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The Baalke Effect...

Originally posted by Disp:
Whitner isn't gonna get us a 3'rd round comp pick. We signed a dude for basically the same deal to replace him.

Maybe not a 3rd, but contract plays the major part in the formula and Bathea's contract is about 1/3 Whitners
Originally posted by WINiner:
Originally posted by Disp:
Whitner isn't gonna get us a 3'rd round comp pick. We signed a dude for basically the same deal to replace him.

Maybe not a 3rd, but contract plays the major part in the formula and Bathea's contract is about 1/3 Whitners

Here's where we stand so far:

Gains
Bethea (4-yr, $21 mil)
Cook (1-yr, 900k, might not qualify--low salary)

Losses
Whitner (4-yr, $28 mil)
Brown (1-yr, $3.5 mil)
Dixon (undisclosed, probably minimum deal, might not qualify--low salary)


So we have more losses than gains. 1 comp pick could be awarded, but probably a late one. Bethea's and Whitner's deals look similar enough where they might cancel each other out, especially if we make the playoffs and Cleveland does not. Playoffs contributions factor in as well. Cook and Dixon might not factor into the equation at all because of their low deals. The way I see it, if we do get a comp pick, it will be for the loss of Brown.

If anyone has more knowledge on the subject, feel free to chime in.
[ Edited by SofaKing on Mar 16, 2014 at 9:29 PM ]
So let's recap...you guys can list the minor trades here. But essentially, he moved up one spot and acquired a 4th for next year, essentially, making the WR Stevie Johnson trade, for free. Then he moves UP one spot and it only takes a 7th. Talk about pwnage! Then, he goes full value after our biggest need (S) who essentially, kills three birds with one stone (Ward = Nickle and pushes Cox and Wright/Future S next to Reid/ST punt rush team). The value? He gets the best RB in Hyde (esp. for OUR offense) in case Lattimore doesn't work out, gets the best C in the draft by far in case Kilgore doesn't pan out and then gets the red-shirt OT/OG (Thomas) in case Iupati wants to bail (more bargaining power for us here as well). Keeping with the theme, the Johnson trade alone ensures we hold all the bargaining power with Crabtree if he wants to stay with us. Essentially, he just pushed all of our weaknesses to major competitive positions WITH depth while also filling every need now and into the future while ensuring we have the upper hand in contract negotiations.

For those vaginas still crying over a CB or WR? Baalke has a track record of finding and developing (Donatell) CB's in the very late rounds and literally, off the streets in Brock, Cox, Cooper, Morris, Cook, Nnamdi, Wright, Swanson, etc. Some will work out and some won't. Ward pushes both Cox and Wright at the #3 with Brock and Cully solidified as the #1 and #2. Anything else is only bonus and who is going to better than these top 4? WR? With Gore, Hyde, Lattimore, Hampton, Hunter, Miller and James, how many passes do you expect the #3 to get? And what about McDonald who's also expected to be incorporated into the passing game this year. Right now we have Boldin, Crabtree, Johnson and Patton...Baldwin, Patton, Osgood, Wiley, etc. Who are we going to draft that is going to push Patton for one pass a game?

The only need pick we have left is a dynamic returner and he may already be on our roster in Devon Wiley (who also plays the slot).

And just chill...the UDFA's typically have a winner in there as well and let's not forget the grocery-long list of first-time/second year players who are expected to contribute THIS year.

And wait, we still have rounds 4-7 tomorrow as well?
[ Edited by NCommand on May 9, 2014 at 9:09 PM ]
Originally posted by NCommand:
So let's recap...you guys can list the minor trades here. But essentially, he moved up one spot and acquired a 4th for next year, essentially, making the WR Stevie Johnson trade, for free. Then he moves UP one spot and it only takes a 7th. Talk about pwnage! Then, he goes full value after our biggest need (S) who essentially, kills three birds with one stone (Ward = Nickle and pushes Cox and Wright/Future S next to Reid/ST punt rush team). The value? He gets the best RB in Hyde (esp. for OUR offense) in case Lattimore doesn't work out, gets the best C in the draft by far in case Kilgore doesn't pan out and then gets the red-shirt OT/OG (Thomas) in case Iupati wants to bail (more bargaining power for us here as well). Keeping with the theme, the Johnson trade alone ensures we hold all the bargaining power with Crabtree if he wants to stay with us. Essentially, he just pushed all of our weaknesses to major competitive positions WITH depth while also filling every need now and into the future.

For those vaginas still crying over a CB or WR? Baalke has a track record of finding and developing (Donatell) CB's in the very late rounds and literally, off the streets in Brock, Cox, Cooper, Morris, Cook, Nnamdi, Wright, Swanson, etc. Some will work out and some won't. Ward pushes both Cox and Wright at the #3 with Brock and Cully solidified as the #1 and #2. Anything else is only bonus. WR? With Gore, Hyde, Lattimore, Hampton, Hunter, Miller and James, how many passes do you expect the #3 to get? And what about McDonald who's also expected to be incorporated into the passing game this year. Right now we have Boldin, Crabtree, Johnson and Patton...Baldwin, Wiley, Patton, etc. Who are we going to draft that is going to push Patton for one pass a game?

The only need pick we have left is a dynamic returner and he may already be on our roster in Devon Wiley (who also plays the slot).

And just chill...the UDFA's typically have a winner in there as well and let's not forget the grocery-long list of first-time/second year players who are expected to contribute THIS year.

And wait, we still have rounds 4-7 tomorrow as well?

I like reason NCommand, you always bring it
Baalke doing a great job working the draft as usual! Hope it continues tomorrow too! Go Baalke!
Originally posted by NinerBuff:
Originally posted by NCommand:
So let's recap...you guys can list the minor trades here. But essentially, he moved up one spot and acquired a 4th for next year, essentially, making the WR Stevie Johnson trade, for free. Then he moves UP one spot and it only takes a 7th. Talk about pwnage! Then, he goes full value after our biggest need (S) who essentially, kills three birds with one stone (Ward = Nickle and pushes Cox and Wright/Future S next to Reid/ST punt rush team). The value? He gets the best RB in Hyde (esp. for OUR offense) in case Lattimore doesn't work out, gets the best C in the draft by far in case Kilgore doesn't pan out and then gets the red-shirt OT/OG (Thomas) in case Iupati wants to bail (more bargaining power for us here as well). Keeping with the theme, the Johnson trade alone ensures we hold all the bargaining power with Crabtree if he wants to stay with us. Essentially, he just pushed all of our weaknesses to major competitive positions WITH depth while also filling every need now and into the future.

For those vaginas still crying over a CB or WR? Baalke has a track record of finding and developing (Donatell) CB's in the very late rounds and literally, off the streets in Brock, Cox, Cooper, Morris, Cook, Nnamdi, Wright, Swanson, etc. Some will work out and some won't. Ward pushes both Cox and Wright at the #3 with Brock and Cully solidified as the #1 and #2. Anything else is only bonus. WR? With Gore, Hyde, Lattimore, Hampton, Hunter, Miller and James, how many passes do you expect the #3 to get? And what about McDonald who's also expected to be incorporated into the passing game this year. Right now we have Boldin, Crabtree, Johnson and Patton...Baldwin, Wiley, Patton, etc. Who are we going to draft that is going to push Patton for one pass a game?

The only need pick we have left is a dynamic returner and he may already be on our roster in Devon Wiley (who also plays the slot).

And just chill...the UDFA's typically have a winner in there as well and let's not forget the grocery-long list of first-time/second year players who are expected to contribute THIS year.

And wait, we still have rounds 4-7 tomorrow as well?

I like reason NCommand, you always bring it

Thanks brother. And like I reported earlier today, Harvin at $12.9M takes up more cap room in 2015 than Crabtree, Boldin and Johnson combined and all three are 1,000 receivers (even in our low-passing offense). What's there to complain about? Hawks only have $26.1M to sign Russel Wilson, Cliff Avril, K.J. Wright, Bobby Wagner, Malcom Smith, Byron Maxwell, Russell Okung & Doug Baldwin just to name a few of the top names. Also, that's assuming the cap goes up to $140M. Translation? Hawks near future is eff'd. We are golden!
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Originally posted by NCommand:
So let's recap...you guys can list the minor trades here. But essentially, he moved up one spot and acquired a 4th for next year, essentially, making the WR Stevie Johnson trade, for free. Then he moves UP one spot and it only takes a 7th. Talk about pwnage! Then, he goes full value after our biggest need (S) who essentially, kills three birds with one stone (Ward = Nickle and pushes Cox and Wright/Future S next to Reid/ST punt rush team). The value? He gets the best RB in Hyde (esp. for OUR offense) in case Lattimore doesn't work out, gets the best C in the draft by far in case Kilgore doesn't pan out and then gets the red-shirt OT/OG (Thomas) in case Iupati wants to bail (more bargaining power for us here as well). Keeping with the theme, the Johnson trade alone ensures we hold all the bargaining power with Crabtree if he wants to stay with us. Essentially, he just pushed all of our weaknesses to major competitive positions WITH depth while also filling every need now and into the future.

For those vaginas still crying over a CB or WR? Baalke has a track record of finding and developing (Donatell) CB's in the very late rounds and literally, off the streets in Brock, Cox, Cooper, Morris, Cook, Nnamdi, Wright, Swanson, etc. Some will work out and some won't. Ward pushes both Cox and Wright at the #3 with Brock and Cully solidified as the #1 and #2. Anything else is only bonus. WR? With Gore, Hyde, Lattimore, Hampton, Hunter, Miller and James, how many passes do you expect the #3 to get? And what about McDonald who's also expected to be incorporated into the passing game this year. Right now we have Boldin, Crabtree, Johnson and Patton...Baldwin, Wiley, Patton, etc. Who are we going to draft that is going to push Patton for one pass a game?

The only need pick we have left is a dynamic returner and he may already be on our roster in Devon Wiley (who also plays the slot).

And just chill...the UDFA's typically have a winner in there as well and let's not forget the grocery-long list of first-time/second year players who are expected to contribute THIS year.

And wait, we still have rounds 4-7 tomorrow as well?

Best post in the last 48hrs sir.

I recommend that everyone read it.
Originally posted by Crown:
Best post in the last 48hrs sir.

I recommend that everyone read it.

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Originally posted by NCommand:
Originally posted by Crown:
Best post in the last 48hrs sir.

I recommend that everyone read it.


Lol go NC -- thanks for slapping some fools with that. I literally smiled and laughed ear to ear when we got that 4th rounder next season. We basically got Stevie Johnson for a 7th (does someone have details on the conditions of the pick?).
Originally posted by NCommand:
So let's recap...you guys can list the minor trades here. But essentially, he moved up one spot and acquired a 4th for next year, essentially, making the WR Stevie Johnson trade, for free. Then he moves UP one spot and it only takes a 7th. Talk about pwnage! Then, he goes full value after our biggest need (S) who essentially, kills three birds with one stone (Ward = Nickle and pushes Cox and Wright/Future S next to Reid/ST punt rush team). The value? He gets the best RB in Hyde (esp. for OUR offense) in case Lattimore doesn't work out, gets the best C in the draft by far in case Kilgore doesn't pan out and then gets the red-shirt OT/OG (Thomas) in case Iupati wants to bail (more bargaining power for us here as well). Keeping with the theme, the Johnson trade alone ensures we hold all the bargaining power with Crabtree if he wants to stay with us. Essentially, he just pushed all of our weaknesses to major competitive positions WITH depth while also filling every need now and into the future while ensuring we have the upper hand in contract negotiations.

For those vaginas still crying over a CB or WR? Baalke has a track record of finding and developing (Donatell) CB's in the very late rounds and literally, off the streets in Brock, Cox, Cooper, Morris, Cook, Nnamdi, Wright, Swanson, etc. Some will work out and some won't. Ward pushes both Cox and Wright at the #3 with Brock and Cully solidified as the #1 and #2. Anything else is only bonus and who is going to better than these top 4? WR? With Gore, Hyde, Lattimore, Hampton, Hunter, Miller and James, how many passes do you expect the #3 to get? And what about McDonald who's also expected to be incorporated into the passing game this year. Right now we have Boldin, Crabtree, Johnson and Patton...Baldwin, Patton, Osgood, Wiley, etc. Who are we going to draft that is going to push Patton for one pass a game?

The only need pick we have left is a dynamic returner and he may already be on our roster in Devon Wiley (who also plays the slot).

And just chill...the UDFA's typically have a winner in there as well and let's not forget the grocery-long list of first-time/second year players who are expected to contribute THIS year.

And wait, we still have rounds 4-7 tomorrow as well?

Here's the thing about the wideouts. We only got Johnson today... which that's cool and I'm happy about it. Buuuuut...

This team looks to draft TWELVE players. We don't need twelve players.

Now what I would have liked? The 49ers move up and take a WR in Round 1. Now, I know Baalke looked into trading and no team bit, so those are the breaks. Buuuuut...

This team keeps band-aid'ing the WR position, and the latest is Stevie Johnson. Now could the 49ers roll with Crabs, Boldin, & Johnson for the next 2-3 years? Sure, they could, but we know Boldin is gone soon and Lloyd is just insurance.

So your confidence in this situation basically comes down to Quinton Patton. I personally don't think he'll be anything more than a #3... a good #3 like Harry Douglas, but a #3 nevertheless. So that means the future of your team is... Crabtree and Johnson?

I don't love that. I don't love not having a franchise WR waiting in the wings. The Green Bay Packers have perfected this over the years. They took Jordy Nelson & James Jones when they already had Greg Jennings & Donald Driver. Then they took Randall Cobb when they had all five guys. Now they took Devante Adams with Jordy & Cobb & Brandon Boykin still on the roster.

See how they stack their talent at the position? They are never in need because they invest early.

But the 49ers have no investments besides Patton. So again, if you REALLY believe in Patton, then I guess you don't think we need anyone.

Short term, I'm OK with it. Long term? Once Boldin is gone, things could get weird.
Originally posted by NickSh49:
Here's the thing about the wideouts. We only got Johnson today... which that's cool and I'm happy about it. Buuuuut...

This team looks to draft TWELVE players. We don't need twelve players.

Now what I would have liked? The 49ers move up and take a WR in Round 1. Now, I know Baalke looked into trading and no team bit, so those are the breaks. Buuuuut...

This team keeps band-aid'ing the WR position, and the latest is Stevie Johnson. Now could the 49ers roll with Crabs, Boldin, & Johnson for the next 2-3 years? Sure, they could, but we know Boldin is gone soon and Lloyd is just insurance.

So your confidence in this situation basically comes down to Quinton Patton. I personally don't think he'll be anything more than a #3... a good #3 like Harry Douglas, but a #3 nevertheless. So that means the future of your team is... Crabtree and Johnson?

I don't love that. I don't love not having a franchise WR waiting in the wings. The Green Bay Packers have perfected this over the years. They took Jordy Nelson & James Jones when they already had Greg Jennings & Donald Driver. Then they took Randall Cobb when they had all five guys. Now they took Devante Adams with Jordy & Cobb & Brandon Boykin still on the roster.

See how they stack their talent at the position? They are never in need because they invest early.

But the 49ers have no investments besides Patton. So again, if you REALLY believe in Patton, then I guess you don't think we need anyone.

Short term, I'm OK with it. Long term? Once Boldin is gone, things could get weird.

Look at their OL and compare that to ours. And their D vs ours. They stockpile WR's and we stockpile OL and defensive players. That's the huge difference between the 2 teams imo. With that being said, I would love a sleeper speedy WR tomorrow as well as another CB to add to the mix. You don't need to use high draft picks to get quality players at those positions.

Since Baalke traded back to have 7 picks tomorrow, I assume he has alot of sleepers targetted.
[ Edited by kronik on May 9, 2014 at 11:50 PM ]
So, in a draft where we were supposed to be trading up, we've been adding picks (not to mention Baalke working the draft board to net a 2015 4th rounder!). I plan to watch as much of Day 3 as I can before work at 3pm (Draft starts at 12pm for me). I'm hoping Baalke either turns some of these picks into future picks or trades those picks for higher picks, possibly round 4 or 5. We've already added 5 rookies in the first two days, and hopefully Baalke does some more of his outstanding work. I'd be surprised if more than two Day 3 rookies even cracked our roster...
Originally posted by NickSh49:
Here's the thing about the wideouts. We only got Johnson today... which that's cool and I'm happy about it. Buuuuut...

This team looks to draft TWELVE players. We don't need twelve players.

Now what I would have liked? The 49ers move up and take a WR in Round 1. Now, I know Baalke looked into trading and no team bit, so those are the breaks. Buuuuut...

This team keeps band-aid'ing the WR position, and the latest is Stevie Johnson. Now could the 49ers roll with Crabs, Boldin, & Johnson for the next 2-3 years? Sure, they could, but we know Boldin is gone soon and Lloyd is just insurance.

So your confidence in this situation basically comes down to Quinton Patton. I personally don't think he'll be anything more than a #3... a good #3 like Harry Douglas, but a #3 nevertheless. So that means the future of your team is... Crabtree and Johnson?

I don't love that. I don't love not having a franchise WR waiting in the wings. The Green Bay Packers have perfected this over the years. They took Jordy Nelson & James Jones when they already had Greg Jennings & Donald Driver. Then they took Randall Cobb when they had all five guys. Now they took Devante Adams with Jordy & Cobb & Brandon Boykin still on the roster.

See how they stack their talent at the position? They are never in need because they invest early.

But the 49ers have no investments besides Patton. So again, if you REALLY believe in Patton, then I guess you don't think we need anyone.

Short term, I'm OK with it. Long term? Once Boldin is gone, things could get weird.

Oh so you're one of those fans (media included) who wanted us to throw all our picks away and nab a top rated WR like Beckham in the teens? After we JUST picked up a cheap 1,000 x3 WR and who's signed through 2016 (this is a long-term plan in today's NFL - most contracts are really designed for 2 or 3 years with huge escalators in the back end, ala Rogers). But then wouldn't you complain that we didn't get the top-notch CB? See, in a draft you have to 1) Know your team needs and the type of players we need to run our scheme and 2) Note you start out picking 30th (every year) and trust that the most active GM there is, isn't going to sit on his ass. He WILL make this team better...it just may not be using your formula for the team.

Do you know the success rate for 1st and 2nd round WR's? It's 20%. Do you know the success rate of a 6th rounder for an accomplished veteran in Boldin and Stevie Johnson? It's 100%. Stevie IS our proven first round talent of which we basoically got for free. The other piece to this is knowing our team and how we use personnel. Quick, tell me the # of catches our 3rd and 4th leading receivers have. Hint: It ain't much and one is a FB. So even if Crabtree bolts for more $ (and he probably will), you still have two 1,000 receivers, a 1,000 TE and a promising rookie in Patton PLUS whoever else we develop over the next two years.

If there was any indiction we were going to be a dynamic passing attack, running 4 and 5 receiver sets on the regular, that was squashed with the acquisition of the best RB in the draft in Hyde.

Overall, we get your point in that we'd like to have had a franchise WR drop in our lap and ideally, we could groom and develop him into a 5-year WR slowly. That can still happen but it's not going to come at the expense of BPA and forfeiting all our picks for one player. Maybe next year we do that b/c we'll be 3-deep at every position...or Baalke FTW will go out and rape another GM for a stud WR, which is perfectly fine as well. It's not like we run a spread offense here.
Originally posted by kronik:
Originally posted by NickSh49:
Here's the thing about the wideouts. We only got Johnson today... which that's cool and I'm happy about it. Buuuuut...

This team looks to draft TWELVE players. We don't need twelve players.

Now what I would have liked? The 49ers move up and take a WR in Round 1. Now, I know Baalke looked into trading and no team bit, so those are the breaks. Buuuuut...

This team keeps band-aid'ing the WR position, and the latest is Stevie Johnson. Now could the 49ers roll with Crabs, Boldin, & Johnson for the next 2-3 years? Sure, they could, but we know Boldin is gone soon and Lloyd is just insurance.

So your confidence in this situation basically comes down to Quinton Patton. I personally don't think he'll be anything more than a #3... a good #3 like Harry Douglas, but a #3 nevertheless. So that means the future of your team is... Crabtree and Johnson?

I don't love that. I don't love not having a franchise WR waiting in the wings. The Green Bay Packers have perfected this over the years. They took Jordy Nelson & James Jones when they already had Greg Jennings & Donald Driver. Then they took Randall Cobb when they had all five guys. Now they took Devante Adams with Jordy & Cobb & Brandon Boykin still on the roster.

See how they stack their talent at the position? They are never in need because they invest early.

But the 49ers have no investments besides Patton. So again, if you REALLY believe in Patton, then I guess you don't think we need anyone.

Short term, I'm OK with it. Long term? Once Boldin is gone, things could get weird.

Look at their OL and compare that to ours. And their D vs ours. They stockpile WR's and we stockpile OL and defensive players. That's the huge difference between the 2 teams imo. With that being said, I would love a sleeper speedy WR tomorrow as well as another CB to add to the mix. You don't need to use high draft picks to get quality players at those positions.

Since Baalke traded back to have 7 picks tomorrow, I assume he has alot of sleepers targetted.

Exactly. First, I think the FO identified a few receivers that they would want to help now and be the #1 in the future (Watkins, Evans, Beckham). It became clear it would have cost WAY too much to get one of those guys. The next crop of guys (Cooks, Robinson, Latimor, etc.) all are talented but were not going to make an immediate impact on our team and would be questionable to take a #1 role later. So, Baalke and Co. decided to address other areas and get very talented players and value positions. This same analysis applies to the CBs in the draft. Once the top guys were gone, the FO did not see those available as being able to supplant Culliver, Brock, Wright, etc. The Ward pick helps the DBs in general, whether his position is CB or not.

Also, Kronik made a very good point. Yes, GB has been drafting WRs very well (and fairly high) for years and have a nice stable. However, other areas of their team have suffered. Would you trade the stability of our OL and DL, LBs and STs to have the GB WR group? Especially when our current group of Crabtree, Boldin, Johnson and Patton looks pretty good.
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Originally posted by NickSh49:
Here's the thing about the wideouts. We only got Johnson today... which that's cool and I'm happy about it. Buuuuut...

This team looks to draft TWELVE players. We don't need twelve players.

Now what I would have liked? The 49ers move up and take a WR in Round 1. Now, I know Baalke looked into trading and no team bit, so those are the breaks. Buuuuut...

This team keeps band-aid'ing the WR position, and the latest is Stevie Johnson. Now could the 49ers roll with Crabs, Boldin, & Johnson for the next 2-3 years? Sure, they could, but we know Boldin is gone soon and Lloyd is just insurance.

So your confidence in this situation basically comes down to Quinton Patton. I personally don't think he'll be anything more than a #3... a good #3 like Harry Douglas, but a #3 nevertheless. So that means the future of your team is... Crabtree and Johnson?

I don't love that. I don't love not having a franchise WR waiting in the wings. The Green Bay Packers have perfected this over the years. They took Jordy Nelson & James Jones when they already had Greg Jennings & Donald Driver. Then they took Randall Cobb when they had all five guys. Now they took Devante Adams with Jordy & Cobb & Brandon Boykin still on the roster.

See how they stack their talent at the position? They are never in need because they invest early.

But the 49ers have no investments besides Patton. So again, if you REALLY believe in Patton, then I guess you don't think we need anyone.

Short term, I'm OK with it. Long term? Once Boldin is gone, things could get weird.

Still peeved the draft went in the direction of a trade down instead of a trade up?

Heh. I think the draft went in that direction because it was just too expensive to trade up, and the Steven Johnson trade eliminated the need to trade up. But I'm with you on the need for WR speed and a young talented CB. I think they fill those needs today.

Two ways you get vertical threat receivers. One way is to get pure speed to back off DBs the other way is the Jerry Rice method. Great quickness and strength to beat the jam at the LOS and size to box out the db on a deep pass. I think stevie is the latter way.