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Return to the mean

More so now than at any point in many years the offense and defense are pretty even in overall talent. I am hoping the offense deals with the issues relating to play calling delays. That put them in many vulnerable situations last year.
Would prefer to be a slight under dog. But just happy to be relevant again, it has been a long and painful journey.
Originally posted by CRUD:
Originally posted by KegBert:
Not saying there is no room for improvement, there always is, But towards the end of the season it was our defense that was strugaling. In the playoffs our D, on average, gave up around thirty points a game. The argument could be easily made that our offense in fact did the bailing out of the defense and our abysmal ST's.

The Green Bay game ya, offense broke out but it was mostly Kaep running. The Patriots game was great as well but our offense was too hit or miss in the long run (in other games). I know we can't score 40 points a game but I'd like to see it happen I'm a spoiled fan from the 80's and 90's, yes, but I can't help but feel our passing plays are sub par. I think Roman has most of the work to do. Kaep will be alright if we can design some better plays. Gore is going to tear it up so for me the ball is in Romans court so to speak.


I totally agree and it goes beyond just improving from the standpoint of experience. For me, I wanted to go offensive side of the ball in the first 2 picks in this draft. I strongly believe we simply need more offensive playmakers. They were just showing the replay of the Seattle game last night, we managed to drive the ball all the way to the red zone quite a number of times, but we just didn't have enough weapons in the end zone for Kaep to make the play. It was just far too predictable when everybody knew Kaep was targetting Crab. Red zone play is still an achilles heal plus all the 3 and out slow starts we have been struggling with is still an issue. No doubt Kaep will need to improve on certain areas of his game as well such as learning to put more air under the ball in arching the trajectory for the deep pass to ensure the ball goes above the jamming DBs and making the ball easier for the receiver to catch. Bottomline, a good D can only get you so far, but is your offense that is going to win games for you.
Originally posted by SofaKing:
It was Football Outsiders who wrote a lengthy article on the 49ers "returning to the mean". Classic case of relying waaaay too much on statistics.

The whole thing was flawed logic. They predicted the 49ers would have 7 or 8 wins, but using that method their predicted league high was 10 wins, and the league low was 4 wins. That's impossible. There is more parody now than ever, but not THAT much. Their formula made every team gravitate toward 8 wins. There were a few 12 and 13 win teams, as well as 2 and 3 win teams. Just like any other year. The parody in the NFL really doesn't kick in until the playoffs. That's when anyone has a shot.

Parody-a satirical imitation of a serious piece of literature.
Parity-equality
You can take what Football Outsiders says with a grain of salt. Everyone has an opinion. I think Seattle will come back towards their mean this year with a tougher schedule and more film on Wilson for DC's.
I remember Sando running an article last year that "proved" through statistics there was no way we could do better in 2012 than we did in 2011. I laughed at the time and I laughed even harder later.

"There are three kinds of lies: Lies, damn lies, and statistics"
Either way, I for one don't care as long as we get in the playoffs. I don't care what that looks like - 9-7, 10-6, 14-2 - whatever. The playoffs are so unpredictable that every team has a shot. Just get in and let the chips fall.
Originally posted by 49erFaithful6:
Project us for last place please. On paper champions never win anything. Just ask the Eagles.

There's a difference. We didn't acquire a bunch of new guys via free agency that make us look better. They're basing their opinions on the proven product we've placed on the field for the last 2 seasons. Teams like Philly won the off season championship (like Seattle did this year), but do nothing when it matters. We pretty much kept the same proven team together, with the added benefit of a superstar QB that will have more experience this year. The situations are nothing alike.
Originally posted by CRUD:
Our offense is still too dependent on the defense. I'm glad Kaep replaced Smith but he needs to work on some things as does Roman, both are great talents but I want to see more domination on offense where we're not depending on turnovers or rare breakout running plays by Kaep. More pocket presence and better passing plays out of the playbook. I think we'll get that with Kaep having more experience and a full off season with the addition of Boldin.

A breakout run from Kaep has been far from rare.
Originally posted by Rascal:
I totally agree and it goes beyond just improving from the standpoint of experience. For me, I wanted to go offensive side of the ball in the first 2 picks in this draft. I strongly believe we simply need more offensive playmakers. They were just showing the replay of the Seattle game last night, we managed to drive the ball all the way to the red zone quite a number of times, but we just didn't have enough weapons in the end zone for Kaep to make the play. It was just far too predictable when everybody knew Kaep was targetting Crab. Red zone play is still an achilles heal plus all the 3 and out slow starts we have been struggling with is still an issue. No doubt Kaep will need to improve on certain areas of his game as well such as learning to put more air under the ball in arching the trajectory for the deep pass to ensure the ball goes above the jamming DBs and making the ball easier for the receiver to catch. Bottomline, a good D can only get you so far, but is your offense that is going to win games for you.

I think we addressed the RZ offense in the draft ( i'm hoping.) Vance and Quinton (and Boldin) are guys that can box out and "rebound" those RZ jump balls. If those guys have success down there, and get doubled we can game plan and use our speed/route running and under-defended options.
Originally posted by ninersforlife:
Originally posted by Rascal:
I totally agree and it goes beyond just improving from the standpoint of experience. For me, I wanted to go offensive side of the ball in the first 2 picks in this draft. I strongly believe we simply need more offensive playmakers. They were just showing the replay of the Seattle game last night, we managed to drive the ball all the way to the red zone quite a number of times, but we just didn't have enough weapons in the end zone for Kaep to make the play. It was just far too predictable when everybody knew Kaep was targetting Crab. Red zone play is still an achilles heal plus all the 3 and out slow starts we have been struggling with is still an issue. No doubt Kaep will need to improve on certain areas of his game as well such as learning to put more air under the ball in arching the trajectory for the deep pass to ensure the ball goes above the jamming DBs and making the ball easier for the receiver to catch. Bottomline, a good D can only get you so far, but is your offense that is going to win games for you.

I think we addressed the RZ offense in the draft ( i'm hoping.) Vance and Quinton (and Boldin) are guys that can box out and "rebound" those RZ jump balls. If those guys have success down there, and get doubled we can game plan and use our speed/route running and under-defended options.


Anquan definitely, Vance is a project and we definitely need a receiver that can play the deep ball. AJ was supposed to be that guy, is he finally going to be ready ? Will Quinton be able to make the roster ? Or could it be Ricardo ? Still an unknown at this point. Let's just hope we have enough firepower, not just because of those lingering issues, but other teams have got better as well.
Patton and Lockette will both make the roster.
Originally posted by SofaKing:
It was Football Outsiders who wrote a lengthy article on the 49ers "returning to the mean". Classic case of relying waaaay too much on statistics.

The whole thing was flawed logic. They predicted the 49ers would have 7 or 8 wins, but using that method their predicted league high was 10 wins, and the league low was 4 wins. That's impossible. There is more parody now than ever, but not THAT much. Their formula made every team gravitate toward 8 wins. There were a few 12 and 13 win teams, as well as 2 and 3 win teams. Just like any other year. The parody in the NFL really doesn't kick in until the playoffs. That's when anyone has a shot.

My favorite parody is Airplane
Originally posted by Godsleftsock:
Originally posted by SofaKing:
It was Football Outsiders who wrote a lengthy article on the 49ers "returning to the mean". Classic case of relying waaaay too much on statistics.

The whole thing was flawed logic. They predicted the 49ers would have 7 or 8 wins, but using that method their predicted league high was 10 wins, and the league low was 4 wins. That's impossible. There is more parody now than ever, but not THAT much. Their formula made every team gravitate toward 8 wins. There were a few 12 and 13 win teams, as well as 2 and 3 win teams. Just like any other year. The parody in the NFL really doesn't kick in until the playoffs. That's when anyone has a shot.

My favorite parody is Airplane

I like that one too. Especially when Mrs. Cleaver speaks jive.
Originally posted by ninersforlife:
I think we addressed the RZ offense in the draft ( i'm hoping.) Vance and Quinton (and Boldin) are guys that can box out and "rebound" those RZ jump balls. If those guys have success down there, and get doubled we can game plan and use our speed/route running and under-defended options.

Quinton yes but I've never even seen a highlight when Vance was used as you are describing him. He ran some crossing routes sit downs but he wasn't a jump ball receiver... So doubt that's the plan.
Originally posted by Need4Speed:
Originally posted by ninersforlife:
I think we addressed the RZ offense in the draft ( i'm hoping.) Vance and Quinton (and Boldin) are guys that can box out and "rebound" those RZ jump balls. If those guys have success down there, and get doubled we can game plan and use our speed/route running and under-defended options.

Quinton yes but I've never even seen a highlight when Vance was used as you are describing him. He ran some crossing routes sit downs but he wasn't a jump ball receiver... So doubt that's the plan.

Wethere or not he will be used like that is yet to be seen but don't sell our coaching staff short. They have shown the ability to use players in some very creative ways, first thing that comes to mind is converting a college DE and turning him into our starting FB. I assure you that if Vance shows any propensity to come down with jump balls in the red zone this coaching staff will take advantage of it.
Originally posted by SofaKing:
It was Football Outsiders who wrote a lengthy article on the 49ers "returning to the mean". Classic case of relying waaaay too much on statistics.

The whole thing was flawed logic. They predicted the 49ers would have 7 or 8 wins, but using that method their predicted league high was 10 wins, and the league low was 4 wins. That's impossible. There is more parody now than ever, but not THAT much. Their formula made every team gravitate toward 8 wins. There were a few 12 and 13 win teams, as well as 2 and 3 win teams. Just like any other year. The parody in the NFL really doesn't kick in until the playoffs. That's when anyone has a shot.


Correct. Completely flawed.

Their entire point was that the 49ers relied on great defense and great special teams and that those units couldn't duplicate their season. While they assumed they couldn't (and were correct BTW), it never occured to them that the Offense with a full offseason with an offensive minded coach might...gasp...improve.