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If Kaepernick is going to be the long-term answer at QB anyway, why keep Smith?

  • sfout
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Originally posted by baltien:
Originally posted by sfout:
No one has mentioned throwing Kaepernick to the wolves and starting him next year. It's all about what would we do if we lose Alex to FA, Sign Manning or another QB? Kaepernick will get all the time in the world to develop, we've only said that just cause we drafted a QB early last year that doesnt automatically make him him the QB of the future.

I don't get what you mean. I may be slow, but three of the four possible answers in the OP's post involved Kaep starting either this year or next year. In any case, my post wasn't to say that Kaep wouldn't do well if he started next season (who knows?). I'm only saying that history isn't on his side here, and that's why I think it makes more sense to bring him along slowly.

I didn't read the 4th option all the way. That one suggests him starting in 2012, the other 3 say 2013. Yes I agree, history of 2nd round QBs is not good and if we want to give Kaep a fair shot then he needs at least 2 maybe 3 years to acclimate.
  • sfout
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Originally posted by Redgoldknight:
What the heck are you smoking? I'm assuming some of the 'The Humbolt Imports'! Of course the 49ers intentions were to draft CK7 as the QB of the short and distant future. No team jumps up almost 15 spots in the draft, gives up there 2nd and 4th round pick to get a guy. The grand design of it is Harbaugh and Baalke were trying to trade up for CK7 in the 1st round with New England. But the pats wouldn't budge. When we drafted Kaps Harbuagh and Baalke made it clear that was there guy all along(Watch the press conferance)

You always say "this is the guy we always wanted" - What moron would ever say "no we dont like him but hey we HAD to take him".......Half the people on here believe we wanted Dalton, watch the footage of Baalke slamming the phone down right before the Bengals announce the pick. The other half think we actually wanted Kaepernick.

The trade up for a QB was done out of necessity but also as psychological tool to show commitment to a prospect, whether he would've fallen to us we'll never know what Baalke or Harbaugh was actually thinking that day so it doesn't matter.

IMHO Kaepernick will get a shot but I wont mind one bit if we end up with another QB besides him for the post Alex Smith era.
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by sfout:
No one has mentioned throwing Kaepernick to the wolves and starting him next year. It's all about what would we do if we lose Alex to FA, Sign Manning or another QB? Kaepernick will get all the time in the world to develop, we've only said that just cause we drafted a QB early last year that doesnt automatically make him him the QB of the future.

Door #4 is committing to Kaepernick in 2012. It's the least likely scenario, but would be the cheapest and its the option that allows us to keep the rest of the team together.


Draft Kellen Moore in round 5 or 6 if Alex leaves.

Kaepernick/Tolzien battle it out for the starting job, Kellen Moore is the back up and #3.

Us the money saved to get Carl Nicks and a WR in FA.

Draft Fleener at 30,

Draft A Wr at 2nd round pick.

Draft a RB like Turbin in round 3.

You are built for a future good run. Imagine Nicks and Iupati down field blocking.
Originally posted by sfout:
Originally posted by Redgoldknight:
What the heck are you smoking? I'm assuming some of the 'The Humbolt Imports'! Of course the 49ers intentions were to draft CK7 as the QB of the short and distant future. No team jumps up almost 15 spots in the draft, gives up there 2nd and 4th round pick to get a guy. The grand design of it is Harbaugh and Baalke were trying to trade up for CK7 in the 1st round with New England. But the pats wouldn't budge. When we drafted Kaps Harbuagh and Baalke made it clear that was there guy all along(Watch the press conferance)

You always say "this is the guy we always wanted" - What moron would ever say "no we dont like him but hey we HAD to take him".......Half the people on here believe we wanted Dalton, watch the footage of Baalke slamming the phone down right before the Bengals announce the pick. The other half think we actually wanted Kaepernick.

The trade up for a QB was done out of necessity but also as psychological tool to show commitment to a prospect, whether he would've fallen to us we'll never know what Baalke or Harbaugh was actually thinking that day so it doesn't matter.

IMHO Kaepernick will get a shot but I wont mind one bit if we end up with another QB besides him for the post Alex Smith era.

How Quickly we forget THE TOLZIEN GOD-BOY-KING LOL

That said, Kaep was drafted raw, came out early IIRC, and needs time for seasoning ala Flynn, Rodgers, etc. Of course, Montana did not start until midway through Year 2. Walsh knew he had something. We don't with Kaep.

I love Manning as a player but I have this bad feeling that this is not going to end well for him. I don't want to see him go out like that. 3 neck surgeries in 18 months is just crazy including a fusion. Of course, he could find some doctor to clear him, provided Manning signed a total release of liabiltiy. The guy is one bad hit from being a QUAD and keeping Alex is the way to go. If and when Kaep is ready, we'll know and Alex's contract won't be guaranteed (just the prorated signing bonus).

Kaep might be tweeting about itching to play but Alex is still ascending. If this becomes a Brees / Rivers situation, I'd be ok with that because a team would then trade for Alex
A - Peyton Manning will cost too much money. We have too many free agents of our own to re-sign, to afford him. B - Nobody knows if he is even ready to play, or will be able to take a hit. /end yet another peyton Manning thread.
Originally posted by sfout:
IMO you shouldn't just say we'd sign Manning, sure Manning is a HOF QB but he is one good licking away from a broken neck or concussion that would end his career. Even if we signed him a $2M base contract with $30M in incentives it makes no sense to add in such a wildcard.

If by some strange incident Alex leaves us we will probably push for Josh Johnson as another stop gap for Kaepernick. But yes Alex could have another 10 years in SF if he continues to improve and leads us to a super bowl or 2. So I understand the confusion as to why we apparently aren't willing to give him a 5 year deal when we think he is the guy, even if we sign him to this "mega deal" we can always cut him in a 2 or 3 years and he will miss out on a huge chunk of cash.

I personally dont think it is the length but the way the deal is structure that is holding it up. I'm not a reporter and I dont have the "sources" that these guys have but Baalke obviously likes backloaded or incentive based deals with a good chunk of guaranteed cash up front so maybe Tom Condon is looking at a 5 year 30M deal with a 8M signing bonus but only a 2M base salary for the next 3 years and then all of a sudden his salary sky rockets to 8M during the 4th and 5th years when Alex would be very expendable if Kaepernick has progressed. I think Alex and Condon want an evenly structured long term deal more then simply having a long term deal. Alex probably wants to actually get 6 or 7M a year not just average but actually per year.

But again to reiterate if we somehow lost Alex Smith to free agency we would probably sign Josh Johnson to stopgap for Kaepernick.

EDIT: I personally hold the belief that Kaepernick was drafted because of his potential and was probably the best prospect for JH to work with besides Dalton but also as an effort to simply appease the fan base and show them that "the 9ers are planning for a future without Alex Smith". IMHO I wouldn't bat an eyelash if a blue chip 1st round QB fell to us in the 1st in the next 2 or 3 years and we took him and traded Kaepernick. Just because we took a QB during Harbaugh's first year as a coach does not make him the QB of the future for us.

I'm not in favor of signing Manning, but I don't think you have a very good understanding of his injury. He has a nerve injury in his neck. That has nothing to do with the chances of him breaking his neck. The nerve injury has been affecting the strength in his right arm. As the nerves continue to regenerate, his arm strength will get better. The question is not whether or not he will get hurt, because the chances Alex Smith gets hurt are pretty much the same. The real question is if he has his arm strength back.
  • sfout
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early IIRC? Please elaborate? He was 4 year starter so that is confusing. But yea I feel for Manning, I said the same thing earlier, he's one good hit away from being messed up for life.

I'd be ecstatic if we got to a Brees/Rivers situation too. lol.
  • sfout
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Originally posted by Draftology:
I'm not in favor of signing Manning, but I don't think you have a very good understanding of his injury. He has a nerve injury in his neck. That has nothing to do with the chances of him breaking his neck. The nerve injury has been affecting the strength in his right arm. As the nerves continue to regenerate, his arm strength will get better. The question is not whether or not he will get hurt, because the chances Alex Smith gets hurt are pretty much the same. The real question is if he has his arm strength back.

I dont know you but you also dont seem to have a full grasp on the type of procedure he had done either.

His vertebrae are fused together, meaning they have less flexibility so yes he could "break" his neck, will it be like a 180 head facing the way break? No it would be a fracture or crushed vertebrae which are just as dangerous because he can have his spinal cord severed, compacted or pinched.
[ Edited by sfout on Mar 7, 2012 at 3:04 PM ]
Meh, I don't think Kaep is the long term answer. I'll take door #1 please.
Originally posted by sfout:
You always say "this is the guy we always wanted" - What moron would ever say "no we dont like him but hey we HAD to take him".......Half the people on here believe we wanted Dalton, watch the footage of Baalke slamming the phone down right before the Bengals announce the pick. The other half think we actually wanted Kaepernick.

The trade up for a QB was done out of necessity but also as psychological tool to show commitment to a prospect, whether he would've fallen to us we'll never know what Baalke or Harbaugh was actually thinking that day so it doesn't matter.

IMHO Kaepernick will get a shot but I wont mind one bit if we end up with another QB besides him for the post Alex Smith era.


I respect your opinion. But watch the conferance for yourself and watch the NFL draft highlights. Both are all over the web I'm sure youtube is flooding with both. Harbaugh has made it and will make it completely clear CK7 was the guy. We could have went
  • sfout
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Originally posted by WillistheWall:
Meh, I don't think Kaep is the long term answer. I'll take door #1 please.

I 2nd that. Re-up Alex to a long term deal and move forward lol.
I love how everyone has suddenly become a M.D. and is able to diagnose Peyton Manning with Type I osteogenesis imperfecta (the disease which Samuel L. Jackson's character, Elijah Prince, had in Unbreakable) of the neck.

Also, I think Tolzien has a better chance of starting than Kaepernick.
no one knows if kaepernick will ever start. they hope he does eventually but smith has proven, even to the blind haters that he can get it done with that thrilling win over the saints. i think kaep will get his shot in a year or two but i dont think hes ready yet based on what we saw from him last year
Kaep isn't a slam dunk. Why do the Nate Davis fan boys fall in love with every backup?
Originally posted by nickbradley:
Originally posted by daragon:
This is going to get interesting, but I believe Alex signs for a 3 to 4 year contract. I don't really think the length of the contract really matters too much. Its more of a statement, and I believe its a statement that Alex would like to hear from the Niners.

A statement contract for Alex would be what mediocre QBs Fitzpatrick, Kolb, and Cassel all got: 6-years, about $60m

none of them are better than Alex Smith, so anything short of that would be a slap in the face.

Then let him be slapped. Those three QB's didn't carry the baggage that Alex has to haul around.