Originally posted by thl408:
NinersGM, I somewhat agree with you that the 49ers won't know what they have if they don't play, and throw to those players (Vance, Baldwin, LMJ). But I posed the hypothesis that it is Kap who is the main factor when it comes to not throwing to different WRs.
I posted this in post #1509 of this thread, but wanted to bring it up to address the issue of unbalanced reception distribution.
Going back to the pass distribution for 2012, I don't think it's correct to look at the final 2012 stats (16 games) to get a sense of how the pass distribution should look in this offense. My claim was that the top heavy pass distribution is due to Kap and how he heavily favors certain targets, not due to how Harbaugh envisions this passing attack to be. Kap ruins the validity of the 2012 end of year stats by becoming the starter in game #10. When Smith was playing the first 8 games of the season (games he played start to finish) the pass distribution was not top heavy like when Kap is the quarterback. Here is a breakdown of how the 2012 pass distribution looked at the end of game #8 (Smith was injured in game #9 so I did not use that STL game):
That's a nice distribution of completions in an offense. I understand targets might be a better stat to use as opposed to receptions, but perhaps we can dive into that later if needed. Below is the current catch distribution for this season (through 12 games):
Read more at http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/168162-greg-roman-really-good/page101/#eqh6aiWM5zw60q5m.99
So I used the stats from the 2012 games 1-8 when AS played from start to finish. 2011's offseason/training camp was cut short due to the lockout and didn't allow coaching staffs to implement a new offense, so I omitted 2011.
thl408, thanks for reiterating this one b/c it's important. It's in line with your original theory that perhaps, Roman pulled back the reigns significantly on CK and made the passing game even easier to execute with the AR "manufacturing" passing attack which is what Gruden/Tirico/Silver/Dilfer all alluded to this past week alone (see, even as fans, we're way ahead of the game!). More importantly your distribution list helps demonstrate that with a much more experienced QB, there IS freedom built in to HaRoMan's system to take advantage of other, less targeted AR's or we ran more PS passing plays which independently, gives the QB more freedom. Granted, Alex had a more conservative "check down mentality" but it's still a fair point.
To be fair, I don't have access to any more of the 2012 games (DVR deletions) so I was wondering if anyone still had access and could review the offense objectively under Alex's first full eight games. I was wondering the following 1) Was it the same predominant AR "manufacturing" passing attack (but Roman called more for others in the game plan) and if so 2) Was it more effective for VD and Crabtree (AR's) and the aforementioned list of others in your distribution b/c of the Moss and Walker-decoy effects or 3) HaRoMan called many more PS passing plays b/c they trusted Alex much more to not only recognize the defensive coverages but that he'd hit the proper matchups and not turn the ball over.
This small amount of research would do wonders for helping us determine not only what the true foundation of our passing game is (predominant AR or PS or an even mix) but what to expect once CK becomes more experienced and a true veteran of reading defenses and this offensive playbook, in particular.
Does anyone have this information and is willing to put in the time to review those eight games?
[ Edited by NCommand on Dec 23, 2013 at 9:45 AM ]