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Alex Finishes In Last Place

Originally posted by Brazilian49er:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by fastforward:
Originally posted by Shaj:
I'm as thrilled with 12 - 3 as you are. But if all of this only gets us on the losing end of a shoot out with the Saints or Packers, then our formula needs to be adjusted. Our D and ST are golden, so that leaves the offense. Alex has great ratings but low output. The question is, can his quality scale with increased quantity (primarily yards & TDs)? If so, then why not? It might get us a superbowl. It seems to be the only missing ingredient at this point.

There are several explanations for the "pedestrian" offense, and the fault wasn't Smith's alone. Let the season play out then Harbaugh et al. can make the determination on the areas that need the most attention. IMO Smith was (and has proven to be) the best choice among the QBs available at the beginning of the season to run Harbaugh's offense. One can argue that things could be improved, but the fact of the matter is it is the way it is. Even if the 49ers go one and out (a huge disappointment for me too) in the playoffs, this season has been beyond anybody's hope at the start of the season.

From the business perspective, this is like the early years of a product line that a company only expected to sell a low numbers. Therefore in risking of a huge flop in creating negative customer reaction, the managers focused on quality and produced just enough to be profitable and to create positive buzz. They surely underestimated the market demand, but given the limited resources they have to focus on the areas of strength, and their strength was not in mass production like that earlier and wildly successful Green Cheese company next door could do. This product has proven to be a hit, much better than the managers expected. Even if they don't get Product of the Year vote, they have some branding success now, and can fine-tune to ramp up production in the next few years.

I don't actually pin the pedestrian offense exclusively on Alex. Coaching plays a huge part. The big question is, are they conservative by nature (the test for that is that the same conservative offense would be run if Brees or Rodgers played for the niners), or do they not think Alex can put the ball down the field without losing games for them. It's hard to believe that the former could be true (with the Rodgers/Brees test), but I don't know for sure, and I don't think anyone but the coaches do.

Actually, there's another possiblity: check Stanford games and see how they used Luck. I must confess I didn't watch them all that much but I read many people saying that the Cardinal offense was similar to our own: power-running, play-action, using "shot plays".

Maybe someone here on the board can help.

There is very little footage of Luck throwing an NFL deep ball. Some One even said that Barkley's arm is more The NFL type.

Luck was excellent at execution of the Harbaugh offense
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by kray28:
Originally posted by Shaj:
There is a business corollary here, it's called "the cost of quality". I worked with Fortune 50 company that decide to increase their defects per million because the cost of quality was too high to achieve that level, and they could get more overall return with a defect rate that was still very good, but not as rigorous as before. If Alex could get twice as many touchdowns with twice as many INT's, that would be a great tradeoff that I would likely take. The cost of getting only 5 INT's is a pedestrian offense that requires a devastating ST and D to stay in games.

Pretty spot on. Too bad half the board won't get it.

the standard approach is to ridicule rather than to seek to understand. Just read some of the posts, including from one of the mods.

Which is much different than telling everyone they are stupid for having faith in our QB, our acknowledging he had a solid year. It's your standard approach Shaj. Go look in the AS thread, the top posters are on the negative side, like you.
Originally posted by Brazilian49er:
He is among the top in that category too. I think it is 1.2 or 1.3

Alex throws the safe pass...always. Check out some of his side line throws.

He hates throwing over the middle too...that's where a ton of INTs happen. Slants....fuggetaboutit. That's why we should be throwing at least 3-4 a game....but average maybe one slant every 2-3 games.
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Originally posted by Rubberneck36:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by kray28:
Originally posted by Shaj:
There is a business corollary here, it's called "the cost of quality". I worked with Fortune 50 company that decide to increase their defects per million because the cost of quality was too high to achieve that level, and they could get more overall return with a defect rate that was still very good, but not as rigorous as before. If Alex could get twice as many touchdowns with twice as many INT's, that would be a great tradeoff that I would likely take. The cost of getting only 5 INT's is a pedestrian offense that requires a devastating ST and D to stay in games.

Pretty spot on. Too bad half the board won't get it.

the standard approach is to ridicule rather than to seek to understand. Just read some of the posts, including from one of the mods.

Which is much different than telling everyone they are stupid for having faith in our QB, our acknowledging he had a solid year. It's your standard approach Shaj. Go look in the AS thread, the top posters are on the negative side, like you.

show me a post where I've called anyone stupid in the history of the WZ. Further, there is a difference between negativity and desire for improvement. The whole point of a message board is to discuss varying opinions without attacking the posters. I don't believe I have a history of doing otherwise.
Alex will also never throw to a spot...he's been burned a few too times by trusting in his guys to be there (so I don't know I blame him too much there). But the point is, that he's rarely going to throw a pass pattern which comes open after he releases the ball. Watch this carefully, and you'll see what I'm saying. All the passes he lets go....the guys are open when he lets the pass go.

Basically Alex is playing checkers....guys like Rodgers and Brady, they're playing chess.
Hey Geniuses,

How long has Brady, Manning, Brees and Rodgers played in pretty much the same system for 5+years (or more) that are built around them? Alex Smith does have his faults, but he is playing great in the 1st year of a new system. Also does he even have the WRs that the other Qb's have? I think it takes a long time to play within the system and get on the same level as these guys are doing. Five interceptions is a great stat no matter how you slice it and if you have the defense and the special teams that we have we trade that for more more interceptions just to get more touchdowns.

I will admit that Roman tends to play a little more on the conservative side but we are taking shots down the field. One pass to Vernon that would have got us to the five wasn't handled and another big pass to crabtree wasn't handled either in the seahawks game.

They have been getting more aggressive on the offense and hopefully that shows up in the playoffs. I think another big factor is the offensive line. The last couple of games have been much better than the previous 3. The line is still very young, but they have made huge strides this season and are dealing with the blitzing much better. All of the Qb's mentioned above have had great oline play. There are a lot of factors that go into the touchdowns. Eli is benefittting big time from NIcks and Cruz going 80 / 90 yards on plays. Tom Brady has Wes Welker. Brees has a lot of weapons. Rodgers has his share of weapons. Alexs has been losing receivers along the way and Braylon just isn't playing well. Let's see what Alex can do with a full offseason with the same offense and a coach that understands him and builds around him, but even with that being said, he is having a great season.
Originally posted by Shaj:
show me a post where I've called anyone stupid in the history of the WZ. Further, there is a difference between negativity and desire for improvement. The whole point of a message board is to discuss varying opinions without attacking the posters. I don't believe I have a history of doing otherwise.

When you say stuff like " if you think Alex did this you are delusional" is just a nice way to say you are stupid. You do it often, and you know that. You are smart enough to know what you can get away with.

Anyways, back to Alex having a solid year.
Originally posted by Rubberneck36:
Originally posted by JoseCortez:
wait. Im confused. This does not contain all qbs. What the hell is this list?

Lol, top 15 then skips to Alex bro

Lol
Originally posted by kray28:
Alex will also never throw to a spot...he's been burned a few too times by trusting in his guys to be there (so I don't know I blame him too much there). But the point is, that he's rarely going to throw a pass pattern which comes open after he releases the ball. Watch this carefully, and you'll see what I'm saying. All the passes he lets go....the guys are open when he lets the pass go.

Basically Alex is playing checkers....guys like Rodgers and Brady, they're playing chess.

Actually, Alex has improved a lot in that area. I've seen him throw before the guy breaks a number of times and I was one of those who criticized for not doing that. IF I find some coaches film on that I'll put it here.
Originally posted by kray28:
Alex will also never throw to a spot...he's been burned a few too times by trusting in his guys to be there (so I don't know I blame him too much there). But the point is, that he's rarely going to throw a pass pattern which comes open after he releases the ball. Watch this carefully, and you'll see what I'm saying. All the passes he lets go....the guys are open when he lets the pass go.

Basically Alex is playing checkers....guys like Rodgers and Brady, they're playing chess.

Crabtree wasn't open when Smith launched that 40+ yard bomb in Seattle.
Originally posted by kray28:
Alex will also never throw to a spot...he's been burned a few too times by trusting in his guys to be there (so I don't know I blame him too much there). But the point is, that he's rarely going to throw a pass pattern which comes open after he releases the ball. Watch this carefully, and you'll see what I'm saying. All the passes he lets go....the guys are open when he lets the pass go.

Basically Alex is playing checkers....guys like Rodgers and Brady, they're playing chess.

Really?
Originally posted by SDDAVE:
Below are the winners in the most INT's by a QB. Notice how their teams finished and their records. Poor Alex was last in this category. I am sure Coach Harbaugh is just despondent over this stat. lol


1 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 19

1 Josh Freeman TSM 19

1 Rex Grossman WAS 19

1 Philip Rivers SD 19

5 Eli Manning NYG 16

5 Cam Newton CAR 16

7 Carson Palmer OAK 15

7 Mark Sanchez NYJ 15

9 Matt Hasselbeck TEN 16

9 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 14

9 Matthew Stafford DET 14

12 Andy Dalton CIN 13

12 John Skelton ARI 13

12 Michael Vick PHI 13

15 Joe Flacco BAL 12

15 Tarvaris Jackson SEA 12

15 Christian Ponder MIN 12

32. ALEX SMITH SF 5

I think a better way to put it is that Alex finished first with the least amount of INT's thrown.
[ Edited by Psinex on Dec 26, 2011 at 4:16 PM ]
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by Rubberneck36:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by kray28:
Originally posted by Shaj:
There is a business corollary here, it's called "the cost of quality". I worked with Fortune 50 company that decide to increase their defects per million because the cost of quality was too high to achieve that level, and they could get more overall return with a defect rate that was still very good, but not as rigorous as before. If Alex could get twice as many touchdowns with twice as many INT's, that would be a great tradeoff that I would likely take. The cost of getting only 5 INT's is a pedestrian offense that requires a devastating ST and D to stay in games.

Pretty spot on. Too bad half the board won't get it.

the standard approach is to ridicule rather than to seek to understand. Just read some of the posts, including from one of the mods.

Which is much different than telling everyone they are stupid for having faith in our QB, our acknowledging he had a solid year. It's your standard approach Shaj. Go look in the AS thread, the top posters are on the negative side, like you.

show me a post where I've called anyone stupid in the history of the WZ. Further, there is a difference between negativity and desire for improvement. The whole point of a message board is to discuss varying opinions without attacking the posters. I don't believe I have a history of doing otherwise.


Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by Rubberneck36:
Originally posted by Shaj:
Originally posted by kray28:
Originally posted by Shaj:
There is a business corollary here, it's called "the cost of quality". I worked with Fortune 50 company that decide to increase their defects per million because the cost of quality was too high to achieve that level, and they could get more overall return with a defect rate that was still very good, but not as rigorous as before. If Alex could get twice as many touchdowns with twice as many INT's, that would be a great tradeoff that I would likely take. The cost of getting only 5 INT's is a pedestrian offense that requires a devastating ST and D to stay in games.

Pretty spot on. Too bad half the board won't get it.

the standard approach is to ridicule rather than to seek to understand. Just read some of the posts, including from one of the mods.

Which is much different than telling everyone they are stupid for having faith in our QB, our acknowledging he had a solid year. It's your standard approach Shaj. Go look in the AS thread, the top posters are on the negative side, like you.

show me a post where I've called anyone stupid in the history of the WZ. Further, there is a difference between negativity and desire for improvement. The whole point of a message board is to discuss varying opinions without attacking the posters. I don't believe I have a history of doing otherwise.

I appreciate your input, Shaj. Having been from corporate America, I understand your inference. I am new on the site here, and am shocked at the confrontational behavior/responses. Is this the norm here?
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Originally posted by Fitness49:
I appreciate your input, Shaj. Having been from corporate America, I understand your inference. I am new on the site here, and am shocked at the confrontational behavior/responses. Is this the norm here?

There's friendly confrontation and mostly healthy tension. I don't think anybody here really despises anyone else. We are fans and we hold our emotions deeply. I do believe that the fact that we are fans biases many of the perspectives, but I have my own biases as well. By the way, there's a lot of pretty smart people on this board. Doctors, dentists, lawyers, CPAs, and just plain bright folks. This place to me is like the sitcom "Cheers". We all know each other and our personalities. Moving to a different example, I'm kind of like Nixon on this board... people don't necessarily think I'm dumb, but they love to kick me around.
Originally posted by SDDAVE:
Below are the winners in the most INT's by a QB. Notice how their teams finished and their records. Poor Alex was last in this category. I am sure Coach Harbaugh is just despondent over this stat. lol


1 Ryan Fitzpatrick BUF 19

1 Josh Freeman TSM 19

1 Rex Grossman WAS 19

1 Philip Rivers SD 19

5 Eli Manning NYG 16

5 Cam Newton CAR 16

7 Carson Palmer OAK 15

7 Mark Sanchez NYJ 15

9 Matt Hasselbeck TEN 16

9 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 14

9 Matthew Stafford DET 14

12 Andy Dalton CIN 13

12 John Skelton ARI 13

12 Michael Vick PHI 13

15 Joe Flacco BAL 12

15 Tarvaris Jackson SEA 12

15 Christian Ponder MIN 12

32. ALEX SMITH SF 5

Winners of what???

Considering that the season is not over... in precisely what has Alex finished last?

How about a little courtesy for those among us who cannot read minds? Please provide better titles for your posts.
[ Edited by longtime49erfan on Dec 26, 2011 at 4:23 PM ]