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Falling in love with their own draft picks

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Originally posted by Pick6:
Originally posted by Mookster:
I had written a few posts comparing the pre to post Mccloughan rosters a couple of years ago as well as seeing a couple of articles written on the subject. At the time I wouldn't have said we were hands down better, now I believe we are but by no means have we progressed as far as we should have over the past 6 years.

Personally I don't think McCloughan is a good judge of draft talent at all. Yes we got Willis, Gore, Staley and Vernon Davis. These are by far the best draft choices we've made in the past 7 years. Throw in Crabtree, who we got because Al Davis is Al Davis and we've had 5 prowbowl or potential probowl picks. 5. Over 7 years. To me that's scary.
Then look at what we did draft with high picks: Balmer- 1st round with no need, Rachal - 2nd round Guard with limited upside, Reggie Smith - 3rd round back up with 7 tackles over 2 seasons, Cody Wallace - 4th round barely played in 2 years, Jason Hill 3rd round barely played in 3 years, Manny Lawson 1st round never lived up to hype, Brandon Williams 3rd round - gone, Michael Robinson, 4th round good special teams but little other contribution and a project player at best, David Baas, 2nd round Guard, limited playing time and questionable results, Adam Snyder 3rd round..... it's a pretty big list!

I am not saying that I expect every 1st to 3rd round pick has to go to the pro bowl, far from it. What I am saying is that when comperd to other teams we have not fared as well with our high draft picks. We've wasted opportunity by drafting projects, players with limited upside, injury history or in positions without need. Not good for a team with little talent to begin with!

Of course player development plays a huge part in this process and this in an area where Nolan was particularly disasterous! We have probably done less to develop talent than any other team. As examples take a look at Davis, Haralson, Goldson and even Franklin who blossomed once Nolan was gone. At least that nightmare is over! I even hold out hope for Alex Smith now that the worst coach in 9er history is out the door.

Now look at this years QB move..... why the crap would McCloughan go after David Carr? At best he's a failed journeyman at worst he's a poor insurance policy against Alex Smith. To me, above all else, this is why McCloughan was fired. One more stupid FA move that wasn't well thought out, cost to much and limited our ability to grab talent that would help the team.



Originally posted by kem99:
The entire premise of the article is flawed. In support of the premise, they point to Smiley, Kosier and Dahl. Its not a question of falling in love with their draft picks as to those 3, its a question of the position they play, Guard, which, for better or worse, the 49ers have not valued highly. Certainly in Smiley's case, it wasn't that the 49ers did not want to keep him, they just did not want to pay what he could get on the open market, which as I recall was pretty much the sentiment of the majority of the fan base as well. I also don't recall too many people shedding any tears about Kosier or Dahl leaving. Both have become good solid NFL players but their loss is hardly why the 49ers have struggled. Moreover, the 49ers have spent money and gone into free agency -- Clements, Lewis, J. Smith, L. Allen, Bruce, etc. They also made a run at A. Thomas when he was a free agent but he decided to go to NE for what was reported as less money.

The teams in this league that are good year in and year out do it through the draft and then supplement with free agency and/or the occasional trade. How often to the Colts sign a big name free agent? Its pretty rare. They develop and keep their own players and if/when one goes into free agency, they usually replace from within if the price is going to be too high.

The real reason the 49ers have struggled in recent years is because of (1) having to build from the worst roster in the league when Nolan took over; and (2) poor or inconsistent play at QB. The roster is in better shape now and seems to be heading in the right direction because of the past 49er drafts and FA signings. QB remains a question but some answers will come in 2010 with Alex Smith's last (and best) chance to show whether he can be "the man" or whether the 49ers need to look elsewhere, whether that's Nate Davis, Carr, possibly Clausen if he falls into their laps or a FA or drafted QB in 2011.

5 Pro Bowl players in 7 years is scary GOOD. Seriously... I may be way off, but I'm guessing that very few if any teams have drafted 5 pb's in a seven year span. Did Justin Smiley make a pb with the Dolphins? that would be 6 pro bowlers in 7 years drafted by the 9ers. I just did a quick scan of Patriot draft picks... 5, maybe 6 pro bowlers in the last 7 years. Same thing for the Colts. According to that PFW report the average is 2 pro bowlers in 5 years.

It amazes that people expect drafts to result in multiple great players. Look at some of the other teams drafts... last year the Pats had 4 second round picks, and 2 third round picks... 0 starters, and only 2 players show up on their two deep.

Team building goal isn't to have individuals who go to the pro bowl. It should be about building a balanced roster of players that compliment each other within a specific style of play in order to win games.

The 49ers have lacked vision on what kind of roster they are trying to build, and what kind of offense & defense they want to run that determine what players to select. That is why they haven't won, despite selecting a number of pro bowl caliber players.
Originally posted by Memphis9er:
We sure have our fair share of b***hy whiny fans that are in love with their own limited understanding of football and the mechanics of it. Some of you guys should stick to the kind of football you understand...Madden.

Gotta love it when some smug poster decides to drop a post questioning the football intelligence of others, especially when, up to that point, nobody had said anything to validate his opinion.

Good job.

Also, I'm still waiting for the day when the lame ass Madden jokes and insults disappear.
  • susweel
  • Hall of Nepal
  • Posts: 120,278
Originally posted by 49erRider:
Originally posted by Memphis9er:
We sure have our fair share of b***hy whiny fans that are in love with their own limited understanding of football and the mechanics of it. Some of you guys should stick to the kind of football you understand...Madden.

Gotta love it when some smug poster decides to drop a post questioning the football intelligence of others, especially when, up to that point, nobody had said anything to validate his opinion.

Good job.

Also, I'm still waiting for the day when the lame ass Madden jokes and insults disappear.

I agree.

Questioning anything with the niners is considered b***hing and whinning according to Memphis.
Originally posted by susweel:
Originally posted by 49erRider:
Originally posted by Memphis9er:
We sure have our fair share of b***hy whiny fans that are in love with their own limited understanding of football and the mechanics of it. Some of you guys should stick to the kind of football you understand...Madden.

Gotta love it when some smug poster decides to drop a post questioning the football intelligence of others, especially when, up to that point, nobody had said anything to validate his opinion.

Good job.

Also, I'm still waiting for the day when the lame ass Madden jokes and insults disappear.

I agree.

Questioning anything with the niners is considered b***hing and whinning according to Memphis.

Don't get me wrong, I do notice a whole lot of b*tching and whining on here, but not in this particular thread up to the point of his post. What's funny is he insisted on questioning other people's knowledge simply because they were questioning the things this team has done and continues to do. If this team did everything right, we'd be winning championships every year. Instead, we've failed to make the playoffs for the last 7 seasons. So who's understanding of football should really be in question here?

I just find a false sense of supremacy to be both amusing and annoying at the same time.
Originally posted by 49erRider:
Originally posted by susweel:
Originally posted by 49erRider:
Originally posted by Memphis9er:
We sure have our fair share of b***hy whiny fans that are in love with their own limited understanding of football and the mechanics of it. Some of you guys should stick to the kind of football you understand...Madden.

Gotta love it when some smug poster decides to drop a post questioning the football intelligence of others, especially when, up to that point, nobody had said anything to validate his opinion.

Good job.

Also, I'm still waiting for the day when the lame ass Madden jokes and insults disappear.

I agree.

Questioning anything with the niners is considered b***hing and whinning according to Memphis.

Don't get me wrong, I do notice a whole lot of b*tching and whining on here, but not in this particular thread up to the point of his post. What's funny is he insisted on questioning other people's knowledge simply because they were questioning the things this team has done and continues to do. If this team did everything right, we'd be winning championships every year. Instead, we've failed to make the playoffs for the last 7 seasons. So who's understanding of football should really be in question here?

I just find a false sense of supremacy to be both amusing and annoying at the same time.

Well said.
  • Pick6
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 640
Originally posted by djfullshred:
Originally posted by Pick6:
Originally posted by Mookster:
I had written a few posts comparing the pre to post Mccloughan rosters a couple of years ago as well as seeing a couple of articles written on the subject. At the time I wouldn't have said we were hands down better, now I believe we are but by no means have we progressed as far as we should have over the past 6 years.

Personally I don't think McCloughan is a good judge of draft talent at all. Yes we got Willis, Gore, Staley and Vernon Davis. These are by far the best draft choices we've made in the past 7 years. Throw in Crabtree, who we got because Al Davis is Al Davis and we've had 5 prowbowl or potential probowl picks. 5. Over 7 years. To me that's scary.
Then look at what we did draft with high picks: Balmer- 1st round with no need, Rachal - 2nd round Guard with limited upside, Reggie Smith - 3rd round back up with 7 tackles over 2 seasons, Cody Wallace - 4th round barely played in 2 years, Jason Hill 3rd round barely played in 3 years, Manny Lawson 1st round never lived up to hype, Brandon Williams 3rd round - gone, Michael Robinson, 4th round good special teams but little other contribution and a project player at best, David Baas, 2nd round Guard, limited playing time and questionable results, Adam Snyder 3rd round..... it's a pretty big list!

I am not saying that I expect every 1st to 3rd round pick has to go to the pro bowl, far from it. What I am saying is that when comperd to other teams we have not fared as well with our high draft picks. We've wasted opportunity by drafting projects, players with limited upside, injury history or in positions without need. Not good for a team with little talent to begin with!

Of course player development plays a huge part in this process and this in an area where Nolan was particularly disasterous! We have probably done less to develop talent than any other team. As examples take a look at Davis, Haralson, Goldson and even Franklin who blossomed once Nolan was gone. At least that nightmare is over! I even hold out hope for Alex Smith now that the worst coach in 9er history is out the door.

Now look at this years QB move..... why the crap would McCloughan go after David Carr? At best he's a failed journeyman at worst he's a poor insurance policy against Alex Smith. To me, above all else, this is why McCloughan was fired. One more stupid FA move that wasn't well thought out, cost to much and limited our ability to grab talent that would help the team.



Originally posted by kem99:
The entire premise of the article is flawed. In support of the premise, they point to Smiley, Kosier and Dahl. Its not a question of falling in love with their draft picks as to those 3, its a question of the position they play, Guard, which, for better or worse, the 49ers have not valued highly. Certainly in Smiley's case, it wasn't that the 49ers did not want to keep him, they just did not want to pay what he could get on the open market, which as I recall was pretty much the sentiment of the majority of the fan base as well. I also don't recall too many people shedding any tears about Kosier or Dahl leaving. Both have become good solid NFL players but their loss is hardly why the 49ers have struggled. Moreover, the 49ers have spent money and gone into free agency -- Clements, Lewis, J. Smith, L. Allen, Bruce, etc. They also made a run at A. Thomas when he was a free agent but he decided to go to NE for what was reported as less money.

The teams in this league that are good year in and year out do it through the draft and then supplement with free agency and/or the occasional trade. How often to the Colts sign a big name free agent? Its pretty rare. They develop and keep their own players and if/when one goes into free agency, they usually replace from within if the price is going to be too high.

The real reason the 49ers have struggled in recent years is because of (1) having to build from the worst roster in the league when Nolan took over; and (2) poor or inconsistent play at QB. The roster is in better shape now and seems to be heading in the right direction because of the past 49er drafts and FA signings. QB remains a question but some answers will come in 2010 with Alex Smith's last (and best) chance to show whether he can be "the man" or whether the 49ers need to look elsewhere, whether that's Nate Davis, Carr, possibly Clausen if he falls into their laps or a FA or drafted QB in 2011.

5 Pro Bowl players in 7 years is scary GOOD. Seriously... I may be way off, but I'm guessing that very few if any teams have drafted 5 pb's in a seven year span. Did Justin Smiley make a pb with the Dolphins? that would be 6 pro bowlers in 7 years drafted by the 9ers. I just did a quick scan of Patriot draft picks... 5, maybe 6 pro bowlers in the last 7 years. Same thing for the Colts. According to that PFW report the average is 2 pro bowlers in 5 years.

It amazes that people expect drafts to result in multiple great players. Look at some of the other teams drafts... last year the Pats had 4 second round picks, and 2 third round picks... 0 starters, and only 2 players show up on their two deep.

Team building goal isn't to have individuals who go to the pro bowl. It should be about building a balanced roster of players that compliment each other within a specific style of play in order to win games.

The 49ers have lacked vision on what kind of roster they are trying to build, and what kind of offense & defense they want to run that determine what players to select. That is why they haven't won, despite selecting a number of pro bowl caliber players.

I'll agree with that. I think the main problem there was Nolan and his infatuation with projects... how many guys did he draft with the intention of switching positions? Throw in the switch from 4-3 to 3-4, philosophical differences in coaching staff and front offfice and the rotating door at OC and it's a wonder anyone on this team fits. Ta Da - back to the old issue of STABILITY... which is what this organization has lacked ever since York decided to can Mooch after a PLAYOFF LOSS. Yes a playoff loss... remember when we used to make the playoffs? - sad there are fans 10 -18 yrs old who have probably NEVER seen the 9ers in the playoffs... WOW... thats disturbing. Thank God for the NFL network.

Overall there is way more TALENT on this roster than there was when McNolan came in - there has to be that was one of (if not the) least talented teams ever. 0-16 Lions probably had more talent. Talent wise I believe we are in the upper third of the NFL. Now we need some stability within the organization and coaching staff so that we aren't constantly changing our philosophy. I guess thats one thing you can give to Al Davis - the dude is out of his mind, but the teams philosophy is his, so it has never changed.
Originally posted by 49erRider:
Originally posted by Memphis9er:
We sure have our fair share of b***hy whiny fans that are in love with their own limited understanding of football and the mechanics of it. Some of you guys should stick to the kind of football you understand...Madden.

Gotta love it when some smug poster decides to drop a post questioning the football intelligence of others, especially when, up to that point, nobody had said anything to validate his opinion.

Good job.

Also, I'm still waiting for the day when the lame ass Madden jokes and insults disappear.

Well if the shoe fits...
  • bret
  • Veteran
  • Posts: 1,167
Originally posted by kem99:
Originally posted by bret:
Originally posted by kem99:
The teams in this league that are good year in and year out do it through the draft and then supplement with free agency and/or the occasional trade. How often to the Colts sign a big name free agent? Its pretty rare. They develop and keep their own players and if/when one goes into free agency, they usually replace from within if the price is going to be too high.

But his premise was that teams like the Colts find better talent to develop! Your argument about the Colts reinforces his point!

If none of our free agents make our roster, but several do every year with the Colts and the Patriots and the Eagles, etc., maybe they're doing something right that we're not doing. And maybe that something is giving too much credit to our draftees because we drafted them and not enough to free agents who showed up to play! It does kind of explain why we have drafted so many starters and yet are still mediocre!

No, I did not reinforce his point. None of the 49ers free agents make their roster? Clements, Lewis, Justin Smith, Norris, D. Evans, Spikes, Strickland, Bly, L. Allen, Franklin, W. Harris, S. Hill, Bruce, etc. during the years spanning the Nolan -- McCloughan regime. And, that does not even count A. Brooks, who they not only brought in but developed from an ILB to a pass rush end. Exactly what free agents are not making the roster that would have been better than the draft picks that did make the roster?

The article is not only flawed in that the examples given of players the 49ers let get away were all Guards (much less ignoring that Smiley was a high draft pick) but it also ignores the real reason why the Colts, Pats and Eagles have been consistently good...its called Manning, Brady and McNabb.

You DO miss the point! The article was talking about the good teams signing undrafted rookie free agents, NOT high priced veteran unrestricted free agents. They are two different things entirely. How many undrafted rookie free agents have made our team and been actual contributors in the last 5 years? None!

Successful teams develop some of these kinds of players! But we keep Coffee no matter how poorly he shows BECAUSE HE WAS DRAFTED! Smiley wasn't re-upped because Baas was drafted (so was Smiley, but by he previous regime). Now if Baas had been an upgrade, that would have been one thing; but he's not. And THAT was the point of the article!

They let players like Kosier and Dahl go because they weren't chosen by this management team, and they kept Snyder instead. But Snyder hasn't actually proven to be better. This is what is meant by "falling in love with your own draft picks". Get it?!
I think this article jumps to conclusions and while there may be a little bit of truth to it, it's pretty much a negative version of this article: Draft record in the McC years

First of all, the original article's data starts a year before McCloughan was making decisions. If you look at the years he was in charge, which the article I linked does, the Niners have drafted more starters (whether on the Niners or not) than any team in the NFL. Given, this also has to do with the state of the Niners personnel in '05 and also could partially be labeled as "falling in love with their own draft picks," but the niners were also one of I think 7 teams to draft multiple pro-bowlers in the time-span and the players that are starters on the niners would likely all be starters in the league had they not been held by the Niners. If you look pre-McCloughan, the Niners have 3 drafted players starting vs a league avg of 3.7, which shows it's about avg., not an aversion to players drafted by other people.
The roster went from horrible to good under McCloughan, and he deserves some credit.
[ Edited by mug0mug on Apr 15, 2010 at 7:44 PM ]
Doesn't every team fall in love with their draft picks? They always say that was the player they were targeting when they pick someone. They are not going to say, "Man I just loved who the Colts(or whomever) drafted, our draft really sucked in comparison. No team will admit to reaching for a certain player.

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