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GUESS THE 53!!

From 90 to 53 (all 90 noted): some rationale at the end...

Offense: (25)
QB (3): Colin Kaepernick, Scott Tolzien and B.J. Daniels - think Tolzien is similar to Colt McCoy but much more experienced in our offense. B.J. is the perfect Russell Wilson-clone to practice against and can play ST.
RB (3): Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James; Marcus Lattimore (PUP) - Anthony Dixon, Jewel Hampton and D.J. Harper are gone. Marcus is red-shirted all year long.
FB (2): Bruce Miller and Alex Debniak - Jason Schepler is gone. Alex is the surprise win here.
WR (5): Michael Crabtree, Anquan Boldin, A.J. Jenkins, Quinton Patton and Ricardo Lockette; Mario Manningham (PUP) - Kyle Williams, Marlon Moore, Chad Hall, Joe Hastings, Chuck Jacobs all gone. Manningham is brought along slowly and Williams is cut d/t Jenkins/Patton and others excelling in the slot and on KR's.
TE (3): Vernon Davis, Vance McDonald and MarQueis Gray (H-back) - Cameron Morrah and Garrett Celek are gone.
OT (4): Joe Staley, Anthony Davis, Adam Snyder and Al Netter; Luke Marquardt (PUP) - Carter Bykowski and Kenny Wiggins are gone. Luke is brought along slowly (typical Niner-theme) but if healthy, could push Netter off the 53.
OG (3): Mike Iupati, Alex Boone and Daniel Kilgore - Wayne Tribue and Patrick Omameh are gone. Boone, Snyder, Kilgore and Looney can all play multiple positions.
C (2): Jonathan Goodwin and Joe Looney - Sherman Carter is gone. I would not be surprised to see Looney beat out Goodwin (late cut) with Kilgore backing him up; or Goodwin restructures to stay (ideal depth).

Defense: (25)
DE (4): Justin Smith, Ray McDonald, Quinton Dial and Lawrence Okoye; Tank Carradine (PUP) - Demarcus Dobbs, Will Tukuafu and Tony Jerod-Eddie are gone. Tank is brought along slowly as well. They may keep Dobbs over Divens but we use the NT/DE positions as interchangeable a lot. So who adds more immediate value?
NT (3): Glenn Dorsey, Ian Williams and Lamar Divens (6'3" 340) - Mike Purcell is gone and Divens is used against the power running teams and in goal line and short yardage situations.
OLB (4): Aldon Smith, Ahmad Brooks, Corey Lemonier and Cam Johnson - Parys Haralson and Darius Fleming are gone. Cam shows he can seal the edge well AND pass rush making Haralson expendable.
ILB (4): Patrick Willis, NaVorro Bowman, Dan Skuta and Nick Moody - Michael Wilhoite and Nathan Stupar are gone.
CB (5): Tarell Brown, Nnamdi Asomugha, Chris Culliver, Carlos Rogers and Marcus Cooper - Tramaine Brock, Perrish Cox, Lowell Rose and Darryl Morris are gone. Rogers restructures his contract after losing out to Nnamdi and Rose and Morris are stashed on the PS. Baalke wants bigger now...he got it in CB/depth and with Reid.
S (5): Donte Whitner, Eric Reid, Craig Dahl, C.J. Spillman and Trenton Robinson - Darcel McBath and Michael Thomas are gone.

Special Teams: (3)
PK: Phil Dawson
P: Andy Lee - Anthony Santella is gone
LS: Kevin McDermott - Brian Jennings is gone

Weaknesses/Miscellaneous: We still have not solved the SS issue with Whitner starting again (gave up 14 TD's last year alone) and I'm not sure if we have a quality slot CB matchup against specialists such as Harvin/Austin. NT is still a question as well but it appears we'll use more 4-man DL with plenty of rotation for all of the front 7. Scheme is the Theme this year. On offense, we should have even more weapons now with even more experience. Special Teams should be MUCH better from the PK to all the specialty athletes we have who can provide better coverage. Our PS will be used to develop some real gems as well. I have some surprises in my 53 but many will have speciality roles and can double on ST.

Responses:
Tolzien and Daniels both make it? - Tolzien IS our experienced veteran (McCoy); he's just more experienced than McCoy in OUR (complex) offense and no pre-season is going to be enough to unseat Tolzien. THe coaching staff, IMHO, feels very comfortable with Tolzien should CK ever go down. And B.J. is another hand-picked QB by Harbaugh who adds in several other areas as well.
Dixon cut? - Dixon adds next to nothing in production but adds a ton in character and cheerleading/positivity. He's a good ST player. He barely made the team last year and this year he'll be gone.
2 FB's!?!?!?!?! - FB is an under-appreciated position and we've been "lucky" Miller has been healthy. But the coaching staff brought in TWO FB's this year b/c they know they need depth there just in case. With a full off season, I expect Roman will install a few more FB plays (like the long TD Miller had his rookie season). Both need to contribute on ST's though and be able to line up out of the Q. ANd Tukuafu is done here so if Miller does go down, who's his backup for Gore?
Kyle Williams cut? - This one can go any way and about 30 different directions. But I think we end up finding that James and others like AJ or Patton or others show more potential on returning kicks. Both AJ and Patton probably have more upside than Williams (and are healthier), this could be a surprise here. Then the question is, if you DON'T cut him, who do you cut between AJ and Patton? Lockette? Lockette is the most viable like-option behind our bigger WR's in Crabtree and Boldin. Period.
Gray over Morrah and Celek? - Gray has loads of talent and is already being moved all over the place. This dude is becoming the old H-back that Delanie Walker became and will be brought along slowly the same way. With Roman's Q formations, this guys is going to create WAY more mismatches than Morrah/Celek could ever bring...and he can be on the field at the same time VD and McDonald are! And really, what does Morrah/Celek really bring to our offense?
Okoye makes the 53 man? - Absolutely! The 47th-53rd position last year was reserved for a truck load of developmental players and many of them were at more technical positions such as RG, C, WR, etc. We're talking about a backup RDE behind Justin Smith and Tank Carradine. He's protected on the 53 and is there for insurance in case Tank needs more time as well. He'll be brought along slowly.
Dobbs and Tufuaku cut? - Dobbs played great with Aldon and if he is fully healthy he could really push a guy off or down the roster but he is going to have to play out of his mind. Tukuafu has no shot at all IMHO.
Haralson cut? - One thing the coaching staff has demonstrated is that they don't like one-dimensional players. In fact, name one currently on the roster. The last one is Haralson. He adds ZERO in pass rush and coverage and should Aldon go down, that is a MONSTER drop off in pass rush. If either Cam or Fleming demonstrate ANY kind of pass rush ability while also being above average in run defense, sealing the edge and show any additional skills in drop-back coverage, Haralson is gone. This team needs an OLB who is well-rounded and can step in for a starter. Also, with Haralson in, it signals he's in there for run defense only...it eliminates the unpredictability of the 3-4 pass rush.
Brock cut? - This is one I need more time to think about but I've been paying attention to Baalke and his obvious push for bigger, taller, stronger, faster, CB's who can play physical and in press (Cooper). Brock is an excellent ST. He's not a bad DB either. We signed him early for insurance to a LT deal. One option would be to keep both and push someone else off the roster. We probably should keep 6 CB's but then again, I have us carrying 5 S's and C.J. Spillman and Trenton Robinson may be able to play multiple positions.
[ Edited by NCommand on May 16, 2013 at 1:55 PM ]
NCommand:

Do you know if McCoy has any guaranteed $$ in his contract? He was essentially worth a 7th pick, so not huge value, but he may have some guarantees in his contract that would preclude us from cutting him. IDK

Also, with Haralson reducing his contract, it seems like he'd make the team as a valuable backup for cheap, no?
[ Edited by NinerBuff on May 16, 2013 at 12:51 PM ]
  • buck
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Originally posted by NinerBuff:
NCommand:

Do you know if McCoy has any guaranteed $$ in his contract? He was essentially worth a 7th pick, so not huge value, but he may have some guarantees in his contract that would preclude us from cutting him. IDK

Also, with Haralson reducing his contract, it seems like he'd make the team as a valuable backup for cheap, no?

Colt McCoy is on his original contract--a four-year, $4.96 million contract with $1.07 million guaranteed.
I think that he has received his guaranteed money, but I am not sure.
This year he makes $1.5 million. He will be a free agent in 2014.

Scott Tolzien signed a three-year, $1.408 million contract with a $12,500 signing bonus.
This year he will make $555,000. He will be a restricted free agent in 2014.

In my estimation, McCoy will not be given the job.
Colt McCoy and Scott Tolzien will be in a battle to win the job as the back-up quarterback.

I would not assume that McCoy wins that battle.


Originally posted by NinerBuff:
NCommand:

Do you know if McCoy has any guaranteed $$ in his contract? He was essentially worth a 7th pick, so not huge value, but he may have some guarantees in his contract that would preclude us from cutting him. IDK

Also, with Haralson reducing his contract, it seems like he'd make the team as a valuable backup for cheap, no?

Buck covered it above (thanks buck!). And like he said, not sure why most are anointing McCoy as the automatic #2. Really? I'm not even sure what skill set he posses that is above Tolzien and then you add in the fact that this is a VERY complex offense, I highly doubt he beats out Tolzien as the #2. He may earn the #3 but like I said above, don't be surprised if Harbaugh uses B.J. as the #3 b/c he may be able to add to the ST as well; another "swiss army knife."

As to Haralson, people are assuming he and Manningham will be with us "because" they took pay cuts. The reality is they are taking pay cuts b/c they were injured and/or were making more than what is expected of them (today) production-wise and possibly in the (near) future. Haralson is a well-documented one-trick pony and he had an injury to the only strength of his game (run defense). If players such as AJ, Patton, Cam, Lockette or Fleming demonstrate more upside and immediate production and at cheaper prices, the team may go that route instead and cut them. I've been saying all along I think we end up PUPing Manningham anyway.
[ Edited by NCommand on May 16, 2013 at 1:36 PM ]
Originally posted by NickSh49:
Can guarantee you Kyle Williams will be on the roster this year.

He's not going anywhere.

This this this!

Those and these too.
Thanks buck & NCommand
Originally posted by SFL49ER:
Originally posted by NickSh49:
Can guarantee you Kyle Williams will be on the roster this year.

He's not going anywhere.

This this this!

Those and these too.

Oh yeah? If we keep 6? Who gets pushed off? How many 3+ WR formations are we expecting with Davis and McDonald on the field? And if Williams is on, who gets pushed off...AJ? Patton? Lockette? Manningham? He could be added and Manningham cut. Or added until Manningham comes off PUP?

It's not as straight-forward as we think...which is a good thing!

WR's (backup)
Michael Crabtree (Mario Manningham - PUP)
Anquan Boldin (Ricardo Lockette)
A.J. Jenkins (Quinton Patton)
Kyle Williams - ?
Marlon Moore - Gone unless he flashes greatness as a returner AND as a consistent deep threat.
Chad Hall - Gone
Joe Hastings - Gone
Chuck Jacobs - Gone
[ Edited by NCommand on May 16, 2013 at 2:19 PM ]
Parys Haralson cut
Goodwin cut
Kyle Williams cut
Colt McCoy cut

Tolzien signs a 4 year extension at 1 million a year. Giving the Niners a back up that is low in $$$ because CK7 is gonna cost a lot in the future. BJ Daniels makes the team as a slash type player, PR, qb, rb.

Fleming beats out Haralson.

Kilgore/Looney make Goodwins 3.7 million dollar salary go by by.

Kyle Williams cut

Dixon cut
Originally posted by 9erred:
Parys Haralson cut
Goodwin cut
Kyle Williams cut
Colt McCoy cut

Tolzien signs a 4 year extension at 1 million a year. Giving the Niners a back up that is low in $$$ because CK7 is gonna cost a lot in the future. BJ Daniels makes the team as a slash type player, PR, qb, rb.

Fleming beats out Haralson.

Kilgore/Looney make Goodwins 3.7 million dollar salary go by by.

Kyle Williams cut

Dixon cut

Wow, I'm not the only one who see some surprise cuts! Nice!

And yes, Goodwin I have predicted for a while not...very viable late cut. I think we hold all the leverage as well if Looney/Kilgore show significant progress. He could take a pay cut to back up for us (most ideal).

And yes, I could EASILY see Fleming be the one over Cam too. I can't wait to see these two play!
[ Edited by NCommand on May 16, 2013 at 2:24 PM ]
Member Milestone: This is post number 400 for DRUSTOPO.
Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by NinerBuff:
NCommand:

Do you know if McCoy has any guaranteed $$ in his contract? He was essentially worth a 7th pick, so not huge value, but he may have some guarantees in his contract that would preclude us from cutting him. IDK

Also, with Haralson reducing his contract, it seems like he'd make the team as a valuable backup for cheap, no?

Buck covered it above (thanks buck!). And like he said, not sure why most are anointing McCoy as the automatic #2. Really? I'm not even sure what skill set he posses that is above Tolzien and then you add in the fact that this is a VERY complex offense, I highly doubt he beats out Tolzien as the #2. He may earn the #3 but like I said above, don't be surprised if Harbaugh uses B.J. as the #3 b/c he may be able to add to the ST as well; another "swiss army knife."

As to Haralson, people are assuming he and Manningham will be with us "because" they took pay cuts. The reality is they are taking pay cuts b/c they were injured and/or were making more than what is expected of them (today) production-wise and possibly in the (near) future. Haralson is a well-documented one-trick pony and he had an injury to the only strength of his game (run defense). If players such as AJ, Patton, Cam, Lockette or Fleming demonstrate more upside and immediate production and at cheaper prices, the team may go that route instead and cut them. I've been saying all along I think we end up PUPing Manningham anyway.

Great breakdown of the 53 NCommand. I hope you are right and Cam / Fleming showing us something this summer. I still think Haralson's cheap price, plus experience, plus run stopping ability make him a decent bet to make the team as the #3 OLB. Having a rookie Lemonier, Fleming ( basically a rookie due to injury ) and/or Cam ( late round pick sophmore who didn't see the field ) as the backups is a risky proposition for a SB team. Parys did record 8, 5 and 4 sacks the last three years he was a starter, so he can bring some pressure, just nothing significant.

All in all, I think it's a good situation to be in. We have a proven vet who can set the edge in the 3-4 and play both OLB spots as a worst case scenario. Its up to Cam and Darius to step up and make their mark.
Originally posted by DRUSTOPO:
Great breakdown of the 53 NCommand. I hope you are right and Cam / Fleming showing us something this summer. I still think Haralson's cheap price, plus experience, plus run stopping ability make him a decent bet to make the team as the #3 OLB. Having a rookie Lemonier, Fleming ( basically a rookie due to injury ) and/or Cam ( late round pick sophmore who didn't see the field ) as the backups is a risky proposition for a SB team. Parys did record 8, 5 and 4 sacks the last three years he was a starter, so he can bring some pressure, just nothing significant.

All in all, I think it's a good situation to be in. We have a proven vet who can set the edge in the 3-4 and play both OLB spots as a worst case scenario. Its up to Cam and Darius to step up and make their mark.

Me too...for the team!

With an entire year to train with no pressure, I'm sure both Fleming/Johnson are FIRED up and should be able to hit the ground running (rather than being wide-eyed rookies just trying to learn the playbook; being tentative). I'm really excited to see these two compete with Haralson. So to your point, these aren't rookies per se and with this whole off season in our system as well, "if" they show a well-rounded skill set, they certainly have the license to unseat Haralson (who isn't a bad player by any means either).

And another thing that needs to be considered when looking at cuts is our GM. Baalke really wants to prove he was right about these guys...AJ, Fleming, Johnson, Looney and a host of others. They will be given every chance to earn a starting or primary backup spot....THIS pre season. But they must show the right attitude and work ethic or he won't hesitate to admit he was wrong and cut their arses. LOL
Originally posted by NCommand:
Me too...for the team!

With an entire year to train with no pressure, I'm sure both Fleming/Johnson are FIRED up and should be able to hit the ground running (rather than being wide-eyed rookies just trying to learn the playbook; being tentative). I'm really excited to see these two compete with Haralson. So to your point, these aren't rookies per se and with this whole off season in our system as well, "if" they show a well-rounded skill set, they certainly have the license to unseat Haralson (who isn't a bad player by any means either).

And another thing that needs to be considered when looking at cuts is our GM. Baalke really wants to prove he was right about these guys...AJ, Fleming, Johnson, Looney and a host of others. They will be given every chance to earn a starting or primary backup spot....THIS pre season. But they must show the right attitude and work ethic or he won't hesitate to admit he was wrong and cut their arses. LOL



Haha! Love the "have the license to...", Oh that Jimbo, he's gotten into ALL our heads
  • buck
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The competition for back up outside linebacker is going to another major battle.

I see three locks: Aldon Smith, Ahmad Brooks, and Corey Lemonier.
I have Lemonier slotted as the back-up for Aldon Smith.

That leaves Parys Haralson, Cam Johnson, and Darius Fleming fighting to back up Ahmad Brooks.

My hunch is that Johnson or Flemming will have to beat Haralson, and beat him significantly, to win the spot behind Brooks.

Haralson will be a free agent, so the team has to look to the future, but the immediate goal is to get another shot at the championship.
Playing behind Brooks, Haralson will not have to be a sack master to be effective. He is a seasoned vet with good run stopping skills.

Johnson and Fleming might earn roster spots, but they face a difficult challenge.

Cam Johnson will have to give Haralson a very good run for his money to make the squad, but he could do it.
Much will depend on his special teams play.

Fleming's best chance to make the 53-man roster might be to move inside.
I would feel good with Fleming (6-2 255) and Dan Skuta (6-2 250) as back-up inside linebackers.

Newcomer, Nick Moody can go on the PS or make the roster as a gunner on special teams.
.
But has Haralson ever produced as a strong side LB? I always got the impression that he played as a -rather ineffective- pass rusher.

I see his situation exactly the opposite way: he will have to really beat Lemonier in TC to make the 46; if he's not good enough to dress on game days there's no point in keeping him and his salary.
  • buck
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In six years, Haralson has had 21.5 sacks--less than 4 a year. Clearly, he is not a sack master, but he is better against the run.

My guess is that he would be better situated at strong side OLB--behind Ahmad Brooks--than he was at weak side OLB.

He has more NFL experience thane either Darius Fleming or Cam Johnson. I think the 4th spot is an open battle between Haralson, Fleming, and Johnson.

But, your take on the situation could be more accurate than mine.

edit: By the way, Julian Peterson played for the 49ers for six years, the same as Haralson. Oddly, both had 21.5 sacks in those six years.
[ Edited by buck on May 17, 2013 at 5:46 AM ]