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Greg Roman, is he really good?

Originally posted by jonnydel:
When I went back and looked at the film. The reason the passing game sunk in the Colts game was because NO ONE got open on a lot off different passing plays. I'm talking about what you refer to as PS passing plays. The colts were running a lot of man coverage because they were able to pinch the pocket with Mathis and our receivers couldn't run simple routes to get open. When you can't throw the ball, you can't sustain drives, when you can't sustain drives, you can't run the ball.

It's really easy to blame one person when the whole thing goes awry. However, these players have to be professionals and execute their job. Personally, I think it's more on Trent Baalke to blame for our passing game woes. We should've aquired another receiver the moment Crabs got hurt, but we didn't. We knew some top receivers were on the trading block, but we didn't go after them. He drafted A.J. Jenkins with a 1st round pick....... he brought in a bunch of garbage players into camp, then traded Jenkins for another bust....(we would've been better off acquiring a 7th round pick for him). It wasn't like Crabs got hurt during training camp; Baalke knew since May that Crabs was down.

A carpenter is only as good as his tools and Baalke gave Roman some useless tools.

What tools did the Patriots give Brady? Minus Gronkowski, they've struggled compared to what people expect from there, however, they found ways to adapt, they found ways to get guys open, now whether or not they actually caught the ball is an entirely different story. But its not like the 49ers didn't have viable targets, when you have guys like VD, Boldin, defense's will key in on those guys and you find a way to get the ball to McDonald, to your RB's out of the backfield...etc. Were the 49ers in a weakened situation? Sure. Was it absolutely unworkable for an experienced, intelligent NFL playcaller? Not at all.
jonnydel, much as I appreciate and have learned from your terrific posts, I think you are making a judgement on Baldwin that is not yet able to be made...ie, he has been targeted only a handful of times, same for vance, hunter, LMJ...and I just flat don't believe anyone can judge these guys until they have had their chances. I am very hopeful for all 4 of the above, all considered by many as bust, when , hell, they haven't had but a handful of chances. Shame on JH for not getting those guys a lot of snaps, particularly in the 5 games we won going away by 31 pts. When it comes to draft time, how can JH and Trent make informed judgements, when they don't really know what they have on the bench....and that to me reeks of terrible coaching. Baldwin caught 20 passes/yr for two yrs in KC. I bet he hasn't been targeted more than 5 or 6 times total. How the heck does trent or JH know what they actually have on the bench if those guys aren't used...tramaine brock is a great example...should have been playing long ago...but doesn't get in until we have an injury. That, to me is bogus.
Originally posted by jonnydel:
Originally posted by NCommand:
On ESPN this morning Mike Tirico and Jon Gruden were discussing our offense: "Now without Michael Crabtree for a good part of the season it was manufacturing a way to get Anquan Boldin or Vernon Davis free..."

When I went back and looked at the film. The reason the passing game sunk in the Colts game was because NO ONE got open on a lot off different passing plays. I'm talking about what you refer to as PS passing plays. The colts were running a lot of man coverage because they were able to pinch the pocket with Mathis and our receivers couldn't run simple routes to get open. When you can't throw the ball, you can't sustain drives, when you can't sustain drives, you can't run the ball.

It's really easy to blame one person when the whole thing goes awry. However, these players have to be professionals and execute their job. Personally, I think it's more on Trent Baalke to blame for our passing game woes. We should've aquired another receiver the moment Crabs got hurt, but we didn't. We knew some top receivers were on the trading block, but we didn't go after them. He drafted A.J. Jenkins with a 1st round pick....... he brought in a bunch of garbage players into camp, then traded Jenkins for another bust....(we would've been better off acquiring a 7th round pick for him). It wasn't like Crabs got hurt during training camp; Baalke knew since May that Crabs was down.

A carpenter is only as good as his tools and Baalke gave Roman some useless tools.

Or, it's easy to counter an offense when you know where the ball is going. As well as you can execute, if I get a "jump" on the route because I know, as you've quoted only Anquan and Vernon are getting the ball, I ignore - much like the Colts did, the other "receivers" and shut those two down. If Roman was a OC worth his salt, he'd design ways to get his ridiculously talented stable of running backs involved in the passing offense. It's not like these guys can't catch passes because when I run college film on them, they were quite adept at catching passes. What this offense lacks is creativity outside it's own rigid structure. As I've pointed out in other posts, this will ultimately doom this team as the Davis, Q and Crabtree become more expensive to sign. The rigidity of only forcing the majority of passes to designated receivers will inevitably mean someone else isn't being developed. How can we make the claim that we have garbage receivers when they didn't get opportunities? We have a two TEs on this team that were making huge passing plays in practice, even lauded by fellow players. Is Carrier running passing routes? How many throws this year have we seen go to McDonald who is a huge mistmatch? When have we said "offensively, we're going to feature LMJ as a Sproles-type player."

jonnydel, I think your analysis is awesome the way you break down film, etc. However I strongly disagree with you that this team doesn't have the tools on it's current roster to be a great offense despite the loss of Crabtree. The drop off shouldn't make you the worst passing offense in the league. If your offense is so dependent on one player in today's NFL, rife with injuries and unknowns ......



You're running the wrong offense in today's NFL.
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
jonnydel, much as I appreciate and have learned from your terrific posts, I think you are making a judgement on Baldwin that is not yet able to be made...ie, he has been targeted only a handful of times, same for vance, hunter, LMJ...and I just flat don't believe anyone can judge these guys until they have had their chances. I am very hopeful for all 4 of the above, all considered by many as bust, when , hell, they haven't had but a handful of chances. Shame on JH for not getting those guys a lot of snaps, particularly in the 5 games we won going away by 31 pts. When it comes to draft time, how can JH and Trent make informed judgements, when they don't really know what they have on the bench....and that to me reeks of terrible coaching. Baldwin caught 20 passes/yr for two yrs in KC. I bet he hasn't been targeted more than 5 or 6 times total. How the heck does trent or JH know what they actually have on the bench if those guys aren't used...tramaine brock is a great example...should have been playing long ago...but doesn't get in until we have an injury. That, to me is bogus.

You read my mind
Boy, GM, do I ever agree with the lack of creativity of this O outside its own rigid structure. Well said.
Originally posted by jonnydel:
When I went back and looked at the film. The reason the passing game sunk in the Colts game was because NO ONE got open on a lot off different passing plays. I'm talking about what you refer to as PS passing plays. The colts were running a lot of man coverage because they were able to pinch the pocket with Mathis and our receivers couldn't run simple routes to get open. When you can't throw the ball, you can't sustain drives, when you can't sustain drives, you can't run the ball.

It's really easy to blame one person when the whole thing goes awry. However, these players have to be professionals and execute their job. Personally, I think it's more on Trent Baalke to blame for our passing game woes. We should've aquired another receiver the moment Crabs got hurt, but we didn't. We knew some top receivers were on the trading block, but we didn't go after them. He drafted A.J. Jenkins with a 1st round pick....... he brought in a bunch of garbage players into camp, then traded Jenkins for another bust....(we would've been better off acquiring a 7th round pick for him). It wasn't like Crabs got hurt during training camp; Baalke knew since May that Crabs was down.

A carpenter is only as good as his tools and Baalke gave Roman some useless tools.

I was wondering if you noticed, when reviewing the film, how often VD and Boldin were schemed open in the HOU, ARI, TEN games (weeks 5-7). That was something I saw when watching the games again. It was easy to scheme them open because opposing defenses were playing predominantly man coverage. Lots of decoy (clearing) routes used to get VD and Boldin space to work their routes. That was when we saw Vance and Miller lined up wide, with the main objective to run a go route designed to clear the area for Boldin and VD to work.

It's fair to say that Baalke didn't get any help once Crabs was injured since all he did was trade AJJ for Baldwin, but we can't say he didn't try to get something bigger since we don't know. If he was a good GM, which I believe he is, he would have explored all available options on the trading block, so I am going to assume that he did explore trade options. If other GMs are worth their weight, they would price gouge the f--k out of Baalke, someone who just lost his #1 WR and has plenty of draft picks in 2014. It wouldn't be absurd to speculate that Baalke kicked the tires on many deals, only to not get a reasonable trade offer due to not being in a position of leverage. Before the season began, what GM would trade away a legit WR asset for future considerations (draft picks)? That would send a horrible message to the team and fan base. "We haven't started the season, but we are looking forward to the next draft by trading our proven talent for futures".

I believe what happened is what you described above, and what happened in the comment NC quoted (made by Gruden). The IND game showed that the WR corp in week 3 had no consistent ability to create separation versus man coverage. So with a QB that lacked polish, a WR corp that lacked ability, and a 1-2 record, it was time to put the onus on the coaching staff to get guys open, make it less difficult for Kap, and just let him use his arm talent and sling the ball to where the coaches want him to.
Geesh, I step away for a few hours and BAM, we're the #5 seed and this thread took off again. And great comments by all no matter what side of the fence you are on. Wow, I don't even know where to start on this one...you guys covered so much re: how I feel.
NinersGM, I somewhat agree with you that the 49ers won't know what they have if they don't play, and throw to those players (Vance, Baldwin, LMJ). But I posed the hypothesis that it is Kap who is the main factor when it comes to not throwing to different WRs.

I posted this in post #1509 of this thread, but wanted to bring it up to address the issue of unbalanced reception distribution.

…..
Going back to the pass distribution for 2012, I don't think it's correct to look at the final 2012 stats (16 games) to get a sense of how the pass distribution should look in this offense. My claim was that the top heavy pass distribution is due to Kap and how he heavily favors certain targets, not due to how Harbaugh envisions this passing attack to be. Kap ruins the validity of the 2012 end of year stats by becoming the starter in game #10. When Smith was playing the first 8 games of the season (games he played start to finish) the pass distribution was not top heavy like when Kap is the quarterback. Here is a breakdown of how the 2012 pass distribution looked at the end of game #8 (Smith was injured in game #9 so I did not use that STL game):

Crabs: 39
Ham: 28
Davis: 20
Gore: 16
Moss: 13
Williams: 10
Walker:7
Hunter: 7
Miller: 2
Celek: 2
Ginn: 1
That's a nice distribution of completions in an offense. I understand targets might be a better stat to use as opposed to receptions, but perhaps we can dive into that later if needed. Below is the current catch distribution for this season (through 12 games):

Boldin: 61
Davis: 42
Miller: 18
Gore: 15
etc....
Read more at http://www.49erswebzone.com/forum/niners/168162-greg-roman-really-good/page101/#eqh6aiWM5zw60q5m.99
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So I used the stats from the 2012 games 1-8 when AS played from start to finish. 2011's offseason/training camp was cut short due to the lockout and didn't allow coaching staffs to implement a new offense, so I omitted 2011.

Originally posted by NinerGM:
Or, it's easy to counter an offense when you know where the ball is going. As well as you can execute, if I get a "jump" on the route because I know, as you've quoted only Anquan and Vernon are getting the ball, I ignore - much like the Colts did, the other "receivers" and shut those two down. If Roman was a OC worth his salt, he'd design ways to get his ridiculously talented stable of running backs involved in the passing offense. It's not like these guys can't catch passes because when I run college film on them, they were quite adept at catching passes. What this offense lacks is creativity outside it's own rigid structure. As I've pointed out in other posts, this will ultimately doom this team as the Davis, Q and Crabtree become more expensive to sign. The rigidity of only forcing the majority of passes to designated receivers will inevitably mean someone else isn't being developed. How can we make the claim that we have garbage receivers when they didn't get opportunities? We have a two TEs on this team that were making huge passing plays in practice, even lauded by fellow players. Is Carrier running passing routes? How many throws this year have we seen go to McDonald who is a huge mistmatch? When have we said "offensively, we're going to feature LMJ as a Sproles-type player."

jonnydel, I think your analysis is awesome the way you break down film, etc. However I strongly disagree with you that this team doesn't have the tools on it's current roster to be a great offense despite the loss of Crabtree. The drop off shouldn't make you the worst passing offense in the league. If your offense is so dependent on one player in today's NFL, rife with injuries and unknowns ......



You're running the wrong offense in today's NFL.
thL, your point is well taken that it is, after all, Kap who ultimately decides who he is going to throw to, and sometimes, covered or not. However....kap is NOT the HC nor is he the OC. He is the QB, and Qb take orders from their immediate superiors. In this particular instance, JH and roman should have literally forced kap to throw to vance, Baldwin, lmj, and hunter. A simple, "KAP, my man, we need to know what our guys on the bench have...or don't have. We are expecting you, with a 25 pt lead in this game to go out there and help us find out. NOW GO DO IT" .

I can guarnandamtee it that conversation never took place, because if so we would know right this very moment if we are loaded with another TE and 3 RBs who are schidt hot receivers, and can actually be plugged in to WR or TE at any time and even better, as bailouts in the backfield. None of that ever happened. So it does in fact run thru kap, but this is COACHING SCREW UP 101 and it is on Jimbo...and to some extent Trent. roman is complicit just because he should have insisted knowing this also...altho it is a joke to think roman would even consider something like that.

So thl good try, but evidence is against you.
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
thL, your point is well taken that it is, after all, Kap who ultimately decides who he is going to throw to, and sometimes, covered or not. However....kap is NOT the HC nor is he the OC. He is the QB, and Qb take orders from their immediate superiors. In this particular instance, JH and roman should have literally forced kap to throw to vance, Baldwin, lmj, and hunter. A simple, "KAP, my man, we need to know what our guys on the bench have...or don't have. We are expecting you, with a 25 pt lead in this game to go out there and help us find out. NOW GO DO IT" .

I can guarnandamtee it that conversation never took place, because if so we would know right this very moment if we are loaded with another TE and 3 RBs who are schidt hot receivers, and can actually be plugged in to WR or TE at any time and even better, as bailouts in the backfield. None of that ever happened. So it does in fact run thru kap, but this is COACHING SCREW UP 101 and it is on Jimbo...and to some extent Trent. roman is complicit just because he should have insisted knowing this also...altho it is a joke to think roman would even consider something like that.

So thl good try, but evidence is against you.

Regarding what you bolded. If you are referring specifically to when it's a blowout, to get Vance/Baldwin the ball, then I agree. It was time to scrimmage and get the passing attack, and Kap some reps throwing the ball at game speed. If you are also including times where the game is in the balance, I disagree in telling Kap to target Vance/Baldwin, although that has happened in games. Given a situation with the game in question, with what I feel are sub-par WRs, the team should get the ball to their proven playmakers. When the game was in the balance and the target went to Vance/Baldwin I can remember more drops and mistakes than I can remember good things happen in the passing game. And I am trying to be as objective as I can.

You stated above that Kap is the one "who ultimately decides who he is going to throw to", yet say it's the coaching staff that tells him what to do. There is truth in both, but where we differ is that you believe this is predominantly an AR passing attack, where I do not.

Let me get this straight so I can better reply later. You stated above that the coaching staff tells the QB where to throw on most passing plays. Are you suggesting that when AS was QB, the coaching staff told him to distribute the ball, but with Kap, they are telling Kap to throw it to Boldin/VD to produce this lopsided distribution in team receptions? Let me know what think regarding this question, then tell me again the evidence is against me.
Actually Thl, you have me confused with NCOmmand. I have yet to figure out, even with you, Adrian, and jonnydel, teaching me as you go, just exactly what we are playing. I think I am more in the PS camp, but in all honesty, I have not taken a stand, because I can see it so many different ways, where guys on both sides are presenting compelling arguments. And I thank you as well as NC, Jonny and Adrian, for your astute observations and teaching. I am just not sure, as I can see it both ways or neither of the above... as in busted plays.

I do definitely come down hard on jimbo for wasting 5 (FIVE) games we won by avg 31 pts , all against weak sister teams, where I, and others, kept waiting for him to showcase vance, Baldwin, lmj, and hunter as receivers, both in backfield and in WR/TE slots,so we could at long last find out if we have 1, 2, with luck 3 or conceivably 4 receivers that are just schidt hot fantastic at catching the football.

We all know that didn't happen and frankly, Thl, I just couldn't believe our coach had such a lack of curiousity for using these 5 opportunities to learn about the receivers on his team. Incredible. Just incredible. And in my mind, very, very foolish. What if 1, 2 or 3 of those guys are as good at receiving as Tramaine was in covering and tackling? Stupid. just stupid, and way , way less than what I expected from a guy I think of as our savior.

As for kap, heck yeah JH could have directed him to throw to Baldwin, vance, LMJ and Hunter in the backfield and also at WR. As you know he did none of these things. What kind of coach is it THl, that doesn't want to find out what guys on the bench can do for him? To me that sounds like a guy who is playing not to lose....exactly the way he coached against the 4 elite teams we lost to. I will end with just saying I am terribly disappointed our coach isn't more interested in seeing if there is untapped receiving talent sitting on the bench or not.

As for kap, sure, he has favorites, no question. However, If JH tells him to throw to these four guys in a laugher game, then kap would have had to do it. He didn't. Jimbo's error.
Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Actually Thl, you have me confused with NCOmmand. I have yet to figure out, even with you, Adrian, and jonnydel, teaching me as you go, just exactly what we are playing. I think I am more in the PS camp, but in all honesty, I have not taken a stand, because I can see it so many different ways, where guys on both sides are presenting compelling arguments. And I thank you as well as NC, Jonny and Adrian, for your astute observations and teaching. I am just not sure, as I can see it both ways or neither of the above... as in busted plays.

I do definitely come down hard on jimbo for wasting 5 (FIVE) games we won by avg 31 pts , all against weak sister teams, where I, and others, kept waiting for him to showcase vance, Baldwin, lmj, and hunter as receivers, both in backfield and in WR/TE slots,so we could at long last find out if we have 1, 2, with luck 3 or conceivably 4 receivers that are just schidt hot fantastic at catching the football.

We all know that didn't happen and frankly, Thl, I just couldn't believe our coach had such a lack of curiousity for using these 5 opportunities to learn about the receivers on his team. Incredible. Just incredible. And in my mind, very, very foolish. What if 1, 2 or 3 of those guys are as good at receiving as Tramaine was in covering and tackling? Stupid. just stupid, and way , way less than what I expected from a guy I think of as our savior.

As for kap, heck yeah JH could have directed him to throw to Baldwin, vance, LMJ and Hunter in the backfield and also at WR. As you know he did none of these things. What kind of coach is it THl, that doesn't want to find out what guys on the bench can do for him? To me that sounds like a guy who is playing not to lose....exactly the way he coached against the 4 elite teams we lost to. I will end with just saying I am terribly disappointed our coach isn't more interested in seeing if there is untapped receiving talent sitting on the bench or not.

As for kap, sure, he has favorites, no question. However, If JH tells him to throw to these four guys in a laugher game, then kap would have had to do it. He didn't. Jimbo's error.
I get you are upset that Jim didn't use the blowouts as practice time. It still would have just resulted in a handful more passing attempts. I wanted it too, but not a huge deal. And obviously the team won big, so it's hard for me to be too hard on Jim for that.

Gotcha on the lack of a stance you have on the passing offense. The first post I made today was in reply to NinerGM and how he stated the passing offense is so focused on targeting two players, because this is the passing attack Harbaugh envisions. My take that it is not, regarding pass distribution. I posted the receiving totals as a way to speculate on why VD/Boldin ruled the targets (pre-Crabs). You stated that the evidence was against me. What was it with those numbers that made you say that? Or are you saying that the reasons you stated in post is this 'evidence against me'? Just wondering since you called me out on that. I am open to other ways of figuring out how Jim really envisions this passing offense once the main piece of this passing attack is polished and shiny, Kap.

Regarding the bolded. You want Vance/Baldwin to get targets regardless of game situation. This is a difference in coaching philosophy you have with Jim. He wants the ball going to his playmakers (AR plays) when the game is undecided. Especially when his QB is shaky from drive to drive. If you remember the targets Baldwin got this season, they were all first read plays for Kap. He gave Baldwin the jump balls and they all failed - all of them. I would count 4 of his 9 targets this season was that type of pass. Then one he dropped in the end zone. Vance with drops (the one vs CAR hurt). The 49ers didn't pass much during weeks 4-9ish so make the most of the opportunities by scheming your top play makers, not your secondary ones. I personally agree with Jim's philosophy given a run first offense during those weeks.

Also, coaches learn a lot about players in practice, especially bench players. Their curiosity about whether a player has the goods to take targets away from Boldin/VD on AR plays is probably satisfied in practice. Please no more Baldwin talk. I've stated stuff on Baldwin in the thread, "has Baldwin played his last game" including his poor target to completion ratio, in SF and in KC. He can't beat out a one legged Ham. He's young so there is still a chance.
Baldwin will be gone this year. He can't even block well dang.
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Originally posted by pasodoc9er:
Boy, GM, do I ever agree with the lack of creativity of this O outside its own rigid structure. Well said.

when he gets creative it is a fake toss pitch to ginn at our own one yard line . then when he needs to go meat and potatoes,(vs panthers) he tells the offense they are not good enough to get a yard on fourth and one from the one
Originally posted by LBSI9ers:
Baldwin will be gone this year. He can't even block well dang.

What? That was the first thing that stood out to me...his blocking on the edges esp. after watching Kyle Williams get destroyed out on the edges on the regular.
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