Analysis of Advanced 49er stats on Footballoutsiders through Four Weeks
Footballoutsiders.com adjusts performance statistics for the strength of an opponent and the situation on the field -- it also controls for other factors so you can get a true idea of how well a unit plays. for example, they can gague how well an offensive line is playing by using "adjusted line yards". I went through the data this week and here are the key points that I see:
- Overall: 7th-ranked defense, 23rd-ranked offense, 2nd-ranked special teams. Both our offense and defense are expected to perform about the same over the remainder of the season. Assessment: Our offensive line is performing very poorly in both phases of the game, but our run defense is lights-out and we are playing very good special teams. The odds are that this nets us 10 wins and the #4 seed with a home game against the Redskins in the Wild-Card round. If we are able to improve the performance of the offensive line and get Josh morgan the ball more, we may win 11 or 12 games.
- Drive Stats/Turnovers. We're #2 in offensive turnovers, the lowest INTs per drive, but #30 in yards per drive and #20 in points per drive. We're also 25th in drive success rate. Defensively, we're 5th in turnovers forced, 11th in yards allowed per drive, and 7th in opponents drive success rate. Overall (Net), we're #2 in turnovers barely behind the packers.
Playoff odds: we have an 89% chance of making the playoffs, second-best in the NFL behind the Packers at 93%. We have a 23% chance of getting a bye and a 27% chance of appearing in the conference championship game. Our most likely playoff game would be hosting Detroit, Tampa, or Washington in the wild-Card round.
- Special Teams: 17th on Field Goals, 12th in kickoffs, 2nd in kick returns, 3rd in punting, 4th in punt returns, 31st in benefits from weather, and 6th in "special teams luck". Assessment: Remarkable improvement from '09 and '10. Well-coached teams do these types of things successfuly. Punt and kick coverage/returns
- Defense: #1 against the run, #11 against the pass, #21 in generating a pass-rush, #4 defensive line, #1 in stopping power runs, #26 in tackles for loss. Assessment: The data backs up most casual observations -- we are simply dominant against the run and we have a bend-but-don't-break pass defense. I don't know how much of our pass-rush ranking is due to the fact that there were a few statistical opportunities to get sacks against Vick that we did not land; Aldon Smith is getting better every week and will be a full-time starter after the bye week -- we should improve.
- Offensive line: Dead last (#32) in pass-protection, tied with Chicago (yikes!). #26 in run-blocking. We block better on the outside and off the right tackle than up the middle. Assessment: While our pass-blocking was just as lousy last year, our run-blocking has gone downhill considerably, and THIS IS A CONCERN. Basically, our offensive line produced an extra half-yard per carry in '10 compared to this year. But it's reason for hope I guess -- if we're 31 with an awful offensive line, how good will we be if our O-line is average?
- Quarterback: Alex smtih is the 20th most valuable quarterback in the NFL, while he has performed the 18th-best. Assessment: This makes sense - Smith is performing as an average quarterback in a system that doesn't let him do much at this point.
- Running Backs: We're towards the bottom of the league in RB effectiveness running the ball, but decent in pass-catching.
- Wide Receivers: Believe your eyes - Josh Morgan is playing like a top 10 receiver when he's targeted, 11th in effectiveness. Crabtree has underperformed mightily. Assessment: Get Morgan the ball more, get Crabtree to work with Alex Smith A LOT during the bye week.
- Tight Ends: VD is under-performing, ranked in the 20s.