Wow, I guess I was the only one who saw last night as more encouraging than discouraging. Despite the fact that the # 2 rushing defense in the league knew that our passing game was struggling, they still could not even slow down our run game despite KNOWING what was coming. Alex has thrown too many picks the last 2 games, and this definitely needs to change. But it will. Alex has made 4 bad decisions in the last 2 games against 2 very good pass defenses. That is not an uncommonly high bad decision rate for any QB other than him - it just looks bad when the other team catches every one of them. How quickly do we forget when a QB throws what should be a pick 6 but the defender drops the ball? Answer - immediately, because while it's potentially just as bad, it doesn't hurt your team anymore than any other incomplete pass. Might not be fair, but it's reality.
Yes, his accuracy has also been far worse the last couple of games - but he still has completed 60% of his passes vs the Giants and Hawks. This is too small a sample size to say that he is regressing. Many are saying that defenses have figured out that our pass game is all about throwing it short. It would certainly be strange if that happened right after the Bills game when we threw downfield more than any game in the last several years. There is just a limited # of times that any team is going to throw passes 20 + yards down the field. You are going to have games like Buffalo where every deep pass connects, and you are going to have games like the last couple of weeks where you only connect on one (the Moss bomb in the NYG game). Is there inconsistency? Yes. Is the whole league this way? Yes! The almighty NE offense only scored 18 points vs AZ - in NE. Then produced to pound Buffalo the next week. We did the same thing, just in reverse order. The NFL is fickle, and one or two plays can make a huge difference. If Alex connects on one of the 2 long misses to Kyle last night, he throws for 190 yards 2 TDs and 1 pick against a top defense on a short week. That would be worthy of a nice pat on the back. If he happens to see Randy a little earlier than he did, he throws for 150 yards, 2 TDs and no picks. One play here or there makes a huge difference. Luckily for us he is not as mentally weak as many on this board and kept fighting, completing 7-8 in the second half and helping his team win a game against a good division opponent. Isn't that all that really matters?
I am a little concerned that Alex's confidence may be rattled a little
bit. But one thing you have to say for the kid is that he is mentally tough, and will work very hard to snap out of the slump he is in (again albeit against some very good defenses). And stat wise he will never be a great QB. But we can and will win a lot of games in the regular season and playoffs with him. Because he rarely turns it over and manages the game very well consistently.
The last thing I am going to say is that for however bad he's throwing the ball the last 2 weeks, he has been very good all year at getting us into run plays that are successful audibling at the LOS. Yes, we have a great run-blocking o-line and Gore/Hunter, but Alex is able to check his ego and recognize pre-snap looks that are prone to be gashed in the run game. So for all of you who are so worried that we have been "figured out" - who has stopped our running game so far this year? The Giants didn't - we ran for 4.7 yards per carry in the first half then didn't run again the rest of the game. The Vikings didn't - again we just felt the need to throw the ball a bunch that game. Yes, we do struggle when we pass too much. But I have a simple solution for that - run a lot. Until we don't win a game because the run game is shut down, keeping running the majority of the time. With our backs, o-line and defense we can win it all with Alex at QB, and that is all I care about. And it really should be all any of the rest of you care about too.
[ Edited by bpg4980 on Oct 19, 2012 at 10:35 AM ]