So, if Alex doesn't pan out...

Originally posted by dtcomposer:

Originally posted by Shaj:

Originally posted by dtcomposer:

Originally posted by Shaj:
I have some hope for Alex after the last game. The biggest improvement I saw was his pocket presence. I think his upside is very limited, but he can be the game manager that Nolan envisioned.... kind of like Dilfer the year the Ravens won the superbowl.

I would be interested to know why you think his upside is limited?

past performance is the best predictor of future performance.

Oh ok so you have nothing... good to know.

Exactly, based on my research,your past posting in NT, has been poor,based on
speculation and your god given right to an opinion, which is inaccurate, at best. But i have read your ability in the Parking lot, and i see hope. however...

based on past perfomance, it doestn look good, but i think with some help from
your friends on the zone, with some constistancy, more instinct, and a little more accurate posting...

you could be top 15 poster in NINER TALK, i believe in you

Originally posted by whiskywarlord:

Originally posted by dtcomposer:

Originally posted by Shaj:

Originally posted by dtcomposer:

Originally posted by Shaj:
I have some hope for Alex after the last game. The biggest improvement I saw was his pocket presence. I think his upside is very limited, but he can be the game manager that Nolan envisioned.... kind of like Dilfer the year the Ravens won the superbowl.

I would be interested to know why you think his upside is limited?

past performance is the best predictor of future performance.

Oh ok so you have nothing... good to know.

Exactly, based on my research,your past posting in NT, has been poor,based on
speculation and your god given right to an opinion, which is inaccurate, at best. But i have read your ability in the Parking lot, and i see hope. however...

based on past perfomance, it doestn look good, but i think with some help from
your friends on the zone, with some constistancy, more instinct, and a little more accurate posting...

you could be top 15 poster in NINER TALK, i believe in you

Whiskey, you really sound like a qb coach now a days....

Originally posted by fly15:

Originally posted by whiskywarlord:

Originally posted by dtcomposer:

Originally posted by Shaj:

Originally posted by dtcomposer:

Originally posted by Shaj:
I have some hope for Alex after the last game. The biggest improvement I saw was his pocket presence. I think his upside is very limited, but he can be the game manager that Nolan envisioned.... kind of like Dilfer the year the Ravens won the superbowl.

I would be interested to know why you think his upside is limited?

past performance is the best predictor of future performance.

Oh ok so you have nothing... good to know.

Exactly, based on my research,your past posting in NT, has been poor,based on
speculation and your god given right to an opinion, which is inaccurate, at best. But i have read your ability in the Parking lot, and i see hope. however...

based on past perfomance, it doestn look good, but i think with some help from
your friends on the zone, with some constistancy, more instinct, and a little more accurate posting...

you could be top 15 poster in NINER TALK, i believe in you

Whiskey, you really sound like a qb coach now a days....

i was just trying to make a point your honorableness, motion dismissed

Originally posted by Memphis9er:

Originally posted by Shaj:

Originally posted by dtcomposer:

Originally posted by Shaj:
I have some hope for Alex after the last game. The biggest improvement I saw was his pocket presence. I think his upside is very limited, but he can be the game manager that Nolan envisioned.... kind of like Dilfer the year the Ravens won the superbowl.

I would be interested to know why you think his upside is limited?

past performance is the best predictor of future performance.

Not always true, people can work hard and better themselves Shaj. Take Steve Young as an example, he was terrible until he got his game turned around, then he became one of the all time greats. You cannot say that Smith hasn't gotten better every year he has been healthy, at least not honestly anyways.

Is this the Einstein logic again? Please don't make me repeat the fallacious analogy......

Originally posted by Shaj:

Originally posted by Memphis9er:

Originally posted by Shaj:

Originally posted by dtcomposer:

Originally posted by Shaj:
I have some hope for Alex after the last game. The biggest improvement I saw was his pocket presence. I think his upside is very limited, but he can be the game manager that Nolan envisioned.... kind of like Dilfer the year the Ravens won the superbowl.

I would be interested to know why you think his upside is limited?

past performance is the best predictor of future performance.

Not always true, people can work hard and better themselves Shaj. Take Steve Young as an example, he was terrible until he got his game turned around, then he became one of the all time greats. You cannot say that Smith hasn't gotten better every year he has been healthy, at least not honestly anyways.

Is this the Einstein logic again? Please don't make me repeat the fallacious analogy......

No just common sense.

Originally posted by Memphis9er:

Originally posted by Shaj:

Originally posted by Memphis9er:

Originally posted by Shaj:

Originally posted by dtcomposer:

Originally posted by Shaj:
I have some hope for Alex after the last game. The biggest improvement I saw was his pocket presence. I think his upside is very limited, but he can be the game manager that Nolan envisioned.... kind of like Dilfer the year the Ravens won the superbowl.

I would be interested to know why you think his upside is limited?

past performance is the best predictor of future performance.

Not always true, people can work hard and better themselves Shaj. Take Steve Young as an example, he was terrible until he got his game turned around, then he became one of the all time greats. You cannot say that Smith hasn't gotten better every year he has been healthy, at least not honestly anyways.

Is this the Einstein logic again? Please don't make me repeat the fallacious analogy......

No just common sense.

Steve Young sucked and then he ended up with a HOF career, Alex Smith sucked, and therefore he may have a HOF career? You call that common sense? It's the Einstein fallacy I keep bringing up. All these massive exceptions aside, 99% of the time, the best predictor of future play is past play.

Originally posted by Shaj:

Originally posted by Memphis9er:

Originally posted by Shaj:

Originally posted by Memphis9er:

Originally posted by Shaj:

Originally posted by dtcomposer:

Originally posted by Shaj:
I have some hope for Alex after the last game. The biggest improvement I saw was his pocket presence. I think his upside is very limited, but he can be the game manager that Nolan envisioned.... kind of like Dilfer the year the Ravens won the superbowl.

I would be interested to know why you think his upside is limited?

past performance is the best predictor of future performance.

Not always true, people can work hard and better themselves Shaj. Take Steve Young as an example, he was terrible until he got his game turned around, then he became one of the all time greats. You cannot say that Smith hasn't gotten better every year he has been healthy, at least not honestly anyways.

Is this the Einstein logic again? Please don't make me repeat the fallacious analogy......

No just common sense.

Steve Young sucked and then he ended up with a HOF career, Alex Smith sucked, and therefore he may have a HOF career? You call that common sense? It's the Einstein fallacy I keep bringing up. All these massive exceptions aside, 99% of the time, the best predictor of future play is past play.

Show me the raw data that proves this or I call BS. What kind of past performance are you talking about... recent past, very recent past, College? Just because you think you understand a statement doesn't mean that you really do. Here is an article explaining some actual scholarly research on the subject (this is probably the idea that you are b*****dizing)

link: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0JQR/is_5_17/ai_86042885/

Although we have all been told that a mutual fund's past performance is no indicator of its future performance, no one really believes this platitude. We don't know of any fund advisor who does not rely on past performance in choosing a fund. Yet the past performance has not been a consistent predictor of future performance.

Now comes a new study by two PhD candidates from a U.S. University: Melvyn Teo and Sung-Jun Woo of Harvard University. Here are their findings:

* On average, funds that had the worst performance over the previous two years in a given style category (e.g., large value, small growth, midcap growth, etc.) beat the return of the S&P 500 Index in the following year.

Most Popular
CBS MoneyWatch.com Blogs
* On average, funds in the best performing style category underperfomed in the following year.

* Categories that took in low net inflows during the four prior years tended to outperform in the following year.

* Conversely, categories that received the highest inflows underperformed.

So past performance is an indicator of future performance after all! If a fund does very well, it is likely to do less well and if it does poorly, it is likely to do better! So what is the lesson? Don't be afraid to be a contrarian. - END ARTICLE


So yeah... you have nothing.

Originally posted by Shaj:

Originally posted by Memphis9er:

Originally posted by Shaj:

Originally posted by Memphis9er:

Originally posted by Shaj:

Originally posted by dtcomposer:

Originally posted by Shaj:
I have some hope for Alex after the last game. The biggest improvement I saw was his pocket presence. I think his upside is very limited, but he can be the game manager that Nolan envisioned.... kind of like Dilfer the year the Ravens won the superbowl.

I would be interested to know why you think his upside is limited?

past performance is the best predictor of future performance.

Not always true, people can work hard and better themselves Shaj. Take Steve Young as an example, he was terrible until he got his game turned around, then he became one of the all time greats. You cannot say that Smith hasn't gotten better every year he has been healthy, at least not honestly anyways.

Is this the Einstein logic again? Please don't make me repeat the fallacious analogy......

No just common sense.

Steve Young sucked and then he ended up with a HOF career, Alex Smith sucked, and therefore he may have a HOF career? You call that common sense? It's the Einstein fallacy I keep bringing up. All these massive exceptions aside, 99% of the time, the best predictor of future play is past play.

There you go dealing in absolutes, which in itself is illogical. I never tried to say that success was guaranteed, I just said that your statement is bulls**t because it asserts that there is no possibility that anyone can improve his level of play.

If Alex doesn't pan out then we have crabtree, VD, and gore fly out to Steve Young's residence and ask him to reconsider unretiring. Hey it worked for the Vikings

Smith is already a bust. The organization doesn't want to admit it, so they keep him. At least the Raiderettes admitted their folly and dumped Russell.

Originally posted by LeftBankeNiner:
Smith is already a bust. The organization doesn't want to admit it, so they keep him. At least the Raiderettes admitted their folly and dumped Russell.

Some of the most twisted logic that I've read for keeping a QB on a roster.

-9fA

If QB doesn't work out, he can always play safety. He knows what the other QB is thinking, he's a good athlete, and most of all he hits like a truck.

CODY, CODY, CODY!!!!

Originally posted by dtcomposer:

Originally posted by Shaj:

Originally posted by Memphis9er:

Originally posted by Shaj:

Originally posted by Memphis9er:

Originally posted by Shaj:

Originally posted by dtcomposer:

Originally posted by Shaj:
I have some hope for Alex after the last game. The biggest improvement I saw was his pocket presence. I think his upside is very limited, but he can be the game manager that Nolan envisioned.... kind of like Dilfer the year the Ravens won the superbowl.

I would be interested to know why you think his upside is limited?

past performance is the best predictor of future performance.

Not always true, people can work hard and better themselves Shaj. Take Steve Young as an example, he was terrible until he got his game turned around, then he became one of the all time greats. You cannot say that Smith hasn't gotten better every year he has been healthy, at least not honestly anyways.

Is this the Einstein logic again? Please don't make me repeat the fallacious analogy......

No just common sense.

Steve Young sucked and then he ended up with a HOF career, Alex Smith sucked, and therefore he may have a HOF career? You call that common sense? It's the Einstein fallacy I keep bringing up. All these massive exceptions aside, 99% of the time, the best predictor of future play is past play.

Show me the raw data that proves this or I call BS. What kind of past performance are you talking about... recent past, very recent past, College? Just because you think you understand a statement doesn't mean that you really do. Here is an article explaining some actual scholarly research on the subject (this is probably the idea that you are b*****dizing)

link: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0JQR/is_5_17/ai_86042885/

Although we have all been told that a mutual fund's past performance is no indicator of its future performance, no one really believes this platitude. We don't know of any fund advisor who does not rely on past performance in choosing a fund. Yet the past performance has not been a consistent predictor of future performance.

Now comes a new study by two PhD candidates from a U.S. University: Melvyn Teo and Sung-Jun Woo of Harvard University. Here are their findings:

* On average, funds that had the worst performance over the previous two years in a given style category (e.g., large value, small growth, midcap growth, etc.) beat the return of the S&P 500 Index in the following year.

Most Popular
CBS MoneyWatch.com Blogs
* On average, funds in the best performing style category underperfomed in the following year.

* Categories that took in low net inflows during the four prior years tended to outperform in the following year.

* Conversely, categories that received the highest inflows underperformed.

So past performance is an indicator of future performance after all! If a fund does very well, it is likely to do less well and if it does poorly, it is likely to do better! So what is the lesson? Don't be afraid to be a contrarian. - END ARTICLE


So yeah... you have nothing.

you just used a highly volatile stock market analogy to debunk what I said? You think individual player performance is like the stock market? really? So Peyton Manning may have a "housing bust" performance this year? Give it a rest, bro.

Originally posted by asu49ers:
If Alex doesn't pan out then we have crabtree, VD, and gore fly out to Steve Young's residence and ask him to reconsider unretiring. Hey it worked for the Vikings

there are 3 different definitions of 'bust' that people seem to follow

#1 - a player who was drafted very high that is out of the league completely, at a very early stage in their career, due to performance and not injury - Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, and probably Jamarcus Russell

#2 - a player who was drafted very high that was released by their original team, at a very early stage in their career, due performance and not injury, and was really only good enough to play on other teams as a backup, and continued their NFL career largely in that fashion - Rick Mirer, David Carr

#3 - a player who was drafted very high that has not in any meaningful way lived up to expectations, and would have been released long ago if they were drafted in the third round or lower, but is still on the team, barely, and whose overall status as a player is deeply in question - Alex Smith, Trent Dilfer (while with Bucs), Kyle Boller (while with Ravens), and frankly everyone in list #1 and #2 before they got released.

Smith is not #1 or #2. He could still turn his career around. But he could easily fall into #2 after this year. He has too much work ethic and commitment to ever fall into #1 IMO.