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the eating crow for FA

Originally posted by oldninerdude:
Originally posted by BrianGO:

When dealing with the salary cap, the only thing on a team's mind, should be acquiring players at a "good" price. If they are not acquired at a "good" price, then you are not winning the salary cap game in comparison to other teams.

Anything that is sold at a good value, is not perfect. If an item in a market is on sale, the question of course is, "why?"
That is Trent Baalke's job; to find out "why?" The answer comes when the season starts, and the players start playing. Only then can we find out if the "?" players were a bargain or not.

If this strategy is not satisfactory, you have to ask, "What is the alternative?"
The only other alternative that I can see, to shopping for bargains, is shopping for non-bargains.
By not getting the best bang for your buck, you are no longer COMPETING with other teams. If you are not COMPETING in free agency, then what the heck are you doing?
Paying a high price for a sure thing is NON-competitive (in the arena of "salary cap free agency"), almost by definition, because it does not require much background work in dealing with ?'s.

If you pull in free agents with ?'s, at a good price, and they turn out to be a bargain, you have done your JOB as a GM. However, if you simply pay for flawless, proven players at a high price, you are NOT doing your job as a GM, and in fact the average fan could do just as good a job without doing any background work at all, because everybody knows who the superstars are.

Could Nnamdi Asomugha be much BETTER than advertised? Highly unlikely. Could he be worse, he certainly could be.
However, could Carlos Rogers be better than advertised? He certainly could be (just like Walt Harris). Could he be worse, he certainly could be. But overall, you still come out ahead, because there is a POSSIBILITY of higher upside.

The strategy itself makes sense, but ultimately, the season will determine just how much bang for the buck we have received from these players.

You make too much good sense!

ITA - Good post Brian
  • Antix
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 7,836
Originally posted by BHulman:
Originally posted by Antix:
Originally posted by YungAce:
Originally posted by Antix:
I think we should wait till they play some games together. All that happened is we got some holes filled. Its still all on the coaching staff.

with good players

They have to play good though.

Have to get them before you can give them a chance to play good.

My point is that its a bit presumptuous to say its the best free agency class since whenever when they haven't played a game yet. If they all get injured and don play a snap its not a very good free agent class is it?
  • mike
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 1,827
Originally posted by Marvin49:
Originally posted by mike:
Originally posted by Marvin49:
K...I hate to be a killjoy, but we do need to calm down a bit. LOL!!

I like the moves they made but there is a reason all of these guys were available for bargain prices. I think it was a good move to get into the secondary market and fill up on bargain priced players, but we didn't just get into the Super Bowl. ;-)

I hope all these moves work out, but we need to slow down a bit and see how this all plays out.

No f**king s**t, that doesn't mean we can't be excited. What else are we going to do for a month?

I'm not saying don't be decided, I'm just talking to the peeps that think we just won the Super Bowl.

Ah ok, anything can happen if we do make the playoffs lol, but I'm not THAT excited, its been a short offseason to implement a whole new system, QB situation still very shaky, the only pro bowlers we got were an aging center and a headcase WR, still a lot of issues to be worked out and this season will largely be one big evaluation for harbaugh and co. so they can decide who to move forward without next season.

A lot weighs on whether or not smith can miraculously be amazing and our defense doesn't regress(and pass rush becomes great).
[ Edited by mike on Aug 4, 2011 at 7:33 PM ]
Originally posted by obx49:
Originally posted by Memphis9er:
Originally posted by obx49:
Originally posted by NinerGM:
Originally posted by obx49:
Originally posted by RedWaltz24:
Originally posted by obx49:
Originally posted by RedWaltz24:
Originally posted by WRATHman44:
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
It is heartnening to see the Niners make these last minute moves. Adding Goodwin, Whitner and Edwards helps our team's chances a lot more in 2011 than the roster we had a couple days ago. Some notes to go with BrianGo's listing of free agent players signed by the team, in addition to Corcoran, who was also signed:

Braylon Edwards- A nice potential addition to the WR's. 53 receptions in 2010 was not impressive, but 17.1 yards/catch and 7 TD's is nice. Living in Ohio, and watching a ton of Browns' games over the years, I have to say "Buyer Beware". The kid is an underachiever, and has hands of stone. Ted Ginn hands of stone. But, certainly worth the risk for the money, especially with Crabtree down for awhile. Edwards, who is never going to win the Walter Payton Man of the Year Award, still has to clear a potential legal hurdle, as mentioned from Fox News in the story below today:

NFL free agent Braylon Edwards could face legal trouble Thursday for his role in a fight that broke out at a bar in Birmingham, Mich., early Monday, the Detroit Free Press reported.

A statement from South Bar, in downtown Birmingham, implicated Edwards in the incident that saw two of his cousins charged with felonious assault after allegedly attacking two bouncers with a pocket knife and a fork.

"Braylon Edwards was present and involved, but it's an ongoing police investigation, so at this time, we don't have any further information," the bar confirmed Tuesday.

The Free Press also reported that "privately, employees at South Bar said Edwards was spurring on his cousins rather than trying to get them to stop fighting."

Edwards' cousins, brothers Tre Lenard Wright, 19, and Edmund Jerrell Wright, 22, both pleaded not guilty Monday.

Donte Whitner- Another big name acquisition who has underachieved, like Edwards, but presents good value in this contract, especially when analyzing the Niners' secondary. Like Edwards, the team really did not have much interest in retaining him, and like Edwards, did not have big interest to be picked up around the league.

He's still young, and can be a guy who holds the fort for two years, but Buffalo fans were not heartbroken over his departure, which should temper some Niners' fans enthusiasm. A good, but not great player.

Johnathan Goodwin- As mentioned last night on the Goodwin thread, he's going to be 33 during this season, and the Saints left him to walk. He was the 7th, 8th, 9th center (if someone can verify that would be great) to sign in free agency. Might hold up two years, and the best part is that it frees Snyder to replace Rachal. Got a lot of help in NO with their two monster All-Pro guards.

Carlos Rogers- As in common with the previously mentioned threesome, not much interest around the league. Definitely a second or third tier CB at this point, and nowhere near the level of Asomugha, Joseph, Taylor, or even Carr...but miles better than T. Brown. So, another good one year signing.

Antwan Applewhite- He is a roster filler, a guy who is a team's fourth OLB. Not worthy of being excited.

Larry Grant- A big hustle guy who will compete for a backup ILB role. Good special teamer.

I get the idea that many want a collective crow eating to take place on the board. I'm not sure why this is so important to them. Some are calling for people to aplogize. Now, that is bizarre. Maybe they believe Trent Baalke is a genius, and the master plan fell into place. Maybe they just want to dismiss any criticism against ownership. I guess Trent and Jed have many relatives on the board.

Well, I can guarantee that this was not the master plan. This was not even the backup to the master plan or the backup to the backup to the master plan. It was a complete failure up front, with a mad scramble to pick up big-named players who are in the back side of their career, or have massively underachieved. A celebration for big-named guys that virtually nobody wanted in free agency is not a reason for an "aha" moment, or a demand for crow-eating.

Will the acquisitions help the team? I think so. Edwards brings a big play ability, but will also crush your heart. However, fans have to ask themselves: why was there so little interest around the league for him? The same goes for Whitner and Rogers. All of them are better than the current man on the roster,so this makes me happy. But is any a "difference maker", someone who will take a team to the next level? No.

That is my opinion.

Now, on to Taylor Mays. And... suddenly, without warning, the "aha" crowd goes defeaningly silent.


Ahh, hubris. Exactly what we all expected.


It's amazing how ignorant of simple economics some people are by saying that all these signings were not part of the "plan." When a market is over-flooded with sellers, as this year was with free agents due to the opting out of the CBA last year, it causes the market to be soft. When a market is soft, that means there are more sellers than there are buyers, so a lot of quality sellers (FA's) would be left after the initial frenzied rush. Not only that, but you are more likely to get good value, since those sellers are desperate to sell their product and are willing to take less for their services.

Whereas some teams over-paid for the services of players because they got caught up in the FA rush or are looking to corner-the-market in FA to "buy a championship," the Niners, who have a new system (HC, GM, etc.), waited and capitalized on the value left behind, thus not only getting the most for their money, but also getting players that would normally demand more in a normal market year, with the option to extend or re-sign these players after this year if they preform very well because they will have the cap to do so, since they didn't waste it on flashy names.

Signing Asomungha for a crazy price would have been "sexy," but for just $4mil more than his $12mil/year tag, the Niners got a pretty good SS, a very good WR, a very good center, a good corner, and some other important contributing pieces. That is what this team needs right now, not a large splashy name, but to fill holes and replace Nolan/Singletary guys with Harbaugh/Baalke guys.

It's never smart to over-pay someone. You have to put a value on their service and then try to get the best deal... it will pay-off in the end.

Anyway, all this talk of "lack of interest" just shows ignorance of the abnormal free agency found this year.

We were a flashy name on defense and a good veteran QB away from winning our division. Why blow it up and start over, we've been down that road before? Hell, at one point of the season last year our defense was ranked in the top 10.

And how exactly did the Niners "blow it up?" If anything, they upgraded at every single position they lost except maybe CB and NT, which may or may not be a slight decline from Clements or Franklin. Not only that, they added a #1 WR in Edwards.

What good veteran QB would in this FA would have led the Niners to the promise land? Kolbe, who is an unknown and got crazy money? Vince Young? *cough*

If you think Asomungha or Jonathan Joseph would have led the Niners to the playoffs, I think you are gravely mistaken.

The loss of Clements, Franklin, and Spikes hurts the run D. in a huge fashion, they will definitely be hard to replace in that area. The defense will also suffer the loss of continuity amongst the players, their veteran leadership, and their vocal presence that you can't get from any of those FA.

Edwards is a great signing however we still have this problem at QB. I mean really, are you trusting Alex to all of the sudden flip the light switch on and become this great QB that we all have been waiting for? I like Kolb, but I'll go with your argument that Kolb sucks, how about Matt Hassleback, Billy Volek, or even Donovan McNabb who you have to at the very least admit that he is a better QB than Alex Smith.

Look I hate to be pessimistic, but signing second and third tier players just doesn't excite me anymore.

So you DO realize that your defending players that haven't produced a winning record since they arrived in SF right?

The defense is not the reason we've been losing for at least the past 2 years. Yea, at times I wanted to throw my tv out the window because of the defense, but that's because we were a player or two short from becoming an elite D. The defense was definitely not the problem I would point most of the blame at Nolan, Sing, and #11.

Man the defense cost us at least two games last year, and our passing defense was near the bottom of the league.

Yea they might have cost us some games, but what defense hasn't? Even the Steeler D gets crushed every now and then. I agree about pass defense, it was horrific. That's why I said we were a player or two away from becoming a great defense there was no need of blowing it up and starting over.

Getting rid of Clements and Goldson would have been fine as long as the replacements are significantly better. You don't want to risk a loss of continuity for the sake of replacing a player with another player of the same caliber because he comes at a lower cost. Financially it makes for a sound business decision, but as fan I can give a flying f**k about finances, I want to win now.

I happen to think that Rogers and Whitner are both upgrades over what we had last year. Just calm down and try to think rationally about it, I know you are a smart guy, we got at least the same quality of player at a much better price, it is a winning situation. My only reservations so far are about Franklin being gone, I hope someone can step it up. I think with the signings and the head coach we have, we will be competitive. All that is left is the contingency plan QB we will pick up off the scrap heap and maybe another defensive lineman if any good ones become salary cap cuts.
Our division better be worried. Were gonna be really good this year with a talented team and great coaches. World domination can't be too far off
Originally posted by BHulman:
Originally posted by Marvin49:
Originally posted by smashmouth51:
1994 1. Picked up really good C Bar Oates from the Giants
2. Rickey Jackson Madman LB from N.O.
3. Ken Norton and Dion Sanders from Dallas
4. Richard Dent from the Bears
5. Chris Dalman from Minn
6. Gary Plummer from San Diego
10 Pro Bowlers in the starting lineup and 2 who played part time
Definitely a kick-a$$ team

1: Deion Sanders came from Atlanta.
2: Chris DOLEMAN was signed AFTER 94' and wasn't on the 94' team.

You forgot Charles Mann, Tim Harris, and Toi Cook.

Niners won that year so you can't really argue with it. But the Niners sure paid a steep and prolonged price with the salary cap hell that was just around the corner. Remember those couple of years when the Niners were paying more of their cap dollars to guys not on the team then the ones on it.

Don't get me wrong, the 94' free agency class was insane...maybe the best ever.

I just wanted to make sure it was correct. ;-)

To put this all in perspective, signing a guy like Carlos Rogers is much more like when we signed Toi Cook than when we signed Deion. I don't mean that as an insult either, Toi was a good CB in his day.

I don't think anyone we've signed in the past few days can hold a candle to Deion, Ken Norton, or Richard Dent (even tho Dent got hurt early). That 94' FA class is an all timer.
Baalke shows himself as someone with a steady pulse, maybe I dont aprove the calls but I really like his method
Why do people always mention some OL age when deciding weather he is still good or not. OL is the one position that seems to be a lot like wine in the fact they tend to get better with age. At 33 Goodwin is signed for three years and will probably play a couple years beyond that somewhere. Only Kickers and punters last longer than OL.
  • Kolohe
  • Moderator
  • Posts: 42,514
Yah, I guess I'll take a drum stick.

We still need a vet QB.
Originally posted by leakyfausett:
Why do people always mention some OL age when deciding weather he is still good or not. OL is the one position that seems to be a lot like wine in the fact they tend to get better with age. At 33 Goodwin is signed for three years and will probably play a couple years beyond that somewhere. Only Kickers and punters last longer than OL.

This. The number one players' attribute that regresses with age in the NFL is speed. O-Lineman don't need speed.

Baalke =

Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
Overrated signings. A lot of those guys are downgrades rather than upgrades. Some are way at the end.

How dare you try to take the attention off of MD!
[ Edited by Hoovtrain on Aug 4, 2011 at 8:15 PM ]
Stick and move....stick and move....same old story.
Originally posted by Kolohe:
Yah, I guess I'll take a drum stick.

We still need a vet QB.

We will get one when the cuts start happening.
I still want to know who thinks we have actually gotten better?

We have a WR who has motivation/legal issues who may or not be able to play when we need him most.

Otherwise, we have added players on the same level (more or less) as who they replaced.

We haven't gotten worse, which a week ago seemed like the case, but have we actually improved in any substantial way?

I'm glad we weren't stagnant, and relying on drafted rookies and UDFAs to take the spots of vets, but as a whole, we have basically the same level of talent as we had last year.

Meanwhile, pretty much everyone else in our division added talent and improved significantly.

Maintaining the status quo, and/or slight improvement is hardly enough to make me uber-positive.

I still look at our schedule and find it hard to think we will better than 8-8 at best.
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