Originally posted by andes14:
Originally posted by candlestick49er:
Originally posted by BrianGO:
You make good points, but this is how I remember how most of our games went in the first half.
Run run pass punt, run run pass punt, run run pass punt, run run pass punt, (2 minute drill) pass pass pass pass pass pass touchdown. Half-time.
That adds up to 10 passes and 8 runs. In this scenario, there are more passes, but it is deceiving because of the two-minute drill at the end of the half where we felt like actually scoring a touchdown.
A good example as to why stats can be misleading.
Originally posted by andes14:
Originally posted by Otter:
You wrote in one of your posts that the stats show that 1st half carries and second half carries were about the same.
What about quarter by quarter? Or better, the first 28 minutes of each quarter. The two minute drill at the end of the 1st half may have skewed the passing numbers.
2 minute drill skews passing #'s for every team though
It doesn't matter if the 2 minute drill skews numbers for 1 team or 32 teams. The point is that the stats are skewed...which makes it unreliable to base this argument purely on numbers.
Stats are definitely useful, but in this case I think watching the games provides better support than numbers.
It does matter if it skews it for all 32 teams in terms of where the niners rank in pass attempts/rush attempts relative to the rest of the league. The bottom line is we have ranked higher in pass attempts relative to the rest of the league than we did rushing attempts. Look at '09...solid squad- 8 wins, the average game being a 3 point victory, and only 2 teams ran the ball less often. Throwing a few more passes in a 2 minute situation (as all teams do) does nothing to not be able to infer what that represents in terms of run/pass ratio.
We had a LOT of WR screens and HB screens. We would start off most of the games with run run pass punt. This is because Singletary believed in the run. The formations we had practiced throughout training camp were geared for the run.
The issue you speak of regarding the actual run/pass ratio, occurred because his nimrod strategy didn't WORK. We had some games where Raye threw the ball like crazy, but even when that passing strategy WORKED, Sing backed away from it the very next week for unknown reasons. It drove me crazy.
All teams run the 2-minute drill, but we had several half's, and some entire games under Sing where most of the game was like a 2-minute drill. Again, I have no idea why Sing abandoned this successful strategy. The point is, there were large chunks of games when Sing was reluctantly very aggressive with the pass; which skews the numbers.
Also, and this is the most important point, when you have an unsuccessful drive, and go "run run pass punt" you have a 3n'out.
Let's compare it with a hypothetical successful drive, "pass run pass pass run pass pass". The second drive has 5 passes and 2 runs the first drive has only 2 runs and 1 pass. Combined together, they give us 6 passes and 4 runs. But what does the second drive also have? More PLAYS.
So if you have this situation...
Drive one: run run pass punt
Drive two: run run pass punt
Drive three: pass run pass pass run pass pass Touchdown!
Drive four: run run pass punt
Drive five: run run pass punt
2-minute: pass pass pass pass pass pass Touchdown!
Total runs: 10
Total passes: 15
4 out of the 5 non two-minute-drill drives were Iron Mike trying to impose his iron will to run the ball down their throats.
But because our running drives were LESS successful, and our passing drives were MORE successful,
the passing drives had more PLAYS.
Singletary wanted to run the ball down their throats, and his utter lack of success made him look like he enjoyed throwing the football as much as running it.
[ Edited by BrianGO on Jul 22, 2011 at 1:59 AM ]
