Originally posted by danimal:
I think at the end of the day that stat shows which teams can win a game with no turnovers and each kick or punt resulting in a touchback. I think any team heading into the playoffs would like a claim to that ability....but ultimately I think you are right, generally yards is a bread and butter way to get through a regular season, and becomes kind of a circular stat in the playoffs where all teams generally have a positive stat in that category.
Now, I have no stats to back this up, but in my general recollection, I seem to remember a trend of regular season teams with great turnover ratios who lose that result come the playoffs, they no longer get the turnovers anymore. Our turnover ratio actually kind of scares me right now, without the turnovers what are we going to do?
Don't remember seeing this specifically, but it's an excellent point. It's well-established in football statistical circles that consistency in forcing turnovers is a myth - turnovers are in large part the result of luck. People may scoff at this, but it's been borne out consistently in many many analyses. The teams that do it well for any one period are simply not
more likely to keep doing it over the successive ones. When you're looking for teams that are due for a big regression, those with very positive turnover differentials are good places to start.
But before anyone freaks on me, take heart in this: what this guy Cole neglects to mention is that the best
predictor of whether a team's success is real or lucky is the ratio of points scored to points conceded. (This is actually true is just about every point scoring sport.) And our ratio is #2 in the league (+111) and corresponds to a season of just over 13 wins. So we're actually right in line with what the statistical predictors say we about us.