There are 166 users in the forums

Remember
Not a member? Register Now!

Greg Roman, is he really good?

dbl
[ Edited by NCommand on Dec 23, 2013 at 9:42 AM ]
Originally posted by thl408:
NinersGM, I somewhat agree with you that the 49ers won't know what they have if they don't play, and throw to those players (Vance, Baldwin, LMJ). But I posed the hypothesis that it is Kap who is the main factor when it comes to not throwing to different WRs.

I posted this in post #1509 of this thread, but wanted to bring it up to address the issue of unbalanced reception distribution.

…..
Going back to the pass distribution for 2012, I don't think it's correct to look at the final 2012 stats (16 games) to get a sense of how the pass distribution should look in this offense. My claim was that the top heavy pass distribution is due to Kap and how he heavily favors certain targets, not due to how Harbaugh envisions this passing attack to be. Kap ruins the validity of the 2012 end of year stats by becoming the starter in game #10. When Smith was playing the first 8 games of the season (games he played start to finish) the pass distribution was not top heavy like when Kap is the quarterback. Here is a breakdown of how the 2012 pass distribution looked at the end of game #8 (Smith was injured in game #9 so I did not use that STL game):

Crabs: 39
Ham: 28
Davis: 20
Gore: 16
Moss: 13
Williams: 10
Walker:7
Hunter: 7
Miller: 2
Celek: 2
Ginn: 1
That's a nice distribution of completions in an offense. I understand targets might be a better stat to use as opposed to receptions, but perhaps we can dive into that later if needed. Below is the current catch distribution for this season (through 12 games):

Boldin: 61
Davis: 42
Miller: 18
Gore: 15
etc....
Read more at http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/168162-greg-roman-really-good/page101/#eqh6aiWM5zw60q5m.99

So I used the stats from the 2012 games 1-8 when AS played from start to finish. 2011's offseason/training camp was cut short due to the lockout and didn't allow coaching staffs to implement a new offense, so I omitted 2011.

thl408, thanks for reiterating this one b/c it's important. It's in line with your original theory that perhaps, Roman pulled back the reigns significantly on CK and made the passing game even easier to execute with the AR "manufacturing" passing attack which is what Gruden/Tirico/Silver/Dilfer all alluded to this past week alone (see, even as fans, we're way ahead of the game!). More importantly your distribution list helps demonstrate that with a much more experienced QB, there IS freedom built in to HaRoMan's system to take advantage of other, less targeted AR's or we ran more PS passing plays which independently, gives the QB more freedom. Granted, Alex had a more conservative "check down mentality" but it's still a fair point.

To be fair, I don't have access to any more of the 2012 games (DVR deletions) so I was wondering if anyone still had access and could review the offense objectively under Alex's first full eight games. I was wondering the following 1) Was it the same predominant AR "manufacturing" passing attack (but Roman called more for others in the game plan) and if so 2) Was it more effective for VD and Crabtree (AR's) and the aforementioned list of others in your distribution b/c of the Moss and Walker-decoy effects or 3) HaRoMan called many more PS passing plays b/c they trusted Alex much more to not only recognize the defensive coverages but that he'd hit the proper matchups and not turn the ball over.

This small amount of research would do wonders for helping us determine not only what the true foundation of our passing game is (predominant AR or PS or an even mix) but what to expect once CK becomes more experienced and a true veteran of reading defenses and this offensive playbook, in particular.

Does anyone have this information and is willing to put in the time to review those eight games?
[ Edited by NCommand on Dec 23, 2013 at 9:45 AM ]
Originally posted by NCommand:
thl408, thanks for reiterating this one b/c it's important. It's in line with your original theory that perhaps, Roman pulled back the reigns significantly on CK and made the passing game even easier to execute with the AR "manufacturing" passing attack which is what Gruden/Tirico/Silver/Dilfer all alluded to this past week alone (see, even as fans, we're way ahead of the game!). More importantly your distribution list helps demonstrate that with a much more experienced QB, there IS freedom built in to HaRoMan's system to take advantage of other, less targeted AR's or we ran more PS passing plays which independently, gives the QB more freedom. Granted, Alex had a more conservative "check down mentality" but it's still a fair point.

To be fair, I don't have access to any more of the 2012 games (DVR deletions) so I was wondering if anyone still had access and could review the offense objectively under Alex's first full eight games. I was wondering the following 1) Was it the same predominant AR "manufacturing" passing attack (but Roman called more for others in the game plan) and if so 2) Was it more effective for VD and Crabtree (AR's) and the aforementioned list of others in your distribution b/c of the Moss and Walker-decoy effects or 3) HaRoMan called many more PS passing plays b/c they trusted Alex much more to not only recognize the defensive coverages but that he'd hit the proper matchups and not turn the ball over.

This small amount of research would do wonders for helping us determine not only what the true foundation of our passing game is (predominant AR or PS or an even mix) but what to expect once CK becomes more experienced and a true veteran of reading defenses and this offensive playbook, in particular.

Does anyone have this information and is willing to put in the time to review those eight games?

Thanks, NC. The bolded is exactly what I am trying to get at. As a QB gains more experience he will 'see the field' better, thus incorporating his 3rd/4th reads more consistently. That is when we should start to see a better distribution in receptions (more Vance, more Gore). I am assuming AS saw the field better due to his experience, making it possible to use all his available targets to create a better distribution.

This offense does allow the QB to use his secondary options, but it is up to the QB to be confident in going to those secondary options. Well, that is my hypothesis and my hope. I am curious enough to look to the 2012 film for answers, perhaps during the offseason.
Originally posted by thl408:
Originally posted by NCommand:
thl408, thanks for reiterating this one b/c it's important. It's in line with your original theory that perhaps, Roman pulled back the reigns significantly on CK and made the passing game even easier to execute with the AR "manufacturing" passing attack which is what Gruden/Tirico/Silver/Dilfer all alluded to this past week alone (see, even as fans, we're way ahead of the game!). More importantly your distribution list helps demonstrate that with a much more experienced QB, there IS freedom built in to HaRoMan's system to take advantage of other, less targeted AR's or we ran more PS passing plays which independently, gives the QB more freedom. Granted, Alex had a more conservative "check down mentality" but it's still a fair point.

To be fair, I don't have access to any more of the 2012 games (DVR deletions) so I was wondering if anyone still had access and could review the offense objectively under Alex's first full eight games. I was wondering the following 1) Was it the same predominant AR "manufacturing" passing attack (but Roman called more for others in the game plan) and if so 2) Was it more effective for VD and Crabtree (AR's) and the aforementioned list of others in your distribution b/c of the Moss and Walker-decoy effects or 3) HaRoMan called many more PS passing plays b/c they trusted Alex much more to not only recognize the defensive coverages but that he'd hit the proper matchups and not turn the ball over.

This small amount of research would do wonders for helping us determine not only what the true foundation of our passing game is (predominant AR or PS or an even mix) but what to expect once CK becomes more experienced and a true veteran of reading defenses and this offensive playbook, in particular.

Does anyone have this information and is willing to put in the time to review those eight games?

Thanks, NC. The bolded is exactly what I am trying to get at. As a QB gains more experience he will 'see the field' better, thus incorporating his 3rd/4th reads more consistently. That is when we should start to see a better distribution in receptions (more Vance, more Gore). I am assuming AS saw the field better due to his experience, making it possible to use all his available targets to create a better distribution.

This offense does allow the QB to use his secondary options, but it is up to the QB to be confident in going to those secondary options. Well, that is my hypothesis and my hope. I am curious enough to look to the 2012 film for answers, perhaps during the offseason.

That is my hope as well and trust me, I'd love to be in that camp as well esp. for the long haul. Even if the foundation is predominately AR, that can still work as well (as we've seen) as long as HaRoMan is calling in the correct plays to properly attack the defensive alignments (not as critical if executed properly), we maintain top notch talent at the skill positions, we start to incorporate other non-AR's more, uses the full field more (like the Eagles - use the entire 53.3 yards), grows in his own play calling abilities (short passes to get CK involved early and into a rhythm, develops better "flow," improves in the RZ, takes better advantage of defensive weaknesses AND continues to attack them until they adjust, etc.), etc. But I am hoping to see CK "develop" and the onus becomes less on Roman pre-snap and more on CK in-play.
[ Edited by NCommand on Dec 23, 2013 at 10:19 AM ]
Thl, just for the record, I wanted to see LMJ, Hunter, Baldwin, and vance in the blowout games...I never said anything about playing those guys against elite teams. My feeling was it was shameful not to see what those guys have...or don't. And in blowout games, there is your chance to find out...so my philosophy is the same as yours on that score.

On AR vs PS, I just am not sure, but sure have read everything and seen every gif with interest. I cannot make up my mind based on what I have seen to date, except that kap is a vicious opponent to face when a passing play breaks down and he is on the run.
  • cciowa
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 26,866
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Thl, just for the record, I wanted to see LMJ, Hunter, Baldwin, and vance in the blowout games...I never said anything about playing those guys against elite teams. My feeling was it was shameful not to see what those guys have...or don't. And in blowout games, there is your chance to find out...so my philosophy is the same as yours on that score.

On AR vs PS, I just am not sure, but sure have read everything and seen every gif with interest. I cannot make up my mind based on what I have seen to date, except that kap is a vicious opponent to face when a passing play breaks down and he is on the run.
knowing roman he will f**k it up in the red zone which means we get field goals and not touchdowns which means it will be closer than it should and we will not see starters rested nor we will see guys in mop up time. due to our offensive coordinator being a miserable failure, and our defensive coordinators mind boggling decisions to go soft and let teams back in,, our guys have to play the entire game
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
thL, your point is well taken that it is, after all, Kap who ultimately decides who he is going to throw to, and sometimes, covered or not. However....kap is NOT the HC nor is he the OC. He is the QB, and Qb take orders from their immediate superiors. In this particular instance, JH and roman should have literally forced kap to throw to vance, Baldwin, lmj, and hunter. A simple, "KAP, my man, we need to know what our guys on the bench have...or don't have. We are expecting you, with a 25 pt lead in this game to go out there and help us find out. NOW GO DO IT" .

I can guarnandamtee it that conversation never took place, because if so we would know right this very moment if we are loaded with another TE and 3 RBs who are schidt hot receivers, and can actually be plugged in to WR or TE at any time and even better, as bailouts in the backfield. None of that ever happened. So it does in fact run thru kap, but this is COACHING SCREW UP 101 and it is on Jimbo...and to some extent Trent. roman is complicit just because he should have insisted knowing this also...altho it is a joke to think roman would even consider something like that.

So thl good try, but evidence is against you.

You called me out. What is this evidence that is against me? I am unclear what you were referring to.
Originally posted by cciowa:
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Thl, just for the record, I wanted to see LMJ, Hunter, Baldwin, and vance in the blowout games...I never said anything about playing those guys against elite teams. My feeling was it was shameful not to see what those guys have...or don't. And in blowout games, there is your chance to find out...so my philosophy is the same as yours on that score.

On AR vs PS, I just am not sure, but sure have read everything and seen every gif with interest. I cannot make up my mind based on what I have seen to date, except that kap is a vicious opponent to face when a passing play breaks down and he is on the run.
knowing roman he will f**k it up in the red zone which means we get field goals and not touchdowns which means it will be closer than it should and we will not see starters rested nor we will see guys in mop up time. due to our offensive coordinator being a miserable failure, and our defensive coordinators mind boggling decisions to go soft and let teams back in,, our guys have to play the entire game


Originally posted by cciowa:
knowing roman he will f**k it up in the red zone which means we get field goals and not touchdowns which means it will be closer than it should and we will not see starters rested nor we will see guys in mop up time. due to our offensive coordinator being a miserable failure, and our defensive coordinators mind boggling decisions to go soft and let teams back in,, our guys have to play the entire game
Frustrating at times, but "miserable failure?" There's no comparison with him and the group we had for 9 years during reigns of Erickson through Singletary. i do wish we'd see more WCO plays, however.
thl

I'm going to respond to you, but I just have to post this so I'm reminded of this later.....

3rd and 1 at the end of the 1st. We try to out-trick the Falcons. Keep drives alive. Why does Roman call these plays on 3rd down. Do that stuff on 1st or 2nd and 3rd. Stop trying to trick people.
^^^we run on 3rd and 1 all the time and when we dont convert people complain.
Originally posted by jreff22:
^^^we run on 3rd and 1 all the time and when we dont convert people complain.

the falcons haven't shown they can stop a power run yet.

they haven't stopped a single one
Originally posted by jonesadrian:
Originally posted by jreff22:
^^^we run on 3rd and 1 all the time and when we dont convert people complain.

the falcons haven't shown they can stop a power run yet.

they haven't stopped a single one

we don't have a power run game. Frank Gore + Hunter + LMJ is not a power run game. they are finesse in between the tackle runners.
Originally posted by jreff22:
^^^we run on 3rd and 1 all the time and when we dont convert people complain.

Jeff, I'm for keeping drives alive. It's not, as I see it, an absolute question of run or pass. It's a question of what plays you call for run or pass. That play asks Wil Tuakafu who was sitting on the couch last week to iso block on a DE and hoping he doesn't get pressure on Kap and then asking Boldin to catch a back-shoulder throw. For that play to be successful, soooooo much needs to go right. Opposed to .... Gore or running for 1 yard or a simple 2 yard slant.
he called a screen

i told you he was trolling us
Originally posted by NinerGM:
Originally posted by jreff22:
^^^we run on 3rd and 1 all the time and when we dont convert people complain.

Jeff, I'm for keeping drives alive. It's not, as I see it, an absolute question of run or pass. It's a question of what plays you call for run or pass. That play asks Wil Tuakafu who was sitting on the couch last week to iso block on a DE and hoping he doesn't get pressure on Kap and then asking Boldin to catch a back-shoulder throw. For that play to be successful, soooooo much needs to go right. Opposed to .... Gore or running for 1 yard or a simple 2 yard slant.
If they think he is ok to start he should be able to block. I dont think any of us expected that play...makes sense to do that sometimes
...