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Cole: A stat that indicates the 49ers wont win the SB

How many stats indicated that we would be 9-1 again?
  • carl
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 3,754
http://www.logicalfallacies.info/
Originally posted by HessianDud:
this sounds reasonable, but, then again, I wonder where the Steelers and Ravens rank year by year in TO ratio? I'd bet both those teams are in the top 5 to top 10 in defensive TO's in the last 5-10 years. And some teams, offensively, just don't turn it over very often, no?

I guess what I'm getting at is if TOs are completely luck, then there would be some baseline that all teams would average out to eventually. Right? But I think some teams don't reach that "average." The teams that are successful year in and year out are consistently good in TO ratio. That's my assumption, too lazy to look it up right now.

For the last five years (including 2011's 10 games so far), here are the t/o differentials for three teams I picked for their "reputations" as good defenses (Steelers, Ravens, Jets). Too lazy to go back more than 5 years, but there's enough here to make the point. Also included are the 49ers.

....................2011 (thru 10)............2010..............2009..............2008.............2007..............AVG
Baltimore .............+3 .....................+7.................+10...............+13...............-17...............+3.2
NY Jets ..............even....................+7..................+1..................-1.................-4................+0.6
Pittsburgh............-10.....................+17.................-3..................+4................+3................+1.0
49ers..................+17......................-1..................+9..................-17..............-12.................-0.8

Pretty crystal clear, the arbitrary nature of turnovers. (The biggest outlier, Baltimore, averages a whopping 0.2 turnovers per game over its opponents.) The randomness is even more clear when you look just at interceptions, which are much more the product of luck than fumbles (many fumbles come from sacks, which are somewhat more predictable). This is worrisome for the 49ers, who have had some major good fortune with INTs so far. (I believe we are +15 in INTs, which is insane.)

The bad news: we will regress in turnovers. Alex will start throwing more picks (to an extent, this is already starting to happen). This isn't necessarily because he's sucking - it's because he's at an unsustainably low INT rate right now. And our secondary will not get as many picks as it has been getting.

The good news: like I said earlier, t/o differential is an overrated stat to predict upcoming wins and losses. (Despite every NFL talking head saying otherwise.) Much better to focus on point differential, which strongly suggests that the 49ers success so far is not a fluke.
[ Edited by johnnyredneat on Nov 23, 2011 at 6:16 AM ]
Suprised he didn't say anything about us having a rookie coach that woulda made more sense. That stats outta whack anyways cuz we give yardage in garbage time dumbnass.
we cannot be perfect but most stats indicate that we are a good team.
Lotsa stats bigger than Joe Montana.
Lotsa stats bigger than Roger Craig.
Charles Haley doesn't have the stat as the greatest pass rusher of all time.
Dwight Clark didn't have Randy Moss's numbers.
Freddie Solomon didn't have Larry Fitzgerald's numbers.
Steve Young was a cast off.
Jerry Rice was dropping balls his first year like they were poison.
John Taylor? Had games where he was better than Rice and would have been a #1 on most teams, but hey Moss has better stats.

There was a year a great defensive team blew out almost every record imaginable while we systematically just beat other great teams. And then almost shut out that great defensive team and blew them out headed for the superbowl.

This game is not about stats. This game is not about Alex Smith not being great all at once behind the worst offensive line in history his first 6 years.

This is a game of other things. Other things Walsh can explain.

Keep it coming. You heard Harbaugh. Media will continue to find ways. And that's how we want it. I wish there was an article like this every week for the rest of the year.
Originally posted by johnnyredneat:
For the last five years (including 2011's 10 games so far), here are the t/o differentials for three teams I picked for their "reputations" as good defenses (Steelers, Ravens, Jets). Too lazy to go back more than 5 years, but there's enough here to make the point. Also included are the 49ers.

....................2011 (thru 10)............2010..............2009..............2008.............2007..............AVG
Baltimore .............+3 .....................+7.................+10...............+13...............-17...............+3.2
NY Jets ..............even....................+7..................+1..................-1.................-4................+0.6
Pittsburgh............-10.....................+17.................-3..................+4................+3................+1.0
49ers..................+17......................-1..................+9..................-17..............-12.................-0.8

Pretty crystal clear, the arbitrary nature of turnovers. (The biggest outlier, Baltimore, averages a whopping 0.2 turnovers per game over its opponents.) The randomness is even more clear when you look just at interceptions, which are much more the product of luck than fumbles (many fumbles come from sacks, which are somewhat more predictable). This is worrisome for the 49ers, who have had some major good fortune with INTs so far. (I believe we are +15 in INTs, which is insane.)

The bad news: we will regress in turnovers. Alex will start throwing more picks (to an extent, this is already starting to happen). This isn't necessarily because he's sucking - it's because he's at an unsustainably low INT rate right now. And our secondary will not get as many picks as it has been getting.

The good news: like I said earlier, t/o differential is an overrated stat to predict upcoming wins and losses. (Despite every NFL talking head saying otherwise.) Much better to focus on point differential, which strongly suggests that the 49ers success so far is not a fluke.
I have to to disagree. TO are a product of play. Yes there is luck involved but there is more skill. I aquatint it to poker. Yes luck is there but the same guys keep winning and to a point they can live off of it. Football is a team sport therefore a slight change in team will effect the results. Pass rush goes down a bit and you no longer get ints. coverage gets worse in one spot not as many sack/sack fumble. Coach changes strategy and the whole thing can go to hell. Which is enough to throw of stats. Also you are using differential which brings the offense into the picture. Offense starts turn the ball over more, d stays the same ratio is worse.

TO is based on skill and coaching. Your stat can be thrown of by to many factors.
Weak
Stats -

Its what talking heads who can't play ball use to try and figure out who will win.

Doesn't mean they are bad people, or stupid. They are often extremely intelligent.

It's kind of innocent actually.

I'm glad they are breaking down what they cant intuitively feel.

The separation. Part of the magic of athletic talent.

Like Montana.
Like Craig.
Like Rice.
Like Taylor.
Like Lott.
Like Haley.
Like Solomon.
Like Clark.
Like Rathman.
Like Young.
Like Hicks.
Like Williamsson.
Like Hofer.
Like Michael Carter.
Like Reynolds.
Like Jones.
Like Russ Francis.
Like Perry.
Like Jimmy Johnson.
Like Gene Washington.
Like Vic Washington.
Like Forest Blue.
Like Tommy Hart.
Like Randy Cross.
Like Bubba Paris.
Like Wilbur Jackson.
Like Delvin Williams.
Like Hugh McElhenny
Like Joe Henry Johnson
Like John Brodie

Like the killer - Dave Wilcox "The Intimidator,"

People tried to ban Dave from the NFL because he was destroying entire offenses on his own lol.

Stats?

Steve Young had no stats after years on the bench when he finally took over for an injured nobody named Joe Montana. Joe Montana, of course, doesn't have the stats of Dan Marino.

If you go by stats, Dan Marino is a much greater quarterback than Joe Montana of the San Franciso 49ers.

Dan Marino certainly owns at least 97 superbowls.

Enough said.
And in fact....if you want to talk stats...Young has a few "stats" that are better than montana.

But little montana beat young when kansas city beat the 9ers led by young on the only time they met. With the 9ers having the better team.

Montana was simply "on fire" as one hall of fame player put it.

Enough said.
Stats are for losers!!
TOs happen because we have p52 and Bowman tackling not only the ballcarrier but the ball. Your watch and see more and more guys tearing at the ball more often. TOs happen because we play tight coverage and lots of balls get tipped, or just rudely intercepted. TOs happen because our DL/ front 7 have been meaner, smarter, more aggressive, ball rippers and sackers than the offensives they played against. Alex's INT ratio is going to go up because of statistics? Why should they if he continues to get good protection, is way smarter at handling QB than in previous yrs with an OC, HC, Qb coach to coach him...intimately, slowly, and trustingly. If he has more INTs, a good bet would be receivers running bad routes, dropping balls, guys missing blocks, etc. This team has been coached up against that kind of thing. What do stats have to do with any of the above germane issues. From my perspective we will continue to get more TOs, alex's INTs will continue to stay low, our front 7 are going to beat most teams OL, our secondary while not stellar, is 80% better than last yr, and continues to improve, plus it is cohesive and has a purpose. Those are the things I look at to see how we are going to do in the remainder of the season. Playing a Thurs niter after going across country....now there is something to screw up a team, giving them the equivalent of 1 and 1/2 days to prepare and practice in 3 time zones difference. And none of those issues has anything to do with stats. How about our D is way more aggressive than ever, our O while not really having spent much time together under Harbaugh is cooking on all cylinders. Now those are things to predict how what our future holds.
blah blah IDK we haven't even finished the regular season and we're allready talking superbowl? C'mon man.First finish the regular season, win the first playoff game, get to the championshipgame win that one and then focus n the superbowl.
Originally posted by JeuSF49:
blah blah IDK we haven't even finished the regular season and we're allready talking superbowl? C'mon man.First finish the regular season, win the first playoff game, get to the championshipgame win that one and then focus n the superbowl.

GO NINERS!!!!!!!!