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The Baalke Effect...

  • LVJay
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Originally posted by SofaKing:
Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
why do so many of you b***h about our history of drafting wrs? we already have crabs, boldin, johnson, lloyd, patton, ellington and vd to catch passes. who gives a f**k that we can't draft a #1 wr in the 4th f**king round. we are stacked and ready to rock and roll.



It's funny because people are pointing to GB, but I like our WR depth better. I'll take Crab/Boldin/Johnson over any 3-man combination GB has any day of the week.

Not just GB, but I'd prefer our 3 vs most teams' 3 WR set. We already know Crabs/Boldin/Johnson are proven and good to go... what if (just what if) Patton shines, Lloyd forces us to keep him because he proves to still have "it" in camp/preseason.

Then, there's Ellington, what if he shines in camp/preseason. And Osgood (ST star)? Baldwin is practically gone (imo)... however, what if he shines in camp/preseason, what are we gonna do?
[ Edited by LVJay on May 10, 2014 at 10:01 PM ]
It's a very good problem to have.
  • Giedi
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Originally posted by pasodoc9er:

Maybe not perfect, but certainly in the 93 to 95% range, or a strong A. Oddly, a guy not friendly to us, Mel kipper thot baalke killed it by end of day 2, and gave us best grade in draft. Who wants to argue with that?

I agree. It was a solid draft. I can see some folks who don't know the kind of offense and defense we run - will get frustrated that some of the sexy draft picks were drafted by other teams, but those who have a bit more knowledge will be satisfied with the draft.

Good solid WR squad now with Stevie and Ellington. Good raw talent at CB with Donatelle ready to shape and mould that rawness into some all pro material. Our run game just got better with our addition of a powerful center, and a powerful short yardage runner that can also be a 20+ carry kind of bruiser of a back. I'm very happy with our draft, and just taking a quick peek at the Seadderall draft, I'm not impressed with their picks. However, it's nothing that a good dose of PED's can't fix.
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
So we already established drafting WRs is a crapshoot, winning 20% of the time. ( it sure seems less than that, but...). So how many WRs did baalke have in camp immediately after the draft last yr? It was a bunch, but either 9 or 10 I can remember. Granted some were not here long, but nonetheless, baalke had a good look at maybe as many as 10, but 8 for sure. How many stuck? Yeah, just a couple, and patton really is the remnants. So how many WRs did we end up with? Well Ellington in draft, and 2 by trade, both slot potential and Stevie can be deep threat besides. No guessing on these guys, everybody has seen the 2 of them play in the NFL. College talent is immaterial. They ARE NFL WRs. And we got Stevie for basically nothing by the time Trent had the dust settle. Now is that better, equal or worse than getting a WR at #18 and trading half our picks to get him...and then all we have is a heralded college player. Advantage? Baalke.

Ok CBs. Baalke gets his man at #30, smallish, but very good. NO idea if he makes the squad but would bet heavy on it. My guess prior to draft was move up to get the best CB baalke liked and then get another(NC politely talked me out of it)....burning more picks and virtually our draft would be over. We would not have answered our Center need, nor our ILB potential need if things go south for aldon &/or don't go well post op for Navarro. We get another Frank Gore in Hyde, having our RB in the pipeline, and I bet he gets some touches this yr. Oops, we got too many RBs. Well JH and Trent both have said LMJ isn't going anywhere, so bet on him being the one going. Also makes me wonder if lattimore is going to turn out ok from his surgery. We get an OG, altho has an ACL, so another OL in the pipeline.

What happens then? Well we get 3 more CBs meaning 1 out of every three picks of the 12 was a CB/S (ok, DB). 1 out of 3. That is amazing. I got my CBs back to back almost, but just way later than planned. They may be worthless, they may stick. It may also turn out that our #2 CB is already on the squad, but sitting right now at #3-6. Maybe trent knows we have a starter already besides Brock. But, with drafting 1/3 of our picks as DBs tells me that those CBs in the #3-6 spots are NOT showing dominance, and so we bring in 4 more DBs(actually only 3 CBs).

Late late, we get more DL, OL, a WR Ellington who has no expectations...if he hits, fantastic. If not, trent fixed up WR with trades, not picks. WE get a late QB, altho we now have nobody who can take over if kap goes down, esp against elites. That is a bit of a worry, but knock on wood, kap has good hx of non injury.

Put that all together and then you know trent will have 5 or 6 more UDFA CBs and same # of WRs in camp for a look see.

So I ask: How in the hell could one have done a better job at all our needs with more studs than we ended up with? To me it would seem tough to beat baalke's draft and approach, tho some wanted that hotshot WR , others wanted that hotshot top CB. Well other teams got those guys and baalke just made this team way better, with a chance at perfection if one of the 3 CBs hits or Ellington hits. The ILB was rated about 20 slots higher, so this was value. Same for Hyde, ranked about 34-ish. Value. Center is solid and would have to be an improvement on Goodwin, and also can play guard...oops, adios Snyder, and we know and want Goodwin gone.

If you are unhappy with this ,ok, that is your opinion. But we done good AND we went into draft with 43 locks (AB 81) and then our 2 new WRs makes 45. OUr first pick is certain to be a lock. We will upgrade at RB by a huge margin, ILB possible need as noted above...but trent has it covered. My only concern is Qb, but I have to assume JH feels gabbert can win the uncontested games but lose to elites...but kap has good hx of not being injured. I wish we had a solid backup, but you can't have everything.

Maybe not perfect, but certainly in the 93 to 95% range, or a strong A. Oddly, a guy not friendly to us, Mel kipper thot baalke killed it by end of day 2, and gave us best grade in draft. Who wants to argue with that?

Very nice breakdown, doc. Well said.

This draft lacked the big splash people may have been expecting, like trading up into the teens for a WR or CB. But the fact of the matter is every starting position on this team was secure, with the exception of slot corner, and Ward is a dynamite slot corner with the skills to be much more in the future.

The rest of the picks went to giving this team the type of depth that, quite frankly, is almost unheard of. This team is ridiculously stacked. Can't wait for this season to start so we can whoop the league's ass.
[ Edited by SofaKing on May 10, 2014 at 10:07 PM ]
Originally posted by LVJay:
Originally posted by SofaKing:
Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
why do so many of you b***h about our history of drafting wrs? we already have crabs, boldin, johnson, lloyd, patton, ellington and vd to catch passes. who gives a f**k that we can't draft a #1 wr in the 4th f**king round. we are stacked and ready to rock and roll.



It's funny because people are pointing to GB, but I like our WR depth better. I'll take Crab/Boldin/Johnson over any 3-man combination GB has any day of the week.

Not just GB, but I'd prefer our 3 vs most teams' 3 WR set. We already know Crabs/Boldin/Johnson are proven and good to go... what if (just what if) Patton shines, Lloyd forces us to keep him because he proves to still have "it" in camp/preseason.

Then, there's Ellington, what if he shines in camp/preseason. And Osgood (ST star)? Baldwin is practically gone (imo)... however, what if he shines in camp/preseason, what are we gonna do?

Absolutely. You'd be hard pressed to find a better trio anywhere in the league. 3 guys who are 1,000 yard WRs very recently.
  • Giedi
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Originally posted by LVJay:
Not just GB, but I'd prefer our 3 vs most teams' 3 WR set. We already know Crabs/Boldin/Johnson are proven and good to go... what if (just what if) Patton shines, Lloyd forces us to keep him because he proves to still have "it" in camp/preseason.

Then, there's Ellington, what if he shines in camp/preseason. And Osgood (ST star)? Baldwin is practically gone (imo)... however, what if he shines in camp/preseason, what are we gonna do?

That's the Harbaugh philosophy and it's pretty much bullet proof. He Gets a lot of good athletes at a position and let them compete. No need for any fancy shmancy Jimmy Johnson psyche job on any of these players -- because it's really simple, if any of them get lazy and perform less than their best, their competition is so good, they won't make the 53 squad. Take a guy like Baldwin - if he doesn't step it up, he's gone. He's no dummy, he can tune into the NFL network just like we can. He knows he's in for a dogfight to keep his job this year, same with Lloyd and Patton.
  • Giedi
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Originally posted by SofaKing:
Very nice breakdown, doc. Well said.

This draft lacked the big splash people may have been expecting, like trading up into the teens for a WR or CB. But the fact of the matter is every starting position on this team was secure, with the exception of slot corner, and Ward is a dynamite slot corner with the skills to be much more in the future.

The rest of the picks went to giving this team the type of depth that, quite frankly, is almost unheard of. This team is ridiculously stacked. Can't wait for this season to start so we can whoop the league's ass.

Nickel D has been a sore point for a very long time. Practically for the last three years in fact. I think going into this pre-season, we now have gotten an upgrade on the nickel D. The DB's we drafted (four of them) will give the veterans a run for their money and solidify that Nickel D. Hopefully the retooled nickel D will stand up to the elite passing attacks in the playoffs and get us a 6th Lombardi and I can go to the .Nut boards and discuss which is better 1 or 6.
  • LVJay
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Originally posted by SofaKing:
Absolutely. You'd be hard pressed to find a better trio anywhere in the league. 3 guys who are 1,000 yard WRs very recently.

Atlanta may have Roddy/Julio, but their # 3 (Harry Douglas) is behind ours... what other team is out there (Denver maybe, I dunno)



Originally posted by Giedi:
That's the Harbaugh philosophy and it's pretty much bullet proof. He Gets a lot of good athletes at a position and let them compete. No need for any fancy shmancy Jimmy Johnson psyche job on any of these players -- because it's really simple, if any of them get lazy and perform less than their best, their competition is so good, they won't make the 53 squad. Take a guy like Baldwin - if he doesn't step it up, he's gone. He's no dummy, he can tune into the NFL network just like we can. He knows he's in for a dogfight to keep his job this year, same with Lloyd and Patton.

I love it. I hope they all do damn good in TC and preseason so that it's too hard for us to decide who goes bye bye. Who knows, HarBaalke might even get something in return for having to depart with one or two of the WRs...
  • sfout
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Originally posted by LVJay:
Originally posted by SofaKing:
Originally posted by DonnieDarko:
why do so many of you b***h about our history of drafting wrs? we already have crabs, boldin, johnson, lloyd, patton, ellington and vd to catch passes. who gives a f**k that we can't draft a #1 wr in the 4th f**king round. we are stacked and ready to rock and roll.



It's funny because people are pointing to GB, but I like our WR depth better. I'll take Crab/Boldin/Johnson over any 3-man combination GB has any day of the week.

Not just GB, but I'd prefer our 3 vs most teams' 3 WR set. We already know Crabs/Boldin/Johnson are proven and good to go... what if (just what if) Patton shines, Lloyd forces us to keep him because he proves to still have "it" in camp/preseason.

Then, there's Ellington, what if he shines in camp/preseason. And Osgood (ST star)? Baldwin is practically gone (imo)... however, what if he shines in camp/preseason, what are we gonna do?

Baldwin is gone. I said it all spring, only way he makes this roster is if he shows he can be a 24 year old version of Kassim Osgood and save the team about a $1 million.

Right now the team has to decide if they think having Lloyd, who does not play ST, as emergency depth outweighs Osgood, who does play ST.

Crabtree, Boldin, Johnson, Patton, Ellington, Osgood / Lloyd - EVERYBODY ELSE that is the pecking order going into OTAs.
  • Giedi
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Originally posted by sfout:
Baldwin is gone. I said it all spring, only way he makes this roster is if he shows he can be a 24 year old version of Kassim Osgood and save the team about a $1 million.

Right now the team has to decide if they think having Lloyd, who does not play ST, as emergency depth outweighs Osgood, who does play ST.

Crabtree, Boldin, Johnson, Patton, Ellington, Osgood / Lloyd - EVERYBODY ELSE that is the pecking order going into OTAs.
While I agree in principle with what you are saying, I still think he's talented enough to make this team, if he makes some plays in pre-season. He still has great size and athletic talents. A poor man's version of Mike Evans, if you will. Man I'm still peeved we couldn't trade up for him or Odell. But yeah, if he plays like he played last Year, he's pretty much gone.
Giedi, you have to believe that trent didn't think as highly about the top CBs and WRs as some of the rest of us did. Also, what some wanted would have cost a lot of our picks, and some next yr also. Trent accomplished way more than anyone reasonably could have asked for. A note on our CBs. We have a #1 in Brock (who remember only got a chance once there was an injury), we got a solid #3-6, but no # 2. Well Ward can play press, plus SS, and I will be very surprised if not just one but maybe 2 of Trent's late CB picks stick and we have to let our #5 an #6 CB go. We will know by end of PS. Whatever, who dreamt of havning a starting SS PLUS 3 CBs in the draft?

As for the WRs, I don't think after Watkins he really liked anybody that much to trade up significantly so he fixed that with trades right before and during draft for known commodities, both Slots and stevie can be a deep threat also. Somewhere in there amongst our 5 CBs, 2 Ss, and Ward, plus 3 more CBs, we are going to find a return specialist also. If not I will eat my hat. Just too much defensive skill positions to not have a top flite PR/KR. Odds would be we find a guy there who also competes for #2 CB.

Trent said either just after draft started or maybe just before that as deep as draft was for CBs, he wasn't that impressed by the well known consensus CBs. Hence he took his CBs much later, most under the radar, but talented. Obviously there is room for only 1 more CB slot, but one of our #3-6 or maybe two may be moved out. That would really be neat. My guess is trent will favor the guys who can play press corner over those who can't. He also wasn't about to get Gilbert and give away half his draft...which most all analysts agree that Trent did great. For all we know, he may not have been that high on gilbet either. In the end I would rather have 3 CBs to pick from plus 9 other talented guys than one gilbert. And it looks like what trent was thinking.
  • sfout
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Originally posted by Giedi:
While I agree in principle with what you are saying, I still think he's talented enough to make this team, if he makes some plays in pre-season. He still has great size and athletic talents. A poor man's version of Mike Evans, if you will. Man I'm still peeved we couldn't trade up for him or Odell. But yeah, if he plays like he played last Year, he's pretty much gone.

You'd want our 6th WR to be someone who doesn't play ST? It is going to come down to someone showing they can bump Osgood of the roster with their own versatility and lack of a 10 year+ veteran salary.

We "could have" traded for Beckham, we just didn't want to pay what Tennessee and other teams were asking for.
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Giedi, you have to believe that trent didn't think as highly about the top CBs and WRs as some of the rest of us did. Also, what some wanted would have cost a lot of our picks, and some next yr also. Trent accomplished way more than anyone reasonably could have asked for. A note on our CBs. We have a #1 in Brock (who remember only got a chance once there was an injury), we got a solid #3-6, but no # 2. Well Ward can play press, plus SS, and I will be very surprised if not just one but maybe 2 of Trent's late CB picks stick and we have to let our #5 an #6 CB go. We will know by end of PS. Whatever, who dreamt of havning a starting SS PLUS 3 CBs in the draft?

As for the WRs, I don't think after Watkins he really liked anybody that much to trade up significantly so he fixed that with trades right before and during draft for known commodities, both Slots and stevie can be a deep threat also. Somewhere in there amongst our 5 CBs, 2 Ss, and Ward, plus 3 more CBs, we are going to find a return specialist also. If not I will eat my hat. Just too much defensive skill positions to not have a top flite PR/KR. Odds would be we find a guy there who also competes for #2 CB.

Trent said either just after draft started or maybe just before that as deep as draft was for CBs, he wasn't that impressed by the well known consensus CBs. Hence he took his CBs much later, most under the radar, but talented. Obviously there is room for only 1 more CB slot, but one of our #3-6 or maybe two may be moved out. That would really be neat. My guess is trent will favor the guys who can play press corner over those who can't. He also wasn't about to get Gilbert and give away half his draft...which most all analysts agree that Trent did great. For all we know, he may not have been that high on gilbet either. In the end I would rather have 3 CBs to pick from plus 9 other talented guys than one gilbert. And it looks like what trent was thinking.

I think Baalke did a very good job of drafting for this year. He has a very good perception of our needs and he went out and got them. He got Ward, his top grade on a CB/Safety. He got Hyde, and Martin and Borland. That is four major picks. Then he got Ellington, Millard, and Thomas three more very good players. So Harbaugh and company have a lot of people to coach up and Tomsula has a lot of people on the Dline to develop. It is time for Carradine, and Dial to show us what they've got. I can hardly wait for training camp. Good job Trent.
  • Giedi
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Originally posted by sfout:
You'd want our 6th WR to be someone who doesn't play ST? It is going to come down to someone showing they can bump Osgood of the roster with their own versatility and lack of a 10 year+ veteran salary.

We "could have" traded for Beckham, we just didn't want to pay what Tennessee and other teams were asking for.

That's the only reason Osgood made the team, because of him being an excellent special teams player. Other than that, he's a journeyman WR. I do want our special teams strong, but the 4 DB's that we drafted might be able to do what Osgood does on special teams. We won't know until they actually play of course. As for punt returner, I don't think Osgood does that. Ellington can do that, or can develop that skillset.

The trade up was too expensive, I've stated that before. It's not worth it to have traded a number 1 pick next year when we no longer have an extra 2nd rounder. I think trading down was the right move. However, those WR's taking in the top half of the first round are potentially future hall of famers like a Jerry Rice. I wish we could have gotten one of them.
But Giedi, like AJ and rashuan woods showed, they might just be busts. I think the likelihood of all the top 7 WRs becoming stars is not very likely. I think several will but I bet an equal number won't. And that is way better than the 20% of WRs who traditionally become NFL stars at WR. Drafting WRs high has bitten us in the behind, along with lots of other teams. So honestly, I loved Trent's answer. Go out and get known commodities. It takes the 80% failure rate of top WRs out of the equation. You gotta like that kind of thinking.