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We have a 28% chance of winning the division

The three-team race for the NFC West is still alive. Amazingly, the 49ers have a 28 percent chance to win out and take the division. The Rams are actually winning less than 50 percent of Weeks 16 and 17 simulations, but they are still ultimately winning the division 43 percent of the time, which is more than the 49ers and Seahawks.

TEAM WK 15 WK 16 % DIFF WIN DIV
CHICAGO BEARS 61.7% 100.0% 38.3% 100.0%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 87.2% 99.9% 12.7% 99.2%
NEW YORK GIANTS 67.4% 79.4% 12.0% 0.8%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 16.2% 28.1% 11.9% 28.1%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 93.1% 97.4% 4.2% 7.9%
ATLANTA FALCONS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 92.1%
CAROLINA PANTHERS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DALLAS COWBOYS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DETROIT LIONS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ARIZONA CARDINALS 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% 0.0%
ST. LOUIS RAMS 47.2% 42.8% -4.4% 42.8%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 36.4% 29.1% -7.4% 29.1%
GREEN BAY PACKERS 53.7% 22.2% -31.6% 0.0%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 36.9% 1.1% -35.8% 0.0%

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ys-accuscoreplayoffodds122110


I thought this was pretty interesting. A 1-4 shot to make the playoffs with only 5 wins through week 15.

I`ll take those odds
[ Edited by Dominate on Dec 21, 2010 at 9:03 PM ]
I don't think we win it. Rams could beat us. We need the Seahawks to lose.
Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
I don't think we win it. Rams could beat us. We need the Seahawks to lose.

Honestly, no BS! I think we win our final 2 but still come up short. TB doesnt look so hot of late.
Footballoutsiders comes out with their projections on Wednesday
Originally posted by Dominate:
Originally posted by SanDiego49er:
I don't think we win it. Rams could beat us. We need the Seahawks to lose.

Honestly, no BS! I think we win our final 2 but still come up short. TB doesnt look so hot of late.

They really need to win to stay alive in the wild card race. This and they are playing in TB, and have you seen SEA lately? If we don't make it, it will likely be due to losing to STL or ARI
Honestly, I think this statistical approach is is not a reflection of reality. We should beat the Cards in week 17, and the Seahawks will not beat both the Bucs AND the Rams in games both teams will be desparate to win. So the only real question is whether we beat the Rams this week. I'd say the odds of that are a lot closer to 50%.
  • SoCold
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 44,597
I think Goodell will change the rules for the Rams 9ers game
All touchdowns scored by the 9ers will be worth 3 points and fg's worth 1
All touchdowns scored by the Rams will be worth 27 points and fg's worth 15
We have a 100% chance of screwing up that 28% chance.
Originally posted by MadDog49er:
We have a 100% chance of screwing up that 28% chance.

If we win the division, we may just hurt ourselves (draft-wise) in the end. We're not gonna have a hot streak like the 9-7 Cards did two yrs ago and reach the SB. And I would be in support of changing the rules to where future division champs with losing records don't make the playoffs. But then again, that's just how I feel on the topic.

I agree with MD, 100% chance of screwing it up somehow.
[ Edited by mcbaes72 on Dec 22, 2010 at 8:12 AM ]
  • SoCold
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 44,597
Originally posted by mcbaes72:
If we win the division, we may just hurt ourselves (draft-wise) in the end. We're not gonna have a hot streak like the 9-7 Cards did two yrs ago and reach the SB. And I would be in support of changing the rules to where future division champs with losing records don't make the playoffs. But then again, that's just how I feel on the topic.

I agree with MD, 100% chance of screwing it up somehow.

No one should care about the draft they should care about winning the game
Originally posted by 9erfan4life:
Originally posted by mcbaes72:
If we win the division, we may just hurt ourselves (draft-wise) in the end. We're not gonna have a hot streak like the 9-7 Cards did two yrs ago and reach the SB. And I would be in support of changing the rules to where future division champs with losing records don't make the playoffs. But then again, that's just how I feel on the topic.

I agree with MD, 100% chance of screwing it up somehow.

No one should care about the draft they should care about winning the game

I'm not wanting them to lose on purpose, but if they accidentally win, they won't make it past first round of playoffs. That's my point, what's the use of winning the division if you have a 99% chance of not making SB?


So you're saying there's a chance?!?!?!?
Originally posted by FourNine49:


So you're saying there's a chance?!?!?!?

LOL! "What was all that one-in-a million talk?"
Wow! Real shocking figure they throw out there. We're one game behind in a 3 horse f**king race, so they give us a little worse than 3/1 lol! Brilliant...

Johnson: "Hey boss, wtf is going on in the NFC West?"

Boss: "I dunno, they all blow. How many teams are still in it?"

Johnson: "3, but Frisco's a game back"

Boss: "I dunno...f**k it, give em a little worse than 3/1 I guess. Who cares?"

Johnson: "that's why you get paid the big bucks boss"
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