter are on the rise" without providing atleast some evidence as to why this is true. The fact is there is no evidence of this to be true. You can say LMJ and Hunter are young, and Gore and Jackson are getting older, that is fine and true, but there is no evidence that either LMJ or Hunter are anywhere near the level Gore or Jackson have been their entire careers from day one in the league, and continue to be at 30. There is simply no evidence that anyone can provide to back up that claim. None.

About the only thing i agree with you on is that if Hunter comes back 100% healthy, he is a better back than LMJ. Other than that we dont agree on much.

Regardless, no use going back and forth anymore in this thread. Feel free to open up another thread for discussion and we can take it there.


I'm not sure what you mean by james is an inside the tackle runner. That is pretty vague to me. The case can be made that every runningback in the nfl is an inside the tackle runner. Sproles and Spiller included. They all run between the tackles from time to time. Lamichael James IS a scatback. Scatback and receiving back are two different things. Are you telling me that James runs more like gore than he does a spiller or sproles? That is laughable. How many times do you see james come out in traditional I form? Pros or college? Not as often as he comes out in exotic formations, that's for sure.

I never said frank was a down hill runner. I believe that frank gore's patience is one of his best attributes. I used to get frustrated at how long it would take him to hit the hole because he was so patient. That's just his style though and it works for him. I never talked about gore like he was just a short yardage/goal line back. There is so much more to frank than just that. I only stated that frank isn't as strong as a receiving back as he is at blocking or running. I also stated that hunter and james are better suited at this than frank but that's just my opinion not fact.

I never said gore was on the decline in any aspect of his game besides receiving. Jackson on the other hand is on the decline IMO. Richardson got around 100 carries and around 25 receptions. Jackson only score 4 tds on the year and just barely broke 1000 yards. He averaged around 4 ypc. and Richardson got close to 5. Jackson was being phased out last year and my evidence to that is that is that he's gone this year. lol You would think the rams would match the falcons contract which was pretty mediocre but they didn't. Why? because Jackson is on his way out.

I think everybody saw what kind of talent james and hunter have. Hunter might not be on the incline because he is coming back from injury, but james def. is. I'm assuming that hunter will be coming back healthy. If he picks up where he left off, he will be a beast.

I'm not comparing james or hunter to gore and Jackson. Not rushing or receiving. I am saying however that the combo of the 2 will produce more than gore in the receiving game. That is it. Not saying they are on the level Jackson or gore are on.

I'm not opening up another thread to argue about anything. If you want to continue debating, you can do it here otherwise you can keep your silence.

LOL. Dude your just wrong on so many levels. Go back and read your posts. stop beating around the bush, seriously. Your wrong.

As far as James and Jackson goes, and ever Gore, you obviously have no idea what your talking about. You obviously have no grasp of the Jackson situation this season. Anyone who followed the rams even remotely close will tell you that the decline of Jacksons stats this season was not because of Jackson, but instead the Rams Offense and coaching staff. He simply did not fit in with what the regime and offense wanted to do.

and once again, im not sure you followed LMJ's career at all. Go look at his highlight real atleast. He is not a scat back. Fans want him to be, and perhaps the coaching staff wants him to be, but up until this point in his career, he is nothing like sproles. Nothing. Anyone who makes that comparrisson is doing so in extreme error.
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Your soo dramatic. Did I ever say we should turn things over to james and hunter? No I just said they will produce more than gore in the receiving game. I said gore was getting older not slowing down. Which he is. Usually receiving backs are quick and nimble. Gore is to some degree but not as much as hunter (when healthy) or james IMO. But of course you guys want to blow things out of proportion.

lol spin spin spin. Obviously RB's arent your strong point man.
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
I can say what I like to whoever I like as long as it's within the rules. I wasn't telling him to be quite, I was saying he can remain silent if he likes as he said he was done discussing it. I never said gore was slowing down besides the receiving game and I do have proof there. 10 drops 2 years, 15 % drop rate, 48 receptions when he used to get that in 1 year. Richardson got 24 receptions last year while spelling Jackson and that is what gore is averaging these last 2 years, and jacquizz Rodgers had 53 receptions last year which is more than gore in 2 years and he was also a backup. The years before harbaugh don't apply to the current conversation. Never said anything about him running or blocking. I said father time was catching up to gore which he is! NOT GORE IS SLOWING DOWN. so calm down.

Yea, but see we have effectively highjacked a thread. This is a thread we have every offseason and we are turning it into a rb thread. This is why i suggested you make another discussion post. We actually are walking on the edge of getting this thread locked. I dont want to see that happen, thus why i made the suggestion.

BTW you would be great at conducting government studies.
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Brooks will eventually be phased out if lemonier proves his worth. Maybe late this year at the earliest. I think eventually brooks will either get cut (not this year) in a year or 2 or take a substantial pay cut. He is less important to this team than a couple of people we have to resign. Kaep, aldon, crabs, iupati.. Not to mention gore or j smith if we want them to stick around. Never said anything about kaep or collapsing w/o crabtree so that doesn't apply to me. Father time is catching up to gore but I did not say he was slowing down or that he was in danger of losing his job to anyone. I did say hunter and james will be more productive as pass catchers in our offense. That is all.

LOL At Lemonier phasing out Brooks late this season. The hits just keep coming.
Originally posted by JimDrinkAMiller:
Originally posted by GNielsen:
If Buck's comprehensive set of comparative statistics weren't enough to convince Jim Drinkamiller that he's wrong about Frank Gore's hands, nothing will. Some people are just unable to admit that they're holding a losing hand.

Delanie Walker led the league in drops percentage last season. Gore was in the middle of the pack for drops by running backs. It's just not sound reasoning to compare Frank Gore's pass receiving ability to Walker.


Yeah so stop trying to convince me. I'm set in my ways much like harbaugh. Not holding a losing hand, just have the ability to put the love for my team aside when assessing a player's ability. This is not gore's strong suite. He might not have as bad of hands as walker but he they are comparable. I believe walker's drop percentage was around 20% this past year and so was gore's the year before. Again the passes that go to gore are less difficult than the ones walker has to bring in.

Comparing an HB to a RB is not a fair comparisson. Not in the slightest. Not to mention alot of Delanies drops came at key points of the game, where the mjority of Gores come from dump offs behind the line of scrimmage that likely would go for little gain anyways.

You work for the government dont you? If not they could use you in their studies department.