Vance "Beastmode" McDonald Thread

Originally posted by Young2Rice:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Young2Rice:

Originally posted by WINiner:
This was the last bad move. The heat that the media and public is giving Baalke for that contract to do nothing McDonald is going to be the nail in his coffin. Plus now we're stuck with Mr. Unreliable for another few seasons.

This is what bad teams do. String of bad decisions that handcuff you for years and years.

Yeah, this $4-7M cap hit should cripple us for a long time...might eat up some of that $100M we have right now.

It has more to do with hanging on to losers in hopes they become better. So far it has been a losing strategy. Meanwhile we've let actual talent leave and failed to bring in outside proven good players with bigger contracts.

You like vance and see his potential that three head coaches didn't utilize or whatever. Thats your opinion and I disagree.

Too me he is unreliable and not that productive and three different head coaches did not target him as much as you allege he needs for a good reason.

Funny you said that before the year...we argued, get him more utilization (from 1 to 4.5)...he gets it...naturally, he produces...gets paid...you're still not happy.

Go figure.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
Rob Grownkowski only has one catch of 60+ yards in his career.
Jimmy Graham has none.
Vernon Davis has 4, but he was legitimately a deep threat with 4.3-4.4 speed.

If you guys want to think Vance McDonald will do this every year when these guys have only done it a handful of times in their career combined, be my guest, but from my vantage point plays that may only happen once or twice in a career are fluke plays.

There's only a couple of TE's who CAN do that...Vance is one of them. Something Kelly talked about.

I'd put Gronkowski firmly in the category of someone who can do that and he's only done it once in his entire career. Vernon Davis was an enormous matchup nightmare for linebackers with his speed and he's only done it 4 times. Vance may not have another 60 yard reception in his career and I would be shocked if he has 2 more in another season.

Interpolating out Vance McDonald's per target stats for future seasons including these 2 fluke plays doesn't make a lot of sense. If we double his targets, is he going to get 4 65+ yard receptions next year?

I like Vance as a blocker and I like his potential due to his RAC ability, but he hasn't been productive as a receiver to date if you take out or adjust for outliers even on a per-target basis. Realistically, we should only expect to see ~7 yards per target on passes thrown towards Vance. He's at 5.8 yards per target if you take out those 2 big plays and he was at 7.1 yards per target last season when he had a much higher catch rate. That number should go up if we find a better QB.

I'm glad we brought McDonald back, but I'm not too thrilled about the price we paid for him. Such is life on a rebuilding team though - we may be lucky we convinced him to re-sign at all. We would have had to overpay for any free agent TE who could replace him anyways.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Funny you said that before the year...we argued, get him more utilization (from 1 to 4.5)...he gets it...naturally, he produces...gets paid...you're still not happy.

Go figure.

Our definitions of production are different.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:

You could do that and it would have much less impact on their stats. The reason it makes sense to do so with McDonald is that his longest catch coming into the season was 36 yards and it's not like he's catching fly routes. These are primarily short passes with a very low probability of him breaking 75 yards to score. 2 extremely long run and catch plays in 12 games out of only 24 total catches are inflating his stats.

If you're going to use stats like yards per catch or passer rating on balls thrown his way, it makes sense to adjust some of the outliers, especially when looking at small samples. The same thing holds true for RB yards per carry - if a player averages 5 yards per carry on 30 carries, but one of those is a 90 yard run, they may have actually hurt their team because they produced 2 yards per carry the rest of the time. You wouldn't say they had a great game because of the one long run.

Over 1/3 of Vance McDonald's production came on two long plays. If you take away the 50 or 60+ yard plays from other players, it wouldn't have as big of an effect on their stats. Travis Kelce is leading the league in receiving at the TE position with a long of 44. Greg Olsen is 2nd with a long of 78, but his 2nd longest catch is 34 yards. Jimmy Graham is 3rd with a long of 40. Delanie Walker is 4th with a long of 47. Jordan Reed is 5th with a long of 33. Jason Witten is 6th with a long of 35. Coby Fleener is 7th with a long of 50. Martellus Bennett is 8th with a long of 58 (his next longest catch is 37). Rob Gronkowski is 9th with a long of 53. Dennis Pitta is 10th with a long of 30. Cameron Brate is 11th with a long of 38. Kyle Rudolph is 12th with a long of 22. Vernon Davis is 13th with a long of 44. Eric Ebron is 14th with a long of 61 (his 2nd longest catch is 34). Zach Miller is 15th with a long of 34. CJ Fiedorowicz is 16th with a long of 26. Gary Barnridge is 17th with a long of 43. Zach Ertz is 18th with a long of 30. Jack Doyle is 19th with a long of 24. Lance Kendricks is 20th with a long of 44. Lance McDonald is 21st with a long of 75 and a 2nd longest catch of 65.

It is unlikely that Vance McDonald will ever have 2 catches that combine for 140 yards again in a season. No other TEs this year have come close to that and many of them have far more targets and catches than Vance. Vance McDonald never caught a pass longer than 36 yards coming into the season. I'm not hating on him for making a couple big plays, but I'm just pointing out that those 2 plays are why he's getting paid and they are flukes. He's not going to make a career out of taking short passes 70 yards for scores.

Yeah your right he can't make plays like this either...he's just good for two long "fluke" plays

https://twitter.com/fourverts/status/803725378078605312

Originally posted by NYniner85:

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
You could do that and it would have much less impact on their stats. The reason it makes sense to do so with McDonald is that his longest catch coming into the season was 36 yards and it's not like he's catching fly routes. These are primarily short passes with a very low probability of him breaking 75 yards to score. 2 extremely long run and catch plays in 12 games out of only 24 total catches are inflating his stats.

If you're going to use stats like yards per catch or passer rating on balls thrown his way, it makes sense to adjust some of the outliers, especially when looking at small samples. The same thing holds true for RB yards per carry - if a player averages 5 yards per carry on 30 carries, but one of those is a 90 yard run, they may have actually hurt their team because they produced 2 yards per carry the rest of the time. You wouldn't say they had a great game because of the one long run.

Over 1/3 of Vance McDonald's production came on two long plays. If you take away the 50 or 60+ yard plays from other players, it wouldn't have as big of an effect on their stats. Travis Kelce is leading the league in receiving at the TE position with a long of 44. Greg Olsen is 2nd with a long of 78, but his 2nd longest catch is 34 yards. Jimmy Graham is 3rd with a long of 40. Delanie Walker is 4th with a long of 47. Jordan Reed is 5th with a long of 33. Jason Witten is 6th with a long of 35. Coby Fleener is 7th with a long of 50. Martellus Bennett is 8th with a long of 58 (his next longest catch is 37). Rob Gronkowski is 9th with a long of 53. Dennis Pitta is 10th with a long of 30. Cameron Brate is 11th with a long of 38. Kyle Rudolph is 12th with a long of 22. Vernon Davis is 13th with a long of 44. Eric Ebron is 14th with a long of 61 (his 2nd longest catch is 34). Zach Miller is 15th with a long of 34. CJ Fiedorowicz is 16th with a long of 26. Gary Barnridge is 17th with a long of 43. Zach Ertz is 18th with a long of 30. Jack Doyle is 19th with a long of 24. Lance Kendricks is 20th with a long of 44. Lance McDonald is 21st with a long of 75 and a 2nd longest catch of 65.

It is unlikely that Vance McDonald will ever have 2 catches that combine for 140 yards again in a season. No other TEs this year have come close to that and many of them have far more targets and catches than Vance. Vance McDonald never caught a pass longer than 36 yards coming into the season. I'm not hating on him for making a couple big plays, but I'm just pointing out that those 2 plays are why he's getting paid and they are flukes. He's not going to make a career out of taking short passes 70 yards for scores.

Yeah your right he can't make plays like this either...he's just good for two long "fluke" plays

https://twitter.com/fourverts/status/803725378078605312

There's a difference between saying a player's stats are inflated due to 2 fluke plays and saying that he's only good for those fluke plays. I've already commented that I like his blocking and RAC ability. Just about every TE in the league has caught a seam pass at some point in their career.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
I'd put Gronkowski firmly in the category of someone who can do that and he's only done it once in his entire career. Vernon Davis was an enormous matchup nightmare for linebackers with his speed and he's only done it 4 times. Vance may not have another 60 yard reception in his career and I would be shocked if he has 2 more in another season.

Interpolating out Vance McDonald's per target stats for future seasons including these 2 fluke plays doesn't make a lot of sense. If we double his targets, is he going to get 4 65+ yard receptions next year?

I like Vance as a blocker and I like his potential due to his RAC ability, but he hasn't been productive as a receiver to date if you take out or adjust for outliers even on a per-target basis. Realistically, we should only expect to see ~7 yards per target on passes thrown towards Vance. He's at 5.8 yards per target if you take out those 2 big plays and he was at 7.1 yards per target last season when he had a much higher catch rate. That number should go up if we find a better QB.

I'm glad we brought McDonald back, but I'm not too thrilled about the price we paid for him. Such is life on a rebuilding team though - we may be lucky we convinced him to re-sign at all. We would have had to overpay for any free agent TE who could replace him anyways.

Again, you are focusing on career stats...can't do that. That was a different offensive focus, HC and OC the first 3.5 years of his career. When Gabbert started under Geep (WCO) and took over from Kaepernick, Geep went full WCO and Gabbert actually uses his TE, hence the big change from 1 to 5 attempts per game. Kelly comes on board, and now, even Kaepernick is targeting Vance (4.5 targets a game); that's an indicator of Kelly's offense. Again, the contract was based on his most recent production within a TE-focused offense (pass catching over the past 16+ games & run blocking) and for future expected production (higher utilization going forward, with better weapons around him esp. at QB and the the X&ZWR positions). Will he get 60 yard TD's every year? Maybe, maybe not? But he certainly has the ability to and he certainly should get more opportunities to within Kelly's system starting next year (following Ertz utilization ascension).

PS: That's not to say I don't understand your concerns about the two long TD's as being outliers. My guestimate is that his utilization can be expected to go up countering that production if he doesn't get two long TD's going forward. But really, it's up to Kelly and the new QB. Vance can't do jack if he isn't targeted...he's proved NOW that when he is, he's a play maker (and he's probably just as important as a run blocker esp. on the edge/out in space). Nobody looks at those b/c there are no "yards gained/TD's as a result of a McDonald block."

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
I'd put Gronkowski firmly in the category of someone who can do that and he's only done it once in his entire career. Vernon Davis was an enormous matchup nightmare for linebackers with his speed and he's only done it 4 times. Vance may not have another 60 yard reception in his career and I would be shocked if he has 2 more in another season.

Interpolating out Vance McDonald's per target stats for future seasons including these 2 fluke plays doesn't make a lot of sense. If we double his targets, is he going to get 4 65+ yard receptions next year?

I like Vance as a blocker and I like his potential due to his RAC ability, but he hasn't been productive as a receiver to date if you take out or adjust for outliers even on a per-target basis. Realistically, we should only expect to see ~7 yards per target on passes thrown towards Vance. He's at 5.8 yards per target if you take out those 2 big plays and he was at 7.1 yards per target last season when he had a much higher catch rate. That number should go up if we find a better QB.

I'm glad we brought McDonald back, but I'm not too thrilled about the price we paid for him. Such is life on a rebuilding team though - we may be lucky we convinced him to re-sign at all. We would have had to overpay for any free agent TE who could replace him anyways.

Again, you are focusing on career stats...can't do that. That was a different offensive focus, HC and OC the first 3.5 years of his career. When Gabbert started under Geep (WCO) and took over from Kaepernick, Geep went full WCO and Gabbert actually uses his TE, hence the big change from 1 to 5 attempts per game. Kelly comes on board, and now, even Kaepernick is targeting Vance (4.5 targets a game); that's an indicator of Kelly's offense. Again, the contract was based on his most recent production within a TE-focused offense (pass catching over the past 16+ games & run blocking) and for future expected production (higher utilization going forward, with better weapons around him esp. at QB and the the X&ZWR positions). Will he get 60 yard TD's every year? Maybe, maybe not? But he certainly has the ability to and he certainly should get more opportunities to within Kelly's system starting next year (following Ertz utilization ascension).

PS: That's not to say I don't understand your concerns about the two long TD's as being outliers. My guestimate is that his utilization can be expected to go up countering that production if he doesn't get two long TD's going forward. But really, it's up to Kelly and the new QB. Vance can't do jack if he isn't targeted...he's proved NOW that when he is, he's a play maker (and he's probably just as important as a run blocker esp. on the edge/out in space). Nobody looks at those b/c there are no "yards gained/TD's as a result of a McDonald block."

If you pull out the 2 long catches, Vance has been much worse this season than last season. I was actually using last season's numbers to suggest that maybe his catch rate will be closer to 65% than 55% in the future so his yards per target may go back up to 7 which is more in line with what he did last year. I do love Vance's run blocking and think his targets and yardage numbers will continue to go up - just not at the rate that some are suggesting based on his per-target numbers this year.

7 yards per target seems a lot more reasonable than the 8.7 yards per target he's averaging this year if you include the 2 long catches or the 5.8 yards per target he's averaging if you do not. If he got 65 yards combined on those 2 catches instead of 140 yards, he'd be at 7.02 yards per target on the year.

At this point, VMac is the only playmaker we have at the TE position. I get he drops too many...so did Vernon early on. What Vance has is big play abilities...and he can block. His play improved last year when Gabbert became the starting QB...they seemed to have good chemistry. Now, he and Kap have been connecting on a more consistent basis. He's a good teammate and citizen off the field. Overall, I'm in favor of his extension.

Originally posted by Young2Rice:

Originally posted by NCommand:
Funny you said that before the year...we argued, get him more utilization (from 1 to 4.5)...he gets it...naturally, he produces...gets paid...you're still not happy.

Go figure.

Our definitions of production are different.

I'm pretty sure your definition is all-pro from day 1, right?

Originally posted by Young2Rice:

Our definitions of production are different.

Yo I think he might improve on those stats if he got more targets and we had a better qb? I do

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
If you pull out the 2 long catches, Vance has been much worse this season than last season. I was actually using last season's numbers to suggest that maybe his catch rate will be closer to 65% than 55% in the future so his yards per target may go back up to 7 which is more in line with what he did last year. I do love Vance's run blocking and think his targets and yardage numbers will continue to go up - just not at the rate that some are suggesting based on his per-target numbers this year.

7 yards per target seems a lot more reasonable than the 8.7 yards per target he's averaging this year if you include the 2 long catches or the 5.8 yards per target he's averaging if you do not. If he got 65 yards combined on those 2 catches instead of 140 yards, he'd be at 7.02 yards per target on the year.

Sure, completely understand your concerns. It's something to watch going forward now. Will Kelly use him more knowing he's got him for the foreseeable future? And if so, what will his production be with those targets? Will he make the most of them? Or will he get the dropsies again? Also, with this upcoming FA this year, we'll have to see what the contracts for TE1's look like...esp. for teams that target their TE's similar to us (4.5 times a game); probably not fair to review offenses who target less or far more. Time will tell.

Originally posted by CorvaNinerFan:
At this point, VMac is the only playmaker we have at the TE position. I get he drops too many...so did Vernon early on. What Vance has is big play abilities...and he can block. His play improved last year when Gabbert became the starting QB...they seemed to have good chemistry. Now, he and Kap have been connecting on a more consistent basis. He's a good teammate and citizen off the field. Overall, I'm in favor of his extension.

I'm pretty indifferent with this contract. If McDonald plays to his potential, it's a good deal for us. If he doesn't, then it's a bad deal. He needs to improve his hands though. He is a playmaker and imagine if we had a playmaker at receiver and RB? Our offense would be really good no matter who's at QB.

If we're going to draft a QB next year we need to upgrade the pass catchers. Not re-signing McDonald would have just been another hole to fill.

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:

There's a difference between saying a player's stats are inflated due to 2 fluke plays and saying that he's only good for those fluke plays. I've already commented that I like his blocking and RAC ability. Just about every TE in the league has caught a seam pass at some point in their career.

Give him more targets plain and simple he gets open throw him the ball...like you said he gets RAC and since he's been the starter over 16 games he's put up top 10 TE numbers even with his lack of targets...now that's he's being paid hopefully they move the ball more towards his way.

Our fan base has a good reason to be called whiners...how people don't want us to sign a good young TE that is continuously improving and if far from the reason we are losing is beyond me...people gonna cry no matter what in here... this is a positive.

People complain that Jed is cheap then they spent a little money and everyone around sounds like Jed b***hing anout spending it lol...until we become a winning franchise we will have to overspend a little, so everyone needs to just get over it and be happy we have a good player on the team at a fair deal...just watch how much players get paid in the upcoming seasons with the cap moving up every yr.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by eastcoast49ersfan:
If you pull out the 2 long catches, Vance has been much worse this season than last season. I was actually using last season's numbers to suggest that maybe his catch rate will be closer to 65% than 55% in the future so his yards per target may go back up to 7 which is more in line with what he did last year. I do love Vance's run blocking and think his targets and yardage numbers will continue to go up - just not at the rate that some are suggesting based on his per-target numbers this year.

7 yards per target seems a lot more reasonable than the 8.7 yards per target he's averaging this year if you include the 2 long catches or the 5.8 yards per target he's averaging if you do not. If he got 65 yards combined on those 2 catches instead of 140 yards, he'd be at 7.02 yards per target on the year.

Sure, completely understand your concerns. It's something to watch going forward now. Will Kelly use him more knowing he's got him for the foreseeable future? And if so, what will his production be with those targets? Will he make the most of them? Or will he get the dropsies again? Also, with this upcoming FA this year, we'll have to see what the contracts for TE1's look like...esp. for teams that target their TE's similar to us (4.5 times a game); probably not fair to review offenses who target less or far more. Time will tell.

Agreed - will be interesting to watch free agency for sure. I'm definitely happier that we extended McDonald than I would be if we lost him - I just think we may have overpaid for him slightly which is understandable given we're a rebuilding team with uncertainty in the coaching staff and front office. I would've preferred something like 5 years $30-32 million, but 5 years $35 million isn't bad.

Originally posted by NYniner85:
Give him more targets plain and simple he gets open throw him the ball...like you said he gets RAC and since he's been the starter over 16 games he's put up top 10 TE numbers even with his lack of targets...now that's he's being paid hopefully they move the ball more towards his way.

Our fan base has a good reason to be called whiners...how people don't want us to sign a good young TE that is continuously improving and if far from the reason we are losing is beyond me...people gonna cry no matter what in here this is a positive.

People complain that Jed is cheap then they spend a little money and everyone around sounds like Jed b***hing anout spending it lol...until we become a winning franchise we will have to overspend a little, so everyone needs to just get over it and be happy we have a good player on the team at a fair deal...just watch how much players get paid in the upcoming seasons with the cap moving up every yr.

And why would ANYONE question any contract we give, save for Tank who clearly didn't pan out. All of our contracts have been terrific...even NFL-leading. See the Kaepernick contract; it became the model contract after that. Even when players didn't pan out, the contracts themselves weren't suicide. You don't get to $100M by giving out irresponsible contracts.