Originally posted by 9erred:
I am probably going to get fried for this, but I simply do not think a guard is worth 10 million a year. Plain and simple. Carl Nicks went to the Bucs and he did not much for them. Hutchinson left Vikings to Seattle did not do much there. Iupati, who I love as a player is awesome. Simply put any Guard should not command 5-8% of the salary cap space of a team.
He is under contract for 2013 and 2014. He is under contract, KEEP him, then franchise him for 2015.
One can only look at 3 year windows, they sign him now they only are gaining 2016 and 2017. If someone signs him as a franchise FA, the niners can match or get 1st round draft picks. I would take two first round draft picks and the salary cap space over Iupati.
2013- Under contract
2014- Under contract
2015 Franchise him-
2016 Franchise him.
This is equivalent to a four year 25 million dollar contract for the front office. Four years 25 million or 5 years 50 million, that is the question.
Again, I want to Keep Iupati, but this is equivalent to
Well, let's get fried together then, because I agree that a guard is not worth 10 mil. I would rather have a "good" guard at 5 mil than pay 10 for a "great" guard. I don't even think Larry Allen in his prime is worth a bloated contract.
People talk about WR's like they are a dime a dozen. This is simply false.
There are two types of "great" WR's. The good players: Rice, Brown, Reed etc. And then the freak athletes: Moss, Owens, CJ.
The freak athletes are always going to get monster contracts. There is no way around that. The good player WR's, might command a little less money, because they don't have the "flash" and "wow" factor of the athletes.
I would rather have Rice, Brown, and Reed on my team, rather than Moss, Owens, and CJ. I think people overlook the value of good football players who play WR, and place too much value on great athletes who play WR.
WR is a VERY difficult position to draft. There are a lot of flops. Guard, on the other hand; if you draft a player like Iupati or Warmack, you KNOW they will be good. The chances of a top guard flopping are small.
What does this mean? This means that when you have a good WR on your team, you have to value them more than a guard because you know how difficult it is to draft a top WR. However, if you need a guard, just go draft a top guard, because the're very likely to be good.
So basically, it's much easier to find top guards, then it is to find top WR's in the NFL.
On the issue of whether Crabtree is a "top" WR. This link: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr
shows WR's value, using their DYAR metric. At the top of the list is CJ and A Johnson, two super freaks. Other notable individuals on the list are D Bryant, M Floyd and M Crabtree. I say notable "individuals" because if you look at every other player with top ten DYAR, they come in pairs (with their teammate), and they play for a Hall-of-Fame level, experienced quarterback in a high powered offense. It's almost laughably obvious, that it is the quarterback / offensive system which allows these pairs of players to be in the top ten. Football outsiders admits that they can't filter out quaterbacking from their WR ratings.
Filter these players out, and you have 1 CJ, 2 A. Johnson, 3 D. Bryant, 4 M Crabtree. Michael Crabtree is in the top five, behind freaks like CJ and A. Johnson.
Oh ya, his 6.4 YAC (yards after catch) is better than every WR besides Percy Harvin (who is often used like a running back). Crabs YAC is better than CJ, A Johnson, A. Johson, D. Bryant. Everyone but the WR/RB Harvin (who didn't even play a full season).