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Mike Iupati

I understand that guards are easier to get then say a WR, but I believe 1st team All Pro Mike Iupati is a special talent. One that at 25 is just reaching his full potential. If you could have a Steve Hutchinson, Larry Allen or Will Shields in their prime, you don't think every single team in the league wouldn't line up and pay them whatever they wanted? Anyone who discounts the value of a guard, especially one in a power running offense like ours, please read this article from nfl.com

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/0ap1000000160245/article/chance-warmack-jonathan-cooper-merit-top10-consideration

I fully understand that we can't keep everyone, that we need to sign the two more important young players on our team to mega deals ( Aldon and Kaep ), that Crabs won't give any kind of hometown discount, that a QB needs a go to WR like Crabs and that we may have Iupati's replacement in Kilgore or Looney.....but damn, there has to be a way to keep Big Mike. He's hands down my favorite o-lineman since Bubba Paris and Harris Barton. When we go into hostile territory and need an enforcer, he's the guy that I look to, the guy other teams fear. Im not saying give the guy 10M per or even Nicks money, but if we could get him at a deal similar to Davis ( 7@37 ) and give him a ton of guaranteed money, I would love to keep him. I like Anthony Davis and all, but if it was between him and Iupati, I would have rather given that deal to Big Mike, moved Looney to RG and slid Boone out to RT. Oh well...
Originally posted by 9erred:
I am probably going to get fried for this, but I simply do not think a guard is worth 10 million a year. Plain and simple. Carl Nicks went to the Bucs and he did not much for them. Hutchinson left Vikings to Seattle did not do much there. Iupati, who I love as a player is awesome. Simply put any Guard should not command 5-8% of the salary cap space of a team.

He is under contract for 2013 and 2014. He is under contract, KEEP him, then franchise him for 2015.

One can only look at 3 year windows, they sign him now they only are gaining 2016 and 2017. If someone signs him as a franchise FA, the niners can match or get 1st round draft picks. I would take two first round draft picks and the salary cap space over Iupati.

2013- Under contract
2014- Under contract
2015 Franchise him-
2016 Franchise him.

This is equivalent to a four year 25 million dollar contract for the front office. Four years 25 million or 5 years 50 million, that is the question.

Again, I want to Keep Iupati, but this is equivalent to

I think that's a great plan, Im sure the FO is thinking the same if they can't get him for a team friendly deal. The cap figure for a guard will be well below his open market cost.
Originally posted by DRUSTOPO:
Originally posted by 9erred:
I am probably going to get fried for this, but I simply do not think a guard is worth 10 million a year. Plain and simple. Carl Nicks went to the Bucs and he did not much for them. Hutchinson left Vikings to Seattle did not do much there. Iupati, who I love as a player is awesome. Simply put any Guard should not command 5-8% of the salary cap space of a team.

He is under contract for 2013 and 2014. He is under contract, KEEP him, then franchise him for 2015.

One can only look at 3 year windows, they sign him now they only are gaining 2016 and 2017. If someone signs him as a franchise FA, the niners can match or get 1st round draft picks. I would take two first round draft picks and the salary cap space over Iupati.

2013- Under contract
2014- Under contract
2015 Franchise him-
2016 Franchise him.

This is equivalent to a four year 25 million dollar contract for the front office. Four years 25 million or 5 years 50 million, that is the question.

Again, I want to Keep Iupati, but this is equivalent to

I think that's a great plan, Im sure the FO is thinking the same if they can't get him for a team friendly deal. The cap figure for a guard will be well below his open market cost.

This is actually great because we will probably use this to get a fair deal done for both sides. I am sure that they discuss this scenario with his agent
Iupati seems like a simple guy with a humble upbringing that lives modest and would really want to stay here. I don't see a problem in getting this done unless his agent gets in the way. His agent will probably tell him we should get Nicks money and not sure Iupati who is very very quiet would stand up and tell him he just wants to get a deal done. Hopefully he does though; I don't see Iupati wanting to go anywhere else. He went to HS in Anaheim and according to wikipedia he bought his parents a home in Southern Cal after making it to the NFL. So minus playing for the Chargers it's as close to his parent and his homeland (American Samoa) as he can get. He also lives in San Jose. Of course we thought the same with Sopoaga but I think we weren't interested in bringing him back so that was the difference.
Originally posted by Gore_21:
Iupati seems like a simple guy with a humble upbringing that lives modest and would really want to stay here. I don't see a problem in getting this done unless his agent gets in the way. His agent will probably tell him we should get Nicks money and not sure Iupati who is very very quiet would stand up and tell him he just wants to get a deal done. Hopefully he does though; I don't see Iupati wanting to go anywhere else. He went to HS in Anaheim and according to wikipedia he bought his parents a home in Southern Cal after making it to the NFL. So minus playing for the Chargers it's as close to his parent and his homeland (American Samoa) as he can get. He also lives in San Jose. Of course we thought the same with Sopoaga but I think we weren't interested in bringing him back so that was the difference.

I dont think anyone expected Soap to even get a deal close to what he got when he left here either.
Originally posted by LoneWolf:
Originally posted by Gore_21:
Iupati seems like a simple guy with a humble upbringing that lives modest and would really want to stay here. I don't see a problem in getting this done unless his agent gets in the way. His agent will probably tell him we should get Nicks money and not sure Iupati who is very very quiet would stand up and tell him he just wants to get a deal done. Hopefully he does though; I don't see Iupati wanting to go anywhere else. He went to HS in Anaheim and according to wikipedia he bought his parents a home in Southern Cal after making it to the NFL. So minus playing for the Chargers it's as close to his parent and his homeland (American Samoa) as he can get. He also lives in San Jose. Of course we thought the same with Sopoaga but I think we weren't interested in bringing him back so that was the difference.

I dont think anyone expected Soap to even get a deal close to what he got when he left here either.

The difference is Iupati is an elite talent, where Sopoaga is a serviceable starter. Hopefully we can sign him, but I don't think it's wise to overspend. It'll be tricky for sure.
Originally posted by NinerBuff:
The difference is Iupati is an elite talent, where Sopoaga is a serviceable starter. Hopefully we can sign him, but I don't think it's wise to overspend. It'll be tricky for sure.

I dont thin Iupati will be difficult im more concerned with crabtree. and i wasnt comparing the two i just didnt expect soap to get the deal he did.
[ Edited by LoneWolf on Apr 16, 2013 at 3:22 PM ]
Originally posted by LoneWolf:
Originally posted by NinerBuff:
The difference is Iupati is an elite talent, where Sopoaga is a serviceable starter. Hopefully we can sign him, but I don't think it's wise to overspend. It'll be tricky for sure.

I dont thin Iupati will be difficult im more concerned with crabtree. and i wasnt comparing the two i just didnt expect soap to get the deal he did.

oh, gotcha. I think the Crabtree deal will be hard to get too. Seems like his holdout, which resulted in us getting another year with him under his rookie deal, will work wonders for us.
Originally posted by 9erred:
I am probably going to get fried for this, but I simply do not think a guard is worth 10 million a year. Plain and simple. Carl Nicks went to the Bucs and he did not much for them. Hutchinson left Vikings to Seattle did not do much there. Iupati, who I love as a player is awesome. Simply put any Guard should not command 5-8% of the salary cap space of a team.

He is under contract for 2013 and 2014. He is under contract, KEEP him, then franchise him for 2015.

One can only look at 3 year windows, they sign him now they only are gaining 2016 and 2017. If someone signs him as a franchise FA, the niners can match or get 1st round draft picks. I would take two first round draft picks and the salary cap space over Iupati.

2013- Under contract
2014- Under contract
2015 Franchise him-
2016 Franchise him.

This is equivalent to a four year 25 million dollar contract for the front office. Four years 25 million or 5 years 50 million, that is the question.

Again, I want to Keep Iupati, but this is equivalent to

Well, let's get fried together then, because I agree that a guard is not worth 10 mil. I would rather have a "good" guard at 5 mil than pay 10 for a "great" guard. I don't even think Larry Allen in his prime is worth a bloated contract.

People talk about WR's like they are a dime a dozen. This is simply false.
There are two types of "great" WR's. The good players: Rice, Brown, Reed etc. And then the freak athletes: Moss, Owens, CJ.
The freak athletes are always going to get monster contracts. There is no way around that. The good player WR's, might command a little less money, because they don't have the "flash" and "wow" factor of the athletes.
I would rather have Rice, Brown, and Reed on my team, rather than Moss, Owens, and CJ. I think people overlook the value of good football players who play WR, and place too much value on great athletes who play WR.

WR is a VERY difficult position to draft. There are a lot of flops. Guard, on the other hand; if you draft a player like Iupati or Warmack, you KNOW they will be good. The chances of a top guard flopping are small.
What does this mean? This means that when you have a good WR on your team, you have to value them more than a guard because you know how difficult it is to draft a top WR. However, if you need a guard, just go draft a top guard, because the're very likely to be good.
So basically, it's much easier to find top guards, then it is to find top WR's in the NFL.

On the issue of whether Crabtree is a "top" WR. This link: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr shows WR's value, using their DYAR metric. At the top of the list is CJ and A Johnson, two super freaks. Other notable individuals on the list are D Bryant, M Floyd and M Crabtree. I say notable "individuals" because if you look at every other player with top ten DYAR, they come in pairs (with their teammate), and they play for a Hall-of-Fame level, experienced quarterback in a high powered offense. It's almost laughably obvious, that it is the quarterback / offensive system which allows these pairs of players to be in the top ten. Football outsiders admits that they can't filter out quaterbacking from their WR ratings.

Filter these players out, and you have 1 CJ, 2 A. Johnson, 3 D. Bryant, 4 M Crabtree. Michael Crabtree is in the top five, behind freaks like CJ and A. Johnson.
Oh ya, his 6.4 YAC (yards after catch) is better than every WR besides Percy Harvin (who is often used like a running back). Crabs YAC is better than CJ, A Johnson, A. Johson, D. Bryant. Everyone but the WR/RB Harvin (who didn't even play a full season).
I wonder how many fans will have a mental collapse if we let crabtree walk for any reason....
Originally posted by LoneWolf:
I wonder how many fans will have a mental collapse if we let crabtree walk for any reason....

I think there's a strong possibility of it happening. I, for one, would be disappointed but not devastated. The extra year we got on his contract due to this contract dispute seems genius now.
Originally posted by NinerBuff:
I think there's a strong possibility of it happening. I, for one, would be disappointed but not devastated. The extra year we got on his contract due to this contract dispute seems genius now.

I agree i dont like the idea of crabs in another uniform but now having franchise qb i kind of put keeping him protected slightly above crabtree. Although it would be almost impossible to find another receiver like crabs the loss of him wouldnt put us out of service nearly as bad as the loss of a franchise qb. Who knpws though this could all work out for the best and we could all end up being shocked by baalke again in a good way.
Originally posted by LoneWolf:
Originally posted by NinerBuff:
I think there's a strong possibility of it happening. I, for one, would be disappointed but not devastated. The extra year we got on his contract due to this contract dispute seems genius now.

I agree i dont like the idea of crabs in another uniform but now having franchise qb i kind of put keeping him protected slightly above crabtree. Although it would be almost impossible to find another receiver like crabs the loss of him wouldnt put us out of service nearly as bad as the loss of a franchise qb. Who knpws though this could all work out for the best and we could all end up being shocked by baalke again in a good way.

Jenkins is still the wildcard in this whole thing too. That pick was made with Kaep in mind. If he can get stronger, IF being the operative word, he could be a Mike Wallace type, and Crabtree would be the Hinds Ward type. The Steelers have done fine without Ward and they'll do fine without Wallace. Essentially, unless you have a phenom like Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, AJ Green, or Julio Jones, you benefit from rookie salary money and move on.
Originally posted by BrianGO:
Well, let's get fried together then, because I agree that a guard is not worth 10 mil. I would rather have a "good" guard at 5 mil than pay 10 for a "great" guard. I don't even think Larry Allen in his prime is worth a bloated contract.

People talk about WR's like they are a dime a dozen. This is simply false.
There are two types of "great" WR's. The good players: Rice, Brown, Reed etc. And then the freak athletes: Moss, Owens, CJ.
The freak athletes are always going to get monster contracts. There is no way around that. The good player WR's, might command a little less money, because they don't have the "flash" and "wow" factor of the athletes.
I would rather have Rice, Brown, and Reed on my team, rather than Moss, Owens, and CJ. I think people overlook the value of good football players who play WR, and place too much value on great athletes who play WR.

WR is a VERY difficult position to draft. There are a lot of flops. Guard, on the other hand; if you draft a player like Iupati or Warmack, you KNOW they will be good. The chances of a top guard flopping are small.
What does this mean? This means that when you have a good WR on your team, you have to value them more than a guard because you know how difficult it is to draft a top WR. However, if you need a guard, just go draft a top guard, because the're very likely to be good.
So basically, it's much easier to find top guards, then it is to find top WR's in the NFL.

On the issue of whether Crabtree is a "top" WR. This link: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/wr shows WR's value, using their DYAR metric. At the top of the list is CJ and A Johnson, two super freaks. Other notable individuals on the list are D Bryant, M Floyd and M Crabtree. I say notable "individuals" because if you look at every other player with top ten DYAR, they come in pairs (with their teammate), and they play for a Hall-of-Fame level, experienced quarterback in a high powered offense. It's almost laughably obvious, that it is the quarterback / offensive system which allows these pairs of players to be in the top ten. Football outsiders admits that they can't filter out quaterbacking from their WR ratings.

Filter these players out, and you have 1 CJ, 2 A. Johnson, 3 D. Bryant, 4 M Crabtree. Michael Crabtree is in the top five, behind freaks like CJ and A. Johnson.
Oh ya, his 6.4 YAC (yards after catch) is better than every WR besides Percy Harvin (who is often used like a running back). Crabs YAC is better than CJ, A Johnson, A. Johson, D. Bryant. Everyone but the WR/RB Harvin (who didn't even play a full season).

If you could guarantee us replacing Iupati easily I would do it but it would be a risk to let him go. We have the best OL in the league and we have 2 stud, young guards. Seems pretty poor to use an early first round pick on a guard to let him go after excelling for a couple of years. While I understand the costs and the risks, the one reason why the transition for CK was so easy was due to our great OL play. To break that seems silly. While I think replacing Crabs will be tough, when you have a franchise level QB--getting good WRs seems to be fairly easy. Just look at the top QBs in the league and how little they are typically affected by changeover at WR.

Eli-Cruz/Nicks and whoever
Peyton-From Wayne to Thomas
Brady-Does it matter?
Rodgers-Doesn't seem to matter
Romo-seems to do well with any WR
Brees-doesn't seem to matter

I think Ryan and Stafford benefit tremendously from great WRs. I think CK made Crab look damn good. Something Crab couldn't easily do with Alex or other QBs. I want to keep both. Will see what happens.
Obviously our OL makes our RB and our QB better. I can see why the 49ers want to keep these guys together. They believe that with Kaep and this OL they can plug and play RB and WR.
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