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The Michael Crabtree Thread

So Crabtree is as effective (per play) for our offense as Calvin Johnson is for his? lol.

Does Crabtree draw double teams as often as Calvin Johnson?
Originally posted by random49er:
So Crabtree is as effective (per play) for our offense as Calvin Johnson is for his? lol.

Does Crabtree draw double teams as often as Calvin Johnson?

No doubt Calvin gets doubled and even tripled team. Those stats really don't account for that, but they do give you a little picture of how effective the receivers are when going out on routes. At least it shows that Crabtree is getting open and executing against the coverages he is facing. Megatron does it consistently against bracketed coverages though and that's why he's hands down the best in the game.
Originally posted by SofaKing:
Originally posted by buck:
I do not know if Crabtree is a franchise receiver, but that depends on how you define a franchise wide receiver.

Comparing wide receivers presents problems because those receivers play in different offenses, with different quarterbacks, and different offensive coordinators.

Instead of engaging in what if speculations, I decided to look at how the wide receivers did within the offense in which they played, with the quarterbacks and offensive coordinators that they had.

I looked at our Crabtree has done in our current offense. I decided, and I hope not entirely arbitrarily, to look at the Catch % and Drop % of Crabtree over the last three years and the same numbers for those receivers most commonly referred to as franchise receivers.

My sense is both catch % and drop % are good tools to use when evaluating wide receivers.

Here is what I found.




compiled from

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2011/

To be perfectly honest, the soundness of Crabtree's numbers surprised me.

He really might be a franchise wide receiver----might.


Good stuff, buck.

Here's another interesting stat from PFF -- YPRR (yards per route run)...

The Pro Football Focus "Yards per Route Run" figure takes into account the number of snaps a player went into a pattern, providing a better indicator of production than Yards per Reception or even Yards per Target.

Here is how Crabtree stacked up in 2012, when he was fully healthy and played all 16 games:



It's a pretty accurate measure of production IMO, as it puts everyone on equal footing. Notice how Crabtree has far less targets, and snaps in route, than the other WRs around him. Some WRs have monster stats because of the pass-happy system they are in, while other WRs who are just as productive have lesser stats simply because their team throws less.

Essentially, Crabtree is getting the targets a second or third WR would get in a spread or higher powered WCO with perpetual 3 and 4 WR sets. But when it comes to contracts, like with CK, it's about what those players MEAN to our offense (ala VD as well). If there is going to be a snag in contract talks, this will be it. His agent won't have ANY stats to prove he's an elite WR but his value towards our overall offensive effectiveness is at a elite level. That said, having a Stevie Johnson and developing Quinton Patton and Ellington (maybe even Baldwin) can help take the stress off a bit during these negotiations. As always, we'll offer him a very fair contract. Will he go the way of Goldson, Whitner, etc. or the way of Kaepernick. THAT is the question...
  • buck
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here is a somewhat negative take on Crabtree

The Michael Crabtree Conundrum: Should he stay or go?

http://www.ninersnation.com/2014/1/29/5355554/49ers-michael-crabtree-contract-49ers-free-agents-2015

My sense is, like or hate him, not many people, in any, think the 49er front office will overpay him.
I've studied this thing backwards, fowards, sideways and diagonally.

The only thing I can tell so far is that nobody doubts Crabs abilities. He is a proven WR and has stepped up big in games we need him to.
The question mark on him is going to be answered this season, if he has 100rec, 1200+ yards, 10tds season everybody will forget every injury he has had and deem him worthy of the big payday.
Where things wil get interesting is if Crabs has a mediocre season or misses a couple games.

Heres to hoping Crabs becomes that francise WR we all know he can be
Originally posted by Quest4six:
I've studied this thing backwards, fowards, sideways and diagonally.

The only thing I can tell so far is that nobody doubts Crabs abilities. He is a proven WR and has stepped up big in games we need him to.
The question mark on him is going to be answered this season, if he has 100rec, 1200+ yards, 10tds season everybody will forget every injury he has had and deem him worthy of the big payday.
Where things wil get interesting is if Crabs has a mediocre season or misses a couple games.

Heres to hoping Crabs becomes that francise WR we all know he can be
Coming back from injury...he did provide Kaep with a lot of help. Some players can't even do that off an injury
Trading King Crabs for Andre Johnson would be so clutch right now. Makes since for both teams. Crabs is a Texas guy and probably resigns with them. AJ wants out and to play for a contender. Would give the offense a great vertical threat and much more explosive potential.
[ Edited by kgizzle4081 on Jul 10, 2014 at 9:47 AM ]
Originally posted by kgizzle4081:
Trading King Crabs for Andre Johnson would be so clutch right now. Makes since for both teams. Crabs is a Texas guy and probably resigns with them. AJ wants out and to play for a contender. Would give the offense a great vertical threat and much more explosive potential.

Not sure if serious?
Originally posted by kgizzle4081:
Trading King Crabs for Andre Johnson would be so clutch right now. Makes since for both teams. Crabs is a Texas guy and probably resigns with them. AJ wants out and to play for a contender. Would give the offense a great vertical threat and much more explosive potential.

Lol
Originally posted by kgizzle4081:
Trading King Crabs for Andre Johnson would be so clutch right now. Makes since for both teams. Crabs is a Texas guy and probably resigns with them. AJ wants out and to play for a contender. Would give the offense a great vertical threat and much more explosive potential.

I would want Crabtree over Johnson based on age and his rapport with Kap. I think we resign Crab mostly because our franchise QB wants him and structured his contract in a way where we can make it happen.
  • boast
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Originally posted by kgizzle4081:
Trading King Crabs for Andre Johnson would be so clutch right now. Makes since for both teams. Crabs is a Texas guy and probably resigns with them. AJ wants out and to play for a contender. Would give the offense a great vertical threat and much more explosive potential.


terrible idea. trade 26 year old Crabtree for almost 33 year old AJ. and AJ's contract is huge going into the '15 and '16 seasons.
  • Phil
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Originally posted by kgizzle4081:
Trading King Crabs for Andre Johnson would be so clutch right now. Makes since for both teams. Crabs is a Texas guy and probably resigns with them. AJ wants out and to play for a contender. Would give the offense a great vertical threat and much more explosive potential.

Andre? Cleveland or New England. Heck, if the Rams or Carolina could afford him they'd be interested. If there was serious friction between Crabs and the FO I would entertain this thought but at this point I think they're going to do what they can to keep him. Make an offer based on his history and this seasons performance. I personally think Crabs will test the FA market and take a huge deal if one is offered. People only have one life and for a lot of us money is very important- Crabs has shown that he wants the money. If you had a chance to make millions more by changing the company you work for what would you do? I'd follow the money unless there wasn't a huge difference in offers made.
  • DeUh
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Don´t want another AJ near our team ever again !
Originally posted by boast:
Originally posted by kgizzle4081:
Trading King Crabs for Andre Johnson would be so clutch right now. Makes since for both teams. Crabs is a Texas guy and probably resigns with them. AJ wants out and to play for a contender. Would give the offense a great vertical threat and much more explosive potential.


terrible idea. trade 26 year old Crabtree for almost 33 year old AJ. and AJ's contract is huge going into the '15 and '16 seasons.

Are the Niners really going to be able to afford to keep Crabs though with Aldon needing to be resigned too? Niners can't afford to keep everyone.Crabs can get more elsewhere which is why I think he's gone after this season. Niners have some young WR prospects such as Patton and Ellington. I think for this season AJ is an upgrade to Crabs and Niners are in win it all now mode.
[ Edited by kgizzle4081 on Jul 10, 2014 at 10:44 AM ]
  • DeUh
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Originally posted by kgizzle4081:
Are the Niners really going to be able to afford to keep Crabs though with Aldon needing to be resigned too? Niners can't afford to keep everyone.Crabs can get more elsewhere which is why I think he's gone after this season. Niners have some young WR prospects such as Patton and Ellington. I think for this season AJ is an upgrade to Crabs and Niners are in win it all now mode.

Andre Johnson Contract
2014 Cap Hit 14,644,583 .....Dead Money If Cut 11,964,166
2015 Cap Hit 16,144,583. ....Dead Money If Cut 7,319,583
http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/andre-johnson/

I dont expect Crabtree to get those kind of numbers.
[ Edited by DeUh on Jul 10, 2014 at 11:42 AM ]