Originally posted by TheFunkyChicken:
I would compare Tolzien and Kaerpernick like this:
Kaepernick
Chance of being an NFL caliber QB (solid back up or starter): 50%
Chance of being an NFL superstar QB: 25%
Tolzien
Chance of being an NFL caliber QB (solid back up or starter): 75%
Chance of being an NFL superstar QB: 10%
Now, those numbers are not rock solid statistics. In reality all those numbers should probably be much lower... I'm just using them to illustrate the difference between the two QBs. One is a "boom or bust" prospect and the other is a "pro ready" with "limited upside" prospect.
If I knew I'd have to start one of them this year I'd probably want it to be Tolzien. He looks way more comfortable right now. But I do think Kaepernick has more of a chance to be superstar player. And that's worth gambling on. Picking up Tolzien is just a way of hedging that bet.
I think Colin's # should be a lot higher for being an NFL caliber QB.
I also think you should split it into 3 categories
Colin:
chance of being a quality starter: 60%
chance of being a quality backup: 20% - I know it's weird that this # is lower but if he doesn't make it as a starter I think he's probably a total bust and out of the league
chance of being a star QB: 20%
Scott:
chance of being a quality starter: 20%
chance of being a quality backup: 70%
chance of being a star QB: 5%
Colin oozes with potential and just needs time to put it together mentally. Scott is more NFL ready but will never be a star quality player unless all the chips fall into place - supporting cast, perfect playcalling...etc.