Originally posted by AmpLee:The two most likely factors affecting what was previously said and what was ultimately handed down are the LAX incident and that Smith's suspension was decided in a post-Ray Rice world for the NFL. Notwithstanding the fact that no charges were ultimately filed, the LAX incident had to give the NFL pause as to the extent Smith had corrected his behavior and, obviously, the lash back from the Ray Rice suspension made it obvious that suspensions going forward were probably going to be harsher across the board as the NFL tries to repair the reinforced public perception that it is soft on illegal conduct or transgressions by its players.
A couple issues...
- The Commissioner was quoted as saying that he was about correcting behavior, not punishment
- Aldon took steps to correct his behavior
- The commissioner was quoted as saying that Adons rehab would be taken into consideration
- It was reported after the punishment by Ed Werder that the commissioner did not consider the self-imposed rehab when punishing Aldon
- The breakdown of the suspension was 5 games for personal conduct and 4 games for the Reckless driving and DUI
Essentially, the commissioner said one thing (it's about behavioral correction not punishment) then did another (threw the book at Aldon while ignoring his steps to correct his own behavior). It's not hard to see the issue people have with how this all went down. 9 games is an unprecedented punishment for Aldon's type of crimes especially considering Aldon's steps to improve himself during the season (missing 5 additional games doing so).
Most everyone on this board, me included, expected the 5 games Smith missed last year to be in some way a game for game reduction based on Goodell's comments. In retrospect, that may have been too big of a leap to take. He said it would be considered. I have not seen the referenced Ed Werder report and have not seen any of the 49er beat reporters report that to be the case, so, at best that would seem to be speculation. It may very well be that the 5 games missed were taken into consideration and that is why Smith is being allowed to be at the team facility and attend meetings, which my understanding is a player may not do either for violations of the personal conduct policy. Goodell never said how or to what extent the 5 games missed would be considered. He only said that they would be a consideration.
In the days leading up to the suspension, it was widely reported that a 6 to 8 game suspension was expected. I've heard Barrows on KNBR say the 49ers were expecting 6 games. Obviously 9 is a lot and more than was expected but it was also negotiated by the NFLPA on behalf of Smith that Smith accepted and waived his right to appeal. Smith and the NFLPA could have not waived the right to appeal and continued to fight the suspension. The fact they did not do so, should probably tell us something about what Smith was looking at otherwise.
Lets also not forget that if Smith had gotten the message after the first DUI in Florida, he and the 49ers would not be in this situation now. People make mistakes and are entitled to second chances (usually), but if one does not learn from the mistake, there are usually harsher consequences that follow. Smith placed himself at risk by not learning from the first mistake and once you place yourself in the discipline system, you lose control of what the final outcome may be. That's what happened to Smith, the 49ers and their fans.