Greg Roman, is he really good?

Originally posted by ElephantHaley:
So you're telling me Seattle's Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate and Zach Miller are more talented then Quan, VD,KW and Baldwin???? Hahaha whatever, if the 49ers and Seachickens traded wrs & TEs all of the sudden Baldwin and Golden Tate would become worthless as 49er wrs because due to the Crap Coaching of the OC and playcalling & design and scheme, JH and GR need to realize this isn't Stanford anymore. I really appreciate what Harbaugh has done to change the culture into a winning culture but Lets get real, the NFL has caught up to the 49ers offenseive playcalling.

I agree with this, other teams routinely do more with less, no team in the NFL does less with more on offense than the 49ers have.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Sheesh, NCommand, one guy got it...you. That is amazing and pretty well confirms what I had long thot. About 95% of people posting pay no attention to what has already been written...proving that sometimes in a conversation, it is nice to give your ears a chance and hear what other folks have been saying.

Sadly, on the WZ, most folks post something without reading what has been written previously. Unfortunately that happens in threads that are lengthy, eg, this one and the Kap thread. It makes for some bizarre comments as well as many people repeating ,exactly what was said just one or two pages back, not to mention 50 or 100 pages back. You sure read before inserting foot as do others we both know...but we are in the huge minority of those that do so.

Just guessing I would bet that is age related, and reading before writing is inversely proportional to age...ie, the older one is the more likely he is to know what the thread has said or reported already. The younger, the less likely. Sigh....

Thanks pas...I think it helps when it's on a topic you are truly passionate about (our offense) and even more so, to have posters such as thl408 to provide a slightly different perspective to ensure all bases are covered. It doesn't take long to weed out those who do their homework and those who just spin off a media-talking-head's opinion.

The truth is, we are all speculating to the best of our ability (what IS this offense, is it truly a college AR offense, are their real progression timing reads built in, etc.). I think what REALLY makes this topic hot is the fact that nobody knows what the heck it is. If it was a WCO it would be easy to see where we need to improve and what timeframe we can expect "mastery." In short, we'd have more realistic perspectives and probably, most of us would be on the exact same page. There would probably be more focus on obtaining the proper personnel to run a WCO, we'd focus in on foot work, timing routes, high-to-low progression, etc.

But this? Add in that people still struggle bringing the SD & Stanford perspective to the table to help us at least "gauge" where we should be at now...then Roman goes and adds Q formations on top of it. Once you factor in that abot 6 different people have input into the final game plan as well as play calling ON game days, it's even harder to pin point why we're 32nd. The patterns are glaring. That's what worries me the most. I want to believe this is an offense that is ahead of the game and our players will progressively get better and better in it over time. But...

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:
I agree with this, other teams routinely do more with less, no team in the NFL does less with more on offense than the 49ers have.

Ain't that the truth...particularly this year.

Just rereading this last page, is a veritable indictment of pizz poor OC calls, and worse yet, pizzer poorer game plan. If, IF Command and Thl are correct in their reading of what is( or rather is not )going on with the OC calls, then this is an indictment of incredible ineptitude and flat azz failure on the part of our very offensive OC. Based on what you all have written, here and before, roman should have been fired long ago. What a cruel joke he was extended for 2 yrs...it is hard to believe a football man as smart as JH has tied his own reputation to a one trick pony, and the read option/pistol died last yr once DC's saw it and defended it. Hell, I have been writing about this since last yr.

Now, if we had the top 5 WRs in the league, roman would still be targeting just one, or on rare occasions two. The pure nonsense of this screams for this lame to be schidt canned and today would be a great day to start. Anybody really think JH isn't more adept at OC and game planning than the man with a one track mind? Man, I don't. Roman has repeatedly shown us he can't chew gum and call an O play at the same time. With that said, what in the world is jimbo doing keeping roman around? For the life of me, I cannot understand how a professional coach could do that unless he is afraid to make any changes...yet last yr he fired alex in midseason and went with the inexperienced but more athletic kap.

I have no idea what it takes to get roman fired, or released, but if the current OC calls and game plan aren't changed drastically,(and I cannot conceive of roman doing that), then we are doomed to fail with SB caliber talent. Is it necessary for Jed to tell Jimbo that either he fires roman or JH is gone too? I don't know, but do wonder just exactly what it will take to undo the damage roman has done to date. And where is Trent in this? Jim, and roman are after all, hired by him. Is someone going to say that Trent doesn't see what a hash of our O roman has made? Jeez, trent has had the talent here, but using one WR at a time per play sure is a krappy way to use them.

And please, nobody remind me of our 30 wins to date since jim and roman arrived. It is the ones we DIDN'T win that matter...especially after being so damned close.

NC, a thot did come to mind why roman has been kept around. This is a bit bizarre, but could roman have made this so damn difficult to understand so that JH HAS TO KEEP HIM around? Like I said, I dunno, but that might explain it. Might.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:

Is it necessary for Jed to tell Jimbo that either he fires roman or JH is gone too? I don't know, but do wonder just exactly what it will take to undo the damage roman has done to date.

and this is why I see a MAJOR dispute coming in the offseason. I don't Jed can afford to stay with Roman. Will be interesting to see Harbaugh's reaction.

Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
NC, a thot did come to mind why roman has been kept around. This is a bit bizarre, but could roman have made this so damn difficult to understand so that JH HAS TO KEEP HIM around? Like I said, I dunno, but that might explain it. Might.

Well, that's an interesting theory. Let's be honest, Roman was a running game coordinator and their song-and-dance worked pretty well at SD and Stanford with what I am assuming, top-notch talent. But it's still college. These weren't professionals where even the weakest team in the NFL can beat the best on "any given Sunday." Without a doubt, the smoke screen is over; the jumbo formations, huge # of personnel packages, 1-second-to-go snaps, pre-snap shifts and motions, the QB used as a RB, etc. It's over. It's not working. In fact, it's moving even MORE defenders into the box.

I think Jim, "may" perhaps be in a position he's never been in...he not only has to look at his #32 ranked offense but he has to look at Roman...and Mangini...and Jeep...and even himself. He needs to look at the foundation of this offense and wonder if it can not only achieve a very high level of success but maintain that success over time; that it CAN get better and better and better (and be adaptive to today's NFL defenses).

And if the reports are true internally, that Harbaugh is driving the FO mad, perhaps this is why...loyalty (and vision). After all, this IS the type of offense he subscribes too and even signs off on every Sunday. And he himself was a QB in the NFL himself. Was his offense the same back then? His Bo Schembechler subscription is well documented. This type of offense may be so firmly ingrained in his makeup now, it's hard to see anything else esp. with the "success" we've had with it.

In the end, he "may" have to go the way of his brother John and ultimately, scrap his own mindset and turn it over to a professional and proven OC. The good news is that he isn't afraid of change IF he believes it's the right thing to do (i.e. CK from Alex). But then again, CK was his man...and so is Roman.

So, IS it the right thing to do...now? After this w/e if we lose and the game planning and play calling was a big part of the loss? After the season is over?

Here is a little more (objective) evidence of issues with the AR passing foundation, play calling and CK's issues within it thus far:

This one plays off my two-years of noting the lack of success we have had on first downs (4+ yards - This allows you to open up your playbook on 2nd down). Now I let PFF do all of the work! LOL
"Last season, the 49ers had a 60.3-percent success rate using two backs and two tight ends (or 22 personnel) on first downs, according to the research of Jeff Deeney, analyst for Pro Football Focus. Success on first down is defined as a gain of more than 3 yards. This season, the 49ers' success rate on first down is just 44.7 percent. In the team's 23-20 loss to the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, the 49ers routinely found themselves in second-and-long situations after using "22" personnel on 14 of their 22 first-down plays." ~ Read more at http://www.csnbayarea.com/49ers/49ers-offense-not-experiencing-catch-22

And...

Not exactly getting everyone involved or your QB in a rhythm. The nice YPA is misleading d/t the stat noted above. When you're constantly in 2nd and 10+'s, you HAVE to throw farther to keep the chains moving:
154 – Passing yards per game by San Francisco's Colin Kaepernick since Week 2, the NFL's lowest average among qualified quarterbacks, according to ESPN Stats & Info.

And...

Some blame-the-QB talk to be fair (truth, but let's not forget WHY he's only looking one direction and to the AR and then taking off running to begin with):
– "He is not playing like a rookie – he's playing worse."
– "When Colin Kaepernick was asked to do anything besides "the gimme throws", it got just plain ugly."
– "Kaepernick has a terrible tendency to only look in one direction if he likes his pre-snap read, regardless of how covered his target happens to be or how uncovered other receivers are in other parts of the field."
– "If either Boldin or Vernon Davis were immediately covered off the snap, nobody else existed in Colin Kaepernick's world. Kyle Williams should have had a gigantic night, but Kaepernick's poor vision and panicked decision-making would only produce three points in the entire game."
– "Yeah, I said it. Colin Kaepernick is a game manager, albeit one that runs like a gazelle and has a rocket arm."
– "He has a horrible habit of seeing ghosts in the pocket and inexplicably scrambling or taking his eyes off his receivers at the first whiff of pressure, even if that pressure is imaginary. It's like he's taking crazy pills." Read more at http://www.bayareasportsguy.com/houston-texans-battle-red-blog-something-is-seriously-wrong-with-colin-kaepernick/

And...

If Boldin or tight end Vernon Davis are covered, Kaepernick has failed to show the ability to move into the 2nd or 3rd read to spot another receiver such as Jon Baldwin or Kyle Williams this season. It's like Kaepernick has no confidence in that receiver or a particular running back, so he won't even bother throwing to them if he finds his primary target covered. What we've seen on many occasions this season is Kaepernick looking at his first read and if that guy is covered, he takes off running or he tries to force the ball to him anyway rather than looking at his other receiver. Read more at http://www.sportstalk200.com/nfl-news/colin-kaepernick-is-a-one-read-quarterback/2013/#cL2BXtmK5pqL7w68.99

And if you made it this far, check this out...this is the blue print for how DC's take the AR away while stopping Gore and pressuring CK to stay within the pocket. BTW: Look how wide open the short game is on many of these plays. When facing a defense that CLEARLY is taking your AR away, you must scheme to the others and the "others" were open a ton. http://www.ninersnation.com/2013/11/14/5100210/all-22-breakdown-of-the-49ers-inept-passing-offense

Thanks for posting that NC. I feel all of that talk regarding how Kap has tunnel vision forms the theory that HaRo dialed back the playbook in order to get results from the passing game this season. There are several reasons I see for dialing back the playbook and calling more plays where the primary target is pre-determined when the huddle breaks (AR). Kap has tunnel vision and is unable to quickly determine when a read is NOT open. I've mentioned this a few times, but he takes too long to move off of a read. It's like he has to take a second look just to make sure the WR is covered. So HaRo does what I feel is the right thing to win games. They start calling more college type passing plays where the target is determined for Kap. I saw this mostly in the middle portion of the season. Once teams caught on and started to mix coverages, those plays were not as effective and the onus was on Kap to make the reads at the line of scrimmage. He showed that he struggles with this versus good defenses.

I feel the whole AR concept is real, but does not occur in the 49er offense as frequent as you may think, NC. And I really doubt that HaRo's offense is predicated around this AR concept. Like you've stated, that is truly a college theme and would not fly in the NFL. If you recall Harbaugh's video clip where he talks about quarterbacking, he clearly refers to progression reads and how footwork will take you to your target. This is the proof I need to know that Harbaugh understands the importance of a true progression based passing attack, not a college type AR offense. This AR stuff was the hand holding I refer to, riding with training wheels on in order to win games.

Going back to the pass distribution for 2012, I don't think it's correct to look at the final 2012 stats (16 games) to get a sense of how the pass distribution should look in this offense. My claim was that the top heavy pass distribution is due to Kap and how he heavily favors certain targets, not due to how Harbaugh envisions this passing attack to be. Kap ruins the validity of the 2012 end of year stats by becoming the starter in game #10. When Smith was playing the first 8 games of the season (games he played start to finish) the pass distribution was not top heavy like when Kap is the quarterback. Here is a breakdown of how the 2012 pass distribution looked at the end of game #8 (Smith was injured in game #9 so I did not use that STL game):

Crabs: 39
Ham: 28
Davis: 20
Gore: 16
Moss: 13
Williams: 10
Walker:7
Hunter: 7
Miller: 2
Celek: 2
Ginn: 1
That's a nice distribution of completions in an offense. I understand targets might be a better stat to use as opposed to receptions, but perhaps we can dive into that later if needed. Below is the current catch distribution for this season (through 12 games):

Boldin: 61
Davis: 42
Miller: 18
Gore: 15
etc....

So this is comparing when Smith had a full offseason to prepare as the starter versus Kap as a full season to prepare as a starter. It's not the offense that causes this whacked out pass distribution, it's the QB.

Here's the video I'm referring to, we've all seen it. Jump to 35:45. He speaks about progressions, throwing to the #1, #2, or #3 WR. This is all anti-AR stuff.

Originally posted by Phoenix49ers:

Originally posted by ElephantHaley:
So you're telling me Seattle's Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate and Zach Miller are more talented then Quan, VD,KW and Baldwin???? Hahaha whatever, if the 49ers and Seachickens traded wrs & TEs all of the sudden Baldwin and Golden Tate would become worthless as 49er wrs because due to the Crap Coaching of the OC and playcalling & design and scheme, JH and GR need to realize this isn't Stanford anymore. I really appreciate what Harbaugh has done to change the culture into a winning culture but Lets get real, the NFL has caught up to the 49ers offenseive playcalling.

I agree with this, other teams routinely do more with less, no team in the NFL does less with more on offense than the 49ers have.

Agree to an extent, but let's be honest here. We have no idea what Baldwin or Tate would do as 49ers, so let's not go there. I can turn around and say the same thing about KW and Baldwin very easily. Put them in Seahawks jersey's and they won't produce s**t.

I agree Boldin and VD are better than the Seahawks two best pass catchers, but the Hawks had better depth to spread the field. Maybe that will change now that we have Crab, Ham, and Patton back. KW and Baldwin are not even worth mentioning. They are scrubs and always will be scrubs. I don't blame the coaches for cutting one, and keeping the other off the field.

The depth we were supposed to have has returned. If we continue to trot out 1 WR sets 25% of the time like we have been with all these receivers, then I will officially hop on the fire Greg Roman bandwagon. But until then, I want to see how this offense functions the way it was intended to be when healthy.

Originally posted by thl408:
Thanks for posting that NC. I feel all of that talk regarding how Kap has tunnel vision forms the theory that HaRo dialed back the playbook in order to get results from the passing game this season. There are several reasons I see for dialing back the playbook and calling more plays where the primary target is pre-determined when the huddle breaks (AR). Kap has tunnel vision and is unable to quickly determine when a read is NOT open. I've mentioned this a few times, but he takes too long to move off of a read. It's like he has to take a second look just to make sure the WR is covered. So HaRo does what I feel is the right thing to win games. They start calling more college type passing plays where the target is determined for Kap. I saw this mostly in the middle portion of the season. Once teams caught on and started to mix coverages, those plays were not as effective and the onus was on Kap to make the reads at the line of scrimmage. He showed that he struggles with this versus good defenses.

I feel the whole AR concept is real, but does not occur in the 49er offense as frequent as you may think, NC. And I really doubt that HaRo's offense is predicated around this AR concept. Like you've stated, that is truly a college theme and would not fly in the NFL. If you recall Harbaugh's video clip where he talks about quarterbacking, he clearly refers to progression reads and how footwork will take you to your target. This is the proof I need to know that Harbaugh understands the importance of a true progression based passing attack, not a college type AR offense. This AR stuff was the hand holding I refer to, riding with training wheels on in order to win games.

Going back to the pass distribution for 2012, I don't think it's correct to look at the final 2012 stats (16 games) to get a sense of how the pass distribution should look in this offense. My claim was that the top heavy pass distribution is due to Kap and how he heavily favors certain targets, not due to how Harbaugh envisions this passing attack to be. Kap ruins the validity of the 2012 end of year stats by becoming the starter in game #10. When Smith was playing the first 8 games of the season (games he played start to finish) the pass distribution was not top heavy like when Kap is the quarterback. Here is a breakdown of how the 2012 pass distribution looked at the end of game #8 (Smith was injured in game #9 so I did not use that STL game):

Crabs: 39
Ham: 28
Davis: 20
Gore: 16
Moss: 13
Williams: 10
Walker:7
Hunter: 7
Miller: 2
Celek: 2
Ginn: 1
That's a nice distribution of completions in an offense. I understand targets might be a better stat to use as opposed to receptions, but perhaps we can dive into that later if needed. Below is the current catch distribution for this season (through 12 games):

Boldin: 61
Davis: 42
Miller: 18
Gore: 15
etc....

So this is comparing when Smith had a full offseason to prepare as the starter versus Kap as a full season to prepare as a starter. It's not the offense that causes this whacked out pass distribution, it's the QB.

Here's the video I'm referring to, we've all seen it. Jump to 35:45. He speaks about progressions, throwing to the #1, #2, or #3 WR. This is all anti-AR stuff.

And you even added a video! Good stuff, my friend.

I think I like that distribution much better under Alex but this also makes much more sense. That is certainly one of his Alex's strengths. But now go one more step further. That's ONLY 4 catches a game for your leader. That, to me, is philosophy. It's jumped up to 5 under CK. But like you noted this could be proof that we in fact have more progression reads built into our primary passing game. That and the video does give me hope (that at least Harbaugh gets it).

But I'll tell you what, I'll hold reservation on the AR passing game and start anew from last game (with a "full arsenal"). If the coaches truly are emphasizing the passing game more b/c Crabtree and Manningham are back (they trust them), let's watch closely the formations and CK's head angle and whether or not those passes are made under 3 seconds (only time for one read). If we are still seeing the pre-determined AR1 and AR2 plays over the next 4 games, we should probably be alarmed. I'll need your help as the game isn't on TV (again).

At the end of the day, I'm like you, I want an offense predicated on the QB standing tall in the pocket and properly reading through his progressions and pulling the trigger...and if pressured, buying time and ad lib properly/effectively whether that's with his throws or legs. Trust in Crabtree/Manningham will certainly help in this fashion. That too should reflect in the overall passing game.

Thanks again!

Pleasure is all mine, NC. Like you said, I can do this all day, if only I could.

Originally posted by thl408:
Pleasure is all mine, NC. Like you said, I can do this all day, if only I could.

Hahaha...same here!

Originally posted by thl408:
Going back to the pass distribution for 2012, I don't think it's correct to look at the final 2012 stats (16 games) to get a sense of how the pass distribution should look in this offense. My claim was that the top heavy pass distribution is due to Kap and how he heavily favors certain targets, not due to how Harbaugh envisions this passing attack to be. Kap ruins the validity of the 2012 end of year stats by becoming the starter in game #10. When Smith was playing the first 8 games of the season (games he played start to finish) the pass distribution was not top heavy like when Kap is the quarterback. Here is a breakdown of how the 2012 pass distribution looked at the end of game #8 (Smith was injured in game #9 so I did not use that STL game):

Crabs: 39
Ham: 28
Davis: 20
Gore: 16
Moss: 13
Williams: 10
Walker:7
Hunter: 7
Miller: 2
Celek: 2
Ginn: 1
That's a nice distribution of completions in an offense. I understand targets might be a better stat to use as opposed to receptions, but perhaps we can dive into that later if needed. Below is the current catch distribution for this season (through 12 games):

Boldin: 61
Davis: 42
Miller: 18
Gore: 15
etc....

So this is comparing when Smith had a full offseason to prepare as the starter versus Kap as a full season to prepare as a starter. It's not the offense that causes this whacked out pass distribution, it's the QB.

Great post, man. Wanted to focus on the pass distribution part real quick.

Since we're tracking pass catches with Kap at QB, I though it would be a good idea to look at his 10 starts from last year:

Crabtree 61
Davis 24
Moss 20
Walker 19
Manningham 13
Gore 11
Miller 10

No surprise at this point. You've already pointed out the offenses propensity to focus heavily on a primary target ever since Kap took over.

BUT, I think the biggest difference this year compared to last is the 3rd, 4th, and 5th leading receivers. Look who it was last year -- Moss, Walker, and Manningham. 2 WRs and a TE. Those guys offer big play ability.

Now look at this year:

Boldin: 61
Davis: 42
Miller: 18
Gore: 15

This year, our 3rd and 4th leading receivers are Miller and Gore...a FB and a RB. Last year they were 6th and 7th.

The big problem to me hasn't necessarily been focusing on primary targets. Ball distribution is good, but it's also KEY to get your best players the ball more often. The bigger problem for me is DEPTH. There was none this year outside of Boldin and VD.

Now that we have Crab and Manningham back, I still expect the focus to be on getting our playmakers the ball. But just having more quality players out there will make things much easier, and I expect a few more passes to be filtered to the 2nd and 3rd WRs.

^^^ SofaKing,

Good observation. Do you think this distribution to the playmakers will be sufficient enough to disallow good defenses to key in one or two main AR's? My personal concern thus far has not been establishing (or developing) other weapons outside of the obvious (Boldin & VD) and what happens to our entire offense when they are shut down. Like the article focused on, Carolina layed out the blue-print for completely shutting us down (although it's no secret...it's more of whether or not you have the personnel to do it). The other concern I have is that the main (leading) AR is only getting 5 catches a game. That doesn't exactly leave much room for others to contribute enough on film for DC's to seriously have to account for on any level. With next to nothing in the short passing and outlet game, how is this offense going to respond when Crabtree, VD and Boldin have their hands full a good portion of the game...against playoff caliber teams?