Originally posted by Kilgore_Trout:Originally posted by MadDog49er:
Doing research to debunk the myth that Heitmann is a liability on third and short situations. Here is something for the critics to munch on:
2009 NFL Season 3rd down rushes between 1-3 yards
Team Conversions Attempts %
49ers 15 22 0.682
Bears 22 36 0.611
Bengals 25 35 0.714
Bills 14 25 0.560
Broncos 19 33 0.576
Browns 18 33 0.545
Buccaneers 13 21 0.619
Cardinals 11 22 0.500
Chargers 15 24 0.625
Chiefs 15 24 0.625
Colts 17 27 0.630
Cowboys 19 27 0.704
Dolphins 32 39 0.821
Eagles 21 30 0.700
Falcons 16 25 0.640
Giants 20 33 0.606
Jaguars 34 46 0.739
Jets 24 35 0.686
Lions 14 22 0.636
Packers 12 19 0.632
Panthers 25 39 0.641
Patriots 26 38 0.684
Raiders 19 26 0.731
Rams 15 27 0.556
Ravens 22 31 0.710
Redskins 14 24 0.583
Saints 24 35 0.686
Seahawks 20 34 0.588
Steelers 15 25 0.600
Texans 22 33 0.667
Titans 19 25 0.760
Vikings 22 32 0.688
League Total 619 947 0.654
The Niners finished 12th in the league in converting 3rd and short situations. If Heitmann was a problem, and blown back into the backfield often, as a number of posters on this board claim, the Niners would not rank 12th in the league, would not beat the league average of .654, and Heitmann would have been replaced. Stats LLC has graded Heitmann the best of the 49ers line for two years running in run blocking, and most 3rd and short attempts go inside the tackle boxes, and more specifically, thorugh the middle of the line.
As I have stated for a long time, 3rd and short rushes are challenging to convert. More than 1/3 of the time, they are unsuccessful. The Niners do not have a problem in this area, and the myth that Heitmann is a liability in these situations does not hold up statistically. It is an unfair, biased position held by those who do not understand the game very well.
49ers and NFL 3rd down short yardage rush conversion chart
Throw out the data for a minute. How awful has our running been game the past few seasons in short yardage situations? As fans who watch the games we know we have been worse than most NFL teams. We play in a bad division with weak defenses and frequently we can't even get it done against them. Throw out the data, and trust your eyes.
It only appears to be a problem. And, that incorrect perception has made too many board members believe that the team is deficient in this area. We are not. The Niners DO NOT have a short yardage problem in rushing the ball, when compared to the rest of the league.
Trust me, I see nearly every NFL game every week, and see this challenge for all offenses and all centers. That is how I know that Heitmann is not a problem. The stats back that up.
[ Edited by MadDog49er on Aug 20, 2010 at 14:30:29 ]