I thought I would write this article for my website, NinerCapHell.com, and here it is for everyone, a look into the future, cap wise.
NOTE: If in wrong place, I apologize than.
Many people are wondering what will happen in the 2013 offseason, and I want to shed some light into what could happen, cap wise.
First off lets take a look at how much we have to work with in 2013. We currently have $118,407,914 in committed salaries for 43 players, plus another $406,481 in dead money. Which leaves us only under the cap by $3,588,665, that is if the cap is set at $121 million, and we use the cap credit from the violations from the Redskins and Cowboys un-capped year. The credit is $1.643 Million.
Now the 49ers currently have the following players as free agents after this season.
RB Brandon Jacobs
WR Randy Moss
WR Ted Ginn Jr.
TE Delanie Walker
RG Leonard Davis
NT Isaac Sopoaga
NT/DE Ricky Jean Francois
OLB Clark Haggans
ILB Larry Grant
ILB Tavares Gooden
CB Tramaine Brock (RFA)
FS Dashon Goldson
SS Darcel McBath (RFA)
Now I expect the 49ers to re-sign Brock and McBath to 1-year deals worth $630,000, which is the minimum for a player going into their 4th year. I cannot see either being tendered at the $1.26 Million RFA original round offer.
The 49ers will have a tough decision to make on Goldson and Sopoaga. They must decide which is more important to the team. Goldson makes a lot of great plays on defense, he is a hard hitting safety, with some coverage issues, and makes some bad mistakes. While Sopoaga does not play as often as the other defensive lineman do.
But in order to even make the re-signings or any signings, including draft picks, they must create cap room. The easiest ways are restructuring and extending the deals of DE Justin Smith, SS Donte Whitner, and PK David Akers.
If the 49ers give each player 3-year deals through the 2015 season, they could see a savings of $7,586,668 to be exact. And if OLB Parys Haralson is let go the 49ers would create an additional $2.87 Million in cap room.
They also need to address C Jonathan Goodwin and his over $5 Million cap figure. They could cut him and save around $4.35 Million in cap space. But if they wanted to keep him around, as he is playing at a high level right now, they could do the same that they did the previous 3(Smith, Whitner, and Akers), and save around $2 Million in cap room.
What I figured for Smith, Whitner, and Akers for new deals are below.
Smith has a base salary of $7.5 Million, which would be cut down to $940,000, which converts the remaining $6.56 Million into a signing bonus, prorated over 3 seasons, at $2,186,666. He also has a $500,000 workout bonus that I would keep as is. You would also guarantee his 2013 salary.
We could see his cap figures look like this.
2013- $940,000(Base Salary), $500,000(Workout Bonus), and $2,186,666 (Signing Bonus) = $3,626,666
2014- $3,500,000(Base Salary), $500,000(Workout Bonus), and $2,186,666(Signing Bonus) = $6,186,666
2015- $6,500,000(Base Salary), $500,000(Workout Bonus), and $2,186,666(Signing Bonus) = $9,186,666
Total Value = 3-year deal worth around $19 Million
We would save $4,373,334 in cap room with this deal for Smith.
Whitner now has a $3.75 Million base salary, which we can cut down to $840,000, which converts the remaining $2.91 Million into a signing bonus, prorated over 3 seasons, at $970,000 a year. Now he would have $833,333 in signing bonus proration from his previous 3-year deal on 2013 cap. We would also guarantee his 2013 salary.
We could see his cap figures look like this.
2013- $840,000(Base Salary), $250,000(Workout Bonus), $833,333(Previous Signing Bonus), $970,000(New Signing Bonus) = $2,993,333
2014- $2,000,000(Base Salary), $250,000(Workout Bonus), $970,000(New Signing Bonus) = $970,000 = $3,220,000
2015- $3,000,000(Base Salary), $250,000(Workout Bonus), $970,000(New Signing Bonus) = $4,220,000
Total Value = 3-year deal worth around $10.43 Million
We would save $1.84 Million in cap room with this deal for Whitner.
Akers now has a $3 Million base salary for 2013, which can be cut down to $940,000, which converts the remaining $2.06 Million into a signing bonus, prorated over 3 seasons, at $686,666, Now he has a previous signing bonus proration of $566,667 for 2013. We would also guarantee his 2013 salary.
We could see his cap figures look like this.
2013- $940,000(Base Salary), $566,667(Previous Signing Bonus), $686,666(New Signing Bonus), $50,000(Possible Pro Bowl Incentives) = $2,243,333
2014- $1,500,000(Base Salary), $686,666(New Signing Bonus), $50,000(Possible Pro Bowl Incentive) = $2,236,666
2015- $2,500,000(Base Salary), $686,666(New Signing Bonus), $50,000(Possible Pro Bowl Incentive) = $3,236,666
Total Value = 3-year deal worth around $7.716 Million
We would see a savings of $1,373,334 in cap room for this deal for Akers.
With those 3 extensions, cutting Haralson, possibly Goodwin, and previous $3,588,665 in cap room, up to $18,395,333 under before any deals for free agents or draft picks.
Now we currently have $85,250,836 in committed salaries for 2014, for 28 players signed, then add in $11,643,332 combined for Smith, Whitner and Akers contract extensions, we would have 31 players committed, with $96,894,168 committed in salary cap room. And if the cap goes up to just about $122 Million, that leaves us under the 2014 cap by $25,105,832.
Of course that does not include the 2013 and 2014 draft picks numbers. Lets say we use 7 draft picks in 2013 and 7 draft picks in 2014, and the total spent is around $4.5 Million in 2013, double that for the 2014 cap to $9 Million, and another $4.5 Million for 2014, leaves us under the 2014 cap by $11,605,832. And of course not all players will be there when the 2014 season begins.
The key free agents in the 2014 offseason are QB Scott Tolzien, FB/DE Will Tukuafu, WR Kyle Williams, WR Mario Manningham, TE/DE Demarcus Dobbs, NT Ian Williams, ILB NaVorro Bowman, CB Tarell Brown, and CB Perrish Cox.
Of those, Tolzien, Tukuafu, Dobbs, I.Williams, and Cox are RFAs to be, and could easily be retained on small minimum or small multi year deals. The big ones are K.Williams, Manningham, Bowman and Brown.
Now if we take into account for 2015, and use the $16,643,332 for the 3 extensions done, plus draft picks for 2013, 2014 and 2015(Total of say $15 Million) And again they will probably not all be here. And we have committed right now $50,470,243 for 13 players, plus dead money of $1,866,666 for the void of Anthony Davis deal, we would now have a total of $83,980,241 committed for 2015. That would, if the cap is $125 Million, under the cap by $41,019,759.
We could re-sign guys like Bowman, Manningham and Brown, and push most of it into 2015 to ease up on the 2014 cap.
We now would have key free agents after 2014, they are, QB Colin Kaerpernick, RB Kendall Hunter, FB Bruce Miller, WR Michael Crabtree, C Daniel Kilgore, LG Mike Iupati, RT Anthony Davis, OLB Aldon Smith, CB Chris Culliver, and FS C.J. Spillman.
I expect the big deals will be given to Crabtree, Iupati, A.Davis, A.Smith, and Culliver. Hunter, and Kilgore could see good pay raises if they are starters by then. Kaepernick would be a possible good sized deal if he takes over as starter.
Other free agents like QB Alex Smith, RB Frank Gore, and LS Brian Jennings likely do not fix in the long term plans.
Now lets get back to the original topic, 2013 offseason. We have primary free agents who could attract attention. Moss, Walker, Sopoaga, Jean Francois, and Goldson.
If we take out $4.5 Million of the $18,395,333 under from previously mentioned in this article for draft picks, we would have $13,895,333 left to spend on free agents.
I expect the 49ers to let Sopoaga walk, as he is not used as much as you would think he would be. Also expect the 49ers to either franchise Goldson again, or extend him. It would cost about $7.45 Million to franchise Goldson again.
Lets say they tag Goldson right now, and re-sign the following, Brock and McBath for 1-year deals worth $630,000 each, so that takes away $1.26 Million away. But there is no guaranteed money, so that is a good thing. Now Gooden can be re-signed either for vet minimum of $840,000, with vet credit down to $550,000, giving us a credit of $290,000 , and we can give him a $65,000 bonus, since he has signed for 2 1-year deals with non guaranteed money, and he has been good for us on special teams.
I expect the 49ers to then, re-sign Jean Francois, to around a 4-year deal worth around $2.75 Million a year, so a total of $11 Million, which will be less than the current $3.8 Million base salary for Sopoaga. Plus Sopoaga got a near $20 Million deal extension a few years back, so we would be saving $9 Million to not extend Sopoaga.
Now if for some reason Sopoaga is willing to take a contract around the one Jean Francois is getting, then I can see us doing that with Sopoaga, but I would rather we go with a guy who is younger, and just as good as Sopoaga.
I expect Jacobs and Grant to both be gone, as they will bolt for money and playing time. The decision comes down to Walker and Moss. Do we go ahead and let both walk, bring back both, or just one of them.
What makes most sense for the 49ers is to keep the defense together as best as possible. That means re-signing Goldson. I would not expect the 49ers to go over $6-$6.5 Million a year for 5 years.
If the 49ers can get a reasonable deal done with Goldson that is structured similar to how the 49ers did with deal for Alex Smith in 2012 offseason, then it should be a no brainer. I would also load it up into 2015 and 2016 when the cap is to raise up more.
As I projected the 49ers would have $13,895,333 left after allocating the $4.5 Million to their 2013 draft class, then they take off $1.26 Million for Brock/McBath, $615,000 for Gooden, $2 Million for Jean Francois, and $5 Million for Goldson, that leafes the 49ers under the cap by $5,020,333, leaving them enough room to possibly get an extension done for Bowman, or possibly retain Walker.
Another key content is the fact that the 49ers can easily cut ties with both QB Alex Smith, and CB Carlos Rogers to create even more cap room.
For Smith his 2013 base salary becomes guaranteed on April 1st, 2013 if on Roster, if cut before then, the 49ers would save all of his remaining salary of $9.75 Million in 2013 and $8.75 Million in 2014.
For Rogers it is different, of his $5.5 Million 2013 base salary, $1.7 Million is already guaranteed, and like with Smith, His base becomes guaranteed if on roster on April 1st, 2013. And he has $1.25 Million in prorated signing bonus in each year left under contract, which makes it difficult to cut him without designating him for a June 1st cut. If cut with the designation allowed, the 49ers would save around $4.15 Million, and take a cap hit in dead money of $1.25 Million in 2013 and $2.5 Million in 2014. If not, the 49ers would only save $400,000 in cap space if not allowed to designate as June 1st cut.
All in all, it appears we are fine with the salary cap heading forward. We have players on both offense and defense who need extensions, but one thing is certain, we are in good hands with General Manager Trent Baalke, Cap Guru Paraag Marathe. and Head Coach Jim Harbaugh at the helm.
[ Edited by AB83Rules on Nov 14, 2012 at 4:47 PM ]