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Will 2014 be Crabtree's last season as a Niner?

Will 2014 be Crabtree's last season as a Niner?

i sincerely think he is gone.. thats why we have been stock piling WRs so we can afford it when he leaves..
Originally posted by Fricker:
i sincerely think he is gone.. thats why we have been stock piling WRs so we can afford it when he leaves..

True

Or MM and KW injuries are severe and they may not be back in time.
[ Edited by Young2Rice on May 19, 2013 at 1:26 PM ]
Originally posted by Young2Rice:
True

Or MM and KW injuries are severe and they may not be back in time.

I really hope that's the case. We are pretty stacked on offense but Crab has it. If he left I'd be upset.
Originally posted by Rsrkshn:
Did you see GNielsen's comment a few posts up? He's right. A franchise tag makes the cost of a receiver unreasonably high.

If he doesn't want to accept what the Niners offer (presuming they want to keep him), just tender him as a first rounder (see what the Giants did with Cruz). If the team doesn't want to pay what another team offers him, the Niners walk away with their first rounder. Not bad.

Anyway, I'm not sure that any team will be willing to pay ridiculous money for him. Consider: He's not particularly fast. He's had one 1000 yd season to date. If he wasn't a Niner, a lot of posters would be less effusive with their praise.


He's still got 2 full years before he's a free agent. He puts up 2 more 1,100 8 touchdown seasons and he's easily going get that 45 to 50 million contract.

Personally I wouldn't sweat it. You got to be like the Packers on this one. Keep adding weapons thru the draft and if you can't reach a deal let him walk.
[ Edited by tjd808185 on May 19, 2013 at 1:42 PM ]
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Originally posted by Fricker:
i sincerely think he is gone.. thats why we have been stock piling WRs so we can afford it when he leaves..

I think he's probably gone, but the FO stockpiling WR's probably has a lot more to do with the fact that we've gone into the last 2 postseasons with basically no one other than Crabtree at the position. If Kaepernick and Davis hadn't suddenly clicked in the playoffs we would've been screwed because there was no other decent receiver.
i think he's gone.
I think we'll franchise tag him in 2014. Bottom line he's going to be a Niner for a while.
Again, nobody franchises receivers anymore because the average of the top five receiver salaries is way too high. Franchise tag is not going to happen for Crabtree. If they were unwilling to use it for Safety, they're damn well not going to do it for receiver. And by the time they would consider that, it will be much worse. Calvin Johnson and Percy Harvin will both be making in the $12 mil range after next season. So, the average of the top five will probably be in the $11 million range. Too expensive.
Originally posted by mayo49:
I think we lose him to Dallas. He's always wanted to play and is from there.

This is what everyone keeps saying, but after grossly overpaying Romo and having more of their own guys they're sure to overpay soon, who's to say Dallas would even have the cap space to sign him?
Originally posted by GNielsen:
Again, nobody franchises receivers anymore because the average of the top five receiver salaries is way too high. Franchise tag is not going to happen for Crabtree. If they were unwilling to use it for Safety, they're damn well not going to do it for receiver. And by the time they would consider that, it will be much worse. Calvin Johnson and Percy Harvin will both be making in the $12 mil range after next season. So, the average of the top five will probably be in the $11 million range. Too expensive.

I'm going to disagree with you slightly there. Recent WRs who have received the franchise tag include: DeSean Jackson, Dwayne Bowe and Wes Welker. It's only this past season where the franchise tag was only used by eight clubs.

You're right about the tag number being in the $11M range, it will likely go up as well by the time that Crabtree becomes a FA.
Originally posted by 9erfanAUS:
Originally posted by GNielsen:
Again, nobody franchises receivers anymore because the average of the top five receiver salaries is way too high. Franchise tag is not going to happen for Crabtree. If they were unwilling to use it for Safety, they're damn well not going to do it for receiver. And by the time they would consider that, it will be much worse. Calvin Johnson and Percy Harvin will both be making in the $12 mil range after next season. So, the average of the top five will probably be in the $11 million range. Too expensive.

I'm going to disagree with you slightly there. Recent WRs who have received the franchise tag include: DeSean Jackson, Dwayne Bowe and Wes Welker. It's only this past season where the franchise tag was only used by eight clubs.

You're right about the tag number being in the $11M range, it will likely go up as well by the time that Crabtree becomes a FA.
He's also wrong on the safety part. We did franchise a safety, we just didn't franchise him a consecutive year.

The Cap will also be going up in 2014. 11M for a one year likely wouldn't hurt us cap wise.
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Justin Smith may retire after 2013 (especially if the 49ers win the Super Bowl) so that may free up $6M
(The ease of this transition will depend upon the development of Tank Carradine)

Depending on the development of Trent Robinson/Eric Reid, Donte Whitner may be released after 2013.
That frees up $3 Million.
(Not sold on Robinson so this may be an issue. But Plan B would be to ask Whitner to restructure offering him more money in 2015)

Depending on the development of Corey Lemonier/Darius Fleming, Ahmad Brooks AND Parys Haralson may be released/restructured freeing up approx $4M
(I liked Lemonier coming out of college and I think he is capable of taking significant reps away from Brooks by mid-season. I also like Darius Fleming and his potential to replace Parys Haralson)

Depending on the development of Joe Looney/Daniel Kilgore, Goodwin may be released. This frees $5M
(I'm high on Joe Looney)

Depending on the development of Chris Culliver and the production of Nnamdi Asomugha, Carlos Rogers may be let go.
That's $4Mill
(I like Cully, and I like Nnamdi so we'll just have to wait and see what happens but I like them as a tandem for the 49ers for the next 2-3 years at least, shifting Brown to nickel and letting us develop a draft pick from the 2014 class)

And if AJ and QP are productive, and Rio bounces back, we won't need to bring back Anquan Boldin or Kyle Williams.
(Something tells me AJ is going to make alot of us happy around here and QP could be the next Reggie Wayne.)

That's a potential $12-20 Million dollars (excluding profit) that the team can spread across re-signing Kaepernick, Iupati, Crabtree and Alex Boone or Aldon Smith.
Originally posted by tjd808185:
Originally posted by Rsrkshn:
Did you see GNielsen's comment a few posts up? He's right. A franchise tag makes the cost of a receiver unreasonably high.

If he doesn't want to accept what the Niners offer (presuming they want to keep him), just tender him as a first rounder (see what the Giants did with Cruz). If the team doesn't want to pay what another team offers him, the Niners walk away with their first rounder. Not bad.

Anyway, I'm not sure that any team will be willing to pay ridiculous money for him. Consider: He's not particularly fast. He's had one 1000 yd season to date. If he wasn't a Niner, a lot of posters would be less effusive with their praise.


He's still got 2 full years before he's a free agent. He puts up 2 more 1,100 8 touchdown seasons and he's easily going get that 45 to 50 million contract.

Personally I wouldn't sweat it. You got to be like the Packers on this one. Keep adding weapons thru the draft and if you can't reach a deal let him walk.


$45/$50 million over what period? 5 years? Two years down the road that may not be too exhorbitant a price to pay for a #1 and the Niners may be players at that price. Crabtree, while excellent, is not an elite, top-five caliber receiver. He probably thinks that he is and I don't blame him for having that confidence, but realistically . . . no, he isn't. So if he looks for that elite paycheck, it'll be difficult for the Niners to accommodate him. There always is a team out there that will overpay for a player, so losing Crabtree is easily foreseeable.

Irrespective, I do concur with your strategy: Follow the Packers model.

IMO there are only two postions one should unhesitating spring for the "elite" cash, if you have the player fitting the bill: QB, obviously, and pass rusher (but only a very special one). That's it. For all other positions, the incremental upgrade between excellent and elite doesn't make that great a difference.

However, keeping developmental players in the pipeline is also key to effectively keeping the ball rolling.
Originally posted by Hopper:
He's also wrong on the safety part. We did franchise a safety, we just didn't franchise him a consecutive year.

The Cap will also be going up in 2014. 11M for a one year likely wouldn't hurt us cap wise.

I was, of course, talking about last year. They could have easily franchised Goldson again, but they didn't want to pay that kind of money for him. This has been written about a lot - Baalke valuates each position and they have a range in which they'll stay to maintain that position. If a player won't play in that range, they try to re-boot through the draft or a good deal in free agency. And, I don't think they want to pay about $11 million for a possession receiver either because a. they've got a few they're developing from the draft and b. it's not that hard to find a possession receiver in free agency.

Plus, you have to remember that Welker and Jackson were franchised at about $9.4-9.5 million. The price has gone up precipitously mainly because of the Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Percy Harvin contracts. Johnson and Fitzgerald will be at about $16 mil and Harvin will be at about $13 mil. Wallace is at about $12. In fact, a quick estimate of the average for the top five when they would franchise Crabtree would be at about $13.7 million. Does anyone around here seriously think that Harbaalke plan to spend $13.7 million on Crabtree? I don't think so. That's Kaepernick money.
Originally posted by T-9ers:
Yes, im serious. Not that I want to lose Brooks, he's a heckuva player, but it would make the most sense. You can only have so much salary cap space tied into each position and we have a lot of money into our linebackers, especially if we resign Aldon longterm. With PW, Bowman, Aldon, and Brooks will will have the most money into linebackers out of any team in the league. I'm sure we drafted this Lemonier kid for a reason. He looks like the possible Brooks replacement. Actually I got the idea from one of the articles I read on this site about how the modern NFL GM's have to spread money around.

Yep, GRABTREE. My boy made that up in honor of Crab's great hands.

You notice how some teams target Donte Whitner because he is considered the weak link in our secondary? You can't do that with our linebackers. There is no one you can run at. No one that isn't capable of making big plays. All four of our starting linebackers are all legit players. Although we have a lot of money tied into the position, they earn every penny of it. Using this logic, the Steel Curtain would've been broken up because you can't spend all that money on just defensive lineman. As long as those guys are playing at an All-Pro level, they will remain together.
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