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Interesting Stats on Throwing %, Drops and YAC I put together

Originally posted by jreff22:
good work

I know your not talking about Alex against the Lions right?

Like my grandfather always use to say " You can't polish a turd regardless of how hard you rub "
Originally posted by 1stAndGoal49ers:
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Originally posted by Wubbie:
Well, before anyone says our WRs suck or something like that...

Some of it is Alex Smith. We all know he's not the MOST accurate QB in the league and needs to do a better job with his accuracy. It's better, no doubt, then it was in previous years, but he's gotta help out his receivers by throwing more catchable balls.

At the same time, if you're a receiver and can touch the ball with your hands, you gotta catch it. I hope this improves in the future.


I think Smith's inaccuracy is the result of the fallacy of common knowledge . You hear something so often that it becomes ingrained as the truth, whether accurate or not. Harbaugh stated Smith's accuracy as one of his greatest strengths...why would he say that if it were so obviously wrong? Watching Smith over the years I have always wondered how much was the scheme, coaching, WRs, etc.

When Smith and VD have a very good QBR together year after year I have concluded Smith is accurate when given a consistent target. VD is a workaholic who practices his routes and does a good job maintaining them on game day.

We started the year with Edwards and Morgan playing pretty well and now have played without either in a game Smith did not play well...not a coincidence. If and when we have a full receiving group for six or seven straight games I think you will see a very accurate QB.
This post screams I LOVE ALEX!

Alex has a bad habit of over-throwing receivers for a long time. Sunday was a perfect example of "ALEX"


Please Madam Zelda! Don't waste time reading my mind, tell me the Lotto numbers for this week! He does overthrow his receivers, but not every single pass as some would have you believe.

The problem is that you can't tell me whether receivers often run the wrong routes, sometimes run the wrong routes or never run the wrong routes. But you feel comfortable blaming Smith for every errant pass. He said today that some of the passes were overthrown on purpose rather than take a sack. He also said he made some bad passes. I accept that, obviously you do not.

Edit: I wish I had been able to see your post in response to jreff22, I wouldn't have bothered responding to you.
[ Edited by dtg_9er on Oct 17, 2011 at 8:44 PM ]
Originally posted by BrianGO:
If the receiver has to leap 10 ft into the air to catch a pass, obviously they can't run very far after the catch.

Our receivers have caught everything thrown at their numbers.

Simply not true.
Originally posted by Jakemall:
Originally posted by BrianGO:
If the receiver has to leap 10 ft into the air to catch a pass, obviously they can't run very far after the catch.

Our receivers have caught everything thrown at their numbers.

Simply not true.


You have a receiver who can jump ten feet in the air you use that skill every time! Redzone automatic TD!
Originally posted by Jakemall:
Originally posted by BrianGO:
If the receiver has to leap 10 ft into the air to catch a pass, obviously they can't run very far after the catch.

Our receivers have caught everything thrown at their numbers.

Simply not true.

yeah. i don't know which Niner games Brian has been watching.
Originally posted by Jakemall:
No he's not the most accurate. As of now he's #8. Last week he was #3?

How are we measuring accuracy? Through completion percentage? That's not a very good measure of actual accuracy. Accurate passers don't just complete passes, they also place the ball in the best possible place to allow the receiver to make a play. In many ways, YAC/RAC is good auxiliary measure of true accuracy when you consider this. QBs who put the ball in the optimal spot, not only get a completion, they also get extra yards because their receiver is in position to get those extra yards.

Completion percentage doesn't tell you what type of passes are being completed either. There's no differentiation between a little dumpoff which gets taken the distance versus the high degree of difficulty deep ball.
Originally posted by kray28:
Originally posted by Jakemall:
No he's not the most accurate. As of now he's #8. Last week he was #3?

How are we measuring accuracy? Through completion percentage? That's not a very good measure of actual accuracy. Accurate passers don't just complete passes, they also place the ball in the best possible place to allow the receiver to make a play. In many ways, YAC/RAC is good auxiliary measure of true accuracy when you consider this. QBs who put the ball in the optimal spot, not only get a completion, they also get extra yards because their receiver is in position to get those extra yards.

Completion percentage doesn't tell you what type of passes are being completed either. There's no differentiation between a little dumpoff which gets taken the distance versus the high degree of difficulty deep ball.


Another really good measure for accuracy is number of interceptions. Bret Favre has one of the best arms in the world but often threw bad passes because he did not have a filter to stop him from taking huge risks when it wasn't necessary.

Smith has a filter that some people think is too tight. So, he makes fewer mistakes but doesn't have the yards. Another thing I've noticed this year is that Smith is doing a good job of placing the ball away from the defender even if it makes the catch slightly less likely. The pass to Ginn Sunday is an example, as only Ginn had a chance to reach the ball.

It's a fine line trying to assess whether he is being too cautious but it seems to be part of the plan.
Thanks for the work in putting this together. It has been obvious for a couple of years that 49er receivers do not have the best hands in football. Dropped passes hurt the team overall. As a result, I would be shocked if the 49ers do not pick a WR with their first pick next year...unless there is a stud CB available at the spot. Even then it is impossible to overlook the fact this team is shallow at the WR spot.
Every game, not the Niners, I watch the passes and they are in the general vicinity of the WR and the WR goes and gets the ball. Now Brady and P. Manning do a very good job of placement as well as Rogers. But watching E. Manning and even the players already mentioned, there is room for more accuracy. But the greatest issue in my view, is if the QB gets the ball near enough for you to get your hands on the ball you should catch it. D. Walker, and Crabtree have a real issue in reference to the ball being in their hands and then they drop it. Yet they catch enough times to make it worth while. So growth on Smith and the WRs would be very much appreciated.
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
I think Smith's inaccuracy is the result of the fallacy of common knowledge . You hear something so often that it becomes ingrained as the truth, whether accurate or not. Harbaugh stated Smith's accuracy as one of his greatest strengths...why would he say that if it were so obviously wrong? Watching Smith over the years I have always wondered how much was the scheme, coaching, WRs, etc.

When Smith and VD have a very good QBR together year after year I have concluded Smith is accurate when given a consistent target. VD is a workaholic who practices his routes and does a good job maintaining them on game day.

We started the year with Edwards and Morgan playing pretty well and now have played without either in a game Smith did not play well...not a coincidence. If and when we have a full receiving group for six or seven straight games I think you will see a very accurate QB.

  • kush
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Over throws happen all the time to even the best of QBs. It's the combination of overthrows, drops and poor offensive execution in general that has everyone focused on Smith's "Innacuracy" this year.

The dude is accurate, get over it. He throws a good ball, not always placed perfect for YAC, but his throws are consistently catchable and some are brilliant. He's made some of the best throws I've seen of any QB.
Originally posted by dtg_9er:
Originally posted by Jakemall:
Originally posted by BrianGO:
If the receiver has to leap 10 ft into the air to catch a pass, obviously they can't run very far after the catch.

Our receivers have caught everything thrown at their numbers.

Simply not true.


You have a receiver who can jump ten feet in the air you use that skill every time! Redzone automatic TD!

Megatron can reach 12 and a half feet. Imagine if his jump were 10' instead of 35"?
Originally posted by kray28:
Originally posted by Jakemall:
No he's not the most accurate. As of now he's #8. Last week he was #3?

How are we measuring accuracy? Through completion percentage? That's not a very good measure of actual accuracy. Accurate passers don't just complete passes, they also place the ball in the best possible place to allow the receiver to make a play. In many ways, YAC/RAC is good auxiliary measure of true accuracy when you consider this. QBs who put the ball in the optimal spot, not only get a completion, they also get extra yards because their receiver is in position to get those extra yards.

Completion percentage doesn't tell you what type of passes are being completed either. There's no differentiation between a little dumpoff which gets taken the distance versus the high degree of difficulty deep ball.

So Both are dependent on the WRs so neither are accurate. Only thing better is to watch play by play and look where the ball is and hope the WR is in the right place.
looks like drops have actually gotten worse...although only slightly.
Originally posted by Jakemall:
looks like drops have actually gotten worse...although only slightly.


update please lol.... I understand if you don't