Greg Roman, is he really good?

The more I watch the gif, the more comfortable I am with the Kap's decision. For all of the commentary on Kap pre-determining the throw and Sherman's play on the ball, the real reason this turned into an interception is the play Seattle's Malcolm Smith makes from his zone coverage. When the RB pauses to check for blitz pick-up, Smith drops into his zone and then runs to the corner because the RB doesn't get out into his zone to hold him there. If the RB gets farther into his pattern and/or Smith doesn't bail and run to the ball, its either a TD or an incomplete pass and the 49ers go to 2nd down.

Seeing it from that angle, Kap made the right play and made a decent, though not perfect throw. Smith just made a better hustle play.

Originally posted by jonesadrian:
was he wide open at the time of the throw? no.
there was a safety over the top waiting.
so no boldin was not wide open. he was covered beneath and over the top the safety moved once the ball was in the air
and before the almighty pump fake is brought up. he pump fakes he's getting sacked.
he throws that ball early as the 1st read that's an even easier interception.

WRONG!! Earl Thomas started sliding his zone into the middle BEFORE Boldin reached the 10 yardline. That's before he released the ball.

Originally posted by lamontb:
Yea Boldin was wide open only b/c the safety was reading CK's eyes and was already moving to the side of the field with Crabtree, Not sure that window would still be open if CK scanned the whole field b/c that safety would have slid over some. Now Patton was wide open and would have picked up 8 to 10 yards and could have easliy got out of bounds. Or broke a tackle and really made something special happen.

This!! Just as I told jonesadrian. They were in zone coverage and everyone was reading Kap's eyes. They tend to never lead the defense wrong.

Originally posted by thl408:

Originally posted by GameOver:
thl408, please do give us some of your analysis of the game once the coach's film comes out (in a new thread, of course). Would greatly appreciate it.

Also, is jonnydel MIA? Haven't seen him in a while...hope his father's okay

I haven't re-watched the entire game yet since it seems like watching a Titanic documentary - you know it's going to end badly. If jonnydel starts it, I'll continue to be the Robin to his Batman skills.

I understand...but we need you dude

We need you.

Originally posted by Puckdaddy:

Originally posted by jonesadrian:
was he wide open at the time of the throw? no.
there was a safety over the top waiting.
so no boldin was not wide open. he was covered beneath and over the top the safety moved once the ball was in the air
and before the almighty pump fake is brought up. he pump fakes he's getting sacked.
he throws that ball early as the 1st read that's an even easier interception.

WRONG!! Earl Thomas started sliding his zone into the middle BEFORE Boldin reached the 10 yardline. That's before he released the ball.

Lol, he's reading his eyes. CK isn't even looking anywhere but at Crabtree. C'mon man. Thomas goes underneath Boldin for a pick if he comes back to that read.

It wasn't a bad decision. If anything, a little *bit* of an under throw. Sherman makes a great play and the LB is just hustling down. Unfortunate for us.

You can analyze forever but it's not gonna change what happened!

Originally posted by thl408:
Crabs was running a fade. A streak/fly/go is straight up the field. On a fade, the WR must establish an outside release while winning as much room as possible between himself and the near sideline. He uses his body to shield the CB away from where the ball is supposed to go, towards the outside shoulder (corner of endzone). Once the ball is in the air, the WR adjusts to the throw while keeping the CB away from where the ball will land. Crabs loses on the route as Sherman pushes him very close to the sideline while also winning body position.

I'd assume that the rule of go-routes applies to fades as well, where you shouldn't throw it if the corner is over the top of the receiver. The pre-snap I didn't have a problem with (locate Thomas and check his coverage just off the snap), but there was still the post-snap part of the read Kaepernick failed on (Sherman's position relative to Crabtree) as you touched upon in another post.

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by Geeked:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by theduke85:

Originally posted by NCommand:

Originally posted by theduke85:
What does "AR" mean, NCommand?

Term coined a while back where plays are called in by Roman and company (5 others) and signed off by Harbaugh into CK. AR stands for Annointed Receiver. This AR is pre-determined "pre snap." There are two types...AR1 is where the non-AR's run "decoy" routes clearing space for the AR. AR2's are when the non-AR's physically "rub" or literally, "block" out defenders creating a sure path for the AR. It's essentially, a college-like offense leaving added focus on "execution" by all to help make the play work. It requires NO breaks in the chain or the entire play blows up. It's nice when the design works and it limits the focus for a young QB on one read only. But the downside is what we just saw (aside from lack of QB development in progression reads). If the defense is smart they can figure out the AR by the routes of the non-AR's (Green Bay INT) or hone in on the primary AR's (like Boldin/VD most of the year or in this case, Crabtree in the RZ where Seattle had underneath and blanket coverage). DB's can watch the body language of CK, his eyes and if they are an aggressive, physical defense like the Ravens and Seattle, they can blow the entire play up from the line of scrimmage and force CK to ad lib more (run or throw on the run). Once Crabtree came back, it was much harder for defenses to determine who the AR would be though (Crabtree, Boldin or VD). This style of offense works much better with an athletic QB b/c if that AR is covered at 3 seconds, he can scramble and make something happen with his legs like we saw against Seattle/Carolina. With Crabtree back, we've become a much better ad lib team as well. In fact, ad libs plays may have been our most successful plays since Crabtree came back esp. re: TD's.

Wow, tremendous write-up -- thank you very much. Great info.

You're very welcome!

Thank you for this, great fill in.

As I was reading I couldn't help but reflect on Keap at Nevada (I went to Fresno State and USC). From what I recall, Keap never ran a true AR type scheme. He did play out of the pistol and did the whole read option. But there were plenty of times he dropped back and progressed through options.

It seems a tad misguided to design a "dumb" down read offense for a guy over an offense he's run in college. If your going to change things up for a new QB, than change it up to suite what the QB is comfortable.

At the end, I think Roman is running the offense he's most familiar; depending on flawless execution rather than creativity or strategic playcalling.

Agreed esp. with the bolded.

Yeah, going from college to a WCO full time might be a nightmare for him d/t mechanics, under center, timing routes, ALL of the built in progressions in sync with his drop backs, checks, etc. It seemed to me that CK felt most comfortable when in shot gun and we ran a more pro-style spread look with 3, 4 and even 5 WR's all running routes and it was on CK to scan the field and just pick the best option (ala Brady) rather than high-low concepts. Scheming an AR open is a "control" and "safe" thing for HaRoMan. All teams do it (even Alex incorporated the AR2 over in KC with a wrinkle added to it) but not as a foundation or base save for in college. We have noted more PS plays called since Crabtree came back and thl408 noted the distribution of receivers used when Alex was here so...?

What do other's think as to what would fit CK and all these weapons?

Great insight NC & Geeked. It's sad to think Kap has to wear a wristband and get plays called into him by HaRoMan to run an AR system. You don't really need coaching and play designs for an AR system. I bet Kap would be more effective without any plays called in from HaRoMan with a simple passing route tree playing sandlot football.

People suggest here that Kap can't run progressions, but Geeked tells me he was fine running progressions in college? Kap has the same wonderlic (37) as Andrew Luck and higher than Russell Wilson (28). The Kap bashers who complain about receivers being open and progressions better starting looking at HaRoMan and understand what kind of system is in place. It definitely ain't the WCO. HaRoMan is good at power-run schemes, but their passing schemes are third-rate. Roman's has got to go (or relegated to an offensive assistant to the run game). Geep Chryst has got to go.

Man everyday since we lost I've been waiting for a breaking news that he is leaving to be a head coach or he was let go. Come on Harbaugh! Make it happen!

Definitely need to hire a new OC; or at least an experienced offensive asst (eg Shannahan) who can counter what the defense is doing. eg, If they have 8 in the box, make the pass game work. Get the RB and TE more involved. Spread the ball around.
Player Catches
Vernon Davis 52 Under utilized
Frank Gore 16 Under-utilized
Vance McDonald 8 Under-utilized
Jon Baldwin 3 Under-utilized
Garrett Celek 2 Under-utilized
LaMichael James 2 Under-utilized
Kendall Hunter 2 Under-utilized

Originally posted by NinerGM:

I agree with everyone ....

Boldin wasn't open. Patton was.

But this is my problem with this offense. I think its been maxed. This is it. I know people are going to disagree but until I see something different, I think this is it.

Yeah, I blame the interception on Kap, but I think his coaching sucks. I've been very disappointed with Harbaughs (read Roman and Geeps) coaching of Kap has been this season.

Regression.

Your QB is telling me he's going to A particular receiver regardless of coverage. He clearly hates throwing to new targets like Patton and others because he doesn't even see Patton stop and become open.

Regression.

Anthony Davis was getting beat all game and was getting beat horribly on this play. The scheme didn't even keep a RB in to block, and help. That's crappy coaching.

Regression.

Running game.... nuff said.

Regression.

The offense regressed this year and it wasn't all due to injury or just to Kap being a Tyoung QB. I don't know folks, to quote the coach - if you're not getting better you're getting worse. Teams just know what to expect. They're not scared. Yeah we're going to win most games because we have overwhelming talent in the trenches. No matter how fast a "deep threat" receiver could have been, it doesn't account for Davis getting beat over and over and we not do anything over and over.

Regression.

I'm sorry but until there are changes to the coaching philosophy, I have NO FAITH that this team will be able to get past this point in the season regardless of talent. The team will routinely get out-coached.

Regression.

So do you fire Harbs?

Originally posted by jreff22:

Originally posted by NinerGM:
I agree with everyone ....

Boldin wasn't open. Patton was.

But this is my problem with this offense. I think its been maxed. This is it. I know people are going to disagree but until I see something different, I think this is it.

Yeah, I blame the interception on Kap, but I think his coaching sucks. I've been very disappointed with Harbaughs (read Roman and Geeps) coaching of Kap has been this season.

Regression.

Your QB is telling me he's going to A particular receiver regardless of coverage. He clearly hates throwing to new targets like Patton and others because he doesn't even see Patton stop and become open.

Regression.

Anthony Davis was getting beat all game and was getting beat horribly on this play. The scheme didn't even keep a RB in to block, and help. That's crappy coaching.

Regression.

Running game.... nuff said.

Regression.

The offense regressed this year and it wasn't all due to injury or just to Kap being a Tyoung QB. I don't know folks, to quote the coach - if you're not getting better you're getting worse. Teams just know what to expect. They're not scared. Yeah we're going to win most games because we have overwhelming talent in the trenches. No matter how fast a "deep threat" receiver could have been, it doesn't account for Davis getting beat over and over and we not do anything over and over.

Regression.

I'm sorry but until there are changes to the coaching philosophy, I have NO FAITH that this team will be able to get past this point in the season regardless of talent. The team will routinely get out-coached.

Regression.

So do you fire Harbs?

Fact is; everything regresses when the defense knows what's coming. This amplifies when you face the master of halftime adjustments (Pete Carroll).

Reports have Geep Chryst pegged as OC and Mangini as QB coach if Roman gets a HC job somewhere. Is this just honestly planning on our part incase Roman does leave? I don't think stuff like this is released just for the sake of showing our cards, there has to be a reason for it. I have to wonder if Harbaugh is leaning towards making the change regardless of Roman's decision. Harbaugh tends to play things close to the vest so announcing that he already has replacements in place is odd. Maybe its his way of pushing Roman towards the Cleveland job?

Originally posted by AZ9erfan520:
Reports have Geep Chryst pegged as OC and Mangini as QB coach if Roman gets a HC job somewhere. Is this just honestly planning on our part incase Roman does leave? I don't think stuff like this is released just for the sake of showing our cards, there has to be a reason for it. I have to wonder if Harbaugh is leaning towards making the change regardless of Roman's decision. Harbaugh tends to play things close to the vest so announcing that he already has replacements in place is odd. Maybe its his way of pushing Roman towards the Cleveland job?

You may be on to something. You know, there was a point earlier in the season where I saw Harbough a lot more active reviewing the play sheet and sending things in. Coincidentally, it appeared that the offence was a bit more productive. Things changed roughly after the second Seattle game, and, the offense started to look the same again.

Maybe I'm just seeing things but maybe I'm not.

I can't imagine the front office feeling a whole lot different than the fan base on this one.

Originally posted by NinerGM:
jeff22

I don't think Harbaugh is the QB whisperer anymore. That's clear to me. Here's the problem I see coming ... as the salary cap and age takes its toll, the team will almost certainly become less talented. We know we have a very basic offensive scheme. Once the talent level starts to decline, running the Stanford offense just isn't going to win you 10 - 12 games anymore.

The clock is ticking. I think the Harbs is great now but each year he inexplicably unties himself with an offense that continues to be stuffed, relies on a ridiculously talented defense this will ultimately start to decline also, the criticism will grow. My thoughts? Change now while it's easy to do so. Even considering the idea of appointing Mangini as a QB coach raised a LOT of eyebrows - especially for a former HC who could do nothing with Cleveland and isn't known for being a QB coach, and putting him in charge of the development of your struggling, non-traditional QB should say something.

I don't know anymore. All I do know that just because you've had 3 years of winning doesn't mean you'll have 3 more years.

There are a lot of warning signs.

Agreed, the patterns are VERY clear now after three years and under two different extreme QB's and outstanding talent and depth across the board...much in it's prime. As a fan, as a GM or as an owner, what more evidence do you need by now to convince you that this is NOT the right offensive system/philosophy to bring home #6?

It's interesting to note that everyone continues to focus on the surface...the execution of the play, when in fact Harbaugh himself said the play was determined pre-snap. It was the CALL that was poor, IMHO. CK and Crabtree did what they could and came within inches of completing it yet the issue is that this call and route is a VERY low % play against one of the best CB's in the game to a spot (corner of the EZ) requiring a 35 yard pinpoint accurate pass at the wrong time of the game. Even if you watch Crabtree's feet, had he caught the ball, he was BARELY in bounds. Barely. We talked all year about situational play calling and awareness. This is not the time to run a flood to the left to isolate Crabtree outside on the right and hope he can beat Sherman on a low % pass-catch in the EZ. And given Harbaugh's comments, he signed off on it.