Originally posted by MadDog49er:
I say this in kindness to all who follow the draft: For those who trust the front office, I think you should trust your own evaluation more. Your opinion may, or may not match what the brass think, but it will be yours. Blindly trusting the front office (as some do on this board) gets you an Aldon Smith one year and a Jenkins the next.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that Janoris Jenkins last year, coming into the draft, was superior to AJ Jenkins. Trust what you see. Sure, you won't get every single detail that the team has access to, but if you watch enough games, and you do your research on measurables, and know the history of what usually pans out and what doesn't, you have just a fair shot as guys who do this for a living. Trust what you see, not a person who represents your organization.
I know that one guy on the board got dogpiled a couple of years ago with his BPA board of 1. Christian Ponder and 2. Ricky Stanzi. I think he was brave to put it out there and defend it with decent arguments. He was wrong, but it was his evaluation and he stood by it.
In the end, you are going to get a broad perspective on players. In the case with Reid, some say he was great value as a mid-first rounder, like Charles Davis of NFL Network. Others, like Daniel Jeremiah, also of NFL Network, think he presents mid-late second round value. Who is right? Nobody knows. That is up to each person to determine.
My argument has always been to those who base their opinion solely on the brass, and tend to be the most aggressive in defending the pick: You do not need to depend on the team's scout and coaches and GM to determine your perspective on a player. You can do this on your own. Trust your instincts.
Finally, if you base your opinion of a player solely on the experts, you end up with a set of picks that didn't look like Seattle's last year. Irvin, Wagner and Wilson turned out to be pretty good, even though the Seahawks were panned by many to have had the worst draft. Trust your instincts.
Got us Kaepernick, Anthony Davis, Mike Iupati, and several others as well. Also got us to the Super Bowl two years after that seemed to be an absurd notion. The front office has earned the trust that many of us have in them.
I "trust my instincts" on things that I'm educated on, because there's a foundation and reason for there to be trust. Trusting your instincts over that of people who know considerably more about a subject (and a solid track record) is merely hubris.
Trusting your instincts give you Blaine Gabbert & Adam Carriker over Aldon Smith & Patrick Willis, just as it gives you JJ Watt & Mike Iupati. Goes both ways.
[ Edited by LA9erFan on Apr 26, 2013 at 12:05 PM ]