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TEAM STATS COMPARISON 2011 & 2012, WHAT DO WE NEED TO IMPROVE ON IN 2013?

I was just looking at some team stats from last year ( yeah Im bored ) and it made me think of what people were saying after 2011. Some people thought the 9ers were a bit of a fluke after their 2011 season based on the ridiculous TO diff we posted. +28 was a historically good mark and no way we would keep that up. TO diff is a fickle stat that seems to change year to year. But is it? Lets compare!

2011 2012
SF = +28 NE = +25
GB = +24 CHI = +20
NE = +17 WAS = +17
DET = +11 NYG = +14
SEA = +8 SEA = +13
ATL = +8 ATL = +13
NYG = +7 HOU = +12
HOU = +7 SF = +9
JAX = +5 BAL = +9
DAL = +4 GB = +7
CHI = +2 CIN = +4
BAL = +2 TB = +3

Although the numbers have changed, 9 of the top 12 teams remained the same. In 2011 the top 8 teams and 9/12 overall made the playoffs. In 2012 10/12 made the playoffs ( Chicago choked at the end of the year or they may have made it over the Vikes ). One would think that with a rookie instead of Dashon playing CF and with a young signal caller who fumbled 10 times last year under center, we will have to play very clean football to keep our + TO diff intact. I wonder if the coaches have the same thing in mind when game planning and attacking down the field. Kap will improve, but D's now have tape on him. As talented as he is, he really needs to improve on going to his 2nd and 3rd options. Too many times he locks onto one receiver and stares him down. He gets away with it because of his superior arm strength, but that area needs major improvement or his INT's will go up significantly in a "Soph Slump".

Back to the stats, let's see how our other stats changed from 2011 to 2012 to make up for the 19 less turnovers from 2011-2012.

2011
Offense
PPG= 23.8 (11th)
YPG = 310.9 ( 26th)
Rushing yds = 127.8 ( 8th )
Rushing AVG = 4.1 ( 19th )
Passing yds = 183.1 ( 29th )
Passing AVG = 7.1 ( 17th )
3rd Down % = 29% ( 31st )
4th Down % = 64% ( 2nd )
Pen Yds = 1014 ( 29th )
TOP = 32:08 ( 5th )

Defense
PPG = 14.3 ( 2nd )
YPG = 308.2 ( 4th )
Rushing yds = 77.2 ( 1st )
Rushing AVG = 3.5 ( 1st )
Passing yds = 230.9 ( 16th )
Passing AVG = 6.9 ( 10th )
3rd Down % = 35% ( 11th )
4th Down % = 41% ( 14th )
Pen Yds = 867 ( 18th )
Sacks = 42 ( 7th )

2012
Offense
PPG = 24.8 (11th) +1 PPG
YPG = 361.8 ( 11th) +50.9 YPG
Rushing yds = 155.7 ( 4th ) +27.9 YDS
Rushing AVG = 5.1 ( 3rd ) +1 YD PER RUSH!
Passing yds = 206.1 ( 23rd ) +23 YPG
Passing AVG = 8.1 ( 2nd ) +1 YD PER PASS!
3rd Down % = 35% ( 25th ) +6%
4th Down % = 67% ( 5th ) +3%
Pen Yds = 960 ( 28th ) -54 YDS
TOP = 31:46 ( 6th ) -00:22

Defense
PPG = 17.1 ( 2nd ) +2.8 PPG more
YPG = 294.4 ( 3rd ) -13.8 YPG less
Rushing yds = 94.2 ( 4th ) +17 YPG more
Rushing AVG = 3.7 ( 4th ) +0.2 YD more
Passing yds = 200.2 ( 4th ) -30.7 YPG less
Passing AVG = 6.1 ( 2nd ) -0.8 YD less
3rd Down % = 33% ( 3rd ) -2% better on 3rd
4th Down % = 56% ( 23rd ) +15 % worse on 4th
Pen Yds = 758 ( 8th ) -109 less yards
Sacks = 38 ( 11th ) -4 sacks


DEFENSE
Our run D in 2011 was historically good, no way we could keep that up. We did give up more yards in 2012, but that's because teams ran more on us. We still only gave up +.2 per rush finishing top 5 in the league. The Rush D took a small step back, but the passing D took a big step forward in 2012. We can't say it was because of a better pass rush since we finished the year with 4 less sacks. I think those numbers are a little skewed though since our pass rush disappeared at the end of the year. If Aldon and Justin were healthy, we would have finished with the same amount of sacks. I remember before the year when everyone said how hard our schedule was with the QBs we needed to face....@ Rogers, Stafford, Eli, @ Brees, Cutler, @ Brady. I think we made up for those games with Jets, Bills, Cards x2, Rams x2....so lets call it even. We did give up a couple more points, but less yards and our 3rd down D did improve slightly. Overall our D was just as good as the year before, even though it did not seem that way.

OFFENSE
We did improve from a yards and points perspective, but the biggest thing that stands out was the +1 yards per rush and +1 yards per pass, THATS HUGE!. We had many more explosive plays in 2012 and we were damn efficient doing it, finishing 3rd in rush average and 2nd in pass average. So why didn't we finish in the top 10 in yards then? Easy, we took the most time per play than any team in the league. We finished 30th in number of plays. Much of this has to do with Kap's audibles at the line of scrimmage. I think we will see a better tempo this year and save my vocal cords from yelling 'SNAP THE F*CKIN BALL!!" at my TV. The total rushing improved as well as the pass, thanks to Kap of course.


2013
Our RUN D will be challenged now that we have new faces on the D line. As long as Ian and Dorsey hold up, I do not see a big drop off. Also, no matter if Dahl or Reid are in, teams are going to attack the back 3rd more this year. The way to combat that is to improve our pass rush. We need to finish with 40+ sacks this year to help the back end.

Our O needs to take the next step. I fully expect us to finish in the top 10 in rushing again, but now it's time for the passing game to improve. Going from 29th to 23rd was good, but we need this passing game to finish in the top half of the league this year. I would have said top 10, but with Crabs out, we will need to take more calculate shots down the field. If Kap tries to force the ball more and gets picked off, plus if he continues to have issues with the center exchange, that +9 TO Diff will shrink, if it goes into the - direction, we could be in for a step back this year.

If you read this far, congrats! Now what do you guys think we need to improve on this year to make it back to the SB?
[ Edited by DRUSTOPO on Jun 4, 2013 at 7:34 PM ]
This is great stuff man! +1 yd/rush and +1 yd/pass is HUGE
Nice post! Actually, we averaged about 29 points a game (up 5 points) the past 10 games including the post seaaon. Part of that was b/c we were in shoot-outs...Saints, Pats, Green Bay, Falcons, Ravens, etc. Part of that was b/c we "can." We went from a NL SF Giants team (great pitching, defense and timely hitting) to more of a St. Louis Cardinals team. We used to slowly bleed teams to death. Now we have the ability to stab them quickly. You can win championships with both styles! This new "style" of offense points-wise will put us in the top 5. On the flip side, with a more dynamic offense that can score quickly, it could mean our defense will take a step back.

So ideally, we need to balance it out. I'd love to see your stats on the defense the final 10 games (week 11 through the Superbowl) and then a 16 game projection. With more depth and an added focus on coverage and QB pressures, take whatever that average is and be a little better. That should be our expectations for both offense and defense.

I'd focus on the one stat that matters...points scored and points allowed. And the other which is the TO ratio. Fundamentally and schematically, we did a lot of things different in the secondary last year and our TO's went way down.

Ironically, the key to both offense and defense is the ability to start hot and get up on teams...then we can turn to a more pressure defense and ball-control offense in the second halves of games.
[ Edited by NCommand on Jun 4, 2013 at 11:03 AM ]
Originally posted by NCommand:
Nice post! Actually, we averaged about 29 points a game (up 5 points) the past 10 games including the post seaaon. Part of that was b/c we were in shoot-outs...Saints, Pats, Green Bay, Falcons, Ravens, etc. Part of that was b/c we "can." We went from a NL SF Giants team (great pitching, defense and timely hitting) to more of a St. Louis Cardinals team. We used to slowly bleed teams to death. Now we have the ability to stab them quickly. You can win championships with both styles! This new "style" of offense points-wise will put us in the top 5. On the flip side, with a more dynamic offense that can score quickly, it could mean our defense will take a step back.

So ideally, we need to balance it out. I'd love to see your stats on the defense the final 10 games (week 11 through the Superbowl) and then a 16 game projection. With more depth and an added focus on coverage and QB pressures, take whatever that average is and be a little better. That should be our expectations for both offense and defense.

I'd focus on the one stat that matters...points scored and points allowed. And the other which is the TO ratio. Fundamentally and schematically, we did a lot of things different in the secondary last year and our TO's went way down.

Ironically, the key to both offense and defense is the ability to start hot and get up on teams...then we can turn to a more pressure defense and ball-control offense in the second halves of games.

Agreed, Id love to see that breakdown. Will be interesting to look at the numbers 12 months from now to see how they have progressed. Going into year 3 with the QB of the future locked in, the players and the playbook should be functioning at full force. All those years of learning a different system each offseason is GONE GONE GONE!!!! Being able to build on the previous year is such a huge advantage.
Originally posted by DRUSTOPO:
Agreed, Id love to see that breakdown. Will be interesting to look at the numbers 12 months from now to see how they have progressed. Going into year 3 with the QB of the future locked in, the players and the playbook should be functioning at full force. All those years of learning a different system each offseason is GONE GONE GONE!!!! Being able to build on the previous year is such a huge advantage.

Absolutely! I think the shift in offensive styles starting week 11 on affected the defense just as much as the rise in points per game...meaning I think both the offense and defensive final numbers are off. I think our offense has the potential to be top 5 next year for PF and our defense will naturally decline d/t spending more time on the field, how teams have to attack us, playing catch-up, continual evolution of the passing game and teams we face, etc. So I'm expecting the defense to be closer to the bottom part of the top 10 in PA....around 10. ST is where I see a big difference and helping us to become a more complete team.

If we can maintain top 5 in both while being better on ST with a better TO ration, look out!
[ Edited by NCommand on Jun 4, 2013 at 11:20 AM ]
Our offense will improve if the following issues are successfully addressed:
1. Kap has to improve on his touch passes and his awareness of his second and third options, as well as time management and adjustments at the line.
2. Kap has to improve his WR relationships. Boldin has now replaced Crabtree, so Kap needs at least one other WR option to balance out the options.
3. Kap needs to be able to develop a relationship with V. Davis to keep pressure off of Boldin and keep the defense honest.
4. Running game needs to be consistent and attacking. The running game also needs to used to develop screens and be a viable passing option for Kap.
5. McDonald needs to become an option to replace Delanie Walker. Consistent hands would be really really helpful.
6. Oline needs to continue to develop. Will be happy to see Looney, and or Kilgore as consistent backups and one of them be a realistic option for Goodwin.
7. Roman needs to develop a more consistent and more flexible game plan. He seems to have difficulty with the passing game and seems to feel more secure with the running game.
8. The defense would help out the offense by more consistent turnovers.
9. The special teams needs to give the offense better field position and Dawson needs to give us more consistent points when he is on the field.
How to improve...

Offense: Stop being cute. Stop with all the trickeration. We have the best o-line, start acting like it and plow people in the face

Defense: More diversity! More looks, more pre-snap movement. Oh, and fire Fangio!!!
1. Red Zone TD rate.
2. Special Teams coverage teams.
3. Improve pass coverage from FS/SS.
Great Post! This may be an obvious question, but do our 2012 rush yards/attempt include Kap's rushes? If so, that number might be inflated a bit?
[ Edited by mattster03 on Jun 4, 2013 at 12:53 PM ]
Easy. Offense needs to cleanup on penalty yards and 3rd down conv.
Originally posted by Ninefan56:
Our offense will improve if the following issues are successfully addressed:
1. Kap has to improve on his touch passes and his awareness of his second and third options, as well as time management and adjustments at the line.
2. Kap has to improve his WR relationships. Boldin has now replaced Crabtree, so Kap needs at least one other WR option to balance out the options.
3. Kap needs to be able to develop a relationship with V. Davis to keep pressure off of Boldin and keep the defense honest.
4. Running game needs to be consistent and attacking. The running game also needs to used to develop screens and be a viable passing option for Kap.
5. McDonald needs to become an option to replace Delanie Walker. Consistent hands would be really really helpful.
6. Oline needs to continue to develop. Will be happy to see Looney, and or Kilgore as consistent backups and one of them be a realistic option for Goodwin.
7. Roman needs to develop a more consistent and more flexible game plan. He seems to have difficulty with the passing game and seems to feel more secure with the running game.
8. The defense would help out the offense by more consistent turnovers.
9. The special teams needs to give the offense better field position and Dawson needs to give us more consistent points when he is on the field.

Pretty Spot on brotha. Only thing i have to say is that im on the fence with number 7. Lets take the SB for example. Kaep and Co. helped lead us back and it seemed like the plays that they were calling were working. Actually very good at how we were able to come back. Even on the last round of series. I used to get soo pissed at Roman, not even being able to watch those final four downs. But now after soo much time, being able to break the plays down. We actually could of scored on two, had the right read been done, the Wr moved here instead of there, or Kaep went here instead of there, etc.

**I even said it at the end of the SB. That Harbs wanted to put the ball in Kaeps hands, and wasnt gonna have it any other way. Cuz if he would of scored, could u imagine the headlines.....Makes QB change and a genius for winning the SB when some thought he was nuts... or some headline like that......***

One thing i have realized with our offense. Harb's Roman, and co. seem very set in their ways. I mean there were soo many games all year, were at times it seemed like we were getting back too, "Oh come on, not that play again.", or "come on, just because u change the look, we all know who the ball is going too".
Not saying it's a weakness, because at times, the othere team does break. And didnt one time during the season when they questioned Roman's playcalling, he said it was more on the execution, not the plays being called.
So thats why i say im on the fence with 7. At times it seemed they (Roman and Co.) refused to bend or break. And on the other token, when it seemed the correct plays were called, the players didnt execute
[ Edited by Jersey9er on Jun 4, 2013 at 1:07 PM ]
We need to improve in the "win the Super Bowl" stat...
Best thread in a while, and this is an example of what this board is supposed to be! Hard data and reasonable speculation about how we can improve and where we might slide a bit. Bravo - and I agree with everything you said. This draft class will help immediately and in the future, but no reason why we shouldn't take another step forward this year, with really only Gore, J Smith, and Goodwin as potential drop-offs due to age. But with the work ethic and the guys we have behind all 3 of these guys, we are going to be awesome even if these guys do lose a little ability. Stay healthy and keep the turnovers down and we will become the first team in 40 years to win the SB the year after losing it. Let's go!