Kirwan lovin' on the niner's.

I don't want to be Mr. Cautious but there could be one key reason why the team played much better:

Home Game.

We played well at home last year. I just hope the Indy game isn't an indication of how we play on the road.

Originally posted by Joecool:
I don't want to be Mr. Cautious but there could be one key reason why the team played much better:

Home Game.

We played well at home last year. I just hope the Indy game isn't an indication of how we play on the road.

easy there big fella, it was 1st preseason game. but i do worry about those 10 am games pt, in which we end up playing sluggish early

Finally people with some "common" sense!!!

Originally posted by bret:

Originally posted by juycho:
The best facts I can give you are this:

The Ravens D when they won the superbowl. I can't prove that our D is that good but I sure can speculate. We have a Ray Lewis upgrade, we have solid backups at every position on Defense. 2 very good Rookie prospects.

The Chicogo Bears D of 1985: they were amazing and very few teams could score more than 15 points againt them. We are allowing about 15 points a game as a of last year. Their leader is now our coach.

We played very competitive last year in every game except for Atlanta.

From what I see we are significantly better on D this year than last year and our offense should help keep the D rested more so they stay more sharp.

I believe we are in for a historic year lead by our defense.

I also feel alex is way better than either of Baltimore (Trent Dilfer) or Chicaogo's (Jim McMahan) QBs of the time.

I am sure you will dispute what I am saying, but why that is what this sight is all about.

Go 49ers!!!! Go into history!!!!! Again!!!!!!!!

Both those teams had better pass rushes than we have. Manusky has done a great job of manufacturing a pass rush, but it still worries me a little and keeps us from moving over the edge into "elite".

Secondly, Alex Smith is not better than Jim McMahon - yet. McMahon didn't last very long because he wasn't very big and got beat up, but boy did he have moxie! If Alex can develop that, then this team is going to be a Super Bowl contender, for sure; but that's a very big "if"!

Finally, the biggest weakness on the defense is speed in the backfield. The teams that had true deep threats were the ones we had trouble with last year. I'm sure that's a big part of why the club drafted Taylor Mays. I already think Reggie Smith will be an athletic upgrade over Mark Roman, and if Taylor Mays replaces Michael Lewis in pass situations, we should be better. But still... a pass rusher who commands double teams on every play would be even bigger!

I appreciate your enthusiasm! I grew up rooting for the Niners of the 60's. The were also-rans every year, but they were always just good enough to give you hope! When they finally broke through in 1970 it was the greatest feeling I've ever had as a fan except for the even more miraculous 1981 Super Bowl team! I think you're right, that we MIGHT have one of those special years, but everything has to break just right and the players themselves have to start feeling the magic. I think they've done a pretty good job of laying the foundation.

Go Niners!

In 11 games of 2009
NAME ATT COMP PCT YDS TD INT SACK RATE
Alex Smith 372 225 60.5 2350 18 12 22 81.5

If he played 16 games in 2009 with Crabtree (average)11(games) divided by_= _ then multiplied by 16(games) =below
NAME ATT COMP PCT YDS TD INT SACK RATE
Alex Smith 541 328 60.5 3418 27 18 32 81.5


You do the research but those are solid numbers. I see no reason why those numbers can't be reached this year If not better. That is just doing what the offense did in the last 11 games of the year. So if these are bust QB # then I am not sure you will ever be happy.

Originally posted by pdxredandgold:

Originally posted by juycho:
I think he is under estimating the niners. Most fantasy leagues have the niners Defense as #1 and there offense in the top 10. With Defense alone They could win 10 games with their schedule. If the offense does what it should be able to do. We could be playing for the NFC title and possibley the Super Bowl. Lets hope for no setbacks. even then our depth is solid, just like the machine of the late 80s and 90s. Go 49ers!!!

dreaming.

What is wrong with dreaming?

Originally posted by Joecool:
We played well at home last year. I just hope the Indy game isn't an indication of how we play on the road.

Winning by 20 isn't good enough?

Originally posted by Gavintech:

Originally posted by Joecool:
We played well at home last year. I just hope the Indy game isn't an indication of how we play on the road.

Winning by 20 isn't good enough?

Winning by one is good enough. Ask the Patriots vs GiantsSuper bowl or the Titens vs Rams Superbowl.

Originally posted by Oscar:
I think the problem here is that Kirwan assumes we will have spread packages with Westbrook and Gore in the backfield. Raye and Sing have committed to using less spread and more straight-line formations with a fullback.

If J-Raye implements it, we're golden. But that's not a guarantee.

Oscar, I agree. I'll add that if the Niners keep Norris on the roster, then Sing and Raye are thinking run first. Defenses will be ready for that. My wish is that Byham performing H-Back duties vs. Minnesota, that the Niners will be happy without Norris. During the season, I'd like to see Gore alone in the backfield, with Byham, with Dixon in two HB sets, or with Westbrook on 3rd downs. But I'm afraid with Britt Miller not playing much against Minnesota that I won't be getting my wish. Caulcrick vs. Norris is a long shot.

We're a couple of plausible breaks from 11 or even 12 wins being a reality, IMO.

What has been established

-We have an elite front 7
-We have an elite RB
-We have an elite TE
-We play in the weakest division in football. (this is speculative, but mostly agreed upon)

The "Could-Be's"

-Is Alex able to establish himself as a Top 15-20 QB in this league?
-Will the O-Line gel, especially the young talent?
-Can Crabtree become a legit #1 receiver?
-Can Morgan become a legit #2?
-Was our pass rush last year a mirage?


I think that it's plausible that the answer on each point is a positive one for us, with the exception of Morgan, which is the least important element there, IMO. If the O-Line gels, I think Alex falls into place. I think Crabtree is poised to grab that #1 receiver role, and I think that Manusky really knows how to utilize all of our athletes on defense.

So I don't think it's much of a stretch at all to envision a team where the defense is as good as it was last year, Gore & Davis maintain their level of play, defenses have to pick their poison between Crabtree & Davis, and Alex has time to throw.

In our division, that's a recipe for 11 wins, if not more.

Originally posted by LA9erFan:
We're a couple of plausible breaks from 11 or even 12 wins being a reality, IMO.

What has been established

-We have an elite front 7
-We have an elite RB
-We have an elite TE
-We play in the weakest division in football. (this is speculative, but mostly agreed upon)

The "Could-Be's"

-Is Alex able to establish himself as a Top 15-20 QB in this league?
-Will the O-Line gel, especially the young talent?
-Can Crabtree become a legit #1 receiver?
-Can Morgan become a legit #2?
-Was our pass rush last year a mirage?


I think that it's plausible that the answer on each point is a positive one for us, with the exception of Morgan, which is the least important element there, IMO. If the O-Line gels, I think Alex falls into place. I think Crabtree is poised to grab that #1 receiver role, and I think that Manusky really knows how to utilize all of our athletes on defense.

So I don't think it's much of a stretch at all to envision a team where the defense is as good as it was last year, Gore & Davis maintain their level of play, defenses have to pick their poison between Crabtree & Davis, and Alex has time to throw.

In our division, that's a recipe for 11 wins, if not more.

i think talent-wise and on-paper schedule-wise, we're 11 or 12 wins. A big hurdle to us getting there is the reality of the schedule, the fact that we travel 35,000 miles or whatever, lose a home-game, and have only two times in the year with back-to-back home games. That, to me, is where Smith's development becomes important: on a young team, even one with a great defense, to do well in that kind of a grind, the QB is going to have to win some games.

I'm not saying we have the hardest schedule in the league, I know we don't, but its one of my biggest concerns of this year.

Originally posted by LA9erFan:
We're a couple of plausible breaks from 11 or even 12 wins being a reality, IMO.

What has been established

-We have an elite front 7
-We have an elite RB
-We have an elite TE
-We play in the weakest division in football. (this is speculative, but mostly agreed upon)

The "Could-Be's"

-Is Alex able to establish himself as a Top 15-20 QB in this league?
-Will the O-Line gel, especially the young talent?
-Can Crabtree become a legit #1 receiver?
-Can Morgan become a legit #2?
-Was our pass rush last year a mirage?


I think that it's plausible that the answer on each point is a positive one for us, with the exception of Morgan, which is the least important element there, IMO. If the O-Line gels, I think Alex falls into place. I think Crabtree is poised to grab that #1 receiver role, and I think that Manusky really knows how to utilize all of our athletes on defense.

So I don't think it's much of a stretch at all to envision a team where the defense is as good as it was last year, Gore & Davis maintain their level of play, defenses have to pick their poison between Crabtree & Davis, and Alex has time to throw.

In our division, that's a recipe for 11 wins, if not more.

STOP MAKING SENSE!?!?!?!?

Damnit, don't you know this is Niner Talk?!?!?!?

- 98

Originally posted by HessianDud:

Originally posted by LA9erFan:
We're a couple of plausible breaks from 11 or even 12 wins being a reality, IMO.

What has been established

-We have an elite front 7
-We have an elite RB
-We have an elite TE
-We play in the weakest division in football. (this is speculative, but mostly agreed upon)

The "Could-Be's"

-Is Alex able to establish himself as a Top 15-20 QB in this league?
-Will the O-Line gel, especially the young talent?
-Can Crabtree become a legit #1 receiver?
-Can Morgan become a legit #2?
-Was our pass rush last year a mirage?


I think that it's plausible that the answer on each point is a positive one for us, with the exception of Morgan, which is the least important element there, IMO. If the O-Line gels, I think Alex falls into place. I think Crabtree is poised to grab that #1 receiver role, and I think that Manusky really knows how to utilize all of our athletes on defense.

So I don't think it's much of a stretch at all to envision a team where the defense is as good as it was last year, Gore & Davis maintain their level of play, defenses have to pick their poison between Crabtree & Davis, and Alex has time to throw.

In our division, that's a recipe for 11 wins, if not more.

i think talent-wise and on-paper schedule-wise, we're 11 or 12 wins. A big hurdle to us getting there is the reality of the schedule, the fact that we travel 35,000 miles or whatever, lose a home-game, and have only two times in the year with back-to-back home games. That, to me, is where Smith's development becomes important: on a young team, even one with a great defense, to do well in that kind of a grind, the QB is going to have to win some games.

I'm not saying we have the hardest schedule in the league, I know we don't, but its one of my biggest concerns of this year.

That's a great point and one of my concerns as well. I also agree with the axiom about winning being a habit, and I think losing is too. Winning 4 out of 6 to close the season when you're mostly out of contention and there's no pressure is one thing...doing it in the thick of a playoff run is another.

Regarding Alex's ability to win games on his own, I think that's what separates low level playoff teams from the big boys. It's obvious that he's progressed over the last couple of years, and has earned this opportunity. That being said, I've yet to see him thrive under less than ideal conditions. That's not to say that it won't happen, but I've yet to see it. At some point, he's going to have to win us some games despite a poor performance from either our O-Line, running game, defense, etc. We'll see if he can do that.

I will give him this though. Not many QBs have ever rebounded from being a bust to end up as a potentially solid player. That requires a certain amount of mental toughness that most don't possess, which is why the Ryan Leaf's, Joey Harrington's, JaMarcus Russell's, etc go down in flames. Alex was right on the precipice of doing that, and he came back. That takes guts, and gives me hope for his ability to keep progressing.

Originally posted by kidash:

Originally posted by LA9erFan:
We're a couple of plausible breaks from 11 or even 12 wins being a reality, IMO.

What has been established

-We have an elite front 7
-We have an elite RB
-We have an elite TE
-We play in the weakest division in football. (this is speculative, but mostly agreed upon)

The "Could-Be's"

-Is Alex able to establish himself as a Top 15-20 QB in this league?
-Will the O-Line gel, especially the young talent?
-Can Crabtree become a legit #1 receiver?
-Can Morgan become a legit #2?
-Was our pass rush last year a mirage?


I think that it's plausible that the answer on each point is a positive one for us, with the exception of Morgan, which is the least important element there, IMO. If the O-Line gels, I think Alex falls into place. I think Crabtree is poised to grab that #1 receiver role, and I think that Manusky really knows how to utilize all of our athletes on defense.

So I don't think it's much of a stretch at all to envision a team where the defense is as good as it was last year, Gore & Davis maintain their level of play, defenses have to pick their poison between Crabtree & Davis, and Alex has time to throw.

In our division, that's a recipe for 11 wins, if not more.

STOP MAKING SENSE!?!?!?!?

Damnit, don't you know this is Niner Talk?!?!?!?

- 98

Of course this is predicated on the team staying relatively healthy and no IR injuries to starters but I would agree 10 or 11 wins are realistic.

Originally posted by E-49er:

Originally posted by kidash:

Originally posted by LA9erFan:
We're a couple of plausible breaks from 11 or even 12 wins being a reality, IMO.

What has been established

-We have an elite front 7
-We have an elite RB
-We have an elite TE
-We play in the weakest division in football. (this is speculative, but mostly agreed upon)

The "Could-Be's"

-Is Alex able to establish himself as a Top 15-20 QB in this league?
-Will the O-Line gel, especially the young talent?
-Can Crabtree become a legit #1 receiver?
-Can Morgan become a legit #2?
-Was our pass rush last year a mirage?


I think that it's plausible that the answer on each point is a positive one for us, with the exception of Morgan, which is the least important element there, IMO. If the O-Line gels, I think Alex falls into place. I think Crabtree is poised to grab that #1 receiver role, and I think that Manusky really knows how to utilize all of our athletes on defense.

So I don't think it's much of a stretch at all to envision a team where the defense is as good as it was last year, Gore & Davis maintain their level of play, defenses have to pick their poison between Crabtree & Davis, and Alex has time to throw.

In our division, that's a recipe for 11 wins, if not more.

STOP MAKING SENSE!?!?!?!?

Damnit, don't you know this is Niner Talk?!?!?!?

- 98

Of course this is predicated on the team staying relatively healthy and no IR injuries to starters but I would agree 10 or 11 wins are realistic.

That is the key, methinks... I know our D can hold it's own and we all know it's our O that's suspect but if we can control the ball and generate points, I can see us hanging in there with the best of them...

We are not there, YET!, but damn I see us knocking on that damn door!

- 98

Originally posted by LA9erFan:

Originally posted by HessianDud:

Originally posted by LA9erFan:
We're a couple of plausible breaks from 11 or even 12 wins being a reality, IMO.

What has been established

-We have an elite front 7
-We have an elite RB
-We have an elite TE
-We play in the weakest division in football. (this is speculative, but mostly agreed upon)

The "Could-Be's"

-Is Alex able to establish himself as a Top 15-20 QB in this league?
-Will the O-Line gel, especially the young talent?
-Can Crabtree become a legit #1 receiver?
-Can Morgan become a legit #2?
-Was our pass rush last year a mirage?


I think that it's plausible that the answer on each point is a positive one for us, with the exception of Morgan, which is the least important element there, IMO. If the O-Line gels, I think Alex falls into place. I think Crabtree is poised to grab that #1 receiver role, and I think that Manusky really knows how to utilize all of our athletes on defense.

So I don't think it's much of a stretch at all to envision a team where the defense is as good as it was last year, Gore & Davis maintain their level of play, defenses have to pick their poison between Crabtree & Davis, and Alex has time to throw.

In our division, that's a recipe for 11 wins, if not more.

i think talent-wise and on-paper schedule-wise, we're 11 or 12 wins. A big hurdle to us getting there is the reality of the schedule, the fact that we travel 35,000 miles or whatever, lose a home-game, and have only two times in the year with back-to-back home games. That, to me, is where Smith's development becomes important: on a young team, even one with a great defense, to do well in that kind of a grind, the QB is going to have to win some games.

I'm not saying we have the hardest schedule in the league, I know we don't, but its one of my biggest concerns of this year.

That's a great point and one of my concerns as well. I also agree with the axiom about winning being a habit, and I think losing is too. Winning 4 out of 6 to close the season when you're mostly out of contention and there's no pressure is one thing...doing it in the thick of a playoff run is another.

Regarding Alex's ability to win games on his own, I think that's what separates low level playoff teams from the big boys. It's obvious that he's progressed over the last couple of years, and has earned this opportunity. That being said, I've yet to see him thrive under less than ideal conditions. That's not to say that it won't happen, but I've yet to see it. At some point, he's going to have to win us some games despite a poor performance from either our O-Line, running game, defense, etc. We'll see if he can do that.

I will give him this though. Not many QBs have ever rebounded from being a bust to end up as a potentially solid player. That requires a certain amount of mental toughness that most don't possess, which is why the Ryan Leaf's, Joey Harrington's, JaMarcus Russell's, etc go down in flames. Alex was right on the precipice of doing that, and he came back. That takes guts, and gives me hope for his ability to keep progressing.

indeed: something he doesn't get enough credit for, here or anywhere.

I'm always excited at the beginning of a season, but I'm actually a little less excited than normal this year, and I think its because we have fewer "question marks" than usual. There's the expectation of it all coming together this season, but it doesn't hinge so much on a complete alignment of all the stars, so to speak, as it usually does. I think your first post, above, really nails it, in terms of what we know and what we don't. In past years the "what we don't know" or the "could be's" were so numerous, and we were so reliant on them becoming reality. This year, its just time to execute.

And its not going to be easy. We're really going to have to earn it. So, I'm less excited than normal but i still think this can be a really special season.